'Apple Car' will disrupt auto industry, says Morgan Stanley

AppleInsider · November 19, 2021 2:31PM

Investment bank Morgan Stanley has advised clients it expects the forthcoming "Apple Car" to be the "ultimate EV bear case," and affect stocks in rival automotive companies.

One possible design for an "Apple Car," as rendered by Motor Trends

Following its prediction that Apple will be a "game changer" in augmented reality, Morgan Stanley researchers see the same happening with the "Apple Car," but at a slower pace. According to two separate investor notes seen by AppleInsider, Morgan Stanley describes Apple as the "ultimate EV bear case," derailing other popular car stocks.

Backing up the recent claim by Bloomberg that Apple will launch a fully autonomous vehicle in 2025, Morgan Stanley's analyst sees few initial sales that year, before growing considerably.

Describing the whole market, not just Apple, Jonas said that he expects"L5," or fully-autonomous vehicles, to take some years to become major sellers.

"We expect... vehicle penetration to ramp very slowly due to a host of technological and moral/legal/regulatory considerations," he said. "By FY25 we forecast L5 fully autonomous vehicle sales to be roughly 100k units with the vast majority being outside of the US."

"By 2030, we forecast L5 sales to surpass 1.8mm units (2% penetration of sales), 0.4% of the global car park and 0.5% of global miles traveled," continued the analyst. "By 2040 we forecast L5 penetration to reach 7.6% of global miles traveled. By 2050 we forecast L5 to approach 47% of miles traveled."

Morgan Stanley also believes that it's unlikely an "Apple Car" will be one that is bought by individuals. Instead, it will be shared in some way.

"We believe a car without steering wheel or pedals must be a 'shared service' and not an 'owned car,'" Jonas said. "To be clear, we do not believe consumers will own title to a fully autonomous car... but will engage in the service as a subscription or transport utility."

Again referring to the entire market instead of solely Apple, Morgan Stanley predicts that global miles travelled in electric vehicles "to grow to 15 trillion miles by 2030 (vs. 12tn today)." The investment back then estimates "20 trillion miles by 2040 and 29tn by 2050."

Morgan Stanley estimates that together, car drivers and passengers "spend more than 600 billion hours in cars every year."

"What's the value of a human hour of time traveling in an Apple car?" asks Jonas. "We don't know. But 600bn hours times anything is a very large number."

Separately, Morgan Stanley's Jonas and Katy Huberty have previously predicted that Apple will have a hand in every detail of the "Apple Car," rather than outsourcing.

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jwsc · November 19, 2021 2:50PM

Aah. The return of an old friend. The “Fugly Car.”

I believe their take on a car without a steering wheel is on target.

john-useless · November 19, 2021 3:14PM

OMG, AppleInsider, will you please stop using that Motor Trend image whenever Apple's rumored car comes up? That awful rendering looks like the answer to "What would a Saturn electric vehicle have looked like in 1998?" That's a question nobody would ever have wanted answered, and it burns my eyes (even as a former Saturn owner) every time I see it. Apple would never have released such a breathtakingly ugly vehicle, not even in 1998.

I know you need art for these stories and that there are no spy shots of an actual Apple vehicle available yet. Instead, please have your graphic designer come up with additional futuristic cars in silhouette with a glowing Apple logo on the grill. That will do nicely, thank you!

darkvader · November 19, 2021 3:18PM

They're nuts.

Sure, a few people are going to be fine not owning a car. Most of those people already don't own a car today. Uber is a thing, taxis are a thing, buses are a thing, you can have somebody else drive you around if you want. And yes, autonomous taxis will be a thing.

But Americans at least are NOT going to give up on the concept of personal car ownership. If you own the car, it's there when you need it, you have the freedom to make last minute plan changes. And (this is really important) you can leave your stuff in it. You don't have to worry about whether you left something in the taxi. If you're going somewhere that you need more stuff than you want to carry into where you're going, you can leave the rest in the car and get it later if you need it.

