Aarrgh!! I got in at 77ish - on margin. Wish I'd waited a week.
I love the reasoning in the article pointed to: Apple's made a lot of money in the past. They can't possibly maintain that growth; they must be done. Time to sell.
What?! I think I need to close my eyes and not open them till the WWDC or Apple Expo Paris.
The lowest the stock will/can go is about $53.30 which is what the company is valued based upon assets.
I don't know where you got that number, but it doesn't match what apple puts out in their reports.
Book value is $8.94 per share, and net assets (assets minus debts) are $6.8 billion, and with 842,767,948 shares it works out to $8.08 in net assets per share.
Also, plenty of companies trade for less than book value - if things go really wrong for apple (not that I think it will, mind you) then it can and will go to 0.
Said it before and I will say it again, Apple is in hover mode now, they were under valued for years at ~$4-7, now they are maturing, the ipod market is getting saturated(growth will continue, but at a much slower rate, he days of 300% year over year shipping units are likely gone), so a little bit of correction is a natural phenominon.
I am not an expert but here is what I would do if I were invested in Apple:
!: any shares bought at $30 or less would be sold if the stock hit $50 (on the way down)...take your paper loss before it becomes a real one.
2: anything bought between $30 and 55 I would set a sell signal for at about $60(on the way down), again, take your losses on paper, but gain in real life.
3: the only reason to buy any stock in apple higher than $65 would be to play the hype, buy before an announcement and take your gain after the show, this would have made you a cool 10% in one day at MWSF
4: If it hits $100, sell it all and go buy a new Mac
5: If you invest purley on emotion, you are sure to lose
Said it before and I will say it again, Apple is in hover mode now, they were under valued for years at ~$4-7, now they are maturing, the ipod market is getting saturated(growth will continue, but at a much slower rate, he days of 300% year over year shipping units are likely gone), so a little bit of correction is a natural phenominon.
I am not an expert but here is what I would do if I were invested in Apple:
!: any shares bought at $30 or less would be sold if the stock hit $50 (on the way down)...take your paper loss before it becomes a real one.
2: anything bought between $30 and 55 I would set a sell signal for at about $60(on the way down), again, take your losses on paper, but gain in real life.
3: the only reason to buy any stock in apple higher than $65 would be to play the hype, buy before an announcement and take your gain after the show, this would have made you a cool 10% in one day at MWSF
4: If it hits $100, sell it all and go buy a new Mac
5: If you invest purley on emotion, you are sure to lose
If you look at the charts the stock is in major bear mode. It has broken through support around 72 and 65. I would sell now, no matter what price it was bought at. Next support level is in low 50s.
A price level in which buyers appear. On a chart it is the price level it dropped to and then began to rise again. If you look at a 6 month chart on apple at cnnfn you can pick these points out. I tried to include an image that I made but can't.
Well I'm setting up to invest a bit in AAPL, just some pocket change, because I'm about to graduate and I'm poor, of course. three, small four figure sum. Very modest. I'll invest now, and probably cash out in a year for some quick cash if I need it, or of course if I hit a nice job I'll put even more in.
So, for someone who knows very little, okay nothing, about stock, and just wants to invest now and not meddle with the stock, what does everyone recommend? I've heard ShareBuilder and Scottrade. Which one should I pick? It seems as if neither will charge me for inactivity. As I said I want to buy now, perhaps sell what I buy now in a year, and then after that just put a bit in now and then for mid-term (5 or 10 year or something) investment plan. What does everyone think? Scottrade seems to have a pretty solid reputation, and a branch office right next to where I'm interning this semester in Providence. So it seems like I will go with Scottrade, what'd ya'll think?
It seems, considering all the news of MS delaying Office and Windows, now is a good time to invest. I have to say that's the best Apple news I've heard for a while, that both Vista AND Office have been pushed back until next year.
If you look at the charts the stock is in major bear mode. It has broken through support around 72 and 65. I would sell now, no matter what price it was bought at. Next support level is in low 50s.
I agree. I got out at around $65.
Apple will find a support level and some good news/quarterly results that will generate stock price growth. However even then it will be a hard ride back up because there are plenty of people who bought higher and now want to get out. That creates plenty of seller supply which holds the price down a bit.
I'd look for other opportunities of growth unless you plan on holding Apple really long.
