or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › JP Morgan: Any 'iPhone 6' display shortage would have 'no impact' on sales, device launch
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

JP Morgan: Any 'iPhone 6' display shortage would have 'no impact' on sales, device launch

post #1 of 42
Thread Starter 
Following a spate of rumors that late-term problems with the display on Apple's next-generation iPhone could force the handset's delay or seriously constrain supplies, at least one Wall Street analyst indicated that the issue -- if it even actually exists -- would not materially impact the launch of the so-called "iPhone 6."

Alleged 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch iPhone 6 mockups with iPhone 5s. | Source: TechSmartt via YouTube


"This sounds like a typical late-in-the-game supply chain story that turns out to have no impact on launch dates or devices sales," J.P. Morgan analyst Rod Hall wrote in a Monday morning note to investors which was provided to AppleInsider. "We believe that initial supply could be slowed somewhat if there is any truth to this but we doubt that iPhone unit volumes in the fall are likely to be impacted."

Apple suppliers were "scrambling to get enough screens ready" for the launch, Reuters reported last week. Two issues -- one said to revolve around backlight technology, and another referred to only as involving a "key component" -- were pegged as having a potentially serious impact on Apple's plans.

At the time, it was "unclear" whether the problems could "delay the launch or limited the number of phones initially available to customers," the outlet said.

As for the track record for Reuters, the news publication also claimed last year that Apple's iPad mini with Retina display may not arrive until 2014 due to alleged supply constraints. Of course, that report ended up being erroneous, as the high-resolution iPad mini launched last year without issue.

As has become customary in the lead-up to the release of a new Apple product, the "iPhone 6" has been the subject of numerous delay rumors. Most have revolved around the potential pushback of a 5.5-inch "phablet" variant, which is believed to remain on track but may not make an appearance at the company's rumored Sept. 9 special media event.

Apple is expected to launch its next iPhone in two screen sizes of 4.7 and 5.5 inches. If the company sticks to its usual release pattern, it will launch the "iPhone 6" two Fridays after its unveiling, which this year would fall on Sept. 19.
post #2 of 42

I kind of like the idea of a three-size lineup...

The current form factor will be iPhone6,

then the iPhone 6G for Gigantic,

then the 6WHG for Way Huge Gigantic...

I got this from a fortune cookie, if anyone's curious.

(wanted to be sure the day had its proper rumor ration)

post #3 of 42
Maybe JP Morgan has more brain cells than I give them credit for.

One would think Apple knows how to produce new iPhones after seven years of introducing new models every year.
post #4 of 42
As much as I want a 5.5" iPhone- I think id rather have Sog not be able to post for 60 days- so I'm hoping for 4.7" only now...

2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

Reply

2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

Reply
post #5 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by RegurgitatedCoprolite View Post

Maybe JP Morgan has more brain cells than I give them credit for.

Still, the title read weird: 'shortage' but not an issue. What does shortage mean, then? They'll be producing less then they wanted, but enough to fulfil requests from Apple?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andysol View Post

As much as I want a 5.5" iPhone- I think id rather have Sog not be able to post for 60 days- so I'm hoping for 4.7" only now...

This post will be thumbed-up by every single member here.
How to enter the Apple logo  on iOS:
/Settings/Keyboard/Shortcut and paste in  which you copied from an email draft or a note. Screendump
Reply
How to enter the Apple logo  on iOS:
/Settings/Keyboard/Shortcut and paste in  which you copied from an email draft or a note. Screendump
Reply
post #6 of 42
It's just a ploy to create a sense of urgency and heighten desire - if you develop an environment of short supply, more people want it - it's certainly works with me, I really, really want one !!!!
post #7 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

Still, the title read weird: 'shortage' but not an issue. What does shortage mean, then? They'll be producing less then they wanted, but enough to fulfil requests from Apple?

Concerning the iPhone launch, "shortage" is likely a word used internally at Apple to indicate a production level not sufficient to achieve their internal revenue projections. It is not a word they would use in public.

 

For the media, "shortage" is a bandied-about word used to describe heavy demand and perceived lack of supply to meet that demand. Apple has a method for dealing with this: simply withholding the launch in some markets (particularly smaller international markets) and carriers (particularly smaller US regional and prepaid operators).

post #8 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpantone View Post

^ post

That's a good explanation, tnx.
How to enter the Apple logo  on iOS:
/Settings/Keyboard/Shortcut and paste in  which you copied from an email draft or a note. Screendump
Reply
How to enter the Apple logo  on iOS:
/Settings/Keyboard/Shortcut and paste in  which you copied from an email draft or a note. Screendump
Reply
post #9 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andysol View Post

As much as I want a 5.5" iPhone- I think id rather have Sog not be able to post for 60 days- so I'm hoping for 4.7" only now...

