'catalyst', what catalyst? the catalyst that will make the iPad a runaway success from the get-go IS the instant availability of approx. 140'000 apps [give or take]!
aside from the iPhone/iPodTouch on the small form factor side, there has never been a 'nearly full sized' mobile device with such über-flexible-instant-out-of-the-box configurability!
the age of tablet-computing has finally arrived, and apple has a most serious head start with it's iPad/AppStore/iBookStore/iTunes closed loop package.
My guess is Steve Jobs is going to enable RENTING of e-books on the iPad.
This is why the publishers need a higher price shift for purchasing.
Steve plans on selling iPads to schools en massé, instead of students carrying a bunch of heavy books around, they will have a thin iPad in their notebooks with will be uploaded with books rented by schools, cheaper than purchasing the books.
Also newspapers and other forms of disposable media.
The publishers save 50% of their costs with e-books over traditional books and the schools will save money as they can get volume licensing.
Industry analysts seem to have a knack for getting it wrong, perhaps because so many of them seem to lack common sense. Would I buy a iPad instead of an iPod touch. Not very likely. I have a touch and it's a very different beast. It slips into my pocket and goes with me everywhere. I'm more likely to leave home having forgotten my cell phone than my trusty touch. I use my touch a lot traveling and out on walks to listen to podcasts. I can't imagine myself doing that with an iPad. I'd look silly.
I'm thinking about getting an iPad late in 2010, but it won't be as a touch replacement. The beast is far too big to carry with me everywhere. In the short-term it won't replace anything except perhaps books. The work apps on my MacBook (such as Scrivener) don't yet exist on an iPad. In the long term, if enough writing/working apps migrate to the iPad, it still probably won't substitute for a laptop, it'll just delay how often I upgrade. And in the end, Apple will probably get more money out of me rather than less.
Well said. I don't anticipate anyone walking around with their iPads on a daily basis. I don't even see people lugging around a netbook either. It is not exactly a "portable" device to be carried around daily. I can do more on the iPhone without having to lug around a silly looking iPad.
Well said. I don't anticipate anyone walking around with their iPads on a daily basis. I don't even see people lugging around a netbook either. It is not exactly a "portable" device to be carried around daily. I can do more on the iPhone without having to lug around a silly looking iPad.
Not to mention if you pull out an iPad on the NYC subway you might as well wear a sign on your forehead that reads "MUG ME".
I actually think demand will be so high we'll end up with delays and issues due to stock levels and suppliers matching demand.
Here's somebody that knows how Apple operates, alright.
I reiterate my prediction of 10 million units by end of 2010.
In between all sorts of crazy demand globally that Apple will struggle to keep up with - also because Apple is geared for between 2 to 5 million units.
i completely agree with this statement. I think there will be shortages from day 1. Lines around the block at the Apple stores. Youtube unboxing frenzy, geeks swooning and fainting and the gnashing of teeth from those that couldn't get one.
That's a nice dream you have. Doubtful it will be true. The most press the iPad has gotten has been the joke of the name that they gave it. The MadTV iPad parody has gotten more views than when it originally aired.
Really? Are you sure about that? You cannot use an iPad without already owning a Mac or PC computer
Yes, you can - that's a nonsense statement. This device is for media consumption and has a closed ecosystem of content delivery. Re your further comments about wifi 'set-up', I'm not sure how it works in the USA, but in the UK, BT or Virgin turn up at your house with the kit, plug it in and it works.
Pick up pad, turn on, hit internet icon, enter URL. There ya go. Even my dad can do that (he's sat with credit card at hand as I type).
Of course this thing will sync with a computer, but it doesn't have to in order to achieve its stated potential.
I think they are grossly underestimating the impact of this device and it's entry level price point. [...] Nor do I think it will have a significant impact on iPod Touch sales either; those numbers will continue to increase.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman
I think they underestimate the appeal of the iPad. I imagine it will become the new home laptop. It may eat into all sorts of other sales but more than anything it will allow people to get a cheap home computer that truly is easy to use, and at a great price.I think it will become a 'new' addition more than it will cannibalize. [...]