Apple will find a support level and some good news/quarterly results that will generate stock price growth. However even then it will be a hard ride back up because there are plenty of people who bought higher and now want to get out. That creates plenty of seller supply which holds the price down a bit.
I'd look for other opportunities of growth unless you plan on holding Apple really long.
Well I'm setting up to invest a bit in AAPL, just some pocket change, because I'm about to graduate and I'm poor, of course. three, small four figure sum. Very modest. I'll invest now, and probably cash out in a year for some quick cash if I need it, or of course if I hit a nice job I'll put even more in.
So, for someone who knows very little, okay nothing, about stock, and just wants to invest now and not meddle with the stock, what does everyone recommend? I've heard ShareBuilder and Scottrade. Which one should I pick? It seems as if neither will charge me for inactivity. As I said I want to buy now, perhaps sell what I buy now in a year, and then after that just put a bit in now and then for mid-term (5 or 10 year or something) investment plan. What does everyone think? Scottrade seems to have a pretty solid reputation, and a branch office right next to where I'm interning this semester in Providence. So it seems like I will go with Scottrade, what'd ya'll think?
It seems, considering all the news of MS delaying Office and Windows, now is a good time to invest. I have to say that's the best Apple news I've heard for a while, that both Vista AND Office have been pushed back until next year.
Buy now, sell in a few years!
All the young teens coming up are getting the apple bug, why?
Because they have little expirence with Windows, and can tell right away that apple's OS and computers, not only look better but are better under the hood too! There is a definite iPod halo effect going on, despite some people saying it's not happening, it is and it gaining ground! Since I switched about a year ago, I know about 15 people who have since switched too! Because they have used my computer, and seen it in action!
So at the risk of repeating myself: Buy now, sell in a few years!
With regards to defining support, take a look at a multi-year chart for INTC, I believe the chart pattern right now is showing support at around $19.50 or so.
Regarding AAPL, I would probably suggest holding off until May/June or so before considering opening a long position. Why? Seasonality. At the very least you want to see the stock level out and begin to rise before you open a long position. You might miss out on some of the upside, but it's better than attempting to pick bottoms (which is arguably what I have done with INTC, but that's another matter hehe...).
I think that all this talk about "support levels" and other technical analysis is a crock. Read "A random walk down wall st" - stock movement is random in the short and medium term, and in the long term value analysis can tell you what a stock will do.
With regards to defining support, take a look at a multi-year chart for INTC, I believe the chart pattern right now is showing support at around $19.50 or so.
Regarding AAPL, I would probably suggest holding off until May/June or so before considering opening a long position. Why? Seasonality. At the very least you want to see the stock level out and begin to rise before you open a long position. You might miss out on some of the upside, but it's better than attempting to pick bottoms (which is arguably what I have done with INTC, but that's another matter hehe...).
I'm with you here. With new products they have coming out, I like intel here. Hope support holds at 19.50.
I think that all this talk about "support levels" and other technical analysis is a crock. Read "A random walk down wall st" - stock movement is random in the short and medium term, and in the long term value analysis can tell you what a stock will do.
Agreed. Look at the explanation of a support level. "Go back and look at what it held at..." So everyone goes back and says "Ah, it'll hold at 55-58. It's at 59. Eh, I'll hold on to it." And what happens? It stays up there *because everyone held onto it*.
It the 'support level' had been say 40, then a bunch of people would bailed, and guess what - the selloff would drive it down.
Using the support level to justify a buy/sell which affects the support level is called circular logic. ie, no logic.
It's not math, it's not business analysis, it's mob mentality is all.
I think that all this talk about "support levels" and other technical analysis is a crock. Read "A random walk down wall st" - stock movement is random in the short and medium term, and in the long term value analysis can tell you what a stock will do.
Interesting that you should mention that. I'm a business undergrade student, finance major, and I've covered a fair bit of academic theory on the topic of financial markets. Unfortunately most of it is complete BS.
For example, the strong version of efficient market hypothesis basically states that all information about a stock is already fully priced into the value of the stock, so future movements are completely random. This in turn means that you shouldn't bother buying a stock because you have zero clue as to whether or not it will go up the next day. Unfortunately this is an extremely unrealistic assertion, because market participants do not all have equal access to information (even though they arguably should). Inefficiencies in the market exist on a constant basis, a stock trader exploits these inefficiencies.
