Apple playing chess, while others play checkers in march to $3 trillion

AppleInsiderAppleInsider
Posted:
in General Discussion edited June 2023

Analysts at investment firm Wedbush say Apple has fought back "against all odds" to once again be on the cusp of a $3 trillion market valuation -- and $4 trillion is in sight.




Apple was the first company to ever reach $3 trillion. It did so in January 2022. Over the following 12 months, its valuation dropped to under $2 trillion.

It is about to hit that mark again. Potentially, it may do so today, June 28.

"We note that Apple... then ultimately navigated a myriad [sic] of China supply chain challenges along with a softer macro over the last 18 months in Rock of Gibraltar fashion," writes Wedbush in a note seen by AppleInsider. "[Thus] Cook and Cupertino find themselves back against all odds (from the bear view) on the doorstep of the $3 trillion market cap threshold this week."

Wedbush maintains that it has correctly analysed Apple's fortunes -- in June 2023 it raised its stock target to $220 -- and that "the Street has severely underestimated the massive installed base upgrade opportunity around iPhone 14."

"Apple [is] playing chess while others play checkers," continue the analysts. "In FY24 the Cupertino stalwart is on pace to approach $100 billion of annual services revenue growing double digits which is a jaw dropping trajectory vs. the roughly $50 billion+ of services revenue that Apple was delivering only in FY20."

"We believe Apple's fair valuation could be in the $3.5 trillion range," says Wedbush, "with a bull case $4 trillion valuation by FY25."

Part of the reason for Wedbush's growth prediction is a belief that the App Store for the new Apple Vision Pro is "another expansion of the App Store moat down the road." The company also believes that Apple now has a "mini super cycle iPhone 15 ahead with roughly 25% of Apple's golden customer base not upgrading their iPhones in over 4 years."

The forthcoming iPhone 15 range is also just part of a raft of products Apple is expected to release by the end of 2024.

At time of writing, Apple's stock market valuation is at $2.95 trillion.

Read on AppleInsider

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 13
    GrannySmith99GrannySmith99 Posts: 45member

    Analysts at investment firm Wedbush say Apple has fought back "against all odds" to once again be on the cusp of a $3 trillion market valuation -- and $4 trillion is in sight.
    Apple was the first company to ever reach $3 trillion. It did so in January 2022. Over the following 12 months, its valuation dropped to under $2 million.



    I really don't think Apples valuation dropped to under 2 million! o
    williamlondonFileMakerFellerwatto_cobra
  • Reply 2 of 13
    davgregdavgreg Posts: 1,037member
    The current market is firmly in the hands of algo bot trading rather than traditional buy and hold investors.
    Be careful.
    ronnwatto_cobra
  • Reply 3 of 13
    NEO_STEPHENSNEO_STEPHENS Posts: 10member
    Just for the record, Microsoft did hit the $2.59 trillion mark earlier this month.
    williamlondondewme
  • Reply 4 of 13
    chasmchasm Posts: 3,306member
    NEO_STEPHENS said:
    Just for the record, Microsoft did hit the $2.59 trillion mark earlier this month.
    True, Apple is not the only company in a position to reach $3T at some point (possibly this week) — but I’m sure your point is big news over at MicrosoftInsider (AppleInsider’s ARCH-RIVAL!) :smile: 
    NEO_STEPHENSdanoxwilliamlondonFileMakerFellerwatto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 13
    NEO_STEPHENSNEO_STEPHENS Posts: 10member
    chasm said:
    :p said:
    Just for the record, Microsoft did hit the $2.59 trillion mark earlier this month.
    True, Apple is not the only company in a position to reach $3T at some point (possibly this week) — but I’m sure your point is big news over at MicrosoftInsider (AppleInsider’s ARCH-RIVAL!) :smile: 
     :p 
    williamlondon
  • Reply 6 of 13
    danoxdanox Posts: 2,874member
    chasm said:
    Just for the record, Microsoft did hit the $2.59 trillion mark earlier this month.
    True, Apple is not the only company in a position to reach $3T at some point (possibly this week) — but I’m sure your point is big news over at MicrosoftInsider (AppleInsider’s ARCH-RIVAL!) :smile: 
    That’s where the non vertical wannabes hang out for tech news, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Dell, Intel, Nvidia, AMD, Dell, and Samsung hang out……… :smile: 
    edited June 2023 williamlondonwatto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 13
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,843moderator
    “ Apple was the first company to ever reach $3 trillion. It did so in January 2022. Over the following 12 months, its valuation dropped to under $2 trillion.

    It is about to hit that mark again.”

