2003: year of the portables

transcendental octothorpe · January 7, 2003 2:20PM

So, does this really mean anything about Apple's focus this year? Or was it just for the keynote.

It sounds to me like Steve really thinks that their portables will gain on their desktop sales. If you are a pessimist, that could lead you to believe that Steve knows it is true because he also knows that Apple's desktop line will continue to stagnate.

Hmm, but I gues if you are an optimist, you just figure that it's because of the very complete portable lineup they have now.

What do you all think? Keynote fluff, or something more?

vr6 · January 7, 2003 2:27PM

[quote]Originally posted by Transcendental Octothorpe:

It sounds to me like Steve really thinks that their portables will gain on their desktop sales. <hr></blockquote>

Of course portable sales will gain on desktop sales. The PowerMac is hardly going to move this year because of the anticipation of a 970 based machine. The iMac, eMac lines have fizzled out and there isn't really any more to do with them other than lower their price and make them compatible with Airport Extreme (a feature much more applicable to portables) and Firewire 800.

This is going to be a slow year for Apple because motorola is making little to no progress on catching up MHz-wise to Intel. When the 970 is released in Q4 Apple will be able to finish the year on a very high note, but not enough to make up for the fact that laptop sales will hold still or grow while desktop sales will be falling.

(PS posted from Safari browser - very very good)

geddoe · January 8, 2003 12:12AM

Portables are one of the areas that Apple has an advantage in. Its good to see they finally recogise this fact and may do something with it.

tjm · January 8, 2003 12:36AM

I think Steve is putting the best face on the situation that he can. PMs are stagnant and hold little interest. They've segmented the PB market so they can hype the "new" products (little changed but for screen size). A yawner as far as computer hardware goes AFAIC.

No matter how much Steve tap-dances, the flagship product of the company is the PowerMac. This would be "The Year of the Desktop" if he had anything interesting going on with them. That he didn't was very telling. While I applaud them for trying to make lemonade out of lemons, it's still depressing to see.

What I found interesting: Airport Extreme (let's see if the industry follows Apple's lead again); FireWire 800 (NOT GigaWire - so that's still up in the air); and the Keynote/Safari apps (a shot across MicroSoft's bow).

I just hope this is the last year of wheel-spinning on the processor front. Lots of neat stuff on the horizon, but we've been saying that for about 3 years now and none of it's appeared. I really, really want to be knocked on my butt over a new uber-PM sometime soon. <img src="graemlins/hmmm.gif" border="0" alt="[Hmmm]" />

costique · January 8, 2003 1:22AM

Apple seems to be killing the iBook we know. Now, there are PowerBooks of all sizes, I can't help thinking that either this is the end to the iBook in general or a totally new iBook is coming. 2003 is more likely to become the year of portables if iBooks are indeed going to get a new form factor (a tablet? a flip-flop structure?).

biaachmonkie · January 8, 2003 2:36AM

[quote]Originally posted by costique:

Apple seems to be killing the iBook we know. Now, there are PowerBooks of all sizes, I can't help thinking that either this is the end to the iBook in general or a totally new iBook is coming. 2003 is more likely to become the year of portables if iBooks are indeed going to get a new form factor (a tablet? a flip-flop structure?).<hr></blockquote>

Why qould you think they are killing it, it just carries them down the price range on portables, giving them a nice smoth scale from $999 - $3299. For $999 the iBook is good tough little portable for travelers and kids/students.

[ 01-08-2003: Message edited by: biaachmonkie ]

costique · January 8, 2003 3:21AM

[quote]Originally posted by biaachmonkie:

Why would you think they are killing it, it just carries them down the price range on portables, giving them a nice smoth scale from $999 - $3299. For $999 the iBook is good tough little portable for travelers and kids/students.

<hr></blockquote>

From the standing point of price you are absolutely right. What I mean is PowerBooks now cover all the range of portables in terms of the form factor. It's almost twice as expensive to market and support two similar products (iBooks & PowerBooks). Don't forget about manufacturing costs: it's always cheaper to maintain one production line than two (iBooks & PowerBooks carry different motherboards and CPUs). Now compare specs for $1750 iBook and $1800 PowerBook and I think I'd go for the latter. Surely the $999 iBook is a killer but it needs more RAM on the shelf.

