Apple suppliers expect iPhone 6s orders to be cut by 30% this quarter - report

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 96
    ac1234ac1234 Posts: 138member
    thompr said:
    Bmjtomlin said:

    Tim Cook already said something over a year ago about reading the supply chain tea leaves. These people obviously don't listen to or believe anything Tim says (even though their financial reports have backed up everything he said), so why bother continuing to play this stupid game? Instead, let the quarterly report speak for itself.

    If you're a long-term investor, the price hitting this low gives you an opportunity to expand your investment. If you're a day trader, well that's the gamble you made.

    Bingo
    Not Bingo - BUNK !!  AAPL is trading where it was over three years ago with nothing but great financial numbers for the past three years - enough already with the patience / day trading malarkey.
    palomine
  • Reply 42 of 96
    freerangefreerange Posts: 1,595member
    sog35 said:
    Here we go again.

    This is probably the 15th time these supply chain rumors have come out since November.
    And each time the stock losses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.

    Yet Tim Cook says absolutely NOTHING.
    The stock is down nearly $180 billion since these rumors have started.
    Yet Cook does nothing.


    How wrong can you possibly be? Cook is doing exactly what he should, buying back shares at a steep discount! So try to do your homework and understand the company before making such ridiculous statements.
    icoco3magman1979nolamacguy
  • Reply 43 of 96
    I still want to know what exactly the analysts think the iPhone 7 will have that will magically erase the D&G. If the 6S is a dud (according to them) what will make the 7 not a dud?
  • Reply 44 of 96
    tzeshantzeshan Posts: 2,351member
    Could iPhone repeat the same path iPad experienced over two years ago?  The iPad sales was dropping mainly because many iPad users feel their iPads are good enough without upgrading. 
    canukstorm
  • Reply 45 of 96
    freerangefreerange Posts: 1,595member

    sog35 said:

    We've heard these supply chain rumors since the beginning of December. At what point is this already baked in to the stock price? 
    Never.

    Each time Tim Cook refuses to dispute these supply chain lies the stock will go down.  It has happenned 10x already in the past 2 months. No reason for it too stop.

    With each new rumor and non-comment by Apple just adds more wood to the fire that these stories are actually true.

    Any half way decent CEO would have disputed these rumors WEEKS ago.  Yet Tim Cook does jack shit and allows these assholes to ruin the stock by telling lies.
    Give it a rest, no one wants to hear your stupid whining... If you want to do something constructive, complain to the SEC about market manipulation by the short sellers and private equity funds.
    icoco3magman1979nolamacguypalomine
  • Reply 46 of 96
    I still want to know what exactly the analysts think the iPhone 7 will have that will magically erase the D&G. If the 6S is a dud (according to them) what will make the 7 not a dud?
    Can't speak for others, but here's my take...

    iPhone 6s was an improvement under the hood, but externally it looks pretty much the same. It's also thicker and heavier than the prior generation models, which -- again -- is due to the under the hood goodies, but probably off-putting to some. 

    iPhone 7 will bring an entirely new design, improved internals, better display, and probably some cool new features (waterproof for example). Unlike the 6s, the 7 should be compelling enough to convince a good chunk of the iPhone 6 buyers to upgrade (6s likely wasn't enough for most people). 
  • Reply 47 of 96
    lukeilukei Posts: 377member
    sog35 said:
    aeassa said:
    Why do you have such little faith in Tim Cook? What business moves has he made that you think are bad/stupid? 
    1. Bringing the larger iPhone too late. Allowed Samsung to steal massive share.
    2. No iPadAir update this year, no iPad Mini update last year.
    3. Continues to offer weak guidance every quarter. So even if Apple reports great numbers the stock does not move because of weak guidance.
    4. Entry level iMac is crap and now less Fusion SD memory
    5. Macbook with only one port. WTF
    6. New magic mouse needs to be put on its back to charge.
    7. Out of stock for Apple Pencil for MONTHS
    8. Still selling 16GB flagship phones
    9. Still only giving 5GB of iCloud
    10. Not reporting Watch units. The one category that can grow.
    11. Not reporting AppleTV units.
    12. Not closing the deal on live TV package.
    13. Horrible bugs on AppleMusic that deletes your collection
    14. Horrible bugs in iOS and OSX this year and last
    15. Wasting time on gay rights and other issues that he has no business wasting his time on
    16. Apple Watch launch was an absolute disaster with hardly any models available
    17. Apple Watch UI is confusing and a mess.
    18. AppleMusic UI is confusing and a mess.
    19. iPhones still have too little battery life.
    20. Getting smoked in the education sector by Google Chromebooks
    21. ApplePay has been an absolute fail. 90% of the places don't accept it.
    22. Crappy updates for Macbook Air and Macbook pro this year.
    23. No 3d touch on iPad Pro.
    24. Refuses to segregate hardware and software revenue on iPhone sales.
    25. Allows rumors and lies to fester 

    Tim Cook has been a massive fail this year and last.
    Go on admit it. Point 15 is your real bug bear?
    icoco3magman1979lord amhranbuckalecnolamacguyargonaut
  • Reply 48 of 96
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    No 26: ONLY had eleven times ($81.3 billion) as much free cash flow as Facebook* ($7.4) last year!

