Ming-Chi Kuo predicts a dim future for Apple Vision Pro

AppleInsiderAppleInsider
Posted:
in Apple Vision Pro

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that Apple Vision Pro shipments will be limited by a few key suppliers to half what's been predicted, and an update won't arrive until 2027.

Vision Pro at Apple Park
Vision Pro at Apple Park



In a Medium post on Tuesday, Ming-Chi Kuo is swinging wide with prognostications about the Apple Vision Pro headset.

Based on some component suppliers' maximum production capacity estimates, Vision Pro shipments in 2024 will be at most 400,000-600,000 units," Kuo claims. Apparently, the market expectation for shipments in 2024 is one million, according to Kuo.

He goes on to guess that Apple may have canceled a low-cost Apple Vision headset in 2025. He cites price for the Apple Vision Pro being a problem, leading to shipment growth of the first version of Apple's headset "not materializing."

Furthermore, he doesn't foresee mass production of a Vision Pro 2 headset until the first half of 2027. This suggests to him that there may be no hardware updates for the headset in over three years.

His primary concern appears to be explaining to potential users exactly why they need this product, despite being an "excellent experience."

"The Vision Pro may take longer than the market expects to become the next star product of the iPhone," Kuo concludes.

The $3499 Apple Vision Pro was announced at the 2023 WWDC. The software for it is still in beta, and CEO Tim Cook says that it is "on track" for early 2024 shipments.

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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 28
    XedXed Posts: 2,580member
    "His primary concern appears to be explaining to potential users exactly why they need this product, despite being an "excellent experience.""

    I'm certainly in that boat.
    muthuk_vanalingamdarkvadergrandact73
  • Reply 2 of 28
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 12,891member
    Kuo has absolutely no business insight into Apple strategy, pricing discussion, or decision-making. He only has leaking supply chain contacts. There’s zero way he can know what Apple is thinking strategically years in the future.
    edited September 2023 foregoneconclusionchasmthtmacxpressFileMakerFellerwatto_cobrajony0
  • Reply 3 of 28
    netroxnetrox Posts: 1,423member
    I am not sure why he makes that assumption. The Apple Vision Pro is targeted to developers, creators, designers, professionals, and serious hobbyists, not for the consumer public. 

    It will take time for Vision Pro to be refined and economical for the mass. 


