Kuo doubts rumored TSMC iPhone 14 chip order reduction

Posted:
in iPhone
A prominent analyst covering Apple doubts claims made in a rumor that the company has cut down its iPhone 14 orders, insisting that such a major supply chain event is unlikely to occur as reported.




On Friday, a report emerged about Apple chip partner TSMC, which has allegedly seen orders from three major clients reduced. AMD, Nvidia, and Apple, are all supposedly reducing their spending over a claimed downturn in demand.

The report by DigiTimes specifies that Apple has reduced the first wave of mass production of the iPhone 14 range by 10%, down from 90 million units.

TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo responded to the report early on Saturday, with a tweet thread insisting that the rumored 10% cut "is not aligned with my survey" of the supply chain. Rather than a reduction, Kuo instead maintains a shipment forecast for the iPhone 14 in the second half of 2022 at around 100 million and 90 million units "for components and EMS, respectively."

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My take for the rumored TSMC's iPhone 14 orders cut by 10%.

1. Rumored TSMC's iPhone 14 orders cut by 10% is not aligned with my survey. I currently maintain my 2H22 shipment forecast for iPhone 14, about 100 mn and 90 mn units for components and EMS, respectively.

-- (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo)


In explaining the difference of opinion, Kuo points out that Apple shipment forecasts commonly receive "single-digit" increases and decreases, including for new models before mass production.

Furthermore, "Apple doesn't usually markedly change shipment forecasts for new iPhones" by double-digit percentage changes before release. Kuo say it waits until it launches new models and can confirm "actual market demand" before making such changes.

In the case of a supply chain issue causing a major shift in shipments for new iPhone models before mass production commences, Apple "usually postpones the orders instead of cutting them," Kuo offers.

Kuo also says the reasoning isn't just for iPhones, as it "also applies to Apple's other products."

The difference in opinion follows after Kuo posted details of a survey of Chinese distributors and retailers on June 30, indicating that the demand for the iPhone 14 "may be stronger than that of the iPhone 13" in the country.

Read on AppleInsider

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 6
    eriamjheriamjh Posts: 1,387member
    Every year like clockwork.   

    FileMakerFeller
  • Reply 2 of 6
    MadbumMadbum Posts: 145member
    Digitimes and Nikkei are paid outfits but Apple competitors like Samsung 

    listen to Kuo
  • Reply 3 of 6
    Madbum said:
    Digitimes and Nikkei are paid outfits but Apple competitors like Samsung 

    listen to Kuo
    No I listen to the quarterly results somewhere in January 2023. The rest is just people trying to manipulate stock markets.
    danox
  • Reply 4 of 6
    dewmedewme Posts: 4,387member
    One purveyor of rumors commenting on the rumors of other purveyors of rumors. Very nice but predictably unsatisfying. The paint is not dry yet, but keep a very close eye on it. It could dry at any moment. 
    FileMakerFeller
  • Reply 5 of 6
    netroxnetrox Posts: 1,221member
    I think there will be reductions for iPhones but the chip volume stays the same for other purposes like HomePods and AppleTV and any devices that benefit from new chips. It costs a fortune to have processors made and the larger the volume, the better and the fact that A15 is power efficient helps a great deal.  

  • Reply 6 of 6
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 6,339member
    There are a few technical breakthroughs that might come to market for some parts of the industry to better take advantage of cheaper manufacturing processes. Chip stacking seems to be one area. Chip stacking itself isn't novel but I hear the process has been made more efficient and cheaper. More use of chiplets is another.

    Probably not suited to Apple, though at this point. 
    edited July 5
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