Report: DVR could turn Apple TV into multi-billion dollar business - Page 2

I used to think that Mr Wu was OK...as far as analysts go. But this article shows a lot of ignorance.

Competing with cable and satellite TV in the DVR market would be VERY difficult. It's not just that other companies aren't doing it very well...they just aren't doing it. TiVo is arguably the best one out there, but even with their subscription fees they lose money EVERY quarter. They are finally resorting to licensing their software to cable providers. And once that becomes more widespread, it would be even more difficult for Apple to play in that market. Apple could undoubtably do a better job of it. They might even be able to be successful at it; but I don't think they'd be the "billions" of dollars successful as Mr Wu predicts.

The $12-15 dollars of incremental cost to make Apple TV a DVR also show much lack of knowledge. First, you'd need a much bigger hard drive. 160 GB is the minimum for any DVR. The larger Apple TV has that, but then you also need room for syncing your iTunes content. You also need better video circuitry. Currently, while Apple TV can output 1080i, it's actually limited internally to 720p (fixable with a firmware update?). You also need to be able to support the MPEG formats the cable company uses, which Apple TV currently does not support. Next you need to add the hardware for the cable hookup, CableCard slots, and tuners (dual-tuner is a must have). And that's just to meet today's standards. By the end of the year, CableCards will be obsolete technology. How will Apple TV support two-way communication for SDV and OCAP? For that they'll need to add a communiations module. And that's just to get it to work with cable not satellite.

And in response to a few of the other posts...there is nothing the studios can do to prevent Apple from building a DVR. So Apple wouldn't need their "permission" or to obtain "rights" as some have suggested. However, it might upset the studios enough to negatively affect Apple when it comes time to negotiate for iTunes content.

I'm not saying Apple won't do it. But I'm very skeptical that DVR functionality is what will make Apple TV mulit-billion dollar market. Most people will continue to get the DRV service from the cable/satellite provider.

@Tulkas

The iPod has been very open. There have always been abundant legal options for content other than iTunes. The only restriction was the use of DRM other than Fairplay. The list of non-DRM sources of music only grows.

Video on the other hand has always had copy protection. Video will always have DRM. Because of this the only legal option for content on Apple TV is iTunes. There needs to be more options.

@JeffDM

It may be my lack of imagination. But I really don't see what Apple can bring to DVR service that is so much better or a geat deal more covenient than what is already available. That this function will make the ATV a billion dollar device.

The new converter box will only allow us to DVD-R the show I am watching on TV ...unlike I can now. ..I now can watch one show while taping another show...

As much as we would all love to see it happen, I have doubts. Having the ability to record shows I may miss, or movies on HBO would seriously conflict with my desire or need to buy shows through iTunes. That being said, perhaps they see that market not going anywhere and they are planning for a different approach.

No the iPod has not been very open. Unless you only mean that it could play non-DRM'd music. Great. The AppleTV can play non-DRM'd video too, so that make it just as open. Maybe there are not as many non-DRM'd options for video sources, but that does't make it less open. Try buying DRM music from one of the other vendors and playing it on your iPod, without stripping the DRM first.

You say the only restriction on the iPod was the use of DRM other than Fairplay..how is this different for AppleTV? So long as it is a supported video codec, it should play on the AppleTV, just as supported non-DRM's codec make the iPod "open".

The dare is on.

No, "All" did not equal 4. It was the motto of Athos, Porthos, and Aramis inseparable friends (Three Muskateers) who lived by the motto, "One for all, and all for one" Let's see, that means 3.

Now it is the traditional motto of Switzerland, which refers to the entire population.

By the way, it is Mac Pro, MacBook Pro and MacBook. The latter, I doubt, will be awhile coming.

It is great to be surrounded by so many profs.

Identical comments were made on these boards when the iPod first came out. "What can apple bring to MP3 players that isn't already out there"

Maybe it is a matter of what is offered, how it is offered and who is offering it. Sort of Apple's specialty of late.

I think this is a good idea. Consumers love DVR on their tv sets once they get them.

My only concern is that my cable operator has me locked into their DVR service. In order for me to receive HD channels I had to get their HD set top box which has DVR included. Its a Motorola 'box' and its been disappointing to me. The set has had to be replaced once already (within the first 6 months) and it is extremely noisy even when the tv is turned off.