    Is it any wonder why Facebook's P/E valuation is nine times Apple's? 

    Oh.

    Wait.

    And then there's Amazon... 80 times P/E valuation with one eighth the cash flow. (9.8 billion).

    ETA: * Corrected when I referred to the original Fortune article: "Apple's Bizarre Valuation: Something's Got to Give"
    edited January 2016 lukeiicoco3argonaut
  • Reply 49 of 96
    buckalecbuckalec Posts: 199member
    Does anyone here pay attention to Horace Dediu's analysis over at Asymco?  Here's his chart.  It's impossible for me to see this sky-is-falling, 30% cut scenario when I look at the Asymco work:  
    I most certainly do - Horace is the only man who looks at Bloomberg reporters and others with contempt over their stupid "is apple really doomed" remarks. Man is gifted, he makes news (as in the time he quote the billions from extra services)
  • Reply 50 of 96
    lukeilukei Posts: 377member
    jfc1138 said:
    No 26: ONLY made eleven times as much profit as Google last year!
    I think you forget that sog35s business that he is the CEO of achieved 12 X Google profit levels AND delivered significant share price increase /s
    icoco3
  • Reply 51 of 96
    Anyone remember this? Did it ever turn out to be true?

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324235104578241051730364998

    Apple Cuts Orders for iPhone Parts

    By

    Juro Osawa

    Updated Jan. 14, 2013 8:37 a.m. ET

    Apple Inc. has cut its component orders for the iPhone 5 because of weaker-than-expected demand, people familiar with the situation said Monday, indicating sales of the latest smartphone haven't been as strong as anticipated. 

    Apple's orders for iPhone 5 screens for the first quarter, for example, have dropped to roughly half of what the company had planned to order, the people said.

    The Cupertino, Calif., company also cut orders for components other than screens, one of the people said.

    magman1979buckalecdrewys808argonaut
  • Reply 52 of 96
    lukeilukei Posts: 377member
    sog35 said:

    lukei said:
    So you don't trust a CEO who has overseen revenue increases of that level because analysts and traders are leading the share price where they want it? Why would he be bothered with your return on share price appreciation? They pay dividends, they are buying shares back at what you yourself say are below their real value. 

    Ive heard of circular arguments but you take the class prize. 
    There has been revenue growth the last 3 years (actually only the last 1.5 years) not because of the brillance of Tim Cook.  Revenue grew because they released a bigger phone. PERIOD.  And any idiot on the street could have told you that Apple needs to release a bigger phone.

    Take out iPhone growth and what do you have?

    iPad is tanking.
    Mac is up marginally.
    AppleTV is flat.
    Software/Services are up marginally.
    Watch is up but just takes the place of iPod.

    The only good thing Tim Cook has done is release a big iPhone. Which is the biggest no brainer in the history of man.  All his other moves have been absolute crap:

    1. AppleMusic - 2 years too late
    2. AppleTV - 2 years too late. Plus no 4k and no live TV subs.
    3. iPad - been crap under Cook. Ever since Jobs died the iPad has been tanking. 
    4. Software/Services - up only because of increase in iPhone units.
    5. Mac - nothing innovative. Just thinner. Growth has been marginal. Which is a huge disappointment considering the massive growth of the iOS user base and the absolute failure of Windows8.  Millions were begging to get off of Windows but Apple still sells the Mac for way too much to get massive migration.
    6. ApplePay - absolute failure. I have a Watch and 6+ but stop using ApplePay because 90% of the stores don't accept it.
    7. Stock performance. Absolute CRAP. Worse than much less risky indexs and got totally destroyed by any of the other big tech companies by 1000% or more.
    I can fix point 6 for you. Move to the UK where almost no retailers don't take contactless AKA ApplePay. Perhaps it's your banking system not Apple..