I'm not going to predict sales numbers, although I think the iPad will sell very well, but I agree that it probably won't cut into iPod Touch sales that much, and that it will become the new laptop, in a sense. In fact, if it cuts into anything, it may well be laptops, although, this may end up boosting desktop sales.
I think a lot of people are now buying laptops a) because laptops are cool, b) because they want something they can take with them when traveling, mostly for email and light web browsing, and c) because they want to be able to web surf/email/im around the house. The iPad is way cooler than a laptop. It's also much better for surfing around the house. And, unless you have very serious work to do on the road, it's probably also much better for travel, for most people. When you consider that you can get an iMac, with considerably more screen real estate than a laptop, for when you need to do serious work, and also get an iPad, for much the same price combined as a laptop, does it really make sense to buy a laptop instead?
I think that a lot of people are going to move back to desktops+tablets, and away from laptops, and that laptops will go back to being for "road warriors" and people who really need to be able to do serious work when occasionally away from home (and maybe college students, for whom an iPad alone wouldn't be appropriate and for whom small dorm rooms and desks often make laptops more attractive options). This is a trend that will, if anything, be accelerated by cloud storage: rather than lugging your laptop home from work you'll just be able to access work from home, and most of the time you'd rather do that on a larger screen. at a desk.
The iPad is NOT something that can replace a computer.
Yes, that's the whole point of the device.
It's not a replacement for anything, it's a new type of device.
Did you watch the keynote?
It's for people who don't need the 'full' computer experience - people who just want to browse the web, check their email (hotmail probably!) and listen to music while reading books.
i completely agree with this statement. I think there will be shortages from day 1. Lines around the block at the Apple stores. Youtube unboxing frenzy, geeks swooning and fainting and the gnashing of teeth from those that couldn't get one.
I don't think it will be all that, sure there will be the typical un-boxing and the brave dissection photo's (big hit traffic there!)
But I don't think we will see the lines outside of Apple Store for the iPad and this is why.
The iPad is a not a computer geek thing, it's not all that powerful or feature rich. Most have already heard that the iPad sports a camera, so they are going to wait for the better version to come out.
A regular Mac does 10x more things than the iPad does, so why spend upwards of $700 when a few hundred more buys you a REAL computer?
This iPad is a accessory, families might buy it for their kids, schools may buy it for their students. Both won't be standing in long lines overnight for it.
There might be a few in line before a Apple Store opens, these people make their money by evaluating first products or shipping them off to Redmond and the cloners.
No need to break out the crowd barriers on this one.
That's a nice dream you have. Doubtful it will be true. The most press the iPad has gotten has been the joke of the name that they gave it. The MadTV iPad parody has gotten more views than when it originally aired.
it's funny, because Nintendo's "Wii" received a similar response in the UK. We don't really talk about 'pads' as sanitary products in the UK, if it had been called the "iTampax" then there would have been more than a little amusement this side of the pond.
That the "wii" sounds like the UK slang for "urine" hasn't dented sales, I can assure you.
It's not a replacement for anything, it's a new type of device.
Did you watch the keynote?
It's for people who don't need the 'full' computer experience - people who just want to browse the web, check their email (hotmail probably!) and listen to music while reading books.
Yes, you can - that's a nonsense statement. This device is for media consumption and has a closed ecosystem of content delivery. Re your further comments about wifi 'set-up', I'm not sure how it works in the USA, but in the UK, BT or Virgin turn up at your house with the kit, plug it in and it works.
Pick up pad, turn on, hit internet icon, enter URL. There ya go. Even my dad can do that (he's sat with credit card at hand as I type).
Of course this thing will sync with a computer, but it doesn't have to in order to achieve its stated potential.
And since you don't live in the USA, you don't know how things work. People have to set up their own Wi-Fi networks with their own wireless routers in the USA...and you need a computer for that. Since Apple is touting it as a media device including music and video, you DO need a computer if you want to put your own music and videos on it.
Not to mention if you pull out an iPad on the NYC subway you might as well wear a sign on your forehead that reads "MUG ME".
Yeah, well, that's NYC for you. When visiting the city oh, almost 10 years ago, I got caught during peak hour suddenly walking against the flow of foot traffic in the subway station. A guy just held my shoulders, shifted me to the side, and continued. It was so efficient it wasn't actually rude. I felt like a real tourist though.