I imagine an ATV would blow my moxie box away. But I'm not sure I'll ever get to find out.

Without getting into "open" vs "standard" vs "common", you could argue that Apple TV is LESS than the iPod in that it supports only a very limited set of video formats compared to the formats that are in common use today. It would be as if the iPod only supported ACC but not MP3, which is a far, far more commonly used format.

So for open (ie, non-DRM) formats, Apple TV is very limited compared to the iPod. Factor in the availability of non-DRM vs DRM content and the ability to play your existing content (CD vs DVD), and you could very easily argue that the Apple TV is less open than the iPod (from a usabilty standpoint if not from the strict sense of "open standards").

Why would Apple put DVR functions in an Apple TV when it wants you to buy the show or rent the movie from iTunes. Apple has the potential to become a 'TV' company using the Internet connection in your home, Apple TV and iTunes. I could agree with the idea of adding an over-the-air tuner and DVR in to capture broadcast TV. It still cannibalizes iTunes sales but adds the ability to replace the cable company in that you have your "cable" channels on iTunes and regular news and sports via antenna. Kind of like what the dish companies have had to do. But having a DVR to supplement cable does not make any sense. Sure they could do it way, way better but that takes them further away from the real prize which is having people cancel their cable subscription all together and just use iTunes, like I do. All I had to do was get an Apple TV, some rabbit ears, anEyeTV for my mac and no more Comcast for me. Oh the joy of never having to see another cable bill.

Who is your cable provider? Unless it's a small mom-and-pop operation, cable providers are required to support a method for use of 3rd party set-top boxes. Currently, that means CableCard support. So they are not allowed to force you to use their set-top box to use their TV service (note, you'll lose VOD and PPV, which currently does require their set-up box). It's true that a TiVo will not work with your HD cable box, but with a TiVo HD, you don't need the HD cable box. It replaces both the DVR and the tuner (cable box). The CableCard is in essence the tuner. You get that from your cable provider and insert it into the slot in the TiVo (or whatever other device you have).

Why would this be an issue?
The two boxes would connect to each other.
Apple isnt making a cable receiver.
You need both.
I think this is possible...

It is a 'mom and pop' operator. Its called new wave communications.

I live in a rural area and we don't get a lot of choice when it comes to technology.

It's scary, but I have to agree with Shaw Wu. As usual, there are plenty of things that Apple COULD do, and more that Apple SHOULD do if it were a normal company run by a normal CEO with a university business degree. Alas, we're stuck with the present CEO, his high school degree and his so-called "vision".

The real question is:

Why didn't Apple include DVR and digital TV tuner capabilities with any of its Apple TV units?

That's odd, I bought a Sony 32" Bravia last October and don't recall new furniture under the requirements on the Apple TV box. So far my old couch works perfectly with it.

Today RIM/Blackberry dominate the smartphone market. At one time somebody dominated the MP3 player market.

Man the ability to season pass the MANY shows we watch, record/organize them for me and to search for new ones makes that fee seem miniscule. If time is money, then the cost is equal to about 15-30 minutes of my time. Not bad.

I would buy one ASAP but only if it does not have monthly fee. As much as I enjoy using TiVo, $12.95/month ($8.31/month if one prepays $299 for 3 years) for what amounts to occasional software update and TV listing is exorbitant for many folks. I suspect monthly subscription is the primary reason for slow user adoption.

If TV Guide, Yahoo!, etc. can provide TV listing for free (with banner advertisements), then Apple, too, can provide DVR with ads (or other clever revenue generator) in lieu of monthly fee. Heck, El Gato provides TV listing without fee of any kind. And I don't see how software features such as season pass warrant recurring fee.

I love my Toshiba 120GB Tivo 2 box. I'm able to use it with my DirectTV account and also decode to my Mac using Tivo DecodeManager. I nearly bought a Tivo 3 box but after reading about the shortcomings I went to eBay and found this slightly used Tivo 2. The only thing I've had to do was upgrade from the 802.11 "b" USB transmitter to the "g" version when I upgraded to the Airport Extreme "n". I just couldn't get my new "n" network to reconize the WEP password of the old one.

ouragan, your post MUST be sarcasm. I mean, it IS sarcasm right? How can anyone be so collossally ignorant of how brilliant Steve Jobs has been in running Apple? Hundreds of thousands of people have gotten "business degrees" in the last decade or two, how many are running a company with a market cap of over 100 BILLION? I'll answer for you, not very many.

