What to expect from Apple's second quarter earnings report on Tuesday evening
Apple's March-quarter financial results are set to be released on Tuesday, and all eyes are on what Apple will say -- or won't say -- about iPhone sales volumes. Here's what observers of the iPhone maker anticipate Apple will reveal.
Apple's quarterly revenue and net profit, as of January's financial results
In January's results, Apple forecast revenue of between $55 billion and $59 billion for the latest quarter, with a gross margin somewhere between 37% and 38%. Operating expenses are expected to be between $8.5 billion and $8.6 billion, along with an anticipated tax rate of approximately 17% for the period.
Apple will be revealing its second quarter 2019 earnings on April 30 at the end of the business day, and will be holding a financial results conference call with analysts at 2 p.m. Pacific, 5 p.m. Eastern. AppleInsider will be reporting on the results as they are announced.
The expectation that Apple will wait until 2020 for a 5G iPhone launch is also thought to weaken the shipment prospects for the 2019 models, as this may "delay the smartphone upgrade cycle in the second half of this year." Rosenblat expects total iPhone shipments to be "about 37 million in Q2.
Apple will most likely "maintain their gross margin," even with a decline in memory prices affecting production costs. "We think memory price declines in the first half will be able to offset the gross margin impacts form iPhone XR price cuts."
Services continues to be a big story for Loup Ventures with it anticipated to be up by at least 15% in the results. Tipped to make up 18% of revenue, the 16% decline in sales will apparently be some comfort to investors, bridging the gap into the next iPhone cycle, but only if Apple exceeds the Street's growth estimates of 15%.
"Investors are slowly shifting their focus away from the iPhone cycle and valuing the company more based on the ecosystem of hardware, software, and services," writes the firm, but warns "it will take several years for this to become consensus."
Apple is also expected to expand its share buyback scheme by $100 billion, and to increase the dividend payment by 16%, "in line with last year's changes to the program."
Shipments of iPhones could be around 41 million units in the quarter, with promising signs from supply chain sources prompting JP Morgan to raise its second quarter shipments estimate to 39 million units.
The shift to Services will face "continued scrutiny" for growth by investors, as it attempts to offset "double digit volume declines in iPhone shipments." Services is forecast for 17% growth, but with margins dipping to 59% caused by Apple's investments in soon-to-launch services like Apple TV+ and Apple Card.
A return to revenue growth in the next quarter will "demonstrate to investors the momentum in Services, Wearables, and Accessories to successfully offset declines in iPhone revenues and improve visibility along long-term growth," JP Morgan suggests.
UBS claims that the lower average selling price is supported by data that indicates a general shift in product mix to "older models." Apple won't report average selling price or iPhone sales volumes, however.
Currently Bank of America anticipates an EPS of $2.33, marginally down on Street estimates.
At the same time as lower iPhone shipments, and in turn revenue, the firm suggests investors should look at the average selling price and general product mix of iPhone sales. "Our current model assumes blended ASP could drop 15% y/y by the December quarter, with the mix-shift towards the low-end likely to negatively impact sales, margins, and related AppleCare revenue," the note advises.
Taking the price cuts into account, "demand trends are slowly turning around in this all-important region for Cupertino as we expect the Street will see when the company reports on Tuesday after the bell."
Apple's quarterly revenue and net profit, as of January's financial results
In January's results, Apple forecast revenue of between $55 billion and $59 billion for the latest quarter, with a gross margin somewhere between 37% and 38%. Operating expenses are expected to be between $8.5 billion and $8.6 billion, along with an anticipated tax rate of approximately 17% for the period.
Apple will be revealing its second quarter 2019 earnings on April 30 at the end of the business day, and will be holding a financial results conference call with analysts at 2 p.m. Pacific, 5 p.m. Eastern. AppleInsider will be reporting on the results as they are announced.
Rosenblatt Securities
Earnings are expected to reveal an "in-line F2Q quarter," according to a note from Rosenblatt Securities provided to AppleInsider, as it anticipates risks to the company will be "mainly in the second half of this calendar year." This is apparently due to a market share loss in key markets including China and Europe, which could affect matters.The expectation that Apple will wait until 2020 for a 5G iPhone launch is also thought to weaken the shipment prospects for the 2019 models, as this may "delay the smartphone upgrade cycle in the second half of this year." Rosenblat expects total iPhone shipments to be "about 37 million in Q2.
Apple will most likely "maintain their gross margin," even with a decline in memory prices affecting production costs. "We think memory price declines in the first half will be able to offset the gross margin impacts form iPhone XR price cuts."
Loup Ventures
Expecting Apple to be the "best performing FAANG stock in 2019," Loup Ventures expects revenue to be better than the consensus of $57.6 billion with an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.37. It is expected that there will be an overall 4% revenue decline, versus the consensus belief of it being 5%, with iPhone revenue down 16% overall.Services continues to be a big story for Loup Ventures with it anticipated to be up by at least 15% in the results. Tipped to make up 18% of revenue, the 16% decline in sales will apparently be some comfort to investors, bridging the gap into the next iPhone cycle, but only if Apple exceeds the Street's growth estimates of 15%.
"Investors are slowly shifting their focus away from the iPhone cycle and valuing the company more based on the ecosystem of hardware, software, and services," writes the firm, but warns "it will take several years for this to become consensus."
Apple is also expected to expand its share buyback scheme by $100 billion, and to increase the dividend payment by 16%, "in line with last year's changes to the program."