 

its happenning.

 

I dont even want the 5.5 phone but even i can see the obvious.

post #10 of 42
Shortage means that Apple won't have as many phones available at launch as they wanted. JP Morgan says no impact, IMO because people who can't get a new iphone immediately will wait and not switch to a competitor. Apple gets the sale whether it is on launch day or a few weeks later. I think JP Morgan is pretty much correct. They'll lose a few sales to people who don't care much one way or the other. Probably gain some converts due to the additional cachet of a phone that's in high demand.
post #11 of 42
Remember that alleged new product introduction date that hasn't been announced? Yeah, the problem that may not exist probably won't affect it.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #12 of 42

The analysis are playing both ends of the game, no matter what happens they can say they told us so.

post #13 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post
 

The analysis are playing both ends of the game, no matter what happens they can say they told us so.

 

To be fair JPMorgan has been bullish on Apple for a while now

post #14 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

To be fair JPMorgan has been bullish on Apple for a while now

and you do not think the analysis read what each other write, one say up and other says down, it does not matter what they believe it is a game they play together. The only time you will see most analysis in agreement is on the way down, but even then what the lights are about to turn out there is some analysis trying to paint a rosy picture.

post #15 of 42
I hope Apple changes the form factor so the bezel at the top and bottom aren't as big as they currently are. The mock up looks hideous in this article! The bottom will have to be that thick if they don't change the shape and size of the home button, but their's no reason the top can't be redesigned to cut that space way down.
post #16 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

its happenning.

I dont even want the 5.5 phone but even i can see the obvious.

That makes me...sad.
How to enter the Apple logo  on iOS:
/Settings/Keyboard/Shortcut and paste in  which you copied from an email draft or a note. Screendump
Reply
How to enter the Apple logo  on iOS:
/Settings/Keyboard/Shortcut and paste in  which you copied from an email draft or a note. Screendump
Reply
post #17 of 42

What about the people who prefer a 4" iPhone? The only thing that size will be the older model 5S? Somehow that doesn't seem right. IMHO Apple should have 3 sizes, one keeping the 4" screen as an iPhone 6.

post #18 of 42
Originally Posted by Wings View Post
Apple should have 3 sizes, one keeping the 4" screen as an iPhone 6.


They really ought to have just two....

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply
post #19 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpantone View Post

Concerning the iPhone launch, "shortage" is likely a word used internally at Apple to indicate a production level not sufficient to achieve their internal revenue projections. It is not a word they would use in public.

For the media, "shortage" is a bandied-about word used to describe heavy demand and perceived lack of supply to meet that demand. Apple has a method for dealing with this: simply withholding the launch in some markets (particularly smaller international markets) and carriers (particularly smaller US regional and prepaid operators).

Apple won't release the iPhone if there is a shortage. And by that, i mean if The supply levels is less than what Apple predicts, Apple will modify release date.
post #20 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Remember that alleged new product introduction date that hasn't been announced? Yeah, the problem that may not exist probably won't affect it.

Allegedly the sun is supposed to come up tomorrow.
post #21 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


They really ought to have just two....

They really ought to have four...
post #22 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wings View Post
 

What about the people who prefer a 4" iPhone? The only thing that size will be the older model 5S? Somehow that doesn't seem right. IMHO Apple should have 3 sizes, one keeping the 4" screen as an iPhone 6.

 

You do know that more models equals rising costs?

 

The reason Apple had sell iPhone for a 'cheap' price is because the streamlined lineup.  Cheap you say?  Yes.  Look at Samdung.  They make dozens of different phones a year.  That raises their costs.  And that's why Samdung needs to charge the same amount ($650) for their plastic POS Galaxy S5 as an all metal iPhone6.

 

By the way there won't be any 5S.  The 5S will be placed into a plastic shell with a few minor upgrades and be called the iPhone Color.  Its called progress.  Deal with it.  I'm sure there are people who want a 3.5 inch iPhone6 also.

 

iPhone6L - 5.5 screen, faster A8, sapphire

iPhone6 - 4.7 screen

iPhoneColor - iPhone5S in plastic

iPhone5C

 

That's your lineup.

post #23 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post
 

and you do not think the analysis read what each other write, one say up and other says down, it does not matter what they believe it is a game they play together. The only time you will see most analysis in agreement is on the way down, but even then what the lights are about to turn out there is some analysis trying to paint a rosy picture.

 

why would they work together.  They are all trying to win in the same game.

 

I really don't care if an analysis is a Bull or Bear.  I look for thier REASONS for being bullish or bearish.

post #24 of 42
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

By the way there won't be any 5S.  The 5S will be placed into a plastic shell with a few minor upgrades and be called the iPhone Color.  Its called progress.