The best part is that you probably HAVE a business degree. So please, amaze us with all your business accomplishments!

My TiVo Series 3 and TiVo HD box have been flawless. I don't experience any bugs in the software, it is not any slower than my old Series 2 box, and the latest software update allows you to transfer recordings between HD boxes and my Mac! It is the ultimate HD device.

It's interesting that they really don't provide any analysis as to why including a DVR would all of a sudden change AppleTV into big business. Frankly, I don't buy it. It's the kind of thing that internet forum boys would like to see, but I don't see how it would fundamentally change the market for the device.

The article claims $12-$15 to add DVR capability? What exactly do they plan on adding for $15, a pair of rabbit ears? You have three forms of content to support: Over the air, Cable, and Satellite. Is the design going to be a stand-alone box to be connected to your existing Satellite or Cable box (similar to the old TiVo Series2)? Would it be able to support dual tuner recording and playback in this configuration? Or are they going to design a box that would support dual CableCard for cable customers and a built-in tuner to support Satellite?

Whatever the confiuration might be, the box will be considerably larger than the existing design, and would require a lot more than a $15 expense to add DVR capability.

I am perfectly happy with my TiVo Series 3 box and TiVo HD box for my HD recordings.

Perhaps a quick review of some of Ouragan's previous postings will change your mind about his education.

Apple is run by a tyrannical, irrational CEO who doesn't have what it takes to study beyond high school.

What else did you expect with overpriced products, outdated parts, a demented obsession for thinness in iMacs, MacBook Airs and iPods, and a looming recession?
____________

Second of all, Steve Jobs is a high school graduate who should never have been allowed to serve as the CEO of an international company listed on the NASDQ stock exchange. Steve Jobs didn't have the brains, mental health and self discipline required to undertake and complete a university degree, a common characteristic of schizophrenia patients with an overblown ego.

The only talent of Steve Jobs lies in marketing. He has the talent and behaviour of a used car salesman. Steve Jobs excels in appropriating the ideas of others, passing off these ideas as his own vision, and selling flawed products like mad.

Apple products are also overpriced, uncompetitive, reflecting only a higher profit margin. And the higher profits were used repeatedly by Steve Jobs to reward himself and obedient, servile, hand picked managers and directors through illegal, fraudulent, criminal stock option gauging.

One could say that Steve Jobs has accomplished everything that he could ever do for Apple. As an orphan born out of wedlock in 1955, a child rejected by his biological mother and a Syrian father, a high school graduate raised in a blue collar family, Steve Jobs has accomplished more than could be expected from him. Staying on will only serve the need of Steve Jobs to control people and the company he created, showing an orphan insecurity, rather than freeing an adult company he should have served for the last 10 and a half years.

________________

Maybe the CEO should get a university education and realize that there are better ways to make money than just raising prices.

And these are just a drop in the bucket of Ouragan's smut.

He can't help it. He's from Quebec. It's genetic.

The analyst said that adding DVR functions to the ATV could result in perhaps BILLIONS of dollars of new revenue.

Exactly HOW?

The sales of the ATV would go up dramatically? A new subscription model? Making the studios pay for the right for ATV users to record their content (yeah, right).

I don't mean to be daft, but please tell me what I'm missing...

I agree with most people that a future high-end ATV should include twin tuners and blu-ray. This would be a really cool "post pc device" that Jobs referred to in the D5 interview with Bill Gates

Like always, what Apple can bring to the table is software/user experience. Tuners just become sources in iTunes and you watch your media on your ipod/iphone/macbook/imac.

I know we can to do this at the moment with elgato etc on the mac side and there have been media centres on the Windows side for years but Apple could do this very elegantly because it develops the hardware, client software, and net services

Keep in mind that Apple makes a LOT more money on hardware than they do on iTunes sales. With all of 3 to 4 billion audio tracks sold, it still only averages out to 20 tracks per iPod as having been bought from iTunes. The sales of movie and video downloads have been extremely slow, iTunes or not. It it turns out that not offering a DVR is the reason that AppleTV isn't being accepted, then it may be that they prudent thing to do would be is to offer it. I don't think EyeTV is necessarily a good substitute, especially as it only encodes after a show is recorded, you can't use AppleTV to watch a show that's in progress, that encoding is slow, and EyeTV hardware isn't that good anyway.

