JP Morgan adds to Apple supply chain worries, cuts early 2016 iPhone estimates

24

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 63
    ...Icahn is spreading all this supply chain misinformation.
    stock dives, AAPL buys back more on the cheap, Icahn buys more shares.

    Icahn sells at $170 next year.

    kidding of course, don't take me so seriously.


  • Reply 22 of 63

    StockJerk said:

     Why did Apple slash the price in India for the 5S? This is very disconcerting from a shareholder perspective even though I like the idea of them selling two-year-old technology at cost to get them in the ecosystem...


    As a shareholder I don't find this price cut disconcerting.  I don't know what Apple's margins are in India, but we all know India's population is enormous and most people there are extremely poor.  I'd have to be much better informed than I am in order to be qualified to second guess Apple's India business strategy.
     I do not disagree, I guess what I meant was most "disconcerting" is the combination of what's going on with world currencies relative to the dollar.  The price cut is extremely curious,  and why only in India? 
  • Reply 23 of 63
    Thank you so much JP Morgen , great opportunity to get back in at the support of a new trading range!
  • Reply 24 of 63
    sog35 said:
    This is the 10th Analyist that says supply chain is proof that iPhone sales will be weak.

    Why isn't Cook doing anything?

    Every day some other Anaysist comes out with the same BULLSHIT and the stock sheds another $6,000,000,000-$18,000,000,000. 
    The stock has lost $140,000,000,000 in a few months because of these rumors.

    Yet Cook does NOTHING!
    your nuts -- Cook has already stated on calls not to listen to the guesstimators, and the supply chain reports are bunk. has. said. it.
    edited December 2015 brucemc
  • Reply 25 of 63
    ac1234ac1234 Posts: 138member
    jfc1138 said:
    techlover said:
    Here we go again.

    AAPL is getting hammered today. This is a great time to make a buy in my opinion.
    "hammered"? It's down a little over 1% while the overall DOW is off 0.65. and NASDAQ is down 0.59
    "hammered" is not that bad a comment when you look at the longer run performance - it sucks.  AAPL traded @ $100 in September 2012.  Here we are 3.25 years later staring at AAPL @ $110.  Not quite 3% compounded growth/year.  That is pathetic given the overall financial performance of Apple.  Art Levinson and Tim Cook need to do a far better job of managing the shareholder return of their jobs.  Over  $100,000,000,000 of shareholder wasted on buybacks that have done what? 

    Maybe it is time for Art Levinson to go.
    edited December 2015
  • Reply 26 of 63

    dws-2 said:
    I have no idea what's going on, but it is very clear that Apple is making significant changes. They have started selling almost all their products (except iPhones) at larger discounts than normal to get big promotions from big box stores. They have started to advertise in their own apps to push iPhones. They are reshuffling their management.

    Maybe they are trying to grow even bigger; maybe they are trying to stem reduced consumer demand. Maybe a little bit of both. In any case, they are definitely moving to a different style of management that looks a lot more typical of large companies. This is typical of what happens to big organizations after its driving personality dies. In fact, this reminds me a lot of what happened to the Mongols after Genghis Khan died. Without the driving personality, things inevitably change.
    so much nonsense.

    you dont know what is driving the Watch discounts at big box retailers. there was another discussion that it's a request from the retailers to counter Amazon sales, and that Apple is on board w/ it for the higher exposure. yet no one knows whether apple is providing the discount or just the retailer. it is not know.

    and all the steve jobs is dead stuff? please.
    edited December 2015
  • Reply 27 of 63

    As I've said before I can't wait until Apple is no longer iPhone, Inc. Sure Alphabet is Advertising, Inc. but Wall Street considers them a monopoly and is smitten by all their moonshots and pie in the sky stuff. Apple chooses to keep all of that stuff secret so Wall Street has nothing other than how many iPhones did Apple sell.
    apple's non-iphone business is larger than many other tech companies.
  • Reply 28 of 63
    jonljonl Posts: 210member
    sog35 said:
    This is the 10th Analyist that says supply chain is proof that iPhone sales will be weak.

    Why the fuc isn't Cook doing anything?

    Every day some other Anaysist comes out with the same BULLSHIT and the stock sheds another $6,000,000,000-$18,000,000,000. 
    The stock has lost $140,000,000,000 in a few months because of this BULLSHIT rumors.

    Yet Cook does NOTHING!
    your nuts -- Cook has already stated on calls not to listen to the guesstimators, and the supply chain reports are bunk. has. said. it.
    It doesn't mean they can never be right. The problem with responding to rumors is that it creates the expectation that you'll respond to all of them, and when you don't, it generates even more doubt.
    edited December 2015
  • Reply 29 of 63
    sog35 said:
    ac1234 said:
    "hammered" is not that bad a comment when you look at the longer run performance - it sucks.  AAPL traded @ $100 in September 2012.  Here we are 3.25 years later staring at AAPL @ $110.  Not quite 3% compounded growth/year.  That is pathetic given the overall financial performance of Apple.  Art Levinson and Tim Cook need to do a far better job of managing the shareholder return of their jobs.  Over a $100,000,000,000 of shareholder wasted on buybacks that have done what? 

