I'd assume that Apple would be happy to get more leading edge fab capacity in the future, especially from Intel, to burnish its "made in U.S.A" credentials, if nothing else.
TSMC is building a fabrication plant in Arizona to be finished in a few years. And TSMC will have 3nm on the market before Intel even moves to 7nm. Which would you think Apple would consider "leading edge."
TSMC will have a 5 nm capable plant in Arizona. All newer, higher density, nodes will be sourced thru TSMC Taiwan
The problem with simply posting Intel’s roadmap here is that the news is two-fold. Not only is Intel disclosing the state of its technology for the next several years, but the names of the technology are changing to better align with common industry norms.
It is no secret that having "Intel 10nm" being equivalent to "TSMC 7nm", even though the numbers actually have nothing to do with the physical implementation, has ground at Intel for a while. A lot of the industry, for whatever reason, hasn’t learned that these numbers aren’t actually a physical measurement. They used to be, but when we moved from 2D planar transistors to 3D FinFET transistors, the numbers became nothing more than a marketing tool. Despite this, every time there’s an article about the technology, people get confused. We’ve been talking about it for half a decade, but the confusion still remains.
To that end, Intel is renaming its future process nodes. Here’s the roadmap image, but I’ll be breaking it down piece by piece.
2020, Intel 10nm SuperFin (10SF): Current generation technology in use with Tiger Lake and Intel’s Xe-LP discrete graphics solutions (SG1, DG1). The name stays the same.
2021 H2, Intel 7: Previously known as 10nm Enhanced Super Fin or 10ESF. Alder Lake and Sapphire Rapids will now be known as Intel 7nm products, showcasing a 10-15% performance per watt gain over 10SF due to transistor optimizations. Alder Lake is currently in volume production. Intel’s Xe-HP will now be known as an Intel 7 product.
2022 H2, Intel 4: Previously known as Intel 7nm. Intel earlier this year stated that its Meteor Lake processor will use a compute tile based on this process node technology, and the silicon is now back in the lab being tested. Intel expects a 20% performance per watt gain over the previous generation, and the technology uses more EUV, mostly in the BEOL. Intel’s next Xeon Scalable product, Granite Rapids, will also use a compute tile based on Intel 4.
2023 H2, Intel 3: Previously known as Intel 7+. Increased use of EUV and new high density libraries. This is where Intel’s strategy becomes more modular – Intel 3 will share some features of Intel 4, but enough will be new enough to describe this a new full node, in particular new high performance libraries. Nonetheless, a fast follow on is expected. Another step up in EUV use, Intel expects a manufacturing ramp in the second half of 2023 with an 18% performance per watt gain over Intel 4.
2024, Intel 20A: Previously known as Intel 5nm. Moving to double digit naming, with the A standing for Ångström, or 10A is equal to 1nm. Few details, but this is where Intel will move from FinFETs to its version of Gate-All-Around (GAA) transistors called RibbonFETs. Also Intel will debut a new PowerVia technology, described below.
2025, Intel 18A: Not listed on the diagram above, but Intel is expecting to have an 18A process in 2025. 18A will be using ASML’s latest EUV machines, known as High-NA machines, which are capable of more accurate photolithography. Intel has stated to us that it is ASML’s lead partner when it comes to High-NA, and is set to receive the first production model of a High-NA machine. ASML recently announced High-NA was being delayed- when asked if this was an issue, Intel said no, as the timelines for High-NA and 18A are where Intel expects to intersect and have unquestioned leadership.
Intel has confirmed to us that Intel 3 and Intel 20A will be offered to foundry customers (but hasn’t stated if Intel 4 or Intel 7 will be).
To bring this altogether in a single table, with known products, we have the following:
Intel's Process Node Technology
Old Name
New Name
Roadmap
Products
Features
10SF
10SF
Today
Tiger Lake SG1 DG1 Xe-HPC Base Tile Agilex-F/I FPGA
SuperMIM Thin Film Barrier Volume 10nm On sale today
10ESF
Intel 7
2021 H2 products
Alder Lake (21) Raptor Lake (22)? Sapphire Rapids (22) Xe-HP Xe-HPC IO Tile
10-15% PPW Upgraded FinFET ADL in Ramp today
7nm
Intel 4
2022 H2 ramp 2023 H1 products
Meteor Compute Tile Granite Compute Tile
20% PPW vs 7 More EUV Silicon in Lab
7+
Intel 3
2023 H2 products
-
18% PPW vs 4 Area Savings More EUV New Perf Libraries Faster Follow On
5nm
Intel 20A
2024
-
RibbonFET PowerVia
5+
Intel 18A
2025
Unquestioned Leadership
2nd Gen Ribbon High NA EUV
It still may be the case that TSMC will remain the leader transitioning to "angstrom" nodes. I only point out that Intel isn't actually out of the competition; they were more correctly, unwilling to work with fabless customers like Apple, Qualcomm, and Nvidia, and they were known to have driven into a 10nm (7nm TSMC equivalent) ditch half a decade ago, that they are just now exiting.
