Stock is now down 30 cents. My guess is it will be down 1-2% tomorrow. Wall Street is convinced iPhone is doomed and there is nothing Apple can report or Tim can say that will change their minds.
That's my guess as well. Currency headwinds tempering guidance.
But I still think we'll get gradual sh price increase to 125 by Dec.
Especially as iPad Pro, ATV as well as strong iPhone sales comes to media.
I just don't think the market will stay out of AAPL for too much longer, though maybe enough powder for one more take down before a rise?
I'd bet that if iPad sales were down just 10% vs the 23%, the stock would be up several percent right now.
Yet not one question on the conference call was about iPads. So I don't buy that. Again I think Wall Street is convinced Apple played its last card with iPhone (larger screen) and there's no growth left.
I think you guys are overdoing it a bit. Apple's stock went up a lot because sales went up a lot. As sales seem to be flattening, and iPad sales continue to drop a lot, they're going to be wary. Let's try to avoid shrill reasoning for them.
Sales are up almost a quarter YoY- sorry, but how the hell do you see that as "flattening", especially for a company that sells hundreds of millions of devices a year and is worth almost a trillion dollars? There's nothing "flat" about any of their numbers. Apple is the only company on earth that is EXPECTED to crush all their previous records every quarter, and even when they do, it's like "meh, I guess they'll survive another few months", and people like you that define sales as "flat".
But it was up 3% at one point. What growth did Microsoft forecast compared to the same quarter last year? Same question for Google and Amazon.
That always happens. The first few drive the stock up. If its a really good quarter, the stock drifts upward as the evening goes by. But while this was another record quarter, tPad sales, and next quarter's guidance bothered them. look, I get it. It bothers me too, and it should bother you as well. When sales are estimated to be close to flat, then they're also close to a drop.
I think you guys are overdoing it a bit. Apple's stock went up a lot because sales went up a lot. As sales seem to be flattening, and iPad sales continue to drop a lot, they're going to be wary. Let's try to avoid shrill reasoning for them.
If Amazon/Google stop doing their diversified projects and stop spending money on them, they can easily boost their net profit to multi-billion dollars.
They keep spending more money in other areas. They have continued high growth expectation down the road (2-5 years), which helps keep their valuation at high level.
For Apple, I guess iCar has to become reality for further major growth.
The revenue growth outside of China is only 18%, iPad sales are down over 20%. The guidance for the next quarter is barely above the last year actual results. While Apple is known to give a very conservative guidance, still considering Apple valuation, there is simply not enough momentum to push the stock further up. Aside from China, the momentum is not there anymore.
So Apple fanatics, call me all you want, but AAPL ain't AMZN. The latter innovates. The former buys back its shares to prop the stock up.
Sales are up almost a quarter YoY- sorry, but how the hell do you see that as "flattening", especially for a company that sells hundreds of millions of devices a year and is worth almost a trillion dollars? There's nothing "flat" about any of their numbers.
Mac Sales up just 3.3%.
iPad sales down 23%.
Next quarter's guidance 4%, though Cook said that it was actually between 8-10%. I suppose he's talking around the currency headwind.
But that's ptetty much flat overall from last year's december quarter.
If Amazon/Google stop doing their diversified projects and stop spending money on them, they can easily boost their net profit to multi-billion dollars.
They keep spending more money in other areas. They have continued high growth expectation down the road (2-5 years), which helps keep their valuation at high level.
For Apple, I guess iCar has to become reality for further major growth.
Don't bet on it. The day the Apple Car is announced, it'll be "APPLE STRUGGLES TO ENTER NEW MARKETS" and "APPLE EXPECTED TO FAIL SPECTACULARLY ON DESPERATE LAST-DITCH ATTEMPT AT GROWTH".
Don't care what WallStreet thinks. They're a bunch of monkeys anyway. Isn't going to make any difference in how Apple is run (hopefully Tim doesn't really pay attention to those clowns).
Apple is doing well financially, but from a real business point of view (as in practical product manufacturing and user adoption) there are some concerns, including the misses with 16GB iPhones, new AppleTVs without 4k support, iMacs with 5400rpm drives, neutering the Mac mini, no updates to MacPro in years (again), no dedicated GPUs in MacBook Pros (except a single model at the highest end), etc.
And the significant slide in iPad sales is a very real concern too. I think that can be attributed to a lack of updates/new features (same iPad Air 2 anyone?), but also more importantly is that there has been no real progress on making iOS content CREATION friendly. You can't continue to hide the file system and provide effectively no I/O on the device (among other things) and have the iPad taken seriously as a real tool for real work.
While I don't care what WallStreet thinks, these very real real-world issues probably are reflected in their stock valuation.
Mac Sales up just 3.3%.
iPad sales down 23%.
Next quarter's guidance 4%, though Cook said that it was actually between 8-10%. I suppose he's talking around the currency headwind.
But that's ptetty much flat overall from last year's december quarter.
