UBS sees record 75M holiday iPhone sales driven by Apple's lower priced models
Investment firm UBS believes Apple sold a record number of iPhones during the just-concluded December quarter, but that fewer customers opted for Apple's high-end models when compared to a year prior, based on new market research.
Citing the latest data from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, UBS analyst Steven Milunovich predicted on Wednesday that the average selling price of the iPhone was $662 last quarter. If true, that would be a decrease from the $687 iPhone ASP seen in the prior year's December quarter.
Milunovich arrived at his estimate after CIRP found that 67 percent of December U.S. iPhone sales were Apple's latest flagship iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus models. That's a decrease from the December 2014 quarter, when 75 percent of customers were buying the then-flagship iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus.
The CIRP data suggests that iPhone demand itself has not slowed, but the mix of models appealing to customers has changed. If Apple did reach UBS's 75-million-unit prediction, it would eke past the 74.5 million units Apple shipped in the same quarter a year ago, setting a new all-time record.
Milunovich doesn't think Apple's December 2015 quarter will help the stock in the short-term. But he's also convinced that investors are simply too bearish on Apple's longer-term prospects.
"Consequently, we are inclined to take our short-term lumps and maintain the Buy rating given a solid franchise," he wrote, maintaining a 12-month price target of $130.
Citing the latest data from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, UBS analyst Steven Milunovich predicted on Wednesday that the average selling price of the iPhone was $662 last quarter. If true, that would be a decrease from the $687 iPhone ASP seen in the prior year's December quarter.
Milunovich arrived at his estimate after CIRP found that 67 percent of December U.S. iPhone sales were Apple's latest flagship iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus models. That's a decrease from the December 2014 quarter, when 75 percent of customers were buying the then-flagship iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus.
The CIRP data suggests that iPhone demand itself has not slowed, but the mix of models appealing to customers has changed. If Apple did reach UBS's 75-million-unit prediction, it would eke past the 74.5 million units Apple shipped in the same quarter a year ago, setting a new all-time record.
Milunovich doesn't think Apple's December 2015 quarter will help the stock in the short-term. But he's also convinced that investors are simply too bearish on Apple's longer-term prospects.
"Consequently, we are inclined to take our short-term lumps and maintain the Buy rating given a solid franchise," he wrote, maintaining a 12-month price target of $130.
Comments
"Citing the latest data from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, UBS analyst Steven Milunovich.."
Is using Milunovich and 'Intelligence' in the same sentence a 'contradiction', 'oxymoron' or just a joke ?
He is no friend of AAPL. He is more wrong than right and his AAPL targets have more ups and downs than a yo-yo.
I think people aren't worried about how Apple is performing. I think people are questioning how much profit can be made in a market when the world is likely going to be experiencing a very strong economic downturn. The indicators are there across several markets. For Apple to take 90+% of all the profits in a market, there has to be a healthy market period. China is sick and the world is catching the cold.
This also underscores the importance of not pricing the new 4" at the low end, potentially cannibalizing premium sales from customers who want a smaller iPhone, but are otherwise willing to pay much more than the entry level price.
I don't think Apple is too worried. Regardless of iPhone sales, Apple is going to have another record quarter; WATCH, iPad Pro, iPod Touch, TV. The first is a brand new product line making its holiday debut. The second is a new iPad model that fills a niche, and the last two haven't seen a major update in years.
Milunovich: "Based on our proprietary research we think Apple will sell more iPhones YoY ..."
Fscking genius there buddy.
Having the best boat in the harbor doesn't matter when a Tsunami is coming.
1st tier: 7/7+ at $650/$750
2nd tier: 6S/6S+ at $550/$650
3rd tier: 6/6+ at $450/$550
So, if Apple want to add a 4" model, I believe it would mostly be in the 2nd tier with same components as "6" models and the price should be at $550 with 64GB to start with. Also, Apple may just kill most or all the 16GB at lower end models.