    icoco3argonaut
  • Reply 53 of 96
    adamcadamc Posts: 582member
    cropr said:
    For what it is worth, a friend of mine is a sales man in a telecom shop, and he said to me the other day that the iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s+ did not sell as good this Xmas as the iPhone 6 and iPhone6+ did last Xmas.   He is not allowed the give exact details but the difference is between 10 and 20%
    I too have a friend in an apple shop and he said the 6S is selling great./s

    Guess he didn't read that 47% of activation for this holiday season is by iOS products.
  • Reply 54 of 96
    sog35 said:
    aeassa said:
    Why do you have such little faith in Tim Cook? What business moves has he made that you think are bad/stupid? 
    1. Bringing the larger iPhone too late. Allowed Samsung to steal massive share.
    2. No iPadAir update this year, no iPad Mini update last year.
    3. Continues to offer weak guidance every quarter. So even if Apple reports great numbers the stock does not move because of weak guidance.
    4. Entry level iMac is crap and now less Fusion SD memory
    5. Macbook with only one port. WTF
    6. New magic mouse needs to be put on its back to charge.
    7. Out of stock for Apple Pencil for MONTHS
    8. Still selling 16GB flagship phones
    9. Still only giving 5GB of iCloud
    10. Not reporting Watch units. The one category that can grow.
    11. Not reporting AppleTV units.
    12. Not closing the deal on live TV package.
    13. Horrible bugs on AppleMusic that deletes your collection
    14. Horrible bugs in iOS and OSX this year and last
    15. Wasting time on gay rights and other issues that he has no business wasting his time on
    16. Apple Watch launch was an absolute disaster with hardly any models available
    17. Apple Watch UI is confusing and a mess.
    18. AppleMusic UI is confusing and a mess.
    19. iPhones still have too little battery life.
    20. Getting smoked in the education sector by Google Chromebooks
    21. ApplePay has been an absolute fail. 90% of the places don't accept it.
    22. Crappy updates for Macbook Air and Macbook pro this year.
    23. No 3d touch on iPad Pro.
    24. Refuses to segregate hardware and software revenue on iPhone sales.
    25. Allows rumors and lies to fester 

    Tim Cook has been a massive fail this year and last.
    1. Maybe, but even so Apple was able to grow with the iPhone 5/5s. 

    2. iPad Air 2 is still best in class in the world of 9.7-inch tablets, and small tablets are getting cannibalized by larger phones, so not really material to Apple's business. 

    3. They give guidance that they know they can achieve. Better to under-promise and over-deliver than to over-promise and under-deliver, hurting management credibility. 

    4. This is meant to drive upsell to higher-priced, higher margin iMacs. Good for stockholders. 

    5. Engineering is all about trade-offs, and given that the new MacBook is selling very well, it seems Apple made the right trade-offs ;) 

    6. Meh. 

    7. Agreed, but this stuff is just really hard to manufacture.

    8. Again, meant to drive upsell to higher-end iPhone models to improve revenue/margin for Apple stockholders. Not a valid criticism. 

    9. This is designed to get users to buy more iCloud space. If Apple just "gave" users all of the iCloud storage they needed, then they wouldn't be able to sell higher tiers of storage. Again, great for the business/stockholders. 

    10. Meh, it's irritating but not something that's really going to impact Apple's business performance. 

    11. Sales here are probably so low compared to Apple's other "big ticket" products that it's really not that material to investors. Also, this has nothing to do with Apple's business and is more just a gripe with how much Apple discloses to investors. 

    12. Sometimes things just don't work out. A reality for all businesses. 

    13. Software is hard, and while that is unfortunate, I'm sure they'll get it fixed. 

    14. iOS works fine for me, but it's important to understand that as these OSes become more complex and pack in more features, they are going to be more prone to error. As long as Apple is working diligently to fix them, I don't see any real reason to hate on Cook. That's just reality in the trenches. 

    15. I think it's important for the world's richest and most powerful people to take stands on human rights issues, and I am glad to see Tim Cook try to make the world a better place for his fellow human beings.

    16. These things are hard to build. And, hey, at least they're selling a lot of them unlike all of Apple's competitors in smartwatches ;-)

    17. That's just an opinion. I think it's quite nice and slick. 

    18. Again just opinion. I love Apple Music; it's become an indispensable part of my daily life. 

    19. Agree that iPhone 6s could use more battery life, by my 6s Plus is solid. 

    20. What would you do if you were Tim Cook? 

    21. Takes time to build up the ecosystem. That said, I use Apple Pay daily and it works great for me...

    22. Agree with you there; hope they bring substantial updates this year. That said, Apple is STILL gaining share in PCs, so it's not as though customers seem to care much...