I may be wrong, still I just hope something is on the way.

eugene · January 8, 2003 3:33AM

It's not the year of the portables. Jobs is trying to sell his new product, of course he's going to give it its time in the limelight for a while. He's not about to announce that these new PowerBooks aren't the biggest thing coming this year.

stunned · January 8, 2003 4:34AM

I agree 2003 and the years beyond will see more portables sales, but Apple should not negelct its desktop lineup too.

Remember that the iMac did very well too. A updated and lower price iMac will definately do very well too!!

gardenofearthlydelights · January 8, 2003 4:43AM

[quote]Originally posted by Eugene:

It's not the year of the portables. Jobs is trying to sell his new product, of course he's going to give it its time in the limelight for a while. He's not about to announce that these new PowerBooks aren't the biggest thing coming this year.<hr></blockquote>

I tend to agree with this, because first and foremost, Steve is a carnival barker,

However, he is also a business man. I don't know what the margins on PBs are, but laptops typically have higher margins than desktops. If he can push more laptops out the door, he makes more money, and that makes the Street happy.

costique · January 8, 2003 5:02AM

[quote]Originally posted by GardenOfEarthlyDelights:

Steve is a carnival barker<hr></blockquote>

<img src="graemlins/lol.gif" border="0" alt="[Laughing]" />

matsu · January 8, 2003 6:41AM

Performace really was an issue holding back laptops in the past, but it's fading away, and the miniturization penalty is shrinking all the time. Used to be when laptops easily cost 3x what a desktop costs, while delivering half or less performance. They still deliver half the performance for intensive computations (1 CPU vs 2) but they're a lot farther along today than ever before. A consumer would hardly notice a difference when ripping a song, burning a CD, running office, even playing a game or some light photoshopping/illustration. I continue to ask why anyone would buy an AIO (at least the non-upgradeable Apple kind) over a laptop. What's the benefit? A little more speed and storage (that you won't notice after three years anyway) compared to a machine that can follow you around and be ready to go anywhere you need it.

The 17" TiBook is an ostentatious and yet remarkable engineered piece of kit. 6.8lbs!!! You know a competing product would come in at 12+ probably 15, and while it costs an obscene amount today, it's pretty much the writing on the wall for the iMac and its kind. Can't expand either one, the TiBook has at least as much room for electronic bits as the iMac does in its case, but only one travels easily. The TiBook is so wide in fact, that it would be entirely possible to fit a CPU daughetrcard to one end of the machine and a (cube like) AGP card to the other end and do a batteryless briefcase mac -- which I guarantee you is what the first imitators will be, and this time it might make more sense than usual in that few will use it as a "laptop," and many will employ it as a "portable" it could even make a nice 17" "desktop iBook."

Unless AIO's sprout some expansion (CPU, GPU, easily replaceable drives) they'll be played out in 5 years time. Laptops are the AIO you really want.

However, It would be suicidal for a company to simply abandone desktops, even as they begin to plunge to commodity levels. Towers with all their expansion and cost aren't that machine. But a simple cube, with easily replaceable drives, a couple of open RAM slots, open video and CPU slots, all wrapped in a simple & affordable package. Yep, that's the ticket.

Apple just won't be able to sell AIO's in the face of capable laptops and affordable desktops, but that's still a few years away.

masker · January 8, 2003 7:27AM

I think does his best to tell us 'the deal" without tipping his cards.

When he said "Thisis the year of the portables" I assumed the following:

? Apple will next update the iBooks with Bluetooth and maybe IBM's newer G3 chip and Airport extreme. (no lit keyboard)

? Powermacs would only get a speed bump maybe only to 1.4 in the high end, The real update to the PowerMacs will be MWSF next year or later...

? iMacs & eMacs may get minor spec changes or some ornamental design change and maybe 1.25 in the high end at some point this year.