What do you mean "just" 3.3% for Macs? The Septemner quarter is seasonally Apple's weakest quarter. We'pre people actually expecting huge YOY Mac growth? Also on the call Tim Cook said Apple was expecting iPhone unit growth in the December quarter.
If Amazon/Google stop doing their diversified projects and stop spending money on them, they can easily boost their net profit to multi-billion dollars.
They keep spending more money in other areas. They have continued high growth expectation down the road (2-5 years), which helps keep their valuation at high level.
For Apple, I guess iCar has to become reality for further major growth.
Look at Apple's size. While they can still have a LOT of growth, it's slowing down next year. Maybe the year after, it will move up again with a completely new phone.
But Apple can't do to much with computers, as much of the advances depend on Intel's chips. I would have bought new iMacs for my wife and daughter last year, but they weren't great. So, I'm buying them now.
Don't care what WallStreet thinks. They're a bunch of monkeys anyway. Isn't going to make any difference in how Apple is run (hopefully Tim doesn't really pay attention to those clowns).
Apple is doing well financially, but from a real business point of view (as in practical product manufacturing and user adoption) there are some concerns, including the misses with 16GB iPhones, new AppleTVs without 4k support, iMacs with 5400rpm drives, neutering the Mac mini, no updates to MacPro in years (again), no dedicated GPUs in MacBook Pros (except a single model at the highest end), etc.
And the significant slide in iPad sales is a very real concern too. I think that can be attributed to a lack of updates/new features (same iPad Air 2 anyone?), but also more importantly is that there has been no real progress on making iOS content CREATION friendly. You can't continue to hide the file system and provide effectively no I/O on the device (among other things) and have the iPad taken seriously as a real tool for real work.
While I don't care what WallStreet thinks, these very real real-world issues probably are reflected in their stock valuation.
I use my iPad for "real" work. I can't wait for the Pro!
But, i've wondered this before - which iPad sales are slipping more, the full size model, or the Mini? I think that's important. If it's the Mini, then that's mostly due to large phones, both Apple's and competitor's. If it's the full size model, then there's another reason, and what would that be?
It's up 3% now but if this was anyone else it would be up at least 10%. Best Q4 in Apple's history. Record iPhone sales for this quarter, 30% Android switchers. Record Mac sales. And Wall Street basically says meh.
And profits per share up 38% year over year. Doomed.
Comments
Stock is now down 30 cents. My guess is it will be down 1-2% tomorrow. Wall Street is convinced iPhone is doomed and there is nothing Apple can report or Tim can say that will change their minds.
That's my guess as well. Currency headwinds tempering guidance.
But I still think we'll get gradual sh price increase to 125 by Dec.
Especially as iPad Pro, ATV as well as strong iPhone sales comes to media.
I just don't think the market will stay out of AAPL for too much longer, though maybe enough powder for one more take down before a rise?
As far as iPhone sales are concerned, I believe Apple is very close to limit. Growth has to come from other areas, which can move the needle.
(Car?)
Pay/Watch/TV etc. are good but those are peanuts compared to big 3 (iPhone, iPad and Mac).
Until something big comes on the way, I am guessing it will float in 100-130 range for long period.
I'd bet that if iPad sales were down just 10% vs the 23%, the stock would be up several percent right now.
But it was up 3% at one point. What growth did Microsoft forecast compared to the same quarter last year? Same question for Google and Amazon.
Yet not one question on the conference call was about iPads. So I don't buy that. Again I think Wall Street is convinced Apple played its last card with iPhone (larger screen) and there's no growth left.
I think you guys are overdoing it a bit. Apple's stock went up a lot because sales went up a lot. As sales seem to be flattening, and iPad sales continue to drop a lot, they're going to be wary. Let's try to avoid shrill reasoning for them.
Sales are up almost a quarter YoY- sorry, but how the hell do you see that as "flattening", especially for a company that sells hundreds of millions of devices a year and is worth almost a trillion dollars? There's nothing "flat" about any of their numbers. Apple is the only company on earth that is EXPECTED to crush all their previous records every quarter, and even when they do, it's like "meh, I guess they'll survive another few months", and people like you that define sales as "flat".
But it was up 3% at one point. What growth did Microsoft forecast compared to the same quarter last year? Same question for Google and Amazon.
That always happens. The first few drive the stock up. If its a really good quarter, the stock drifts upward as the evening goes by. But while this was another record quarter, tPad sales, and next quarter's guidance bothered them. look, I get it. It bothers me too, and it should bother you as well. When sales are estimated to be close to flat, then they're also close to a drop.
I think you guys are overdoing it a bit. Apple's stock went up a lot because sales went up a lot. As sales seem to be flattening, and iPad sales continue to drop a lot, they're going to be wary. Let's try to avoid shrill reasoning for them.
If Amazon/Google stop doing their diversified projects and stop spending money on them, they can easily boost their net profit to multi-billion dollars.
They keep spending more money in other areas. They have continued high growth expectation down the road (2-5 years), which helps keep their valuation at high level.
For Apple, I guess iCar has to become reality for further major growth.