    chasmFileMakerFellerwatto_cobrabyronljony0
  • Reply 4 of 28
    twolf2919twolf2919 Posts: 112member
    StrangeDays said:
    Kuo has absolutely no business insight into Apple strategy, pricing discussion, or decision-making. He only has leaking supply chain contacts. There’s zero way he can know what Apple is thinking strategically years in the future.
    Correction: he's got supply chain insights/contacts *and* common sense.  The latter alone enables anyone to forecast dismal sales for a $3500 toy with no mass market use case- no matter how good the experience.  He's, of course, purely guessing with regards to Vision Pro 2 coming out in the 2027 timeframe.  I'd submit that by that timeframe, Apple will have woken up and realized that Apple Glasses will be the only gadget with truly mass market appeal.  It is this product that everybody was hoping for in 2023 instead of the techno-tour-de-force that is Vision Pro.  Coincidentally, after the VP came out, there were rumors that Apple Glass had been pushed back to....2027 or so.
    darkvadergrandact73williamlondonwatto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 28
    XedXed Posts: 2,580member
    twolf2919 said:
    StrangeDays said:
    Kuo has absolutely no business insight into Apple strategy, pricing discussion, or decision-making. He only has leaking supply chain contacts. There’s zero way he can know what Apple is thinking strategically years in the future.
    Correction: he's got supply chain insights/contacts *and* common sense.  The latter alone enables anyone to forecast dismal sales for a $3500 toy with no mass market use case- no matter how good the experience.  He's, of course, purely guessing with regards to Vision Pro 2 coming out in the 2027 timeframe.  I'd submit that by that timeframe, Apple will have woken up and realized that Apple Glasses will be the only gadget with truly mass market appeal.  It is this product that everybody was hoping for in 2023 instead of the techno-tour-de-force that is Vision Pro.  Coincidentally, after the VP came out, there were rumors that Apple Glass had been pushed back to....2027 or so.
    So your common sense reply is that Apple will drop VR entirely and go with AR-only glasses?
    williamlondonFileMakerFellerwatto_cobrabyronl
  • Reply 6 of 28
    foregoneconclusionforegoneconclusion Posts: 2,690member
    twolf2919 said:
    StrangeDays said:
    Kuo has absolutely no business insight into Apple strategy, pricing discussion, or decision-making. He only has leaking supply chain contacts. There’s zero way he can know what Apple is thinking strategically years in the future.
    Correction: he's got supply chain insights/contacts *and* common sense.  The latter alone enables anyone to forecast dismal sales for a $3500 toy with no mass market use case- no matter how good the experience.
    ???? Ever looked at 4K OLED TV prices for larger sizes like 77" or higher? It's pretty obvious that there are people who will spend $3500 or more on a higher end TV experience.
    AfarstardanoxthtFileMakerFellerwatto_cobrabyronljony0
  • Reply 7 of 28
    chasmchasm Posts: 3,315member
    twolf2919 said:
    StrangeDays said:
    Kuo has absolutely no business insight into Apple strategy, pricing discussion, or decision-making. He only has leaking supply chain contacts. There’s zero way he can know what Apple is thinking strategically years in the future.
    Correction: he's got supply chain insights/contacts *and* common sense.  The latter alone enables anyone to forecast dismal sales for a $3500 toy with no mass market use case- no matter how good the experience. 
    I don’t recall any announcement by Apple that the Vision Pro is a “mass market” product on the scale of the iPhone. In fact, my recollection of the presentation was that it was pretty clearly aimed at the pro creator and developer markets — unless you also think the Mac Studio and Mac Pro are “expensive toys for the masses.”

    There are plenty of people with disposable income who don’t fall in that category who may buy one for other reasons … it’s cheaper than an 85” TV, for example, and technically “bigger.” There always are such people.

    But you appear to be completely ignoring the underlying concept behind the Vision Pro, which is spatial computing. Spatial computing won’t matter to the masses until closer to the end of the decade, but it is **vital** to start having and using tools to work with that concept in anticipation of the spatial AR glasses you and the rest of the consumer class are anticipating … and I think Apple made it as clear as they can without explicitly saying what their plans are that they believe spatial computing will fundamentally change some workplaces, work-from-home, and — eventually — real-world interaction.

    Think about most of the revolutionary consumer devices — they often start HUGE, and eventually become small — like home computers. The Vision Pro is the tool that will give you those AR+ sunglasses you are wanting in a few years. The Mac Pro you’d never buy is the tool that makes the advanced weather forecasting and filmmaking end-products (to name but two examples) you enjoy on your TV or iPad.

    I’d be surprised if Apple ever sells even a million Vision Pros, but **that’s not the device that will replace the iPhone.** It’s what the Vision Pro’s practical demonstration of the power of spatial computing that will bring us the products (like AR+ cellular-connected glasses) of the future*

