My point is that when broken down by individual phone models, the iPhone is (very likely) the best selling smartphone in the world..
No need to guess. This is a job for objective reality, and not opinion.
Google on "best selling smartphone". I glanced at the results, and did not study them, but the Blackberry Curve seems to be cited as the best selling smartphone based on my brief review.
If you sell 1 phone, then sell another, your growth is now 100%
How is it you're never on point. Just admit that you don't understand what marketshare is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfanning
They all have email, they all have internet browsers, they all support 3rd party applications, why are they not smartphones?
Yeah, they do, in an unintelligent way... not unlike every post you make. By your definition, pretty much every phone is a smartphone. WAP does not a smartphone make.
In a few years time - ALL phones will be smartphones. Kids will open cereal packets and find free Smartphones inside. The kids will say "oh crap, its just another Nokia!" and drop it in the trash.
And that's why Nokia's claim to have sold 20M smartphones is so irrelevant.
Because "in the future it will be different", that is why Nokia's current numbers are irrelevant?
Cherry picking a headline that was dubious at best and pretending that that negates the market leading growth in iPhone shipments
Last I knew, the market leader in growth was Android. Or Motorola. And the last I knew, the iPhone was growing more slowly than even the market average.
Last I knew, the market leader in growth was Android. Or Motorola. And the last I knew, the iPhone was growing more slowly than even the market average.
I'd love to see your data. If it exists.
If the period was the last two months, then yeah sure, in terms of growth in the US, Android is kicking butt as an OS and Motorola as a smartphone maker. Part of that is because the Droid (and other Android phones) were just released on Verizon (and others). This is like MS saying that the Zune was the leader in growth in the US for hard-disk drive based music players two months after the launch of that first Zune.
The data clearly exists for the iPhone on a full year basis. Using IDC figures, for 2007 to 2009, iPhone has sold 3.7m, 13.8m, and 25.1m units. RIM has sold 11.8m, 23.6m, and 34.5m. Nokia has sold 60.5m, 60.5m, and 67.8m. The total smartphone market was 120m, 150m, and 175m. Apple and RIM have grown faster than the market growth rate, Nokia slower.
Note that market share, which is a lagging indicator, is irrelevant unless you can use it to:
1. confirm the longer-term trend that leads your company to implement the right strategies and actions, and/or
2. reinforce the confidence of your ecosystem partners to move ahead and create related products because there will be an adequate/growing market for the foreseeable future.
Note: I agree that Apple partisans also take market share out of context.
If the period was the last two months, then yeah sure, in terms of growth in the US, Android is kicking butt as an OS and Motorola as a smartphone maker. Part of that is because the Droid (and other Android phones) were just released on Verizon (and others). This is like MS saying that the Zune was the leader in growth in the US for hard-disk drive based music players two months after the launch of that first Zune.
The data clearly exists for the iPhone on a full year basis. Using IDC figures, for 2007 to 2009, iPhone has sold 3.7m, 13.8m, and 25.1m units. RIM has sold 11.8m, 23.6m, and 34.5m. Nokia has sold 60.5m, 60.5m, and 67.8m. The total smartphone market was 120m, 150m, and 175m. Apple and RIM have grown faster than the market growth rate, Nokia slower.
Note that market share, which is a lagging indicator, is irrelevant unless you can use it to:
1. confirm the longer-term trend that leads your company to implement the right strategies and actions, and/or
2. reinforce the confidence of your ecosystem partners to move ahead and create related products because there will be an adequate/growing market for the foreseeable future.
Note: I agree that Apple partisans also take market share out of context.
All very interesting points. But why were Android sales left out of the YOY analysis?
Do you have YOY info for Android?
The best I could come up with quickly is http://gigaom.com/2009/11/22/admob-october/ which seems to analyze the period between April and October, 2009. Some interesting factoids:
# Worldwide requests from Android devices increased 5.8 times since April 2009 in the AdMob network.
# In the US, Android has 20 percent share of smartphone traffic versus 7 percent in April 2009.
I question the relevance of this data, and if you have any pointers to additional facts, I'd love to see them.