In short, due to a lack of a faster processor, the only innovations to be made in non-portables are

? Bluetooth,

? maybe a fast 8X DVD writer

?Â*maybe true DDR but will wait for a 970 chip anyway)

? bigger LCD screens for desktop

? the iPod will get expanded greatly, the 600,000 tells us that

? I no longer believe in the Apple PDA unless it is a minor form factor change from the iPod or an embellishmen tto the iPod beyond software

? We have now seen Apple's 2 -3 consumer/pro lineup.

2 iBook sizes 12 and 14 inch screens, 3 PowerBook sizes 12, 15, 17, we have 2 iMacs the 15, and the 17 and here we see the hole for what is missing, the Power macs lineup.

I think w will see a low end Powermac & 17 inch combo* offered soon, a mid range Powermac with 23" screen combo soon, and in 2004 early (very early) we will see the X Stations. The Uber X tation will have the 42" LCD display available as a bundle.

* When I say combo I mean a very good price for both (compettive directly with PC pricing but with Apple design).

MSKR

luca · January 8, 2003 7:36AM

Excellent post, Matsu! A friend of mine was saying how he liked all this extra "complication" in Apple's lineup - instead of sticking to a rigid product matrix that forces mid-range users to either overspend or get an underpowered product, Apple is pushing an expanded matrix that still follows the general idea but has offshoots that can appeal to nearly every customer.

AIOs seem outdated now, with laptops on one side and cheap home-built PCs on the other. The only advantage they offer is low price compared to laptops if you don't need the mobility, but Apple has taken so long to update them that now even that isn't an advantage. If you remember, though, the iMac was an amazing deal when it was released. For a month or so, the high-end 800 MHz one provided about the same performance as the low end PowerMac (733 MHz) but with a 15" LCD and a SuperDrive as well - which would have cost nearly $1000 extra on the PowerMac. Now, of course, the iMac is a terrible deal? it's the 14" iBook of Apple's desktop line. They need to move it or lose it.

One thing I think is funny is that the PowerBook G4 (15" and 17") is actually more expandable than the iMac. You can easily upgrade the hard drive, add a PC card for USB 2, SCSI, or something else, or bring the RAM to 1 GB without bringing it into a service center.

xype · January 8, 2003 7:57AM

When was DDR-II supposed to come along? Wont nVidia use it in it's GeForce FX? When will the FX come out? And the G4 with a built-in memory controller? ATI Radeon 9700 on a smaller process? Serial ATA?

I doubt all of these will only come in 2004. And I think when they come, Apple will use some them in their PowerMac line. The dual 1.25 machine is reportedly very snappy to work with and _if_ apple comes up with a dual 1.4 ghz that'd be .2 ghz shy of a 3ghz, 100 watt Pentium 4. And better for multithreaded apps. :cool:

macnn sux · January 8, 2003 1:42PM

I just think that for the price Apple charges...

We should be truly getting some of the best equipment, standards and tech like in the latest PC machines.

We just started to get DDR Ram last year. Sad.

go to comments section and tell them how we are not satisfied

<a href="http://www.apple.com/contact/feedback.html"; target="_blank">http://www.apple.com/contact/feedback.html</a>;

t'hain esh kelch · January 8, 2003 3:27PM

[quote]Originally posted by Masker:

? We have now seen Apple's 2 -3 consumer/pro lineup.

2 iBook sizes 12 and 14 inch screens, 3 PowerBook sizes 12, 15, 17, we have 2 iMacs the 15, and the 17 and here we see the hole for what is missing, the Power macs lineup.

I think w will see a low end Powermac & 17 inch combo* offered soon, a mid range Powermac with 23" screen combo soon, and in 2004 early (very early) we will see the X Stations.