Your choice of content would increase tenfold. You would no longer be held to buy or rent from iTunes but would have complete freedom of recording whatever you choose on the air as many of us now with DVRs have known. However I believe it won't come cheap as there would have to be a monthly or annual subscription charge like a .Mac account, TIVO/cable subscription, etc.
But it would make the ATV much more marketable- don't you think?

A probable big fat lawsuit would certainly be the main reason why Apple has not included it without their permission already. It certainly would not be hard to include in the product as it already is manufactured as it probably be just a software upgrade- unless TIVO and the others have patents on how they record so effortlessly. Whatever the reason , my bet is that the ubiquitous USB port on the back of the ATV is just waiting for the green flag to let it the recording begin.

See the full article at: http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/36359/118/


What most people realize is that Apple could be so much more with another CEO and that the current CEO has accomplished his mandate to develop Mac OS X for Apple and standardize Macs on the Intel platform.

Apple should be much more price and feature competitive with the computers it builds in China. Mac OS X is a great operating system. But why does Apple stagnate at a 2.9% market share in the PC market?

The quick answer is Steve Jobs and his "vision". Microsoft has had problems with Vista. Apple developped a revolutionary interface for its intelligent iPhone. But there are competitors out there and Apple's lead will soon vanish.

And what will Apple have to show for wasting (again!) the opportunity to recover and capture a 25% or 30% market share?

The quick answer is Steve Jobs and his "vision".

I've been around the Mac platform for 20 years and I am about to give up on a company which doesn't get its act together. Apple is a company that has been in recovery for the last 20 years, no less! Success and a vindication of the Mac platform are just around the corner. Such has been Apple's mantra for the last 20 years. And Steve Jobs is really excited by the great products Apple has in the pipeline. Twenty years later, where does Apple stand in the market?

Apple is really great at making excuses, and blaming Microsoft conspiracies, but in the end, must we blame Steve Jobs and his "vision" of a 2.9% market share for Apple's failures and shortcomings?

Keep in mind that Apple was once at 1% when Jobs started. I don't know what's going in in your head, because you simply aren't being rational. A 30-40% year over year growth is NOT stagnation. Apple isn't going to get to 30% of the market overnight, in fact, there's such a thing as growing too quickly. There's not much money scraping the bottom of the market. Sometimes major computer makers count themselves lucky to scrape up a 1% overall margin, because others lost money the same quarter in a race for the bottom.

As much as Apple's fans are overly defensive about Jobs & Apple, I think you are filling the other extreme and you're overly critical. You've repeatedly shown that you're on some sort of irrational crusade, and I think it's getting old.

The fact that it will be AppleTV PLUS the DVR functionality. DVRs don't have AppleTV functions right now.

AppleInsider needs to proofread their articles. That should be "its" not "it's".

You may not remember. But their was no iTunes when the iPod was first introduced. Steve Jobs said Apple estimated 60% of the music on iPods are ripped from CD's.

The important part of what I was saying that you missed was "legal". There is also convenience. Ripping CD's is legal and convenient. Ripping DVD's and circumventing copy protection is illegal and not convenient.

Th iPod has a number legal and easily accessible sources of content other than iTunes. Apple TV does not.


There is next to nothing identical about the mp3 market from 2001 and the current DVR market.

I guess I need to repeat myself...Apple does NOT need to get permission from studios to make a DVR if they want to. Just like JVC doesn't need their permission to make a VCR and El Gato doesn't need their permission to make EyeTV. I don't get where the notion is coming from that makers of recording devices used to record TV content need permission from the studios to sell them.

And yes, TiVo does have patents (just ask Dish ). But there are alternate ways to make DVRs which is why Motorola, Scientific American, El Gato, and a few others are able to make them. Also, it would take far more then a software upgrade. You'd probably burn out the hard drive in an Apple TV in about two weeks if you tried to use it in a DVR application (it's a laptop drive after all). And I'm doubtful it's even fast enough to be able to perform the most basic of DVR tasks (like record one show while viewing another).

Nokia dominates the smartphone market. Apple isn't about to change that any time soon.

The bigger problem is that their is no real competitive DVR market. The cable co's have it locked up and they aren't letting it go.

For those of you that are a little savvy and just can't wait, why not just build your own DVR/BD entertainment box? You can spec it out any way you like and the software is free.