The iPhone will plateau eventually, for the simple reason that their exclusivity deals with carriers simply limits their market potential. Not everybody wants to sign up with the Apple approved carrier because the iPhone usually comes with longer than average contracts and higher than averagre tariffs/rateplans.
The numbers are phenomenal now, because the iPhone is still a relatively new product and is still rolling out into new markets. And of course, with every new market they'll get new market share which makes their growth stats seem almost unbelievable. But sooner or later, they'll run out of new markets.
What would be interesting to look at is markets where they are already established but have an exlcusivity agreement like the US. What is their year-over-year growth here and how does it compare to other handset makers? It'll also be interesting to see how the iPhone stacks up as more decent competitors come on stream (like the Nexus One for example). Do they put a dent in the iPhone's market share growth?
The next few years are going to be interesting for sure. We'll know more as the markets the iPhone in is in become mature for it. Who knows, maybe by then Apple will start selling unlocked iPhones, which would be a whole new ballgame. Right now, this is the big differentiator and where I think Apple is going to hit a wall. For example, here in Canada, although all 3 major telcos sell the iphone, all three sell it at the same price, with 3 year contracts for monthly plans that are usually a lot higher than other phones. And this is a big deal as new telcos are coming on stream here in Canada and are set to lower prices dramatically. The choice really then for Canadians is between a $200 iPhone and an $80/month bill for limited voice and data on a 3 year contract (Rogers gives 400 daytime minutes, evenings at 9pm, 2 GB data, 100 text msgs for $80) or a $550 Blackberry (Bold 9700 unlocked on Wind) and unlmited voice, data, long distance and sms/mms for between $70-$80 per month with no contract, on one of the new telcos.
When the difference is that huge in monthly costs, there is no product that Apple can make that can overcome the reluctance to sign a 3 year deal that locks you into a situation where you are getting less every month and risk not being able to upgrade your phone and take advantage of new deals for 3 years. So in Canada anyway, I think we'll see a plateau here soon. Pretty much everyone that wants an iPhone is going to have one soon. The rest who don't want such expensive monthly bills will get something else (for example, the Nexus One coming soon to Wind) and go for a cheaper plan. An iPhone isn't all that useful if you don't have the data and voice package to actual use the device a lot.
The iPhone will plateau eventually, for the simple reason that their exclusivity deals with carriers simply limits their market potential. Not everybody wants to sign up with the Apple approved carrier because the iPhone usually comes with longer than average contracts and higher than averagre tariffs/rateplans.
The numbers are phenomenal now, because the iPhone is still a relatively new product and is still rolling out into new markets. And of course, with every new market they'll get new market share which makes their growth stats seem almost unbelievable. But sooner or later, they'll run out of new markets.
You make some good points, but I'm not sure Apple has to support CDMA right now, if at all in the US. They still have plenty of avenues to pursue. There is still T-Mobile in the US, the option of AT&T not requiring a data plan for those wanting more of an iPod Touch with a basic phone, and, of course, releasing a cheaper simpler device like they did with the iPod.
Then there are also scaling issues that may hold back expansion. There were several months last summer that the iPhone was in short supply. If they do release a CDMA-based device it might released at a different time than the GSM version.
All very interesting points. But why were Android sales left out of the YOY analysis?
Do you have YOY info for Android?
The best I could come up with quickly is http://gigaom.com/2009/11/22/admob-october/ which seems to analyze the period between April and October, 2009. Some interesting factoids:
# Worldwide requests from Android devices increased 5.8 times since April 2009 in the AdMob network.
# In the US, Android has 20 percent share of smartphone traffic versus 7 percent in April 2009.
I question the relevance of this data, and if you have any pointers to additional facts, I'd love to see them.
Android sales are left out because IDC hasn't begun to report it in their press releases. (It may be in their expensive reports but I'm not going to pay for their reports.) To get some idea, HTC sold 7.5m units in 2008, and 8.1m units in 2009, but I don't have a breakout of WinMo vs Android for HTC. Motorola is estimated to have sold 2.5m smartphones in 4Q09 compared to 1.6m in 4Q08, but these numbers include the Moto Q and Krave and other non-Android smartphones (Mot had zero Android in 4Q08).