The concept that Americans are going to give up owning cars is as crazy as the concept that most Americans would give up on owning homes.

avon b7 · November 19, 2021 3:21PM

There won't be any disruption. At least from one brand. The entire self driving industry is moving to exactly the same goals so any disruption will be from self driving cars as an industry segment. The question is who will be first out of the gate and how well the cars function. The remaining players will get there at some point and self driving vehicles (of any type) will find their niche and grow.

jwsc · November 19, 2021 3:24PM

darkvader said:

They're nuts.

Sure, a few people are going to be fine not owning a car. Most of those people already don't own a car today. Uber is a thing, taxis are a thing, buses are a thing, you can have somebody else drive you around if you want. And yes, autonomous taxis will be a thing.

But Americans at least are NOT going to give up on the concept of personal car ownership. If you own the car, it's there when you need it, you have the freedom to make last minute plan changes. And (this is really important) you can leave your stuff in it. You don't have to worry about whether you left something in the taxi. If you're going somewhere that you need more stuff than you want to carry into where you're going, you can leave the rest in the car and get it later if you need it.

The concept that Americans are going to give up owning cars is as crazy as the concept that most Americans would give up on owning homes.

Well, I agree with them that a vehicle without a steering wheel would likely be a shared service. But it’s not clear that Apple will release a car without one, even if it is FSD capable.

ireland · November 19, 2021 3:41PM

The infamous bread-loaf mockup.

mjtomlin · November 19, 2021 3:47PM

darkvader said:

They're nuts.

Sure, a few people are going to be fine not owning a car. Most of those people already don't own a car today. Uber is a thing, taxis are a thing, buses are a thing, you can have somebody else drive you around if you want. And yes, autonomous taxis will be a thing.

But Americans at least are NOT going to give up on the concept of personal car ownership. If you own the car, it's there when you need it, you have the freedom to make last minute plan changes. And (this is really important) you can leave your stuff in it. You don't have to worry about whether you left something in the taxi. If you're going somewhere that you need more stuff than you want to carry into where you're going, you can leave the rest in the car and get it later if you need it.

The concept that Americans are going to give up owning cars is as crazy as the concept that most Americans would give up on owning homes.

Maybe you're missing something that could possibly disrupt ride sharing, car rental and the automotive industry?

What if Apple creates a service where you can not only catch a ride, but possibly even rent the car for X amount of hours or days?

dewme · November 19, 2021 3:50PM

JWSC said:

Aah. The return of an old friend. The “Fugly Car.”

I believe their take on a car without a steering wheel is on target.

I was kind of missing the old Jellybeanmobile. If Jony Ive were to do a road-ready redesign of the Lost In Space Chariot from the 1960s, this is pretty much what I’d expect it would look like. Hopefully it will be available in Rose Gold, (Lost In) Space Gray, Purple, and (PRODUCT) RED.

cpenzone · November 19, 2021 4:23PM

avon b7 said:

There won't be any disruption. At least from one brand. The entire self driving industry is moving to exactly the same goals so any disruption will be from self driving cars as an industry segment. The question is who will be first out of the gate and how well the cars function. The remaining players will get there at some point and self driving vehicles (of any type) will find their niche and grow.

Ah yes because when Apple enters markets there is rarely disruption 🤨

Look up the quotes form the Palm CEO when there were rumors Apple might enter the phone market. Then look up the value of Palm.

maciekskontakt · November 19, 2021 4:23PM

As long as the car will not tell passenger: "You should go there - we are not going where you want. It will be better for you." Too autonomous.

mustseeuhdtv · November 19, 2021 4:50PM

I wonder if when there are autonomous taxis, will there still be a Tip amount question?

If there is a Tip Amount question and you don't pay, it will be like the most recent X-Files episode several years ago, when Mulder goes into an automated Sushi restaurant and does not tip. Then every single autonomous service product goes after him........

edited November 2021

jimh2 · November 19, 2021 5:35PM

Apple sells to consumers so the idea this will not be for them is wrong. Consumers are their only target customer and that will not change.

