radarthekat

dkhaley said:

What makes your journalistic credentials better than Ms. Kubota's? You also criticize Joanna Stern, who is a seasoned reporter. I would caution anyone against blindly dismissing their reporting.

This was not mentioned anywhere other than by DED here on AI.  This is analysis, as is the rest of this piece:

”Apple's September quarter posted revenues of $62.9 billion, up 19.6 percent YoY. If you combine this with Apple's revised guidance for the December quarter, Apple's second half of calendar year 2018 will have generated a total of $146.9 billion, compared to $140.9 billion last year, an overall increase of 4.25 percent. ”

And if you read the article you’ll see why this is significant.  Why is it that this straight-forward analysis was not presented by anyone else?  It cuts right to the heart of the matter and is not mere opinion.  It’s simple math that provides true insight.  

jdgaz said:

The smartphone business used to be a two year cycle as people chased longer battery life and 2G-3G-4G revision. Now with all the added features, decent speed, and decent battery life (near or beyond full day for most) phone life is probably leaning more towards a four year replacement cycle.

Which is not so terrible for Apple as it would be for Android.  Apple has now grown their installed base so large that if ‘only’ 1/4th upgrade each year that would still be a huge number of iPhone sales.  Even accounting for folks switching away from iPhone to Android it would still be 150-200 million upgraders.  Add in switchers to iPhone and new-to-smartphone users, which you automatically get as a new crop of children grow into the age where they get their first smartphone (often meaning they get a hand-me-down from a parent who in turn is the one who gets the new iPhone), and you have a very healthy iPhone business each year.  

On the Android side you have a refresh cycle that’s much shorter already, due to Android phones not being updated as easily so get replaced more often.  If consumers begin to demand a longer update cycle, then those cheap Androids that have a realistic lifespan of two years will be replaced with more premium models that promise a longer useable life.  And Android consumers looking at the premium end of the smartphone market are exactly the ones who might decide to switch over to iPhone.  In other words, longer replacement cycles bring Android consumers right to Apple’s doorstep. 

First, the fact they could ‘turn to an iPhone...’ is all
that’s needed to be said.  What was an iPhone doing there?  Obviously, someone on staff prefers it over the brand they are representing in their job.  So that deserves a good laugh at the expense of Huawei.

Beyond that, the company has now admitted it uses VPN software to access Twitter, circumventing the will of the Chinese government.  Wonder if someone at Huawei should perhaps be docked a few months pay for that.  Maybe the CEO.  

I’m still a bit confused how any new iPhones are shipping with iOS 11.  If everything is iOS 12, and iOS 12 doesn’t infringe, what then remains to be banned?  

There’s two ends of a spectrum when it comes to reactions to DED’s articles, and these ends of the spectrum and views generally on Apple’s prospects tend to match up well.  

On one end of the spectrum exist those who look at the immediate timeframe - what’s happening right now - and make an assessment of the company and it’s future based upon what they see.  These folks are highly reactive, swayed by emotion perhaps.  Armchair quarterbacks tossing out desperation plays in the first quarter because the Patriots are down by 17.  We know how that has often turned out; how many Super Bowl rings do Brady and Belichick share?

At the other end of the spectrum reside those with a longer view.  These are the folks, like some here in this thread, like myself and like Warren Buffett, who never advocated Apple purchase Netflix or Tesla (history will show whether we were correct or foolish, but that history is not yet written), who understand the rationale behind share repurchases and that it’s a very long game strategy, who see innovation where others seemingly cannot (to what must these folks attribute the incredible success of the iPhone over ten years if it doesn’t actually stand above the copycats?), and who can project forward to see the potential that exists for Apple in enormous markets, like health and transportation.  And we also understand, regarding disruptions like 2008 and today’s trade war, that ‘this too shall pass.’  

Sadly, like religious or political extremes, there is scant bridge connecting the two ends of this spectrum of views.  But history favors the long view.