* When I say combo I mean a very good price for both (compettive directly with PC pricing but with Apple design).<hr></blockquote>

Well.. Then what about a cube..? <img src="graemlins/bugeye.gif" border="0" alt="[Skeptical]" />

jade · January 10, 2003 6:04PM

I think Jobs is looking at the numbers. worldwide desktop pc sales are slipping and laptops are increasingly making up a larger percentage of new computers sold. Even with kick-butt desktop computers availible people are choosing notebooks. The vast majority of people never upgrade their computers anyway and do not really need exspansion slots. MAny household also have multiple computers in many rooms of the house. Would you rather have a clunky desktop on every table of the house or a few book size computers. I think overall people are moving to laptops. WE have college students who use notebooks as their primary machines and when they graduate they do not want to give up the portability and flexibility. Jobs is just preparing for the upcoming rush.

pscates · January 10, 2003 6:25PM

This is funny: a few days before the keynote I was talking to a buddy about laptops, saying that I think THOSE are kinda where it's at. People are so busy and just run around all the time (work, family obligations, school, travel, hobbies, etc.).

With the exception of people doing serious, hardcore graphics work (needing the horsepower, expansion, etc. a tower allows), MOST people would be served well by a good laptop.

I know I would.

Especially now that Apple is really touting the whole "digital hub" and "lifestyle" aspect of all your music, photos, etc. being on a computer and all, I know that I absolutely HATE being without my Mac for any amount of time. If I'm going to be away from home more than a day or so, I'll actually lug this silly LCD iMac with me (like I am right now, typing this from a friend's apartment while I'm here for the weekend). But I'd MUCH rather just close up a little paper-sized computer and slide it into a bag.

My entire life, pretty much, is on this thing: music, writing, illustration and design, finances, contacts, e-mail, resume, freelance work, etc.

If laptops can get to where they're pretty much line with desktops (and for MOST people, including me, they are!), then I totally believe what Steve said about notebooks during the keynote.

I'd be willing to bet that - except for the gearheads, techies and number/spec hounds - if given a choice of a free computer, the majority of people would probably opt for a laptop.

On top of all this, you also have large chunks of cities or buildings and hotels geared up with wireless Internet access and stuff. To be able to go, sit down in a city park or courtyard and fire up the laptop and have access to everything you're accustomed to (news, stocks, e-mail, downloads, etc.)...who wouldn't want a laptop?

2003 (and 2004, 2005, etc.) probably IS the era of the portable. They're getting faster, more powerful, come packed with all the things you'd expect/need on your desktop (Ethernet, FireWire, CD-R, Combo or SuperDrives, etc.) plus portable-friendly things like Bluetooth and AirPort.

Besides, when you're at home you can always hook them up to a larger (17"-plus) monitor of your choice, as well as speakers, printers, scanners, etc.

You're not really losing anything, IMO. But you're gaining a hell of a lot: freedom and flexibility...and knowing that everything you have that's important and dear to you is right there, under your arm.

matsu · January 10, 2003 6:48PM

[quote]Originally posted by pscates:

and knowing that everything you have that's important and dear to you is right there, under your arm.<hr></blockquote>

And a whole lot of paranoia to boot.

But yes, laptops are the future of the AIO. However, boxes (perhaps not desktops per se) might be the future of the home system.

I'd love to have an expandable/modular box that let me plug in a couple of extra internal HDD's and swap video/audio boards as neccessary to do a Home Theatre, A/V server/PVR/DVD player/burner. Outputs to my choice of displays or TV, and when we get true HDTV sets, they will make legit monitors for couch surfing, gaming, even some collaborative work between you and a half dozen of you colleagues.

There will always be a market for EXPANDABLE AND UPGRADEABLE, and AFFORDABLE, boxes to use either as home servers or workstations.

fuzz_ball · January 10, 2003 7:37PM

It may be a legitimate strategy. After all, computer sales in general have been lagging going on almost 2 years now. Obviously consumers aren't overly "wowed" on either side of the fence in terms of constant upgrading. So maybe Apple's tactic is to find something to get consumers excited: digital devices (iPod), ultra-portables (12" PB), and portable desktops (lapzilla). I think it may have to potential to grab some people that weren't planning on upgrading, like me (I lust for lapzilla!)

2003: year of the portables

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