Maybe having a subsidiary that purely focuses on fabricating, like TSMC, could be beneficial to Intel itself? This would mean the parent company would focus purely on designing the chips and then simply be a primary client to the subsidiary. The subsidiary in the meantime would have the mandate of becoming the best chip fabricator out there, like TSMC, and with the ability to manufacture for anyone would have the incentive to invest early in new technology. Also by having them separate, then hopefully internal politics wouldn’t compromise working with other partners. .
There are probably a lot of details I am missing, but right now something clearly needs to change.
As for Samsung, they may be one company by name, but like a number of Asian corporations operate like many companies under one roof. This means while you are competing with one division, you are nicely doing business with another.
Yes, many don’t know that Samsung made cars, now under Renault Samsung, in the real estate industry and so much more in Korea. Hyundai too and many other Chaebols.
Intel's best efforts now are like a carburated V8 with a three speed manual transmission up against a fuel injected turbocharged V8 with a ten speed automatic.
Comments
https://www.anandtech.com/show/16823/intel-accelerated-offensive-process-roadmap-updates-to-10nm-7nm-4nm-3nm-20a-18a-packaging-foundry-emib-foveros
https://images.anandtech.com/doci/16823/Intel Accelerated Briefings FINAL-page-006.jpg
2020, Intel 10nm SuperFin (10SF): Current generation technology in use with Tiger Lake and Intel’s Xe-LP discrete graphics solutions (SG1, DG1). The name stays the same.
2021 H2, Intel 7: Previously known as 10nm Enhanced Super Fin or 10ESF. Alder Lake and Sapphire Rapids will now be known as Intel 7nm products, showcasing a 10-15% performance per watt gain over 10SF due to transistor optimizations. Alder Lake is currently in volume production. Intel’s Xe-HP will now be known as an Intel 7 product.
2022 H2, Intel 4: Previously known as Intel 7nm. Intel earlier this year stated that its Meteor Lake processor will use a compute tile based on this process node technology, and the silicon is now back in the lab being tested. Intel expects a 20% performance per watt gain over the previous generation, and the technology uses more EUV, mostly in the BEOL. Intel’s next Xeon Scalable product, Granite Rapids, will also use a compute tile based on Intel 4.
2023 H2, Intel 3: Previously known as Intel 7+. Increased use of EUV and new high density libraries. This is where Intel’s strategy becomes more modular – Intel 3 will share some features of Intel 4, but enough will be new enough to describe this a new full node, in particular new high performance libraries. Nonetheless, a fast follow on is expected. Another step up in EUV use, Intel expects a manufacturing ramp in the second half of 2023 with an 18% performance per watt gain over Intel 4.
2024, Intel 20A: Previously known as Intel 5nm. Moving to double digit naming, with the A standing for Ångström, or 10A is equal to 1nm. Few details, but this is where Intel will move from FinFETs to its version of Gate-All-Around (GAA) transistors called RibbonFETs. Also Intel will debut a new PowerVia technology, described below.
2025, Intel 18A: Not listed on the diagram above, but Intel is expecting to have an 18A process in 2025. 18A will be using ASML’s latest EUV machines, known as High-NA machines, which are capable of more accurate photolithography. Intel has stated to us that it is ASML’s lead partner when it comes to High-NA, and is set to receive the first production model of a High-NA machine. ASML recently announced High-NA was being delayed- when asked if this was an issue, Intel said no, as the timelines for High-NA and 18A are where Intel expects to intersect and have unquestioned leadership.
Intel has confirmed to us that Intel 3 and Intel 20A will be offered to foundry customers (but hasn’t stated if Intel 4 or Intel 7 will be).
To bring this altogether in a single table, with known products, we have the following:
SG1
DG1
Xe-HPC Base Tile
Agilex-F/I FPGA
Thin Film Barrier
Volume 10nm
On sale today
Raptor Lake (22)?
Sapphire Rapids (22)
Xe-HP
Xe-HPC IO Tile
Upgraded FinFET
ADL in Ramp today
2023 H1 products
Granite Compute Tile
More EUV
Silicon in Lab
Area Savings
More EUV
New Perf Libraries
Faster Follow On
PowerVia
High NA EUV
It still may be the case that TSMC will remain the leader transitioning to "angstrom" nodes. I only point out that Intel isn't actually out of the competition; they were more correctly, unwilling to work with fabless customers like Apple, Qualcomm, and Nvidia, and they were known to have driven into a 10nm (7nm TSMC equivalent) ditch half a decade ago, that they are just now exiting.