    * Actually, Peter Capaldi in Doctor Who already demonstrated the product that will replace the iPhone. Go have a look.
    JapheywilliamlondonFileMakerFellerfastasleepwatto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 28
    mikethemartianmikethemartian Posts: 1,336member
    foregoneconclusion said:
    twolf2919 said:
    StrangeDays said:
    Kuo has absolutely no business insight into Apple strategy, pricing discussion, or decision-making. He only has leaking supply chain contacts. There’s zero way he can know what Apple is thinking strategically years in the future.
    Correction: he's got supply chain insights/contacts *and* common sense.  The latter alone enables anyone to forecast dismal sales for a $3500 toy with no mass market use case- no matter how good the experience.
    ???? Ever looked at 4K OLED TV prices for larger sizes like 77" or higher? It's pretty obvious that there are people who will spend $3500 or more on a higher end TV experience.
    Large TVs allow multiple people to sit and watch one screen.
    darkvadermuthuk_vanalingamwilliamlondon
  • Reply 9 of 28
    dewmedewme Posts: 5,391member
    twolf2919 said:
    Kuo has absolutely no business insight into Apple strategy, pricing discussion, or decision-making. He only has leaking supply chain contacts. There’s zero way he can know what Apple is thinking strategically years in the future.
    Correction: he's got supply chain insights/contacts *and* common sense.  The latter alone enables anyone to forecast dismal sales for a $3500 toy with no mass market use case- no matter how good the experience.
    ???? Ever looked at 4K OLED TV prices for larger sizes like 77" or higher? It's pretty obvious that there are people who will spend $3500 or more on a higher end TV experience.
    Since when did Apple start going after mass market use cases?  Apple has never gone after capturing the mass market with any of their products. They aren't trying to sell something that appeals to everyone, especially those consumers with a high degree of price sensitivity. Those consumers are being very well served by many other product vendors who collectively capture much more market share than Apple does. 

    Apple's focus is on delivering highly innovative, premium products for consumers who value the qualities that Apple's products deliver. This approach has allowed Apple to maintaining extraordinary levels of customer satisfaction and brand loyalty. Being able to rake in abundant profits in the premium segment of the market has been very good for Apple's bottom line. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

    The target price of the Vision Pro very much reinforces Apple's long standing go-to-market philosophy.  Apple knows going in that there won't be a Vision Pro landing in every household, business office, or development studio. Where it does land, however, I don't think there will be a lot of consternation about its price.
    danoxwilliamlondonFileMakerFellerwatto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 28
    aderutteraderutter Posts: 606member
    Nothing new here. Vision Pro will be great but not mass market, until a successor in at least a few years. 

    watto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 28
    danoxdanox Posts: 2,896member
    The success or failure of the Apple Vision Pro totally depends upon what it can actually do for that $3500. The cost of the Apple Vision Pro however is not much more than, the cost of a MacBook Pro, 27 inch iMac. or an iPad Pro.

    I think the killer features will be the spatial video recording (which was included on the 15 and the 15 Pro Max iPhones), sports, concerts, and movies. and since it has an M2 processor, it can run most of the Mac, iPad and iPhone software depending upon Apple. This new ecosystem is literally a developers paradise.

    I would also point out that Apple, with the introduction of the Apple Vision Pro, Apple also has the option of introducing a new video website (using the new technology). Not withstanding, the EU insisting that Apple share everything with their competitors.
    FileMakerFellerthtwatto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 28
    macxpressmacxpress Posts: 5,814member
    I don't think Apple meant for this to initially be a mass market device right off. I think they purposely priced it high so they didn't sell as many because they know it's going to be a pain in the ass to produce. This will take time to be successful. iPhone wasn't incredibly successful right away either. Patience people, patience. Apple always has a plan when releasing these things. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 13 of 28
    XedXed Posts: 2,580member
    macxpress said:
    I don't think Apple meant for this to initially be a mass market device right off. I think they purposely priced it high so they didn't sell as many because they know it's going to be a pain in the ass to produce. This will take time to be successful. iPhone wasn't incredibly successful right away either. Patience people, patience. Apple always has a plan when releasing these things. 
    I do agree that Apple priced this so it would sell out with as many as they could make, which seems to be based on how many displays Sony can produce in a given timeframe, but I can't agree that the iPhone wasn't an immediate success. Jobs said he wanted 1% of the the cell phone market, but that was all cell phones, and those devices sold out quickly that I seem to recall a class action against Apple because people felt "forced" to get the 4GB model when the 8GB model sold out (or some such entitled stupidity), and it was clear to most that the the iPhone changed the paradigm of the market and ushered in a new, main strain smartphone era even before it went on sale.
    FileMakerFellerwatto_cobra
  • Reply 14 of 28
    JapheyJaphey Posts: 1,767member
    chasm said:
    twolf2919 said:
    StrangeDays said:
    Kuo has absolutely no business insight into Apple strategy, pricing discussion, or decision-making. He only has leaking supply chain contacts. There’s zero way he can know what Apple is thinking strategically years in the future.
    Correction: he's got supply chain insights/contacts *and* common sense.  The latter alone enables anyone to forecast dismal sales for a $3500 toy with no mass market use case- no matter how good the experience. 
    I don’t recall any announcement by Apple that the Vision Pro is a “mass market” product on the scale of the iPhone. In fact, my recollection of the presentation was that it was pretty clearly aimed at the pro creator and developer markets — unless you also think the Mac Studio and Mac Pro are “expensive toys for the masses.”