 

Complete and utter tripe. Stop your nonsense.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply
post #25 of 42
Just like every year there are delay rumors.

Just give me a new 4" phone Apple. That's all I want. And if not the 4.7" should work. And gold, please. Please have enough gold versions.

And leave that 5.5" for other companies.
You can't spell appeal without Apple.
Reply
You can't spell appeal without Apple.
Reply
post #26 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Complete and utter tripe. Stop your nonsense.

 

Do you wanna make a bet?

 

I say 30 days self ban.

 

I'd say by January 2015 Apple won't offer the metal 5S on their website as a new phone (just like they did for the 5 when the 5S came out)

 

If I'm wrong I'll self ban for 30 days.

If they stop selling the 5S in metal as a new phone you sell ban.

 

Or are you just talk?

post #27 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by alcstarheel View Post

Just like every year there are delay rumors.

Just give me a new 4" phone Apple. That's all I want. And if not the 4.7" should work. And gold, please. Please have enough gold versions.

And leave that 5.5" for other companies.

 

Some people wanted the 5 in the 3.5 inch also.

 

its called progress.  Time to move on.  Stop living in the past.

 

Newspapers, CD's, VCR, Blockbuster, ect.  Move on.

post #28 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Complete and utter tripe. Stop your nonsense.

 

There is ZERO reason for Apple to continue to product the 5S in a metal case.

Those are extremely expensive to product for a $100 discount compared to the flagship.

 

This is the year the transition to the plastic case phones will pay off big time.  They can use the same machinery to produce both the iPhone5C and iPhoneColor (5S in plastic).  This will cut down costs big time.  They will no longer need to produce the 4 or the 4S which are also expensive to make.  The lines between top end and mid/low level is clear.

 

Top End - Metal

Mid/Low - Plastic

post #29 of 42
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

I'd say by January 2015 Apple won't offer the metal 5S on their website as a new phone (just like they did for the 5 when the 5S came out)


So where’s the new casing? What’s your justification for them selling the 5S for four months and then dropping it for a “new” phone?

 
If they do sell the 5S’ hardware in any form, Ill self ban for 30 days.

 

I’ll agree to the above sentence. Seems like a lock for me. Note that I’m doing nothing with that quote that a court doesn’t find perfectly fine.

 
Those are extremely expensive to product for a $100 discount compared to the flagship.

 

Yeah, they sure had a problem with it when selling the 4 and 4S, huh¡

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply
post #30 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Apple won't release the iPhone if there is a shortage. And by that, i mean if The supply levels is less than what Apple predicts, Apple will modify release date.

Again, Apple has the ability to delay the launch to various international markets as well as smaller regional carriers. 

 

Apple definitely has a production forecast that covers a range of units. If their manufacturing partners are coming up short, then Apple will reduce the number of launch markets. In the best case scenario, Apple can speed up the worldwide deployment by adding more markets to the various launch dates.

 

Tim Cook is not going to tell Foxconn, Pegatron, etc. "hey just build as many as you can." There are likely service level agreements based on what the contract manufacturer claims they can build. "We guarantee x units in August, y units in September, x units in October, etc.

post #31 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

Some people wanted the 5 in the 3.5 inch also.

its called progress.  Time to move on.  Stop living in the past.

Newspapers, CD's, VCR, Blockbuster, ect.  Move on.
Betamax was progress too¡

Going from the Nokia cell phone to the Razr was progress too¡

We were trending down in size and now we're trending up but there has to be a stoppage point when usability is impaired. There also has to be a stoppage point where profitability is impaired. It's why Apple no longer makes a 17" MacBook. It's why they don't make a 15" MacBook Air.

You throw the word progress around like it's an end-all-be-all. Progress was Touch ID. Progress was the 64-bit A7. Progress is not just the increase of a screen size.
You can't spell appeal without Apple.
Reply
You can't spell appeal without Apple.
Reply
post #32 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 


So where’s the new casing? What’s your justification for them selling the 5S for four months and then dropping it for a “new” phone?

 

 

Ok lets iron out our bet:

 

If Apple stops producing Metal 5S by Oct 15 you will self ban yourself for 30 days

If Apple continues producing Metal 5S after Oct 15 I'll self ban myself for 30 days.

 

Do you agree?

post #33 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

 

Yeah, they sure had a problem with it when selling the 4 and 4S, huh¡

 

Yes they did have problems selling the 4 and 4S as discounting phones.  There margins were getting CRUSHED.

 

When Apple had the lineup of 5/4S/4 they margins were bad.  Too many people were choosing the 4S or 4 because the phones were to simular to the 5.  All metal phones with simuliar design.  Apple wont make the same mistake again.  That is why they introduced the 5C.  And that is why margins are on the rise the last 3 quarters.