San Francisco, no worries on their light rail transit and Caltrain, unless it's late at night. The bus is too bumpy though. As I recall.
So the iPad will be useable in the public transport of some cities, and not others. Thanks for playing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TEKSTUD
My advice is to wait until the end of 2010 for the holiday when the 32 GB should be avialable for $499 maybe $399.
This I have to agree with. *rubs hands* ...Where I am now, it's still a disgusting process trying to get an iPhone 3GS, with the plans and waiting and slow warranty claims. --I did get an iPhone 3G (now with my mom) and an iPhone 3GS. Long story. So anyways who knows with the 3G and micro-SIMS (who heard of that before this, huh)...
However, $399 for 32GB WiFi version with iPhone/iPad OS 4.0+ = RESISTANCE IS FUTILE.
Bonus points for hackers setting up 3G tethering from iPhone to iPad for when you don't have WiFi.
I think they underestimate the appeal of the iPad. I imagine it will become the new home laptop. It may eat into all sorts of other sales but more than anything it will allow people to get a cheap home computer that truly is easy to use, and at a great price.I think it will become a 'new' addition more than it will cannibalize. I can even see people finding all sorts of dedicated uses for it such as a dedicated itunes / music / radio player, and as the storage capacity increases, also a video player. As a first computer for kids it is perfect, etc etc.
I think the iPad could also become the ultimate TV remote controller.
I'll trust them that the e-book reader won't ignite sales; Amazon might have sold 1MM units in the 4th quarter on devices arguably better suited for the task. Apple will easily steal the Kindle DX and Plastic Logic sales, and might take a pretty big hit on the Nook, but that isn't going to be a huge factor in my mind.
But the real catalyst is already there in the App Store. Looking through the apps I use, the extra real-estate could be put to good use. I'm not quite sure if I could use the iPad in bed the way I use the iPhone, but the couch should be fine.
For me, the iPad's killer app would be SketchUp, as that is the only application I use my net/notebooks for.
Comments
aside from the iPhone/iPodTouch on the small form factor side, there has never been a 'nearly full sized' mobile device with such über-flexible-instant-out-of-the-box configurability!
the age of tablet-computing has finally arrived, and apple has a most serious head start with it's iPad/AppStore/iBookStore/iTunes closed loop package.
This is why the publishers need a higher price shift for purchasing.
Steve plans on selling iPads to schools en massé, instead of students carrying a bunch of heavy books around, they will have a thin iPad in their notebooks with will be uploaded with books rented by schools, cheaper than purchasing the books.
Also newspapers and other forms of disposable media.
The publishers save 50% of their costs with e-books over traditional books and the schools will save money as they can get volume licensing.
Steve can sell a lot of iPads. Everyone wins.
Industry analysts seem to have a knack for getting it wrong, perhaps because so many of them seem to lack common sense. Would I buy a iPad instead of an iPod touch. Not very likely. I have a touch and it's a very different beast. It slips into my pocket and goes with me everywhere. I'm more likely to leave home having forgotten my cell phone than my trusty touch. I use my touch a lot traveling and out on walks to listen to podcasts. I can't imagine myself doing that with an iPad. I'd look silly.
I'm thinking about getting an iPad late in 2010, but it won't be as a touch replacement. The beast is far too big to carry with me everywhere. In the short-term it won't replace anything except perhaps books. The work apps on my MacBook (such as Scrivener) don't yet exist on an iPad. In the long term, if enough writing/working apps migrate to the iPad, it still probably won't substitute for a laptop, it'll just delay how often I upgrade. And in the end, Apple will probably get more money out of me rather than less.
Well said. I don't anticipate anyone walking around with their iPads on a daily basis. I don't even see people lugging around a netbook either. It is not exactly a "portable" device to be carried around daily. I can do more on the iPhone without having to lug around a silly looking iPad.
Well said. I don't anticipate anyone walking around with their iPads on a daily basis. I don't even see people lugging around a netbook either. It is not exactly a "portable" device to be carried around daily. I can do more on the iPhone without having to lug around a silly looking iPad.