The Apple car will have no trouble selling no matter what the price. We’re I a car manufacturer I’d think “Blackberry and Motorola” and be real worried. The industry titans are going to fall with very few being left the dust settles. You look at Tesla’s competition after 12+ years are their still is not any.

anantksundaram · November 19, 2021 7:24PM

Dear God... not that picture again...

davidlewis54 · November 19, 2021 7:49PM

I really hope no car actually looks like that.

paxman · November 19, 2021 11:11PM

darkvader said:
The concept that Americans are going to give up owning cars is as crazy as the concept that most Americans would give up on owning homes.

Apparently cars spend on average 95% of their existence parked in the driveway, so it is a not really a great investment to own a car. (Just out of interest the average use time of an electric drill is something like 15 minutes

) Maybe if a car subscription service turns out to be more economical even Americans will figure it out. I seem to remember no-one thinking not actually owning their music or books was a good idea. I am sure the subscription car idea will be slow to evolve but I am sure it will happen. 'Hey Siri - car please' By the time you are out the door it's ready to take you where you want to go. No parking involved. Sounds awesome to me.

edited November 2021

waveparticle · November 19, 2021 11:56PM

darkvader said:

They're nuts.

Sure, a few people are going to be fine not owning a car. Most of those people already don't own a car today. Uber is a thing, taxis are a thing, buses are a thing, you can have somebody else drive you around if you want. And yes, autonomous taxis will be a thing.

But Americans at least are NOT going to give up on the concept of personal car ownership. If you own the car, it's there when you need it, you have the freedom to make last minute plan changes. And (this is really important) you can leave your stuff in it. You don't have to worry about whether you left something in the taxi. If you're going somewhere that you need more stuff than you want to carry into where you're going, you can leave the rest in the car and get it later if you need it.

The concept that Americans are going to give up owning cars is as crazy as the concept that most Americans would give up on owning homes.

The first interaction of Apple Car will compete with taxis, Ubers, and limousine services. These are the times people don't drive a car. Maybe buses too.

fallenjt · November 20, 2021 2:46AM

With that car in the picture? Sure.😂😂😂

rogue01 · November 20, 2021 3:59AM

waveparticle said:

darkvader said:

They're nuts.

Sure, a few people are going to be fine not owning a car. Most of those people already don't own a car today. Uber is a thing, taxis are a thing, buses are a thing, you can have somebody else drive you around if you want. And yes, autonomous taxis will be a thing.

But Americans at least are NOT going to give up on the concept of personal car ownership. If you own the car, it's there when you need it, you have the freedom to make last minute plan changes. And (this is really important) you can leave your stuff in it. You don't have to worry about whether you left something in the taxi. If you're going somewhere that you need more stuff than you want to carry into where you're going, you can leave the rest in the car and get it later if you need it.

The concept that Americans are going to give up owning cars is as crazy as the concept that most Americans would give up on owning homes.

The first interaction of Apple Car will compete with taxis, Ubers, and limousine services. These are the times people don't drive a car. Maybe buses too.

Hey Siri, take me to the stadium. Siri, "I'm sorry, I don't know how to do that. But here is something I found on the web." That is pretty much how it would go. Apple will also claim a bunch of features, then say none of them will be available at launch. No one would be able to afford an Apple Car anyway.

outdoorappdeveloper · November 20, 2021 5:35AM

The Apple Car service will not disrupt the industry in 2025. The reason is that by then there will be several other autonomous taxi services on the road. Not only that, Apple Car will likely be rolled out in certain select markets, kind of like gigabit fiber internet. This will have to be very limited at first as it will take Apple time to have their software learn the roads in each area. Apple will likely target high income, high tech areas with limited weather conditions, as Google Waymo did in Arizona. So not at all disruptive to anything other than a few taxi drivers.

irenew · November 20, 2021 6:59AM

It's bothering that "analysts" and "researchers" from these large firms seem to have no idea how long it takes to get a real, physical, car on the road.

My company works as a subcontractor for several major automotive OEMs, so I have some idea what the roadmap looks like in 2025/2026, and how far their development and test drives are. Sure, you can compare to Testa instead, that managed to get their first cars out in record time, but then it was not really their own base platform. And, for any kind of autonomous car you need huge amounts of driving experience to get anywhere close to certification (and don't even think of L5 as your first step into these waters)...

'Apple Car' will disrupt auto industry, says Morgan Stanley

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