If you want to read something more useful, I would suggest starting with Shiller's "Irrational Exuberance" - behavioral finance is much more interesting/relevant.
Agreed. Look at the explanation of a support level. "Go back and look at what it held at..." So everyone goes back and says "Ah, it'll hold at 55-58. It's at 59. Eh, I'll hold on to it." And what happens? It stays up there *because everyone held onto it*.
It the 'support level' had been say 40, then a bunch of people would bailed, and guess what - the selloff would drive it down.
Using the support level to justify a buy/sell which affects the support level is called circular logic. ie, no logic.
It's not math, it's not business analysis, it's mob mentality is all.
I wouldn't discount mob mentality as being an important component of our financial markets. The thing you need to remember is that market participants are not all cold, rational machines. Lots of retail traders out there, not to mention all of the human managers running mutual funds. Just look at the stock market bubble of the late 1990s.
Regarding your comments on chart techniques, you need to keep in mind that charts are just a tool. If you gave me a number of companies to look at, I could provide you with buy, short sell or "don't touch right now" recommendations after just a few seconds of looking at a chart, without even looking at the fundamentals of the respective companies (and I always look at fundamentals before taking multi-day positions in a company).
Levels of support and resistance are best viewed as points of market psychology. There will always be levels where buyers show up, and levels where sellers arrive. Part of this is based on fundamentals, and part of it is based purely on market psychology (fear and greed).
In the case of Intel, $19.50 or so is not a potential point of support because people fancy the number, it is a point of support because of the fundamentals of the company. INTC is trading right now at trailing P/E of about 14 right now. One could say that $19.50 is a price at which the P/E has compressed to the point where investing in INTC becomes somewhat of a value play. Stock also pays you a 2% dividend yield while you are waiting for capital appreciation.
I've had an interest in stock trading for several decades, and in the 80's even wrote some software to 'chart' stock prices (for Apple and DOS machines). I would suggest that you do a LOT OF DUE DILIGENCE before investing. Learn the difference between chart analysis and fundamental analysis.
I'm now retired and actively trading. I went with Scottrade, been with them for several months. I am happy. Their software works, trades are exectuted instantly and it has decent charting and fundamental analysis tools. Good enough for dummies like you and me.
The really cool thing about Scottrade is that I do NOT have to be on my Mac in order to trade. The software runs as a web application so I can log in from any machine that is connected to the internet.
There is a big difference between 'trading' stocks and 'long term investing'. Make sure you know the difference. Luckily I have been investing the last 20 years, so I have no serious financial worries.
Also, keep in mind that all stocks do NOT pay dividends. (AAPL does not) so your only gain is in the stock price. A 1 1/2 to 3% gain due only to dividends does not sound like much money, but dividends re-invested back into the same stock such as GE and used to be GM compounds fiercely after 10 or 20 years.
Regardless, I would not hesitate to own AAPL for long term investing. There is no guarantee of future performance, but they are still in biz 20+ yrs. later, and they make really COOL STUFF!
I wouldn't discount mob mentality as being an important component of our financial markets. The thing you need to remember is that market participants are not all cold, rational machines. Lots of retail traders out there, not to mention all of the human managers running mutual funds. Just look at the stock market bubble of the late 1990s.
Regarding your comments on chart techniques, you need to keep in mind that charts are just a tool. If you gave me a number of companies to look at, I could provide you with buy, short sell or "don't touch right now" recommendations after just a few seconds of looking at a chart, without even looking at the fundamentals of the respective companies (and I always look at fundamentals before taking multi-day positions in a company).
Levels of support and resistance are best viewed as points of market psychology. There will always be levels where buyers show up, and levels where sellers arrive. Part of this is based on fundamentals, and part of it is based purely on market psychology (fear and greed).
In the case of Intel, $19.50 or so is not a potential point of support because people fancy the number, it is a point of support because of the fundamentals of the company. INTC is trading right now at trailing P/E of about 14 right now. One could say that $19.50 is a price at which the P/E has compressed to the point where investing in INTC becomes somewhat of a value play. Stock also pays you a 2% dividend yield while you are waiting for capital appreciation.
Fundamental analysis is the why, technical analysis is the when.