    There are plenty of people with disposable income who don’t fall in that category who may buy one for other reasons … it’s cheaper than an 85” TV, for example, and technically “bigger.” There always are such people.

    But you appear to be completely ignoring the underlying concept behind the Vision Pro, which is spatial computing. Spatial computing won’t matter to the masses until closer to the end of the decade, but it is **vital** to start having and using tools to work with that concept in anticipation of the spatial AR glasses you and the rest of the consumer class are anticipating … and I think Apple made it as clear as they can without explicitly saying what their plans are that they believe spatial computing will fundamentally change some workplaces, work-from-home, and — eventually — real-world interaction.

    Think about most of the revolutionary consumer devices — they often start HUGE, and eventually become small — like home computers. The Vision Pro is the tool that will give you those AR+ sunglasses you are wanting in a few years. The Mac Pro you’d never buy is the tool that makes the advanced weather forecasting and filmmaking end-products (to name but two examples) you enjoy on your TV or iPad.

    I’d be surprised if Apple ever sells even a million Vision Pros, but **that’s not the device that will replace the iPhone.** It’s what the Vision Pro’s practical demonstration of the power of spatial computing that will bring us the products (like AR+ cellular-connected glasses) of the future*

    * Actually, Peter Capaldi in Doctor Who already demonstrated the product that will replace the iPhone. Go have a look.
    You should save this post so you can just copy and paste it into every rant by someone pissed off that the Vision Pro isn’t intended for them and yet somehow even more pissed that it’s not what they wanted. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 15 of 28
    foregoneconclusionforegoneconclusion Posts: 2,690member
    mikethemartian said:
    foregoneconclusion said:
    twolf2919 said:
    StrangeDays said:
    Kuo has absolutely no business insight into Apple strategy, pricing discussion, or decision-making. He only has leaking supply chain contacts. There’s zero way he can know what Apple is thinking strategically years in the future.
    Correction: he's got supply chain insights/contacts *and* common sense.  The latter alone enables anyone to forecast dismal sales for a $3500 toy with no mass market use case- no matter how good the experience.
    ???? Ever looked at 4K OLED TV prices for larger sizes like 77" or higher? It's pretty obvious that there are people who will spend $3500 or more on a higher end TV experience.
    Large TVs allow multiple people to sit and watch one screen.
    Sure. But if you pay $3500-$4,000 for a 77 inch 4K OLED then that's all that you're getting. If you want something bigger you'll have to spend additional thousands of dollars. AVP gives you movie theater to drive-in theater sized screens if you want. 
    FileMakerFellerthtwatto_cobra
  • Reply 16 of 28
    foregoneconclusionforegoneconclusion Posts: 2,690member