    ————

    This well points out the investing tenet that a company and its stock are not the same.  Apple remained Apple throughout a period of tremendous economic and stock market upheaval.  There should have been little doubt during the turbulent times that Apple’s stock price would rebound to once again reflect the value of the underlying business.   That’s Buffett 101 stuff.  No analysts required.  

    jony0FileMakerFellerpscooter63watto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 13
    techridertechrider Posts: 102member
    The difference between a million and a billion

    One million seconds = 11.5 days
    One billion seconds = 31.7 years
    One trillion seconds = 3,154 years

    For a person making a decent salary of $100K/year, making 10 million isn’t likely in their lifetime. 
    edited June 2023 watto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 13
    waveparticlewaveparticle Posts: 1,497member
    191 is the AAPL price that Apple market value hits 3 trillion dollars. 
    edited June 2023 watto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 13
    cg27cg27 Posts: 213member
    techrider said:
    The difference between a million and a billion

    One million seconds = 11.5 days
    One billion seconds = 31.7 years
    One trillion seconds = 3,154 years

    For a person making a decent salary of $100K/year, making 10 million isn’t likely in their lifetime. 
    Nice example but you only got 1 out of 3 right:
    1 million seconds = 114 days
    1 trillion seconds = 31,709 years

    So the leap from billion to trillion seconds would make your point even more so.
    edited June 2023 ronnGrannySmith99pscooter63watto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 13
    dewmedewme Posts: 5,376member
    I like the premise of this article, i.e., chess vs checkers. But it’s not just relevant to how Apple approaches its external competitors, it also applies to how Apple approaches its internal decision making. 

    There’s alway a predictable level of teeth gnashing, complaints, and second guessing around some of the technical level, product level, and marketing level (which includes pricing) decisions Apple makes when it brings a product or service to market. 

    Admittedly, many of the points brought up by detractors are entirely correct and spot on. But very often, the negative consequences associated with Apple making decisions that we don’t agree with are costing Apple millions of dollars. 

    For example, the protracted delay in getting an Apple Silicon Mac Pro to market and its resulting technical compromises that eliminate it for contention in some narrowly defined market segments. That will result in Apple leaving some money on the table for others to scoop up. Millions. 

    While millions of dollars is significant, the core decisions that Apple makes to appeal to its broader customer base, new customers, and to get its products into its sales channels as quickly, effectively, and efficiently as possible are billions-of-dollars decisions. 

    Apple may be leaving some money on the table when it comes to millions-of-dollars decisions,. However the frequency and consistency with which Apple makes the right billions-of-dollars decisions is why they’re breaking into the the 3T club with nothing but growth on their horizon. 

    Someone else mentioned Microsoft. They are another company who finally brought in a leader who understood the difference between millions-of-dollars decisions and billions-of-dollars decisions. Microsoft used to play the small game, admittedly at massive volumes in the form of OEM licenses, but they finally hit a wall. Bringing in Satya Nadella changed Microsoft from playing the small game to playing the big game, I.e., steering the ship based on billions-of-dollars navigation and course corrections. Like Apple, the new focus seems to be working. 
    edited June 2023 pscooter63watto_cobramuthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 12 of 13
    chutzpahchutzpah Posts: 392member
    cg27 said:
    techrider said:
    The difference between a million and a billion

    One million seconds = 11.5 days
    One billion seconds = 31.7 years
    One trillion seconds = 3,154 years

    For a person making a decent salary of $100K/year, making 10 million isn’t likely in their lifetime. 
    Nice example but you only got 1 out of 3 right:
    1 million seconds = 114 days
    1 trillion seconds = 31,709 years

    So the leap from billion to trillion seconds would make your point even more so.
    I’m pretty sure the original figure for days was correct.
  • Reply 13 of 13
    cg27cg27 Posts: 213member
    chutzpah said:
    cg27 said:
    techrider said:
    The difference between a million and a billion

    One million seconds = 11.5 days
    One billion seconds = 31.7 years
    One trillion seconds = 3,154 years

    For a person making a decent salary of $100K/year, making 10 million isn’t likely in their lifetime. 
    Nice example but you only got 1 out of 3 right:
    1 million seconds = 114 days
    1 trillion seconds = 31,709 years

    So the leap from billion to trillion seconds would make your point even more so.
    I’m pretty sure the original figure for days was correct.
    Indeed, and to clarify in same unit of years:

    1 M sec = 0.03 yrs  (= 11.5 days)
    1 B sec = 31.7 yrs
    1 T sec = 31,709 yrs


    watto_cobraronn
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