Comments
I bought a more apple shares today, i'm stocking up like a squirrel!
Originally posted by jasenj1
Aarrgh!! I got in at 77ish - on margin. Wish I'd waited a week.
I love the reasoning in the article pointed to: Apple's made a lot of money in the past. They can't possibly maintain that growth; they must be done. Time to sell.
What?! I think I need to close my eyes and not open them till the WWDC or Apple Expo Paris.
- Jasen.
When is the Paris EXPO!
Originally posted by ngmapple
The lowest the stock will/can go is about $53.30 which is what the company is valued based upon assets.
I don't know where you got that number, but it doesn't match what apple puts out in their reports.
Book value is $8.94 per share, and net assets (assets minus debts) are $6.8 billion, and with 842,767,948 shares it works out to $8.08 in net assets per share.
Also, plenty of companies trade for less than book value - if things go really wrong for apple (not that I think it will, mind you) then it can and will go to 0.
I am not an expert but here is what I would do if I were invested in Apple:
!: any shares bought at $30 or less would be sold if the stock hit $50 (on the way down)...take your paper loss before it becomes a real one.
2: anything bought between $30 and 55 I would set a sell signal for at about $60(on the way down), again, take your losses on paper, but gain in real life.
3: the only reason to buy any stock in apple higher than $65 would be to play the hype, buy before an announcement and take your gain after the show, this would have made you a cool 10% in one day at MWSF
4: If it hits $100, sell it all and go buy a new Mac
5: If you invest purley on emotion, you are sure to lose
Originally posted by a_greer
Said it before and I will say it again, Apple is in hover mode now, they were under valued for years at ~$4-7, now they are maturing, the ipod market is getting saturated(growth will continue, but at a much slower rate, he days of 300% year over year shipping units are likely gone), so a little bit of correction is a natural phenominon.
I am not an expert but here is what I would do if I were invested in Apple:
!: any shares bought at $30 or less would be sold if the stock hit $50 (on the way down)...take your paper loss before it becomes a real one.
2: anything bought between $30 and 55 I would set a sell signal for at about $60(on the way down), again, take your losses on paper, but gain in real life.
3: the only reason to buy any stock in apple higher than $65 would be to play the hype, buy before an announcement and take your gain after the show, this would have made you a cool 10% in one day at MWSF
4: If it hits $100, sell it all and go buy a new Mac
5: If you invest purley on emotion, you are sure to lose
If you look at the charts the stock is in major bear mode. It has broken through support around 72 and 65. I would sell now, no matter what price it was bought at. Next support level is in low 50s.
Double post,edit.
Originally posted by Aquatic
What's a support level?
A price level in which buyers appear. On a chart it is the price level it dropped to and then began to rise again. If you look at a 6 month chart on apple at cnnfn you can pick these points out. I tried to include an image that I made but can't.
Well I'm setting up to invest a bit in AAPL, just some pocket change, because I'm about to graduate and I'm poor, of course. three, small four figure sum. Very modest. I'll invest now, and probably cash out in a year for some quick cash if I need it, or of course if I hit a nice job I'll put even more in.
So, for someone who knows very little, okay nothing, about stock, and just wants to invest now and not meddle with the stock, what does everyone recommend? I've heard ShareBuilder and Scottrade. Which one should I pick? It seems as if neither will charge me for inactivity. As I said I want to buy now, perhaps sell what I buy now in a year, and then after that just put a bit in now and then for mid-term (5 or 10 year or something) investment plan. What does everyone think? Scottrade seems to have a pretty solid reputation, and a branch office right next to where I'm interning this semester in Providence. So it seems like I will go with Scottrade, what'd ya'll think?
It seems, considering all the news of MS delaying Office and Windows, now is a good time to invest. I have to say that's the best Apple news I've heard for a while, that both Vista AND Office have been pushed back until next year.
Originally posted by backtomac
If you look at the charts the stock is in major bear mode. It has broken through support around 72 and 65. I would sell now, no matter what price it was bought at. Next support level is in low 50s.
I agree. I got out at around $65.
Apple will find a support level and some good news/quarterly results that will generate stock price growth. However even then it will be a hard ride back up because there are plenty of people who bought higher and now want to get out. That creates plenty of seller supply which holds the price down a bit.
I'd look for other opportunities of growth unless you plan on holding Apple really long.