The revenue growth outside of China is only 18%, iPad sales are down over 20%. The guidance for the next quarter is barely above the last year actual results. While Apple is known to give a very conservative guidance, still considering Apple valuation, there is simply not enough momentum to push the stock further up. Aside from China, the momentum is not there anymore.
So Apple fanatics, call me all you want, but AAPL ain't AMZN. The latter innovates. The former buys back its shares to prop the stock up.
Sales are up almost a quarter YoY- sorry, but how the hell do you see that as "flattening", especially for a company that sells hundreds of millions of devices a year and is worth almost a trillion dollars? There's nothing "flat" about any of their numbers.
Mac Sales up just 3.3%.
iPad sales down 23%.
Next quarter's guidance 4%, though Cook said that it was actually between 8-10%. I suppose he's talking around the currency headwind.
But that's ptetty much flat overall from last year's december quarter.
If Amazon/Google stop doing their diversified projects and stop spending money on them, they can easily boost their net profit to multi-billion dollars.
They keep spending more money in other areas. They have continued high growth expectation down the road (2-5 years), which helps keep their valuation at high level.
For Apple, I guess iCar has to become reality for further major growth.
Don't bet on it. The day the Apple Car is announced, it'll be "APPLE STRUGGLES TO ENTER NEW MARKETS" and "APPLE EXPECTED TO FAIL SPECTACULARLY ON DESPERATE LAST-DITCH ATTEMPT AT GROWTH".
Don't care what WallStreet thinks. They're a bunch of monkeys anyway. Isn't going to make any difference in how Apple is run (hopefully Tim doesn't really pay attention to those clowns).
Apple is doing well financially, but from a real business point of view (as in practical product manufacturing and user adoption) there are some concerns, including the misses with 16GB iPhones, new AppleTVs without 4k support, iMacs with 5400rpm drives, neutering the Mac mini, no updates to MacPro in years (again), no dedicated GPUs in MacBook Pros (except a single model at the highest end), etc.
And the significant slide in iPad sales is a very real concern too. I think that can be attributed to a lack of updates/new features (same iPad Air 2 anyone?), but also more importantly is that there has been no real progress on making iOS content CREATION friendly. You can't continue to hide the file system and provide effectively no I/O on the device (among other things) and have the iPad taken seriously as a real tool for real work.
While I don't care what WallStreet thinks, these very real real-world issues probably are reflected in their stock valuation.
What do you mean "just" 3.3% for Macs? The Septemner quarter is seasonally Apple's weakest quarter. We'pre people actually expecting huge YOY Mac growth? Also on the call Tim Cook said Apple was expecting iPhone unit growth in the December quarter.
If Amazon/Google stop doing their diversified projects and stop spending money on them, they can easily boost their net profit to multi-billion dollars.
They keep spending more money in other areas. They have continued high growth expectation down the road (2-5 years), which helps keep their valuation at high level.
For Apple, I guess iCar has to become reality for further major growth.
Look at Apple's size. While they can still have a LOT of growth, it's slowing down next year. Maybe the year after, it will move up again with a completely new phone.
But Apple can't do to much with computers, as much of the advances depend on Intel's chips. I would have bought new iMacs for my wife and daughter last year, but they weren't great. So, I'm buying them now.
Also based on some of the comments from the CFO clearly Apple is now treating iPad as a 2-3 year upgrade cycle.
That's probably fair considering the durability of the iPad.
Well that bump didn't last long, stock down 0.63% after hours.
Don't care what WallStreet thinks. They're a bunch of monkeys anyway. Isn't going to make any difference in how Apple is run (hopefully Tim doesn't really pay attention to those clowns).
Apple is doing well financially, but from a real business point of view (as in practical product manufacturing and user adoption) there are some concerns, including the misses with 16GB iPhones, new AppleTVs without 4k support, iMacs with 5400rpm drives, neutering the Mac mini, no updates to MacPro in years (again), no dedicated GPUs in MacBook Pros (except a single model at the highest end), etc.
And the significant slide in iPad sales is a very real concern too. I think that can be attributed to a lack of updates/new features (same iPad Air 2 anyone?), but also more importantly is that there has been no real progress on making iOS content CREATION friendly. You can't continue to hide the file system and provide effectively no I/O on the device (among other things) and have the iPad taken seriously as a real tool for real work.
While I don't care what WallStreet thinks, these very real real-world issues probably are reflected in their stock valuation.
I use my iPad for "real" work. I can't wait for the Pro!
But, i've wondered this before - which iPad sales are slipping more, the full size model, or the Mini? I think that's important. If it's the Mini, then that's mostly due to large phones, both Apple's and competitor's. If it's the full size model, then there's another reason, and what would that be?
Well that bump didn't last long, stock down 0.63% after hours.
Hooray! The analysts win again! All is lost!
It's up 3% now but if this was anyone else it would be up at least 10%. Best Q4 in Apple's history. Record iPhone sales for this quarter, 30% Android switchers. Record Mac sales. And Wall Street basically says meh.
And profits per share up 38% year over year. Doomed.
No $150 for Sog. Good bye.