The Admob data you're pointing to shows the market share of ads delivered over a particular phone model or OS. That data clearly shows that some smartphones disproportionately access the web and disproportionately display web-supplied ads. Android-based phones and iPhones (and maybe WebOS-based Palms) access web and ads way more than their number of units would imply. (This relates to the other discussion in this thread - is a phone considered a smartphone because it can run a web browser? Or is it a smartphone only if the phone is really used significantly to browse the web? Is that a valid distinction?)
One can infer growth in Android-based phones during the whole year from this Admob data with a boost around the time of Droid/Droid Eris, but that's about all . I don't think there is enough data to determine if there is any correlation between Admob data and units for Androids and iPhones.
Comments
Understood and I never said otherwise..
My point is that when broken down by individual phone models, the iPhone is (very likely) the best selling smartphone in the world..
No need to guess. This is a job for objective reality, and not opinion.
Google on "best selling smartphone". I glanced at the results, and did not study them, but the Blackberry Curve seems to be cited as the best selling smartphone based on my brief review.
If you sell 1 phone, then sell another, your growth is now 100%
How is it you're never on point. Just admit that you don't understand what marketshare is.
They all have email, they all have internet browsers, they all support 3rd party applications, why are they not smartphones?
Yeah, they do, in an unintelligent way... not unlike every post you make. By your definition, pretty much every phone is a smartphone. WAP does not a smartphone make.
75% market share is not unreasonable,
Did you know that currently, iPhone market share is falling? While anything is possible for the future, I believe your 75% to be optimistic.
They all have email, they all have internet browsers, they all support 3rd party applications, why are they not smartphones?
Technically they are.
And soon *every* phone will be a smartphone. Which shows that the category is pretty meaningless.
Business-wise the profitable devices are all at the top-end. They sit in a $500+ category of "superphone".
Nokia's N-Range devices fit into this category - and their year on year sales have halved.
iPhones also fit into this category and their year on year sales are doubling.
The fact that Nokia ALSO shovels out 10M low-end symbian devices isn't commercially relevant unless they can make some profit from them.
C.
Which 'smart'phone can you get for $100?!
FWIW, Verizon lists 22 different phones as "3G Smartphones". Of the 22, 6 cost more than $100 with a contract.
I haven't looked at anybody else's current promotions.
In a few years time - ALL phones will be smartphones. Kids will open cereal packets and find free Smartphones inside. The kids will say "oh crap, its just another Nokia!" and drop it in the trash.
And that's why Nokia's claim to have sold 20M smartphones is so irrelevant.
Because "in the future it will be different", that is why Nokia's current numbers are irrelevant?
Huh?
Also I can never understand why anyone cares about market share.
Developers care because it is relevant to their addressable market. Consumers care because it affects the availability of apps and accessories.
Investors care because it is a factor used to illuminate future prospects.
Lots more groups of folks care for lots more reasons.
Cherry picking a headline that was dubious at best and pretending that that negates the market leading growth in iPhone shipments
Last I knew, the market leader in growth was Android. Or Motorola. And the last I knew, the iPhone was growing more slowly than even the market average.
I'd love to see your data. If it exists.
Anyone disagree with this thinking?
Yes. It is not based upon facts, but rather, upon guesses.
This is not a case where reasoned guesses are necessary. This is a case where facts are necessary.
And your conclusions are not based upon facts.
They all have email, they all have internet browsers, they all support 3rd party applications, why are they not smartphones?
Because folks here redefine words if it will help them to dispute inconvenient truths.
The fact that Nokia ALSO shovels out 10M low-end symbian devices isn't commercially relevant unless they can make some profit from them.
"Nokia's net profit was euro948 million ($1.3 billion) in the last three months of 2009, up from euro576 million in the last quarter of 2008"
Why oh why do so few folks here look at facts? They take shibboleths, use them as a basis for extrapolation, and come to erroneous conclusions.
Facts are pretty easy to find these days. Defective methods of deduction are not the best technique for finding truths.
Where does the iPhone stand amongst phones that don't suck?
If its not an iPhone, than it would really suck to use.
