PiperJaffray updates expectations for future Apple products
Following Apple's earnings announcement on Wednesday, analysts for PiperJaffray weighed in with their predictions what new products may be in the company's pipeline and when they may first appear.
Analyst Gene Munster told clients on Thursday he expects Apple will launch higher capacity iPod nanos and a new video iPod later this year.
"Last night, Portal Player announced that its PP5021 SoC, which will be available in the second half of 2006, has not been selected for use on mid-range and high-range flash-based iPods," the analyst said in a research note. Munster believes the announcement provides some confirmation that Apple will indeed launch higher capacity iPod nanos, such as 8GB and 10GB models, later this year.
"We expect to see a higher capacity iPod nano in the market in late summer or early fall," the analyst wrote. "Releasing new nanos during the back-to-school timeframe would allow Apple to capitalize on this seasonally stronger buying period, but, more importantly, we need to see the products in the market by October-November to take full advantage of holiday buying."
While Munster does expect Apple to launch a large screen video iPod at some point, he said it's difficult to pin-point the timing of such a rollout. "Apple's strategy could be to wait for increased availability of video content on iTunes, such as feature film, which would likely cause the company to hold back on launching in 2006," he said.
Meanwhile, Munster predicts Apple will not announce an Intel iBook (MacBook) until July, seeing as Apple said its strong educational buying months fall between July and September. "Also," the analyst said, "Apple's guidance for the June quarter does not appear to factor in an uptick in iBook, adding to our confidence that the new iBook won't ship until July."
Due to the fact that many professionals are awaiting on Intel-native Adobe software before upgrading to Apple's new Intel Macs, Munster does not expect a new PowerMac until the fall months of Sept. through Nov.
The analyst also predicts Apple will ship Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard at Macworld in January 2007 and says Boot Camp will be "the most significant new feature" in the operating system update.
PiperJaffray maintains an Outperform rating on Apple shares with a price target of $99.
Analyst Gene Munster told clients on Thursday he expects Apple will launch higher capacity iPod nanos and a new video iPod later this year.
"Last night, Portal Player announced that its PP5021 SoC, which will be available in the second half of 2006, has not been selected for use on mid-range and high-range flash-based iPods," the analyst said in a research note. Munster believes the announcement provides some confirmation that Apple will indeed launch higher capacity iPod nanos, such as 8GB and 10GB models, later this year.
"We expect to see a higher capacity iPod nano in the market in late summer or early fall," the analyst wrote. "Releasing new nanos during the back-to-school timeframe would allow Apple to capitalize on this seasonally stronger buying period, but, more importantly, we need to see the products in the market by October-November to take full advantage of holiday buying."
While Munster does expect Apple to launch a large screen video iPod at some point, he said it's difficult to pin-point the timing of such a rollout. "Apple's strategy could be to wait for increased availability of video content on iTunes, such as feature film, which would likely cause the company to hold back on launching in 2006," he said.
Meanwhile, Munster predicts Apple will not announce an Intel iBook (MacBook) until July, seeing as Apple said its strong educational buying months fall between July and September. "Also," the analyst said, "Apple's guidance for the June quarter does not appear to factor in an uptick in iBook, adding to our confidence that the new iBook won't ship until July."
Due to the fact that many professionals are awaiting on Intel-native Adobe software before upgrading to Apple's new Intel Macs, Munster does not expect a new PowerMac until the fall months of Sept. through Nov.
The analyst also predicts Apple will ship Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard at Macworld in January 2007 and says Boot Camp will be "the most significant new feature" in the operating system update.
PiperJaffray maintains an Outperform rating on Apple shares with a price target of $99.
Comments
It seems to me the huge market for video is in the home. Hooked up to my TV.
Will Apple go this route?
I have long suspected that they will (Mac mini + Front Row as the basic platform). But all I hear about is video iPod. Unless there is something else to this thing than we already expect (doubtful)...it seems like a potentially disappointing product.
I see two new directions Apple can go from where they are now:
iPhone: really slick mobile phone, service, etc. probably with iPod music capabilities too.
iTV (whatever the heck you want to call it): (cheaper) Mac mini + Front Row + iTunes video store hooked to the TV set at home.