    Maybe it is time for Art Levinson to go.
    It is pathetic.

    3 years from Sept 2012.
    Spent over $130 billion in buybacks/dividends
    Recorded over $130 billion in profits in those 3 years.
    Grew revenue from $150 billion to almost $235 billion.

    Yet the market cap of the stock is worth LESS than 3 years ago.

    This is NOT a small problem.  If your stock is weak you will lose many employees who rely on stock options as compensation.  If your stock is weak, then public perception is the company is weak.
    Edit: stupid comment
    edited December 2015
  • Reply 30 of 63
    sog35 said:
    ac1234 said:
    "hammered" is not that bad a comment when you look at the longer run performance - it sucks.  AAPL traded @ $100 in September 2012.  Here we are 3.25 years later staring at AAPL @ $110.  Not quite 3% compounded growth/year.  That is pathetic given the overall financial performance of Apple.  Art Levinson and Tim Cook need to do a far better job of managing the shareholder return of their jobs.  Over a $100,000,000,000 of shareholder wasted on buybacks that have done what? 

    Maybe it is time for Art Levinson to go.
    It is pathetic.

    3 years from Sept 2012.
    Spent over $130 billion in buybacks/dividends
    Recorded over $130 billion in profits in those 3 years.
    Grew revenue from $150 billion to almost $235 billion.

    Yet the market cap of the stock is worth LESS than 3 years ago.

    This is NOT a small problem.  If your stock is weak you will lose many employees who rely on stock options as compensation.  If your stock is weak, then public perception is the company is weak.
    If an investment were made in MSFT three years ago today, it would have doubled by today.

    Same goes for GOOG, it has more than doubled in three years.

    AMZN same thing, it has well over doubled in three years.

    If FB were invested in, it has more than tripled in three years.

    AAPL is up around $35 in three years. Even though they are killing it with profits and great products, it is clearly not as good of an investment as the others mentioned above.

    Which brings me to your point about employee stock compensation, which is a fairly good point. I bet that thought is not lost on the extremely smart people that all of these companies hire in order to produce their various products.
    palomine
  • Reply 31 of 63
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 2,648member
    ac1234 said:
    eightzero said:
    sog35 said:
    This is the 10th Analyist that says supply chain is proof that iPhone sales will be weak.

    Why the fuc isn't Cook doing anything?

    Every day some other Anaysist comes out with the same BULLSHIT and the stock sheds another $6,000,000,000-$18,000,000,000. 
    The stock has lost $140,000,000,000 in a few months because of this BULLSHIT rumors.

    Yet Cook does NOTHING!
    Silence is not nothing. Meanwhile, they plan a massive stock buyback at low prices. 
    To accomplish what ????  Over $100,000,000,000 of shareholder value has been wasted on this buyback scheme.
    Maybe, just maybe, the corporation has a plan to get $200,000,000,000 of shareholder value back, given that they have more information that we do.
  • Reply 32 of 63
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 2,648member
    ac1234 said:
    eightzero said:
    sog35 said:
    This is the 10th Analyist that says supply chain is proof that iPhone sales will be weak.

    Why the fuc isn't Cook doing anything?

    Every day some other Anaysist comes out with the same BULLSHIT and the stock sheds another $6,000,000,000-$18,000,000,000. 
    The stock has lost $140,000,000,000 in a few months because of this BULLSHIT rumors.

    Yet Cook does NOTHING!
    Silence is not nothing. Meanwhile, they plan a massive stock buyback at low prices. 
    To accomplish what ????  Over $100,000,000,000 of shareholder value has been wasted on this buyback scheme.
    Maybe, just maybe, the corporation has a plan to get $200,000,000,000 of shareholder value back, given that they have more information that we do.
  • Reply 33 of 63
    ac1234ac1234 Posts: 138member
    eightzero said:
    ac1234 said:
    To accomplish what ????  Over $100,000,000,000 of shareholder value has been wasted on this buyback scheme.
    Maybe, just maybe, the corporation has a plan to get $200,000,000,000 of shareholder value back, given that they have more information that we do.
    Maybe, just maybe, they don't.
  • Reply 34 of 63
    sog35 said:
    jonl said:
    It doesn't mean they can never be right. The problem with responding to rumors is that it creates the expectation that you'll respond to all of them, and when you don't, it generates even more doubt.
    Well the problem is Cook already responded to rumors in the past.