Nick
Originally posted by trumptman
I agree. I got out at around $65.
Apple will find a support level and some good news/quarterly results that will generate stock price growth. However even then it will be a hard ride back up because there are plenty of people who bought higher and now want to get out. That creates plenty of seller supply which holds the price down a bit.
I'd look for other opportunities of growth unless you plan on holding Apple really long.
Nick
Ditto. Love the company, stock...no.
Originally posted by Aquatic
Thanks.
Well I'm setting up to invest a bit in AAPL, just some pocket change, because I'm about to graduate and I'm poor, of course. three, small four figure sum. Very modest. I'll invest now, and probably cash out in a year for some quick cash if I need it, or of course if I hit a nice job I'll put even more in.
So, for someone who knows very little, okay nothing, about stock, and just wants to invest now and not meddle with the stock, what does everyone recommend? I've heard ShareBuilder and Scottrade. Which one should I pick? It seems as if neither will charge me for inactivity. As I said I want to buy now, perhaps sell what I buy now in a year, and then after that just put a bit in now and then for mid-term (5 or 10 year or something) investment plan. What does everyone think? Scottrade seems to have a pretty solid reputation, and a branch office right next to where I'm interning this semester in Providence. So it seems like I will go with Scottrade, what'd ya'll think?
It seems, considering all the news of MS delaying Office and Windows, now is a good time to invest. I have to say that's the best Apple news I've heard for a while, that both Vista AND Office have been pushed back until next year.
Buy now, sell in a few years!
All the young teens coming up are getting the apple bug, why?
Because they have little expirence with Windows, and can tell right away that apple's OS and computers, not only look better but are better under the hood too! There is a definite iPod halo effect going on, despite some people saying it's not happening, it is and it gaining ground! Since I switched about a year ago, I know about 15 people who have since switched too! Because they have used my computer, and seen it in action!
So at the risk of repeating myself: Buy now, sell in a few years!
Regarding AAPL, I would probably suggest holding off until May/June or so before considering opening a long position. Why? Seasonality. At the very least you want to see the stock level out and begin to rise before you open a long position. You might miss out on some of the upside, but it's better than attempting to pick bottoms (which is arguably what I have done with INTC, but that's another matter hehe...).
Originally posted by Chagi
With regards to defining support, take a look at a multi-year chart for INTC, I believe the chart pattern right now is showing support at around $19.50 or so.
Regarding AAPL, I would probably suggest holding off until May/June or so before considering opening a long position. Why? Seasonality. At the very least you want to see the stock level out and begin to rise before you open a long position. You might miss out on some of the upside, but it's better than attempting to pick bottoms (which is arguably what I have done with INTC, but that's another matter hehe...).
I'm with you here. With new products they have coming out, I like intel here. Hope support holds at 19.50.
Originally posted by e1618978
I think that all this talk about "support levels" and other technical analysis is a crock. Read "A random walk down wall st" - stock movement is random in the short and medium term, and in the long term value analysis can tell you what a stock will do.
Agreed. Look at the explanation of a support level. "Go back and look at what it held at..." So everyone goes back and says "Ah, it'll hold at 55-58. It's at 59. Eh, I'll hold on to it." And what happens? It stays up there *because everyone held onto it*.
It the 'support level' had been say 40, then a bunch of people would bailed, and guess what - the selloff would drive it down.
Using the support level to justify a buy/sell which affects the support level is called circular logic. ie, no logic.
It's not math, it's not business analysis, it's mob mentality is all.
Originally posted by e1618978
I think that all this talk about "support levels" and other technical analysis is a crock. Read "A random walk down wall st" - stock movement is random in the short and medium term, and in the long term value analysis can tell you what a stock will do.
Interesting that you should mention that. I'm a business undergrade student, finance major, and I've covered a fair bit of academic theory on the topic of financial markets. Unfortunately most of it is complete BS.
For example, the strong version of efficient market hypothesis basically states that all information about a stock is already fully priced into the value of the stock, so future movements are completely random. This in turn means that you shouldn't bother buying a stock because you have zero clue as to whether or not it will go up the next day. Unfortunately this is an extremely unrealistic assertion, because market participants do not all have equal access to information (even though they arguably should). Inefficiencies in the market exist on a constant basis, a stock trader exploits these inefficiencies.