Two areas with strong potential for growth.
Originally posted by Chris Cuilla
I don't get the video iPod. Sorry folks. I'm sure Apple is planning it. But I just don't get it. I just don't see a huge market (like iPod) for people that want/need to watch video on the go. NOTE: I'm saying not HUGE...I'm not saying NO market.
It seems to me the huge market for video is in the home. Hooked up to my TV.
Will Apple go this route?
I have long suspected that they will (Mac mini + Front Row as the basic platform). But all I hear about is video iPod. Unless there is something else to this thing than we already expect (doubtful)...it seems like a potentially disappointing product.
I see two new directions Apple can go from where they are now:
iPhone: really slick mobile phone, service, etc. probably with iPod music capabilities too.
iTV (whatever the heck you want to call it): (cheaper) Mac mini + Front Row + iTunes video store hooked to the TV set at home.
Two areas with strong potential for growth.
The iPod video has been for sale for a while, and it sells pretty well. It's just a higher capacity iPod that plays video. My next iPod is going to be one. I have a few video pod-casts that I subscribe to that I watch on my computer now, but I would prefer to be able to watch them daily at work on my lunch break. There are a few people at my work that have them, and everybody wants one. More so than the guy that has the PSP which I thought was interesting.
Even thought an Ipod with larger screen will be welcome. I have never understood the excitement of watching video on a tiny screen. It's fun but I rather watch video on a larger screen.
I rather have a DVR solution that can integrate my songs, photos and videos with my entertainment system. That will be a killer market for Apple.
The Iphone too could be a great market too.
The video ipod is nice, but the ipod still for me as mainly a music device. I would like Apple to figure out a way to input data while on the road. Sort like a PDA. It would useful specially for calendars, contact, etc.
Cheers
Yes I think it's cool as sh*t too. Just make it a bit bigger, and I'll have my Mac Tablet Pro.
Originally posted by Ireland
So basically he knows as much as the rest of us. And he's wrong about the MacBook's! Pure genius. Oh and forgot to mention, he has no clue what goes on behind the scenes at apple, and likes taking educated guesses. Although that probably wouldn't sound so good to (his) clients.
You know nothing about the MacBooks. Rumors are flying all around. Don't pretend that they are facts.
How do you know that he knows nothing about what goes on at Apple? Do you?
Originally posted by onlooker
Someting like this?
Yes I think it's cool as sh*t too. Just make it a bit bigger, and I'll have my Mac Tablet Pro.
That looks a lot like the HTC 6700 Windows phone that I almost bought. Except that the HTC has some controls on the vertical bottom part, like a Palm device.
If Apple had something like this that ran OS X Lite, I would buy it right away.
ITMS
Jackass Season1 $8.99
Jackass Season2 $8.99
Jackass Season3 $9.99
Originally posted by onlooker
As for the video iPod. You have to admit that having season 1 of Jackass for $8.99 in your pocket to laugh at would be gas.
ITMS
Jackass Season1 $8.99
Jackass Season2 $8.99
Jackass Season3 $9.99
Oh lord, I hope you're not one of those who try those stunts.
We believe that Apple has a 'widescreen' iPod in the works and it makes sense. I'm not sure Apple will have an iPod that is one large screen with a touchpad, however, I know I get annoyed when I see fingerprints anywhere on my iPod, never mind the screen.
We know that the current iPod dock can currently be used to show videos on a TV via a standard AV cable. This lets you watch the content that you download on a larger screen.
We also believe that Apple is looking to move into full length movie downloads. It's not that big of a leap from albums or seasons of TV shows to movies.
Putting all of these things together, I believe Apple will release the Widescreen (H.264) iPod and TV/Movie downloads from the iTunes Music Store will be avaiable in High Definition (if available). The iPod dock will be upgraded to allow for either component or HDMI connections. All of a sudden, you have a device that can display television shows in High Definition on your TV via the iPod dock and also have a standard iPod version for on the go.