    23. Technical challenge that I'm sure Apple is working on. 

    24. That's not really a business problem, that's just a disagreement with Apple's reporting ;) 

    25. We'll see if the supply chain reports are "lies" or not in 21 days. 
    buckalecicoco3
  • Reply 55 of 96
    josujosu Posts: 217member
    aeassa said:
    RonnnieO said:
    Maybe Tim Cook isn't disputing these reports because they are true and iphone numbers will be light for the quarter. Also, he doesn't have to issue a warning just because of light iphone sales, only if the total revenue of the company is below guidance. IMO this would be a good scenario as it tells me that sales of macs, ipads, watches etc. etc. are doing better than expected which will quiet those who think Apple is a one trick pony with the iphone.
    I don't think Apple will miss their FQ1 numbers, but the odds are looking good that FQ2 guide will be pretty downbeat. They wouldn't warn about a quarter they haven't guided to yet, hence no warning. 
    According to the article, the expected drop in orders is because of overoptimistic sales forecast in the December quarter, that have leave the channel with excess inventory. So or the Q1 guidance was way below the real expectations or there must be right now a profit warning. IMHO. Anyway you are right, the Q2 guidance will be a good indicator of who's right or wrong.
  • Reply 56 of 96
    ac1234ac1234 Posts: 138member

    aeassa said:
    You are far, far too hard on Tim Cook......
    As an investor, you need to decide whether you believe in the company & its management to deliver you value over the long-term. 
    As an INVESTOR - how do you respond to the criticism that Cook / Apple have wasted $100,000,000,000+ on share buybacks and have a shareholder ROI of only 2% dividend yet are sitting on $200,000,000,000 in cash ?????????
    cnocbui
  • Reply 57 of 96
    aeassa said:
    I still want to know what exactly the analysts think the iPhone 7 will have that will magically erase the D&G. If the 6S is a dud (according to them) what will make the 7 not a dud?
    Can't speak for others, but here's my take...

    iPhone 6s was an improvement under the hood, but externally it looks pretty much the same. It's also thicker and heavier than the prior generation models, which -- again -- is due to the under the hood goodies, but probably off-putting to some. 

    iPhone 7 will bring an entirely new design, improved internals, better display, and probably some cool new features (waterproof for example). Unlike the 6s, the 7 should be compelling enough to convince a good chunk of the iPhone 6 buyers to upgrade (6s likely wasn't enough for most people). 
    So basically you're saying Apple needs to change the external design every year. The problem with that theory though is most people don't upgrade every year and on the last earnings call Apple said a large percentage of install base hadn't upgraded to the 6 series yet which means there are a ton of people still using 5S and prior. Now maybe they're not crazy about the 6 series design or want a smaller size. Or maybe these rumors are bunk and Apple's guidance FQ2 guidance will bear that out.
  • Reply 58 of 96
    jonljonl Posts: 210member
    maestro64 said:

    Read my other posting, Apple is in the quite period leading up to the quarterly announcements. He can not speak to these statement unless he gave guidance which the rumor would counter his guidance. The fact Apple did not put out a pre quarterly announcement, it tell me their Q4 numbers will be inline or above their guidance which is good. and you will have to wait until the quarterly announcement to get Q1 guidance
    I believe a company has to preannounce only if there is a material difference between guidance and results. They can certainly miss and not say anything prior to ER.

  • Reply 59 of 96
    felix01felix01 Posts: 289member
    loquitur said:
    sog35 said:
    Can someone give a rational explanation why Tim Cook isn't disputing these reports?
    Yes, from an interview with the Irish Independent -- Cook: "I don't even look at what the analysts say", videlicet:
    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/tim-cook-says-he-doesnt-read-what-analysts-write-about-apple-2015-11

    But you can damn sure bet Cook's investment staff provides him a daily executive summary of what's being written and said by the influential analysts. He has deniability but make no mistake he certainly knows what's influencing AAPL stock prices. So if he's not publicly saying anything, it's a conscious decision...whether because the rumors are true or because they aren't and he wants to stick a sharp stick in the collective Wall Street's eye or because he's just contrarian. 
  • Reply 60 of 96
    sog35 said:
    Here we go again.

    This is probably the 15th time these supply chain rumors have come out since November.
    And each time the stock losses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.

    Yet Tim Cook says absolutely NOTHING.
    The stock is down nearly $180 billion since these rumors have started.
    Yet Cook does nothing.


    I am hoping Tim Cook remains silent because I am having a lot of fun reading how annoyed with his silence you appear to be. Keep going. Please!
    lord amhran
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