Where does the iPhone stand amongst phones that don't suck?
Apple would then be the world's ONLY seller of smartphones, with 100% market share.
Happy now?
Last I knew, the market leader in growth was Android. Or Motorola. And the last I knew, the iPhone was growing more slowly than even the market average.
I'd love to see your data. If it exists.
If the period was the last two months, then yeah sure, in terms of growth in the US, Android is kicking butt as an OS and Motorola as a smartphone maker. Part of that is because the Droid (and other Android phones) were just released on Verizon (and others). This is like MS saying that the Zune was the leader in growth in the US for hard-disk drive based music players two months after the launch of that first Zune.
The data clearly exists for the iPhone on a full year basis. Using IDC figures, for 2007 to 2009, iPhone has sold 3.7m, 13.8m, and 25.1m units. RIM has sold 11.8m, 23.6m, and 34.5m. Nokia has sold 60.5m, 60.5m, and 67.8m. The total smartphone market was 120m, 150m, and 175m. Apple and RIM have grown faster than the market growth rate, Nokia slower.
Note that market share, which is a lagging indicator, is irrelevant unless you can use it to:
1. confirm the longer-term trend that leads your company to implement the right strategies and actions, and/or
2. reinforce the confidence of your ecosystem partners to move ahead and create related products because there will be an adequate/growing market for the foreseeable future.
Note: I agree that Apple partisans also take market share out of context.
If the period was the last two months, then yeah sure, in terms of growth in the US, Android is kicking butt as an OS and Motorola as a smartphone maker. Part of that is because the Droid (and other Android phones) were just released on Verizon (and others). This is like MS saying that the Zune was the leader in growth in the US for hard-disk drive based music players two months after the launch of that first Zune.
The data clearly exists for the iPhone on a full year basis. Using IDC figures, for 2007 to 2009, iPhone has sold 3.7m, 13.8m, and 25.1m units. RIM has sold 11.8m, 23.6m, and 34.5m. Nokia has sold 60.5m, 60.5m, and 67.8m. The total smartphone market was 120m, 150m, and 175m. Apple and RIM have grown faster than the market growth rate, Nokia slower.
Note that market share, which is a lagging indicator, is irrelevant unless you can use it to:
1. confirm the longer-term trend that leads your company to implement the right strategies and actions, and/or
2. reinforce the confidence of your ecosystem partners to move ahead and create related products because there will be an adequate/growing market for the foreseeable future.
Note: I agree that Apple partisans also take market share out of context.
All very interesting points. But why were Android sales left out of the YOY analysis?
Do you have YOY info for Android?
The best I could come up with quickly is http://gigaom.com/2009/11/22/admob-october/ which seems to analyze the period between April and October, 2009. Some interesting factoids:
# Worldwide requests from Android devices increased 5.8 times since April 2009 in the AdMob network.
# In the US, Android has 20 percent share of smartphone traffic versus 7 percent in April 2009.
I question the relevance of this data, and if you have any pointers to additional facts, I'd love to see them.
"Nokia's net profit was euro948 million ($1.3 billion) in the last three months of 2009, up from euro576 million in the last quarter of 2008"
And Apple's profit from the iPhone alone (Q3) was $1.6bn - I think Q4 was more. (My guess over 2.3$bn!)
Nokia are not losing money, but their profits are declining as their share of the top-end cellphone market is falling rapidly.
Why oh why do so few folks here look at facts?
Back atcha!
The have lost the top end because their N-Series phones, which retail for $500+ unsubsidised are not being replaced by former Nokia customers.
C.
All very interesting points. But why were Android sales left out of the YOY analysis?
Why the hell would an OS be included in hardware sales?
The numbers are phenomenal now, because the iPhone is still a relatively new product and is still rolling out into new markets. And of course, with every new market they'll get new market share which makes their growth stats seem almost unbelievable. But sooner or later, they'll run out of new markets.
What would be interesting to look at is markets where they are already established but have an exlcusivity agreement like the US. What is their year-over-year growth here and how does it compare to other handset makers? It'll also be interesting to see how the iPhone stacks up as more decent competitors come on stream (like the Nexus One for example). Do they put a dent in the iPhone's market share growth?
