Nintendo admits 'dark' future if it can't differentiate from iPhone

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  • Reply 121 of 133
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mesomorphicman View Post


    WSJ:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...534809890.html



    Does anyone read whole articles anymore or just react to headlines.



    Does anyone read the thread anymore or just react to the first comment they see and assume it wasn?t already addressed I couldn?t resist. These threads can get pretty long. i certainly don?t have the time to read them all.
  • Reply 122 of 133
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nikon133 View Post


    Um... where is that coming from..?



    From what I could find (quote): Well the iPhone 3GS is fast, but not that fast. According to AnandTech’s report, the 3GS is running a PowerVR SGX, most likely at 200 MHz. at that speed, it can push about 7 million triangles per second, and fill at rate of 250 million pixels per second.



    Compare that to the PSP, which pushes 33 million triangles per second, with a fill rate of 664 million pixels per second. (source)




    http://www.hardcoreware.net/graphics...-to-psp-to-ds/



    So basically, PSP is pushing almost 5x triangles and more than 2x fill rate, while maintaining much better battery life in 3D games, has dedicated controls and number of exclusive and high production value titles.



    That is not small difference.



    of course, you left off the rest of the quote



    Quote:

    It is certainly more powerful than the ARM9 powered DS, which does about 120,000 triangles per second (and is limited to 2048 triangles per frame, on both screens), with a fill rate of about 30 Million pixels per second. There are certainly some really great games on the DS, so graphics power isn’t everything.



    The Apple touch platform is in between the DS and PSP in power, and within the next year or so will have an installed base larger than both platforms combined. In addition, it already has many more games than both platforms combined, and that quantity and quality will only get better over time.



    And a solution to the DPad issue is in the works







    which includes another battery to double the iPhone/iPod battery life
  • Reply 123 of 133
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jfanning View Post


    Well following all the replies back through, yes I do.



    Well I wasn't, to quote myself from this very thread I'm talking about "Apples next generation of pocket devices" " right about the time they release the iPad"



    This generation of pocket devices from Apple is over, I have little interest in chatting and speculating about the iPhone in it's present form. Futurology is my thing.
  • Reply 124 of 133
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by alandail View Post


    And a solution to the DPad issue is in the works



    image: http://icontrolpad.com/ipadv2.png



    which includes another battery to double the iPhone/iPod battery life



    It?s a start, but I find this solution less than ideal. I?m surely not going to get something that large I?d like something that its the shape of the iPhone/Touch better. With a D-pad and primary buttons on next to the screen in landscape mode.



    Perhaps more importantly, Apple needs to offer a proper gaming API to make the transition from virtual controls to any number of 3rd-party accessory physical controls universal and automatic.
  • Reply 125 of 133
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ifail View Post


    Vinea on point 2 if you cant overtake the dominant monster overall it just leaves gaps in your model and leaves openings for competitors to come. Without japanese support (and thus Japanese Developer support) it leaves the holes for Nintendo to keep their A+ devs and keep customers in their square, since they will pay to play those game they make.



    Meh. Japanese gamers like japanese games. Despite all the things MS has done they got little ROI and traction in that market.



    Apple is a US company with a US focus. As long as they sold tons of iPod Touches outside Japan I'm sure they'd be happy to leave Nintendo to dominate their own home market.



    Quote:

    DS does have indie development, its called DSware their cheap titles from 2, 5 or 9 bucks.



    Find me a real indie title on DSiWare. Heck, point me at the DSiWare SDK.



    How much does the SDK cost anyway? For WiiWare it's $2-$10K. And you have to have a real office.



    http://www.warioworld.com/apply/



    Quote:

    for a console game, an average publisher makes about 30-35 dollars per game sold (assuming the retailers buy the games at 45 wholesale to be marked up at 59.99) this number goes up, especially for Nintendo since they dont pay royalties to themselves and they have in house devs. Nintendo will waive the royaltie fee for some high profile devs to get them on their system (5-7 dollars per game does add up in the grand scheme of things)



    Amazing! 1st party developers don't pay royalties! Who knew?



    The bottom line is that 30% is not out of line as you stated for a 3rd party dev for the console maker. The Forbes GoW breakdown puts the retail cut at 20%, the console license cut at 11.5%, product placement cost at 5%, manufacturing and packaging at 5%.



    That's 40% vs 30%.



    http://www.forbes.com/2006/12/19/ps3...sivegames.html



    Quote:

    iTunes has faltered many times under stress from iphone activations, how will it stand to compare against a few hundred thousand who will try and download a game at once (typically when it releases, its not that uncommon either for high profile games)?



