jakespeed

“Own inventory” strategy 

anome said:

jungmark said:

Do analysts hate being proven wrong yet?

You make the common mistake in believing that they've been proven wrong. Sure, they didn't get the numbers, or even the direction, of Apple's performance correct, but they know that Apple is on its way to a big fail. Just because it didn't happen this time, just means it's going to be worse when it does happen, sometime in the next 20 years.

Basically, in this kind of punditry, there's wrong, and there's anticipative of future developments.

Apple has sold some 1.4 billion iphones. Apple knows, but I'm guessing, in the next 5 years they sell at least another 1.4 billion iPhones. 20 years, I don't know and I know nobody else does either. But almost no analyst seems to grip the most simple math. For the foreseeable future Apple never doesn't sell 220-250 million iPhones per year. Today's math indicates that is 159.2b in iPhone sales each year for at least the next 5 years. Add subs rev of 50b year and some headphone and mac sales and you get to $300 billion without a new product line each year in the next 5.

Its true, as I can see the data similarly to Apple, that X outsells 8 and 8+, but combined 8 outsells X. It matters a little I guess. The good news is the higher price point 8+ outsells the 8 or the average iPhone sale price would be lower. The other good news is that over 40% of Apple users don't have either and are using 7 or older - which means upgrade cycle coming up of nearly 1/2 the iPhones sold in 2015/16/17 being replaced, plus a few Android devices too.