JP Morgan
Anticipating a mixed quarter, JP Morgan thinks Apple will have regained its groove following its January miss, with results "roughly in line" for earnings, but with a modestly softer-than-expected revenue due to a "higher mix of previous generation iPhones sold in the quarter." Revenue is tipped to be around $56.8 billion for the quarter, with an EPS of $2.35.Shipments of iPhones could be around 41 million units in the quarter, with promising signs from supply chain sources prompting JP Morgan to raise its second quarter shipments estimate to 39 million units.
The shift to Services will face "continued scrutiny" for growth by investors, as it attempts to offset "double digit volume declines in iPhone shipments." Services is forecast for 17% growth, but with margins dipping to 59% caused by Apple's investments in soon-to-launch services like Apple TV+ and Apple Card.
A return to revenue growth in the next quarter will "demonstrate to investors the momentum in Services, Wearables, and Accessories to successfully offset declines in iPhone revenues and improve visibility along long-term growth," JP Morgan suggests.
UBS
Current expectations are for Apple to achieve $56.5 billion in overall revenue, with earnings and guidance likely to be fine overall despite the prospect of iPhone product mix issues. Along with an EPS of $2.33, UBS is pessimistic compared to the Street, with iPhone revenue down due to an anticipated lower average selling price of $687, rather than street estimates of $745.UBS claims that the lower average selling price is supported by data that indicates a general shift in product mix to "older models." Apple won't report average selling price or iPhone sales volumes, however.
Bank of America
Gross margins will be important for Apple in the results, suggests Bank of America. "If Apple can report a quarter of 37%-38% gross margins (within guidance range), despite the price cuts and quarter-on-quarter gross margins higher in the range of 37.5-38.5%, we would argue that the story has an upward bias to gross margins, which would be a major positive," the bank advises.Currently Bank of America anticipates an EPS of $2.33, marginally down on Street estimates.
Raymond James
Apple is likely to see a drop in iPhone shipments by a considerable amount from the same quarter last year, suggests Raymond James. Unit sales for iPhones are thought to hit 42 million, representing a decline of 19.6%.At the same time as lower iPhone shipments, and in turn revenue, the firm suggests investors should look at the average selling price and general product mix of iPhone sales. "Our current model assumes blended ASP could drop 15% y/y by the December quarter, with the mix-shift towards the low-end likely to negatively impact sales, margins, and related AppleCare revenue," the note advises.
Wedbush
Apple's China issues may be returning to form, mostly due to its program of price reductions in the country, according to Wedbush. "It has been Apple's pricing hubris on iPhone XR that was the major factor in the company's December earnings debacle in China," the firm advises.Taking the price cuts into account, "demand trends are slowly turning around in this all-important region for Cupertino as we expect the Street will see when the company reports on Tuesday after the bell."
Comments
Also a few reports of older models taking a higher slice of the mix. If that's the case, my bet is on prices simply being out of reach of too many users.
The big question is whether Apple's investment into consumer entertainment content will drive revenue and profit growth to the same extent the iPod and iPhone have done for almost the last two decades, and I don't think we'll have the answer to that question for at least another two years when the subscriber growth in these new services starts to level out.
One day the sun will burn out, too.
These reports even point to an iPhone unit contraction. In Q2? After three years of flat sales? That needs correcting if it turns out to be the case.
It is doable but requires changes in the iPhone business model. Either way, without changes there is a risk of serious erosion if the 2019 series doesn't come out with all guns blazing. After a lacklustre 2018 and huge strategic miscalculations, competitors have pulled out in front and Apple has to deliver come September. Samsung was in a similar situation but shipped a stellar upgrade. Now Apple is in the same predicament as Samsung.
Samsung has every bit of technology that Huawei has to offer, even getting "first" for foldable displays, and profit is collapsing. Perhaps Huawei has an inherent advantage of being supported by the Chinese Government? Otherwise, all I see is the marketplace maturing, and at some point, Android OS buyers will be holding on longer to their "good enough" phones just as iPhone users do. There are only so many developing markets left in the world, and Apple is still the most aspiration phone of all.
I don't buy a bit of you analysis about Apple, and that is specifically because Apple is a separate market, for the most part, from Android OS devices.
Ignoring that, millions of high end Android phones are sold every year.
But why concentrate only on the high end? The numbers (guesstimates) appearing in these reports are not limited to Apple's high end. They include Apple's entire price range which can begin at 379€ (including sales tax).
That's a lot of market to move into.
Your success or failure will depend on many factors to varying degrees. Samsung not performing well or Huawei performing well is irrelevant to the point. The point is that a huge swathe of the market is there and currently not occupied by Apple.
On your other point, Samsung doesn't have 'every bit of technology' that Huawei has and while it is catching up somewhat (very, very recently) its past failings were precisely a result of spending too much time without that technology.
Now it has a competitive flagship range. How they sell is a different story but if you don't have a compelling phone in the first place, obviously it will be harder to sell.
Apple is in that situation now.
Also, elaborate on why you think that a 900 million and growing user base for iPhone will happily transition to the wild world of Android OS.
SuperSpectrum Sensor and low light performance
Periscope Zoom
AIIS
Dual Video
Also:
3D depth sensing and live modelling
Fastest LTE modem
Fastest wi-fi
Multimode 5G best in class modem
And, drum roll....
IR Blaster! ;-)
That's off the top of my head.
No one is even talking about transitioning to the 'wild world' of Android. It's about taking share away from Android