 

It wasn't that Apple had a hard time selling the 4S at $550.  The problem was too many people were buying it instead of the flagship and it was too expensive to produce.

 

 

 

 

post #34 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by alcstarheel View Post


Betamax was progress too¡

Going from the Nokia cell phone to the Razr was progress too¡

We were trending down in size and now we're trending up but there has to be a stoppage point when usability is impaired. There also has to be a stoppage point where profitability is impaired. It's why Apple no longer makes a 17" MacBook. It's why they don't make a 15" MacBook Air.

You throw the word progress around like it's an end-all-be-all. Progress was Touch ID. Progress was the 64-bit A7. Progress is not just the increase of a screen size.

 

Phones in the 90's were trending down in size because all we were doing with our phones was phone calls and text messages.  There was no reason for a bigger screen.

 

But today we use our phones for MEDIA consumption:  Movies, YouTube, web, apps, ect.  Of course there is an upper limit for screen size but I can tell you for a fact that limit is not 4.0 inches.  The trend now is go bigger.  There is no reason to be stubborn and fight the trend.

 

If going to 4.7 and 5.5 isn't progress why did we move up from 3.5?

post #35 of 42
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
Ok lets iron out our bet:

 

How about you just answer the questions.

 

Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
Yes they did have problems selling the 4 and 4S as discounting phones.  There margins were getting CRUSHED.


Your evidence of this is what, exactly?

 
When Apple had the lineup of 5/4S/4 they margins were bad.  Too many people were choosing the 4S or 4 because the phones were to simular to the 5.

 

Complete lies. The sales numbers have always been roughly 50% for the new model and 25% split for the older ones.

 
All metal phones with simuliar design. Apple wont make the same mistake again.
 
1. No. 2. What “mistake”?
 
The problem was too many people were buying it instead of the flagship and it was too expensive to produce.

 

Again, complete lies.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply
post #36 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by alcstarheel View Post

You throw the word progress around like it's an end-all-be-all. Progress was Touch ID. Progress was the 64-bit A7. Progress is not just the increase of a screen size.

Indeed. And don't forget the removal of the floppy, ODD, HDD et cetera. They also removed FW from the MBP, which let to an outcry and was resurrected on its successor. Next up USB? Because I don't like the plug; with its sharp rim and only goes in one way. I think all plugs out to be like headphone jacks; they go in any way you like, so you can insert them without looking.
How to enter the Apple logo  on iOS:
/Settings/Keyboard/Shortcut and paste in  which you copied from an email draft or a note. Screendump
Reply
How to enter the Apple logo  on iOS:
/Settings/Keyboard/Shortcut and paste in  which you copied from an email draft or a note. Screendump
Reply
post #37 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

 

 


Your evidence of this is what, exactly?

 

Complete lies. The sales numbers have always been roughly 50% for the new model and 25% split for the older ones.

 
1. No. 2. What “mistake”?

 

Again, complete lies.

 

Look at the gross margins the last 7 quarters you clown.

 

So are you going to take my bet or are you all talk?

Will you be willing to back up your words?

post #38 of 42
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
Look at the gross margins the last 7 quarters you clown.

 

Or, instead, if you make an argument, be prepared to back it up.

 

Show me how the margins changed between the time they were selling all plastic phones, the time they sold all metal phones, and the time they’re selling a mix.

 
Will you be willing to back up your words?

 

Or you could just answer my questions. You’re acting like a complete idiot would act; “betting” people when you have no argument.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply
post #39 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

Phones in the 90's were trending down in size because all we were doing with our phones was phone calls and text messages.  There was no reason for a bigger screen.

But today we use our phones for MEDIA consumption:  Movies, YouTube, web, apps, ect.  Of course there is an upper limit for screen size but I can tell you for a fact that limit is not 4.0 inches.  The trend now is go bigger.  There is no reason to be stubborn and fight the trend.

If going to 4.7 and 5.5 isn't progress why did we move up from 3.5?
I didn't say the limit was 4". I also didn't say there wasn't a progression between the 4S and the 5. I'm saying solely an increase in screen size does not progression make.

Personally, I would say 5" is the limit on a mobile personal device. I don't think spending the money and time is going to bode well. I don't think economies of scale favor a device that size. I'm not being stubborn and fighting a trend. I'm hoping Apple doesn't follow one that just doesn't seem destined to prosper.
You can't spell appeal without Apple.
Reply
You can't spell appeal without Apple.
Reply
post #40 of 42

No matter if Tallest_Skil or sog35 wins their bet.  Everyone else in the forum wins either way!

New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: iPhone
  • JP Morgan: Any 'iPhone 6' display shortage would have 'no impact' on sales, device launch
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › JP Morgan: Any 'iPhone 6' display shortage would have 'no impact' on sales, device launch