    dewme said:
    twolf2919 said:
    Kuo has absolutely no business insight into Apple strategy, pricing discussion, or decision-making. He only has leaking supply chain contacts. There’s zero way he can know what Apple is thinking strategically years in the future.
    Correction: he's got supply chain insights/contacts *and* common sense.  The latter alone enables anyone to forecast dismal sales for a $3500 toy with no mass market use case- no matter how good the experience.
    ???? Ever looked at 4K OLED TV prices for larger sizes like 77" or higher? It's pretty obvious that there are people who will spend $3500 or more on a higher end TV experience.
    Since when did Apple start going after mass market use cases?  Apple has never gone after capturing the mass market with any of their products. They aren't trying to sell something that appeals to everyone, especially those consumers with a high degree of price sensitivity. Those consumers are being very well served by many other product vendors who collectively capture much more market share than Apple does. 
    Obviously the AVP is not only being produced as a TV screen alternative. But I'm pointing out that the TV part alone has competitive value and consumer appeal. And Apple does have consumer entertainment functions now with Apple TV+ and all of the media content produced for it. 
    FileMakerFellerwatto_cobra
  • Reply 17 of 28
    Stabitha_ChristieStabitha_Christie Posts: 451member
    dewme said:
    twolf2919 said:
    Kuo has absolutely no business insight into Apple strategy, pricing discussion, or decision-making. He only has leaking supply chain contacts. There’s zero way he can know what Apple is thinking strategically years in the future.
    Correction: he's got supply chain insights/contacts *and* common sense.  The latter alone enables anyone to forecast dismal sales for a $3500 toy with no mass market use case- no matter how good the experience.
    ???? Ever looked at 4K OLED TV prices for larger sizes like 77" or higher? It's pretty obvious that there are people who will spend $3500 or more on a higher end TV experience.
    Since when did Apple start going after mass market use cases?  Apple has never gone after capturing the mass market with any of their products. They aren't trying to sell something that appeals to everyone, especially those consumers with a high degree of price sensitivity. Those consumers are being very well served by many other product vendors who collectively capture much more market share than Apple does. 

    Apple's focus is on delivering highly innovative, premium products for consumers who value the qualities that Apple's products deliver. This approach has allowed Apple to maintaining extraordinary levels of customer satisfaction and brand loyalty. Being able to rake in abundant profits in the premium segment of the market has been very good for Apple's bottom line. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

    The target price of the Vision Pro very much reinforces Apple's long standing go-to-market philosophy.  Apple knows going in that there won't be a Vision Pro landing in every household, business office, or development studio. Where it does land, however, I don't think there will be a lot of consternation about its price.
    You seem to be confusing mass market appeal with marketshare standings. Apple doesn't set out to be the number one maker of a widget but they still very much shoot for mass appeal for their flagship products  and will happily drop the ones that don't achieve it. iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch and Mac are all examples of products where Apple targets mass markets and in three of those they also hit number one in marketshare globally. 


    williamlondonFileMakerFellerwatto_cobra
  • Reply 18 of 28
    kdupuis77kdupuis77 Posts: 81member
    There are definitely use cases for enough people out there to make this product viable… otherwise, Apple would not be sinking R&D money into it lol. They know there is a market segment to exploit and eventually they will be able to bring the costs down to make it more affordable to the mass market, like many of their past devices. I am a merchant mariner myself, and I am dreaming of being able to slap a Vision Pro in my bag so I can have a 100” screen and surround sound strapped to my face while lying in my rack at night out to sea haha. A very limited usage case, but for example maybe you got some guys out there don’t have room for a giant screen in their apartments nor have someone they need to share it with eh? And my potential usage case is merely as a “toy”… there are plenty of professional uses for the Vision Pro with a larger potential customer base.
    foregoneconclusionfastasleepwatto_cobra
  • Reply 19 of 28
    mikethemartianmikethemartian Posts: 1,336member
    Has anyone consulted with Timbuk 3 yet on their outlook?
  • Reply 20 of 28
    InspiredCodeInspiredCode Posts: 403member
    The analysts don’t know anything for these low volume parts. Anything could happen. It is always possible it will ship with the M3 and not need a refresh for several years.

    I’m certainly buying one as early as possible in anticipation of it being supply constrained.

    Reviews have all been favorable. I’m sure Apple is planning to stick with the product for as long as it takes to become mass market.
    edited September 2023 watto_cobra
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