The next few years are going to be interesting for sure. We'll know more as the markets the iPhone in is in become mature for it. Who knows, maybe by then Apple will start selling unlocked iPhones, which would be a whole new ballgame. Right now, this is the big differentiator and where I think Apple is going to hit a wall. For example, here in Canada, although all 3 major telcos sell the iphone, all three sell it at the same price, with 3 year contracts for monthly plans that are usually a lot higher than other phones. And this is a big deal as new telcos are coming on stream here in Canada and are set to lower prices dramatically. The choice really then for Canadians is between a $200 iPhone and an $80/month bill for limited voice and data on a 3 year contract (Rogers gives 400 daytime minutes, evenings at 9pm, 2 GB data, 100 text msgs for $80) or a $550 Blackberry (Bold 9700 unlocked on Wind) and unlmited voice, data, long distance and sms/mms for between $70-$80 per month with no contract, on one of the new telcos.
When the difference is that huge in monthly costs, there is no product that Apple can make that can overcome the reluctance to sign a 3 year deal that locks you into a situation where you are getting less every month and risk not being able to upgrade your phone and take advantage of new deals for 3 years. So in Canada anyway, I think we'll see a plateau here soon. Pretty much everyone that wants an iPhone is going to have one soon. The rest who don't want such expensive monthly bills will get something else (for example, the Nexus One coming soon to Wind) and go for a cheaper plan. An iPhone isn't all that useful if you don't have the data and voice package to actual use the device a lot.
The iPhone will plateau eventually, for the simple reason that their exclusivity deals with carriers simply limits their market potential. Not everybody wants to sign up with the Apple approved carrier because the iPhone usually comes with longer than average contracts and higher than averagre tariffs/rateplans.
The numbers are phenomenal now, because the iPhone is still a relatively new product and is still rolling out into new markets. And of course, with every new market they'll get new market share which makes their growth stats seem almost unbelievable. But sooner or later, they'll run out of new markets.
You make some good points, but I'm not sure Apple has to support CDMA right now, if at all in the US. They still have plenty of avenues to pursue. There is still T-Mobile in the US, the option of AT&T not requiring a data plan for those wanting more of an iPod Touch with a basic phone, and, of course, releasing a cheaper simpler device like they did with the iPod.
Then there are also scaling issues that may hold back expansion. There were several months last summer that the iPhone was in short supply. If they do release a CDMA-based device it might released at a different time than the GSM version.
All very interesting points. But why were Android sales left out of the YOY analysis?
Do you have YOY info for Android?
The best I could come up with quickly is http://gigaom.com/2009/11/22/admob-october/ which seems to analyze the period between April and October, 2009. Some interesting factoids:
# Worldwide requests from Android devices increased 5.8 times since April 2009 in the AdMob network.
# In the US, Android has 20 percent share of smartphone traffic versus 7 percent in April 2009.
I question the relevance of this data, and if you have any pointers to additional facts, I'd love to see them.
Android sales are left out because IDC hasn't begun to report it in their press releases. (It may be in their expensive reports but I'm not going to pay for their reports.) To get some idea, HTC sold 7.5m units in 2008, and 8.1m units in 2009, but I don't have a breakout of WinMo vs Android for HTC. Motorola is estimated to have sold 2.5m smartphones in 4Q09 compared to 1.6m in 4Q08, but these numbers include the Moto Q and Krave and other non-Android smartphones (Mot had zero Android in 4Q08).
The Admob data you're pointing to shows the market share of ads delivered over a particular phone model or OS. That data clearly shows that some smartphones disproportionately access the web and disproportionately display web-supplied ads. Android-based phones and iPhones (and maybe WebOS-based Palms) access web and ads way more than their number of units would imply. (This relates to the other discussion in this thread - is a phone considered a smartphone because it can run a web browser? Or is it a smartphone only if the phone is really used significantly to browse the web? Is that a valid distinction?)
One can infer growth in Android-based phones during the whole year from this Admob data with a boost around the time of Droid/Droid Eris, but that's about all . I don't think there is enough data to determine if there is any correlation between Admob data and units for Androids and iPhones.