The major issue here is that these movies will take up huge amounts of storage space, I'm not sure how Apple will deal with this. A hard drive with more than 60 GB of storage space will help, but for something like this to succeed, it might require a Blu-Ray or HD-DVD burner in the Power Macs to help store downloads.
That's what I'm thinking.....
And although, as Chris says, the home is the ideal place for video, it's clear that there is a market for mobile video - cars (back seat), buses, subways, trains, airplanes, waiting on line, etc. Not as big as for music but it's there.
Why is this important for Apple? Because it will differentiate and distinguish it's home solution from everyone else. Apple will not only make it simple to send its H.264 QT-based video around the house, but it will make it simple to download to its iPods.
Originally posted by Fran441
The major issue here is that these movies will take up huge amounts of storage space, I'm not sure how Apple will deal with this. A hard drive with more than 60 GB of storage space will help, but for something like this to succeed, it might require a Blu-Ray or HD-DVD burner in the Power Macs to help store downloads.
That's what I'm thinking.....
Storage is the main reason I don't get Apple's insistance with the movie studios that downloaded movies be owned and not rented. Aside from the fact that people will watch a movie many fewer times than they will listen to a song, there's not enough room on the hard drive to keep very many HD titles.
I'm all for the Netflix plan: All you can eat for $20 a month but no more than three at a time.
Originally posted by mark2005
My Sony camcorder has a touchscreen for the LCD viewer, I've touched it for playback/menu many times possibly with greasy fingers, and I can't ever see my fingerprints on it. So I'm not convinced that a touchscreen has to reveal fingerprints, at least across the general viewing angle.
That's true to a point, but when your finished touching you can close the door with the screen. Thus it doesn't need to be as durable as the iPods screen. More duable, more easy to see fingerprints, than I softer type surface.
Originally posted by Porchland
Storage is the main reason I don't get Apple's insistance with the movie studios that downloaded movies be owned and not rented. Aside from the fact that people will watch a movie many fewer times than they will listen to a song, there's not enough room on the hard drive to keep very many HD titles.
I'm all for the Netflix plan: All you can eat for $20 a month but no more than three at a time.
They might have that option, but the majority prefer one off payments.
Originally posted by Chris Cuilla
I don't get the video iPod. Sorry folks. I'm sure Apple is planning it. But I just don't get it. I just don't see a huge market (like iPod) for people that want/need to watch video on the go. NOTE: I'm saying not HUGE...I'm not saying NO market.
It seems to me the huge market for video is in the home. Hooked up to my TV.
Chris,
I have to agree and disagree with you here.
I used to think that watching video on the ipod was stupid. That was until my wife bought me a new ipod. I loaded 2 seasons of battlestar galactica and was able to watch the vid on a NY to California trip recently. Yes, I think front row will be bigger but, don't discount the moms who need to keep their kids occupied in waiting rooms and travelers like myself. Video will be huge no matter which platform you keep it loaded on.
Originally posted by Porchland
Storage is the main reason I don't get Apple's insistance with the movie studios that downloaded movies be owned and not rented.
I think the issue here is that Apple is trying to accomplish two things at once:
1. Differentiate from Netflix and video stores.
( If they provided DVD-quality, they are differentiating from a purchase through "convenience" theoretically...though maybe missing out on the special features I suppose. )
2. Lock you into their service/hardware -- "Look, you've bought the videos. You can watch them whever you want! You don't want to jump ship now do you?!?!" -- with a rental model (Netflix, which I use, or video store) there is no lock-in at all. I can change whenever I want. Nothing "lost".
Originally posted by onlooker
Someting like this?
Yes I think it's cool as sh*t too. Just make it a bit bigger, and I'll have my Mac Tablet Pro.
That would be ill but that picture needs a more scaled down OSX
I mean look at the dock! It doesn't need all that stuff! Just iCal, Quicktime, Safari, itunes, some notethingy, mail and maybe 2-3 other apps.
And I think it needs some buttons on the face for when it's closed.
Oh, and I think it should be mbp colour but white is mad nice too.
But damn if it was like that I could see people all ove this.
That's what i want, one device for everything.
Tommyt