Not to mention if you pull out an iPad on the NYC subway you might as well wear a sign on your forehead that reads "MUG ME".
I actually think demand will be so high we'll end up with delays and issues due to stock levels and suppliers matching demand.
Here's somebody that knows how Apple operates, alright.
I reiterate my prediction of 10 million units by end of 2010.
In between all sorts of crazy demand globally that Apple will struggle to keep up with - also because Apple is geared for between 2 to 5 million units.
i completely agree with this statement. I think there will be shortages from day 1. Lines around the block at the Apple stores. Youtube unboxing frenzy, geeks swooning and fainting and the gnashing of teeth from those that couldn't get one.
That's a nice dream you have. Doubtful it will be true. The most press the iPad has gotten has been the joke of the name that they gave it. The MadTV iPad parody has gotten more views than when it originally aired.
Really? Are you sure about that? You cannot use an iPad without already owning a Mac or PC computer
Yes, you can - that's a nonsense statement. This device is for media consumption and has a closed ecosystem of content delivery. Re your further comments about wifi 'set-up', I'm not sure how it works in the USA, but in the UK, BT or Virgin turn up at your house with the kit, plug it in and it works.
Pick up pad, turn on, hit internet icon, enter URL. There ya go. Even my dad can do that (he's sat with credit card at hand as I type).
Of course this thing will sync with a computer, but it doesn't have to in order to achieve its stated potential.
Not to mention if you pull out an iPad on the NYC subway you might as well wear a sign on your forehead that reads "MUG ME".
You got that right. You might as well be wearing a sign, "Look at me! I am an iDouchebag!"
I think they are grossly underestimating the impact of this device and it's entry level price point. [...] Nor do I think it will have a significant impact on iPod Touch sales either; those numbers will continue to increase.
I think they underestimate the appeal of the iPad. I imagine it will become the new home laptop. It may eat into all sorts of other sales but more than anything it will allow people to get a cheap home computer that truly is easy to use, and at a great price.I think it will become a 'new' addition more than it will cannibalize. [...]
I'm not going to predict sales numbers, although I think the iPad will sell very well, but I agree that it probably won't cut into iPod Touch sales that much, and that it will become the new laptop, in a sense. In fact, if it cuts into anything, it may well be laptops, although, this may end up boosting desktop sales.
I think a lot of people are now buying laptops a) because laptops are cool, b) because they want something they can take with them when traveling, mostly for email and light web browsing, and c) because they want to be able to web surf/email/im around the house. The iPad is way cooler than a laptop. It's also much better for surfing around the house. And, unless you have very serious work to do on the road, it's probably also much better for travel, for most people. When you consider that you can get an iMac, with considerably more screen real estate than a laptop, for when you need to do serious work, and also get an iPad, for much the same price combined as a laptop, does it really make sense to buy a laptop instead?
I think that a lot of people are going to move back to desktops+tablets, and away from laptops, and that laptops will go back to being for "road warriors" and people who really need to be able to do serious work when occasionally away from home (and maybe college students, for whom an iPad alone wouldn't be appropriate and for whom small dorm rooms and desks often make laptops more attractive options). This is a trend that will, if anything, be accelerated by cloud storage: rather than lugging your laptop home from work you'll just be able to access work from home, and most of the time you'd rather do that on a larger screen. at a desk.
The iPad is NOT something that can replace a computer.
Yes, that's the whole point of the device.
It's not a replacement for anything, it's a new type of device.
Did you watch the keynote?
It's for people who don't need the 'full' computer experience - people who just want to browse the web, check their email (hotmail probably!) and listen to music while reading books.
i completely agree with this statement. I think there will be shortages from day 1. Lines around the block at the Apple stores. Youtube unboxing frenzy, geeks swooning and fainting and the gnashing of teeth from those that couldn't get one.
I don't think it will be all that, sure there will be the typical un-boxing and the brave dissection photo's (big hit traffic there!)
But I don't think we will see the lines outside of Apple Store for the iPad and this is why.
The iPad is a not a computer geek thing, it's not all that powerful or feature rich. Most have already heard that the iPad sports a camera, so they are going to wait for the better version to come out.