If you want to read something more useful, I would suggest starting with Shiller's "Irrational Exuberance" - behavioral finance is much more interesting/relevant.
Originally posted by Kickaha
Agreed. Look at the explanation of a support level. "Go back and look at what it held at..." So everyone goes back and says "Ah, it'll hold at 55-58. It's at 59. Eh, I'll hold on to it." And what happens? It stays up there *because everyone held onto it*.
It the 'support level' had been say 40, then a bunch of people would bailed, and guess what - the selloff would drive it down.
Using the support level to justify a buy/sell which affects the support level is called circular logic. ie, no logic.
It's not math, it's not business analysis, it's mob mentality is all.
I wouldn't discount mob mentality as being an important component of our financial markets. The thing you need to remember is that market participants are not all cold, rational machines. Lots of retail traders out there, not to mention all of the human managers running mutual funds. Just look at the stock market bubble of the late 1990s.
Regarding your comments on chart techniques, you need to keep in mind that charts are just a tool. If you gave me a number of companies to look at, I could provide you with buy, short sell or "don't touch right now" recommendations after just a few seconds of looking at a chart, without even looking at the fundamentals of the respective companies (and I always look at fundamentals before taking multi-day positions in a company).
Levels of support and resistance are best viewed as points of market psychology. There will always be levels where buyers show up, and levels where sellers arrive. Part of this is based on fundamentals, and part of it is based purely on market psychology (fear and greed).
In the case of Intel, $19.50 or so is not a potential point of support because people fancy the number, it is a point of support because of the fundamentals of the company. INTC is trading right now at trailing P/E of about 14 right now. One could say that $19.50 is a price at which the P/E has compressed to the point where investing in INTC becomes somewhat of a value play. Stock also pays you a 2% dividend yield while you are waiting for capital appreciation.
I've had an interest in stock trading for several decades, and in the 80's even wrote some software to 'chart' stock prices (for Apple and DOS machines). I would suggest that you do a LOT OF DUE DILIGENCE before investing. Learn the difference between chart analysis and fundamental analysis.
I'm now retired and actively trading. I went with Scottrade, been with them for several months. I am happy. Their software works, trades are exectuted instantly and it has decent charting and fundamental analysis tools. Good enough for dummies like you and me.
The really cool thing about Scottrade is that I do NOT have to be on my Mac in order to trade. The software runs as a web application so I can log in from any machine that is connected to the internet.
There is a big difference between 'trading' stocks and 'long term investing'. Make sure you know the difference. Luckily I have been investing the last 20 years, so I have no serious financial worries.
Also, keep in mind that all stocks do NOT pay dividends. (AAPL does not) so your only gain is in the stock price. A 1 1/2 to 3% gain due only to dividends does not sound like much money, but dividends re-invested back into the same stock such as GE and used to be GM compounds fiercely after 10 or 20 years.
Regardless, I would not hesitate to own AAPL for long term investing. There is no guarantee of future performance, but they are still in biz 20+ yrs. later, and they make really COOL STUFF!
Paz
Originally posted by Chagi
I wouldn't discount mob mentality as being an important component of our financial markets. The thing you need to remember is that market participants are not all cold, rational machines. Lots of retail traders out there, not to mention all of the human managers running mutual funds. Just look at the stock market bubble of the late 1990s.
Regarding your comments on chart techniques, you need to keep in mind that charts are just a tool. If you gave me a number of companies to look at, I could provide you with buy, short sell or "don't touch right now" recommendations after just a few seconds of looking at a chart, without even looking at the fundamentals of the respective companies (and I always look at fundamentals before taking multi-day positions in a company).
Levels of support and resistance are best viewed as points of market psychology. There will always be levels where buyers show up, and levels where sellers arrive. Part of this is based on fundamentals, and part of it is based purely on market psychology (fear and greed).
In the case of Intel, $19.50 or so is not a potential point of support because people fancy the number, it is a point of support because of the fundamentals of the company. INTC is trading right now at trailing P/E of about 14 right now. One could say that $19.50 is a price at which the P/E has compressed to the point where investing in INTC becomes somewhat of a value play. Stock also pays you a 2% dividend yield while you are waiting for capital appreciation.
Fundamental analysis is the why, technical analysis is the when.