    Just this year he responded to Cramer about the rumors that sales in China was tanking.
    In 2013 he responded to rumors of weak supply chain and reiterated guidance with a press release.
    They also released first week China sales in 2012 when their were rumors there were no lines at store.

    He's done it before.  Why not respond now?  Why let the loyal shareholders suffer TENS OF BILLIONS IN SHAREHOLDER LOSSES?
    From your desperation it looks like, you are invested very heavily in options that may be expiring soon and you will loose all values if AAPL price don't go up soon.

    I really don't think that price is going to move anytime soon until results comes in Jan End.
    I also think that results of current quarter will not matter, even if they are outstanding but outlook for the next quarter/year will matter the most.
    That's where all analyst are pointing the down drift.

    Either stop playing with options/stocks all together (Not only AAPL) or have courage to take bigger profit/loss.
  • Reply 35 of 63
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    Being long with a cost basis just above $5 I'm okay with Cook's tenure.
  • Reply 36 of 63
    ac1234ac1234 Posts: 138member
    A critical undercurrent for many of we long term (decade+) shareholders is the mountain of cash that Apple holds and they can't figure out a way or don't want to return it to shareholders.  If Apple was not performing financially or if they did not have such a huge cash position, many of us would take our losses and invest elsewhere.

    Bring some of the $$$ back onshore - pay the taxes - and distribute huge dividends.  AND, quit wasting $$ on the buybacks - they are not working and rarely do !!
  • Reply 37 of 63
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,040member
    Why the fck do I care? They upgraded for months and AAPL moved up ZERO cent. Fck Wall Street.
    palomine
  • Reply 38 of 63
    sog35 said:


    Either stop playing with options/stocks all together (Not only AAPL) or have courage to take bigger profit/loss.
    I don't own any Apple options.

    Its not about just selling since I don't like what Cook is doing.  What Wall Street is doing is CRIMINAL.  Its like saying you bought a car at Toyota.  But then you realize the car has no engine in it.  Would you not bitch about it?  Oh but why don't you just sell the car if you don't like it!!!  That's the same thing as telling someone just to sell his stock when its criminally under valued.

    If I had bad returns/experience with something for one/two/three years, I don't keep adding money/holding it.
    I rather get out and start out fresh.

    Besides, one side you are claiming that you lost $37,000 year to date in APPL and APPL stock is at same price as it was on 1st Jan 2015?
    So no one else lost single dollar in APPL stock compared to what it was on 1st Jan. Rather they gained $2 in long term dividend income.

    Nothing seem to add up, when you say anything.
  • Reply 39 of 63
    sog35 said:
    shahhet2 said:
    If I had bad returns/experience with something for one/two/three years, I don't keep adding money/holding it.
    I rather get out and start out fresh.

    Besides, one side you are claiming that you lost $37,000 year to date in APPL and APPL stock is at same price as it was on 1st Jan 2015?
    So no one else lost single dollar in APPL stock compared to what it was on 1st Jan. Rather they gained $2 in long term dividend income.

    Nothing seem to add up, when you say anything.
    The stock peak was $134 in early January.
    The stock is now $109

    $25 drop x 1500 shares = $37,000 
    ???

    Are you sure about that?

    More like late April, 2015. But not January 2015.

    What chart/data are you looking at? 
  • Reply 40 of 63
    The strong dollar in recent months has made iPhone about 10% more expensive in overseas markets where demand has been growing most rapidly. If the elasticity of demand is 2 (hypothetically), that suggests unit iPhone sales should fall by 20% in those markets -- if underlying demand were unchanged. However, flat unit sales would translate into 20% demand growth, going up against a 20% headwind. In recent quarters Apple has used currency hedges to offset some of these risks, but who knows what it is doing this quarter. The recent announcement of an iPhone 5s price cut in India and the new financing (subscription) plan will make some difference. The strong dollar also means that Apple's payments to Chinese, Korean and other suppliers will be going down (in dollar terms). That does not happen automatically, however. Apple may first delay new components orders, then open negotiations with vendors on lower prices. If components have previously been priced in dollars, Apple will offer fewer. If components have previously been priced in foreign currencies, Apple will resist increases. In short, it is possible that some of the news (rumors) about Apple's declining components orders may reflect exchange rate-related negotiations, independent of what's taking place with iPhone demand. Apple more or less has to renegotiate with suppliers in response to the dollar's run-up, for the same reason that it raises retail iPhone prices at such times. It is highly unlikely that during such negotiations (i.e., today) Tim Cook would announce that iPhone demand is strong, and that components suppliers have Apple over a barrel. Apple is complex. It is not clear to me that supply chain checkers, analysts or anyone else has enough information to sort it out in real time.
    palomineStockJerk
Sign In or Register to comment.