    About the same as any other gigabyte iTunes download? A few hundred thousand isn't much.



    Quote:

    On your note, not everyone watches that many movies via iTunes and song downloads are like what 5-8MBs? it would take 30-50 people to add up to just one iphone OS download. They need to back up their infrastructure, maybe that monstrous server farm their making will make this possible.



    Or one movie at 1.5GB.



    2M films (july 2007) 200M TV episodes (oct 2008), 1M+ HD episodes (oct 2008).



    A tad higher today I think.



    Plus the 2B apps downloaded (sept 2009) and 8.5B songs sold (sept 2009).



    But obviously their infrastructure suxxors and needs help.



    Quote:

    On your last point, i dont see how its false. If your going to hit nintendo where it hurts, your aiming to take their younger market away from them as well...this is where the majority of their sales are. Many popular titles so far (excluding japanese specifics like dragon quest) are oriented for a younger generation. When you start to move up into the age group, you hit the teen market and at this time they are most likely looking into console gaming.



    Because a console gives you mobile gaming. Oh wait, it doesn't.



    Quote:

    Theoretical at 15, you have 200 bucks and you want to game, your going to lean towards a console (360 most likely but Wii is still cool and PS3 is out of range) and they have nice added benefits as well. After that, i would look for a Zune/Touch but because if i didnt have an MP3 player it would be the next logical thing to get seeing as how it can do quite a bit.



    If it were only kids bought consoles and games using their own money it would be a teeny tiny market. Oddly, it seems many kids with consoles, PC, laptops, iPods, DS and PSPs.
  • Reply 126 of 133
    ifailifail Posts: 463member
    So Vinea you are aware of how long that is spread out right for those iTunes downloads right? Those numbers are impressive but the fact is simply if it cant handle iphone releases, how would it fair against say maybe Modern Warfare 2 which initial estimates say 7 million sold in one day?



    As much as people want out of the retail market it just aint possible.



    Oh, and ill leave it on this last note, show me a game on the Touch/iphone that rivals Gran Turismo or Metal Gear Peacewalker and you'll have effectively shut me up, until then Real Racing GTi is the best you got, and its weak as hell.
  • Reply 127 of 133
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ifail View Post


    So Vinea you are aware of how long that is spread out right for those iTunes downloads right? Those numbers are impressive but the fact is simply if it cant handle iphone releases, how would it fair against say maybe Modern Warfare 2 which initial estimates say 7 million sold in one day?



    As much as people want out of the retail market it just aint possible.



    Oh, and ill leave it on this last note, show me a game on the Touch/iphone that rivals Gran Turismo or Metal Gear Peacewalker and you'll have effectively shut me up, until then Real Racing GTi is the best you got, and its weak as hell.



    are the iPhone release problems on Apple's end or on AT&T's end? iPhone activations are the only time Apple's iTunes servers have to rely on someone else's server (i.e. AT&T) to do part of the processing. And the release day of new models of iPhones are pretty much the only time there is a problem, and there is minimal data being transmitted. And those problems are isolated to iPhone activations, the iTunes store continues to operate just fine.
  • Reply 128 of 133
    ifailifail Posts: 463member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by alandail View Post


    are the iPhone release problems on Apple's end or on AT&T's end? iPhone activations are the only time Apple's iTunes servers have to rely on someone else's server (i.e. AT&T) to do part of the processing. And the release day of new models of iPhones are pretty much the only time there is a problem, and there is minimal data being transmitted. And those problems are isolated to iPhone activations, the iTunes store continues to operate just fine.



    Id assume they are on Apples end (they failed 3 times...consecutively at every launch and this is a worldwide issue, not just AT&T, the 3GS launch they even gave 30 dollar gift cards to users). 1 million people hit the servers and they crumble to their knees? How do you handle a high profile release? "Oh sorry we couldnt sell your game a few days after release cause our servers were getting hit too hard by downloads"
  • Reply 129 of 133
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ifail View Post


    Id assume they are on Apples end (they failed 3 times...consecutively at every launch and this is a worldwide issue, not just AT&T, the 3GS launch they even gave 30 dollar gift cards to users). 1 million people hit the servers and they crumble to their knees? How do you handle a high profile release? "Oh sorry we couldnt sell your game a few days after release cause our servers were getting hit too hard by downloads"



    they get hit by far more than that, with far more bandwidth used, on Christmas day when people are using their iTunes gift cards. It's really just not that much data being requested to think it's Apple's servers that otherwise handle the load just fine.
  • Reply 130 of 133
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nikon133 View Post


    Um... where is that coming from..?