A regular Mac does 10x more things than the iPad does, so why spend upwards of $700 when a few hundred more buys you a REAL computer?
This iPad is a accessory, families might buy it for their kids, schools may buy it for their students. Both won't be standing in long lines overnight for it.
There might be a few in line before a Apple Store opens, these people make their money by evaluating first products or shipping them off to Redmond and the cloners.
No need to break out the crowd barriers on this one.
That's a nice dream you have. Doubtful it will be true. The most press the iPad has gotten has been the joke of the name that they gave it. The MadTV iPad parody has gotten more views than when it originally aired.
it's funny, because Nintendo's "Wii" received a similar response in the UK. We don't really talk about 'pads' as sanitary products in the UK, if it had been called the "iTampax" then there would have been more than a little amusement this side of the pond.
That the "wii" sounds like the UK slang for "urine" hasn't dented sales, I can assure you.
Yes, that's the whole point of the device.
It's not a replacement for anything, it's a new type of device.
Did you watch the keynote?
It's for people who don't need the 'full' computer experience - people who just want to browse the web, check their email (hotmail probably!) and listen to music while reading books.
In other words a device for dumb couch potatoes?
Yes, you can - that's a nonsense statement. This device is for media consumption and has a closed ecosystem of content delivery. Re your further comments about wifi 'set-up', I'm not sure how it works in the USA, but in the UK, BT or Virgin turn up at your house with the kit, plug it in and it works.
Pick up pad, turn on, hit internet icon, enter URL. There ya go. Even my dad can do that (he's sat with credit card at hand as I type).
Of course this thing will sync with a computer, but it doesn't have to in order to achieve its stated potential.
And since you don't live in the USA, you don't know how things work. People have to set up their own Wi-Fi networks with their own wireless routers in the USA...and you need a computer for that. Since Apple is touting it as a media device including music and video, you DO need a computer if you want to put your own music and videos on it.
Not to mention if you pull out an iPad on the NYC subway you might as well wear a sign on your forehead that reads "MUG ME".
Yeah, well, that's NYC for you. When visiting the city oh, almost 10 years ago, I got caught during peak hour suddenly walking against the flow of foot traffic in the subway station. A guy just held my shoulders, shifted me to the side, and continued. It was so efficient it wasn't actually rude. I felt like a real tourist though.
San Francisco, no worries on their light rail transit and Caltrain, unless it's late at night. The bus is too bumpy though. As I recall.
So the iPad will be useable in the public transport of some cities, and not others. Thanks for playing.
My advice is to wait until the end of 2010 for the holiday when the 32 GB should be avialable for $499 maybe $399.
This I have to agree with. *rubs hands* ...Where I am now, it's still a disgusting process trying to get an iPhone 3GS, with the plans and waiting and slow warranty claims. --I did get an iPhone 3G (now with my mom) and an iPhone 3GS. Long story. So anyways who knows with the 3G and micro-SIMS (who heard of that before this, huh)...
However, $399 for 32GB WiFi version with iPhone/iPad OS 4.0+ = RESISTANCE IS FUTILE.
Bonus points for hackers setting up 3G tethering from iPhone to iPad for when you don't have WiFi.
I think they underestimate the appeal of the iPad. I imagine it will become the new home laptop. It may eat into all sorts of other sales but more than anything it will allow people to get a cheap home computer that truly is easy to use, and at a great price.I think it will become a 'new' addition more than it will cannibalize. I can even see people finding all sorts of dedicated uses for it such as a dedicated itunes / music / radio player, and as the storage capacity increases, also a video player. As a first computer for kids it is perfect, etc etc.
I think the iPad could also become the ultimate TV remote controller.
You got that right. You might as well be wearing a sign, "Look at me! I am an iDouchebag!"
When you start seeing people carrying them around, you should grow some balls and tell that to them to their face.
But the real catalyst is already there in the App Store. Looking through the apps I use, the extra real-estate could be put to good use. I'm not quite sure if I could use the iPad in bed the way I use the iPhone, but the couch should be fine.
For me, the iPad's killer app would be SketchUp, as that is the only application I use my net/notebooks for.
Wow, that is a good scientific study. You should become an analyst!
With an analysis like that, I'd say he already is one!