johnjohnstone

rogifan_old said:

johnjohnstone said:

I don't think so. There is just way too much smoke not to have a fire at this point. The March quarter will show an iPhone unit decline. But I would not panic. This is what I see the next few months: stock could go as low as $80 by Spring because of decline of iPhone units in March. But I see the stock resurging on news of the iPhone7 release and big gains in AppleWatch2 units. I expect to close the year at about $125. 

Its herd mentality. No point in speculating. We'll know when Apple reports in a few weeks. But your comment about iPhone 7 just shows how pathetic this is. We've heard next to nothing about iPhone 7, certainly not anything that would point to it being some major change from the 6. So what exactly would the resurgence in the stock be for? If we're to believe these rumors and Apple is cutting orders for the 6S why should we believe people are going to rush out and buy the 7 or that we won't be talking about the same damn thing a year from now with analysts predicting 7 cuts but telling everyone things will get better with the 8.

Apple always gets a nice bump up when they change the shell of the phone. iPhone4, 5, and 6 all had nice unit growth.  The S-models have been hit and miss. 4s was huge, 5s barely had growth, and the 6s will probably have a slight decline. That means even if only iPhone6 users upgrade to the 7 we will see a YoY unit growth over the 6s. But of course there will be switchers from Android and some 5/4 series holdouts who skipped the 6. So I expect a nice 8-10% unit growth for the iPhone7. That should should help the stock reach about $125. In the 7s shows growth then we see $140 in a couple of years.

With that in mind I'd wait for $80 share price. If taxes isn't a factor I'd even sell shares now at close to $100 and wait for that $80 price in the Spring. Then you can easily get a 50% return by mid 2017.

adrayven said:

SpamSandwich said:

Actually, it's the crashing Chinese stock market (2 times this week so far) that is driving down AAPL now. The rumors about the supply chain noise didn't help earlier.

Exactly! Chinese market is impacting WS badly.. Everything I have has been down every day this week. It's not just APPL. It's obvious Wall Street is very nervous in all sectors right now because of China's multiple market crashes.

Not really. Apple dropped from $134 to $105 prior to this weeks China crash. That's a decline of 22%.
Now look at Facebook, Netflix, Google, and Microsoft before this week. They were all at or near all time highs after posting amazing 2015 returns. Apple stock is just very weak right now. I expect it to go down to $80 in a few months.

5150iii said:

I picked up 50 more shares at the open.

Just make sure you are willing to hold to at least $80. I can see the stock dip to those levels easily in the next few months.

Great news. Hope the China does not totally go into the tank.