carnegie

AppleInsider said:

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What happens next

If Apple wins, it does so by convincing the court that it can't be the subject of this particular type of damages, only the app developers can. In theory, then, the app developers could be open to being sued. In practice, it's unlikely that anyone will attempt to sue hundreds or thousands of individual app companies, but those developers could sue Apple if they believe they've been overcharged.

A ruling against Apple will see unspecified damages levied, but more significantly the likelihood of other cases being brought against online and technology companies in similar positions -- and it would change the nature of application distribution should Apple, Google, Facebook, and others decide to not be faced with this kind of liability. This will set off probably a decade or more of suits, counter-suits, and appeals.

Either way, the ruling at some point in 2019 isn't the end of the story.


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To be clear, a ruling against Apple won't necessarily see unspecified damages levied (and it certainly won't see unspecified damages levied by the ruling itself). The Supreme Court is dealing with a threshold issue here, i.e. whether the plaintiffs have (statutory) standing to sue Apple. If the Supreme Court's decision goes against Apple, that will just mean that the plaintiffs can proceed with their antirust suit. They would still need to win that suit and, if they did, the appeals which might follow.

AppleInsider said:

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It was inevitable that the repatriation was going to happen, as it was something that both U.S. presidential candidates promised to do during the 2016 election. As a result, Apple can now use its foreign earnings to invest domestically while paying a reasonable tax rate (it paid $38 billion in repatriation taxes), reducing its cash pile and putting its money to work.

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Just to be clear about this: Apple hasn't paid most of those taxes. It's just estimated what it will end up having to pay in deemed repatriation taxes as a result of the tax law changes that happened in 2017. Most of those taxes won't be paid for several years. Also, it's since reduced its estimate for those taxes to $37.3 billion total.

As of the end of Apple's FY 2018, and since 2012, it had bought back 2.07 billion shares at a total cost of $239 billion for an average cost per share of about $115.

This is more or less what I'd expect in the wake of the European Commission's decision.

Google now needs to monetize the part of its services which device makers really need (i.e. Play Store accessibility) directly by charging for it. On the flip side, it might need to pay device makers to pre-install the parts which device makers may not need as much, but which Google really needs to have on Android phones in order for Android to be a major profit driver for Google (i.e. Google Search and Chrome). The key, when it comes to compliance with the Commission's decision, will be that those things be separate transactions. For instance, device makers will have to be allowed to license the Play Store even if they aren't willing to pre-install Google Search and Chrome.

While this will represent an additional cost for device makers, it will also potentially open up a new (or strengthen an existing) revenue stream for device makers. Search and browser providers can compete for pre-installed status on various devices. Microsoft, e.g., might be willing to pay a substantial amount to effectively be the default search service on some devices. Or Google might have to pay more to retain that status.

joe28753 said:

Q4 results and not Q3? Is Apple’s fiscal calendar not Jan to Dec? 

It’s roughly October through September. The actual dates vary from year to year because Apple’s quarters are 13 weeks rather than 3 months long, with a 14 week long quarter thrown in every now and then.