    From what I could find (quote): Well the iPhone 3GS is fast, but not that fast. According to AnandTech?s report, the 3GS is running a PowerVR SGX, most likely at 200 MHz. at that speed, it can push about 7 million triangles per second, and fill at rate of 250 million pixels per second.



    Compare that to the PSP, which pushes 33 million triangles per second, with a fill rate of 664 million pixels per second. (source)




    http://www.hardcoreware.net/graphics...-to-psp-to-ds/



    So basically, PSP is pushing almost 5x triangles and more than 2x fill rate,



    That is not small difference.



    If that difference was real, it would be impressive.



    But it is not.



    Your source is about theoretical performance. Rendering infinitely small triangles and doing nothing else but drawing them in an overclocked system.



    In a highly optimised real-world application the PSP can only deliver about 2-3 million triangles per second. Trust me, I do this stuff for a living.



    The GPU in the 3GS and iPod touch is not only faster, but includes per-pixel shaders.



    You are right about battery life and physical controls, but in terms of graphics horsepower the PSP reflects its age.



    C.
  • Reply 131 of 133
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jfanning View Post


    That's funny, the Wii was sold at profit from day one. The NDS is selling at profit.



    Nintendo does make a modest profit on hardware. But it is a few dollars per unit.

    They make more profit on a the sale of a DS cart than on the DS itself. Which is why Nintendo hate used-game sales.



    To Nintendo, it is indistinguishable from piracy.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jfanning View Post


    If Apple successful at gaming on the iPhone (and looking at the quality of games available at the moment, I certainly hope it isn't) one of two things is going to happen.



    Apple is not in the gaming business. They are pretty indifferent to it.

    The quality, or lack of it, in the games is entirely down to the the developers.



    So the real issue is, will the iPod/iPhone platform attract developers from a business point of view. Can a developer make more money selling on iPhone than on PSP or DS.



    As a small independent developer, it is a no-brainer. They can make $7 on a $10 download.

    Versus $3 on a $30 cart they might get going through a publisher.



    For bigger game publishers, the issues are different.



    C.
  • Reply 132 of 133
    jfanningjfanning Posts: 3,398member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Carniphage View Post


    As a small independent developer, it is a no-brainer. They can make $7 on a $10 download.

    Versus $3 on a $30 cart they might get going through a publisher.



    But how many games are actually selling for that price? Looking at the app store, not many
  • Reply 133 of 133
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ifail View Post


    So Vinea you are aware of how long that is spread out right for those iTunes downloads right?



    They went from 8M to 15M videos sold between Jan 10 2006 and Feb 23, 2006. That's three years ago.



    Quote:

    Those numbers are impressive but the fact is simply if it cant handle iphone releases, how would it fair against say maybe Modern Warfare 2 which initial estimates say 7 million sold in one day?



    iPhone releases require AT&T servers to handle new accounts.



    They did 200M apps between September 9, 2009 and September 28, 2009. So that's 10M app store transactions alone on top of movies, songs, etc. Yes, their system can handle 7M downloads in a day given they averaged 10M a day over that period. As far as download size it'll take longer for a 1GB title but the store itself can handle the transaction load.



    Quote:

    As much as people want out of the retail market it just aint possible.



    Yes, because iTunes Store has been a dismal failure.



    Quote:

    Oh, and ill leave it on this last note, show me a game on the Touch/iphone that rivals Gran Turismo or Metal Gear Peacewalker and you'll have effectively shut me up, until then Real Racing GTi is the best you got, and its weak as hell.



    Given we've been talking about the iPhone going after the casual game market neither titles are really the ones to be looking for. Is Rock Band coming to the iPhone? Yes. Is Sims on the iPhone? Yes. Is NFL 2010 a good sports game on the iPhone? Yes. These are the genres that I think Apple will focus on and will use to expand their gaming footprint.



    As for other genres, Modern Combat: Sandstorm is on the iPhone. Hero of Sparta is a God of War knockoff. And yes, there's Real Racing and NFS. Besides, there wasn't even an iPhone when GT was announced in 2004. After 5 years as vapor it sure as hell better look good. The PSP has always been better than the DS for these titles because the demographic is older. Plus the analog stick is an advantage.



    And MG:P isn't out yet. We'll see what iPhone games are out in 2010 in 2010.
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