I believe current skeptics will think much differently in 6-12 months when we'll understand more of how functional this iPad truly is. I predict it'll meet and/or surpass the functionality of most laptops within 12 months. Just wait. Though it's hard to see at this point in time, the iPad has HUGE potential.
I think it'll be a huge success for the tablet market and that there is HUGE potential for the device, but I don't see it meeting or surpassing the functionality of most laptops.
So far, the device is positioned only as an accessory device to a proper PC. It requires syncing to iTunes to get media and to back up. No connecting an iPhone or iPod to it to sync and save media, expect for maybe images. No option to use an external HDD for more storage. The apps are Photos and iPod, not iPhoto and iTunes.
All the parts are there so this could change quickly, and perhaps that is what you meant, but I have to consider that Apple may not want a $500 device cannibalizing their MacBook and MacBook Pro sales. I think it could be a trojan horse entry that would push more people into buying Macs, but they might not see it that way, at least not right away.
Every time when some analysts started bulling the target price on AAPL, you know it's about time to retreat. The next 52-week high maybe after 2011. AAPL would look more attractive when it dips to 2- digit range.
haha... that was a joke right? I doubt you will ever see 2 digits ever again short of nuclear war.
We've been through economic hell and haven't come back again. The result is declining P/E overall, which is a general measure of investor confidence in future growth in profits, which is hardly going to be bullish considering what we've been through. A couple of years ago the high P/E of the standard indexes had the chart watchers worried, as it always does. I believe AAPL touched 50 times earnings at one point, or very close, which is extremely bullish and probably unsustainable. The irony for AAPL is that they've been able to continue to grow earnings strongly even through the recession, which hasn't been reflected at all in the stock price. The result is a relatively bearish P/E which could be interpreted as a lack of investor confidence in Apple's ability to sustain their recent growth. I'd prefer to think otherwise, but probably at least in part because I've got quite a bit on the line. Time will tell, as it always does.
Please cut the politics -- they have no place in this discussion.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that outside of Apple and Google, there are very few companies with such large market capitalization as well as high P/Es. It's natural that things can't be so volatile and speculative as they get so big. As for me, with a large part of my net worth in Apple, I'm happy their P/E is declining while the E is steadily increasing; it makes my investment safer even if it isn't growing. I expect their P and their E to continue to increase over the long run, while their P/E should steadily decrease.
I agree. I don't see myself having a need to do a video conference using the iPad. Cameras and webcams in general are fairly useless to me. I'm not sure I have ever even used my webcam on my MBP.
You looking to get an iPad farily soon after its released or are you going to wait it out a bit?
Impatience usually trumps logic in these matters. But, (i) as a happy shareholder with lots of profits from AAPL's gains this past year, happy to give a little back to the company; (ii) with lots of Apple gift cards lying around (although not enough for the 64GB w/3G); (iii) with the hope that multitasking will result from a software fix in the future; and (iv) with the possibility that the kids are getting to a stage where this can serve as a substitute for a laptop (i.e., get the next gen when it comes out cheaper/faster/more functional/etc/etc next year)......
haha... that was a joke right? I doubt you will ever see 2 digits ever again short of nuclear war.
We can always hope.
Quote:
Originally Posted by delreyjones
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that outside of Apple and Google, there are very few companies with such large market capitalization as well as high P/Es. It's natural that things can't be so volatile and speculative as they get so big. As for me, with a large part of my net worth in Apple, I'm happy their P/E is declining while the E is steadily increasing; it makes my investment safer even if it isn't growing. I expect their P and their E to continue to increase over the long run, while their P/E should steadily decrease.
Apple certainly is a very large company but I don't see any direct connection between that fact and their potential for growth. Some say the rule of large numbers applies, but personally I think that's an over-simplification.
As an investor, you never want to see a declining P/E for a stock you own. That's the market saying that profit growth rates are on the decline, and growing profits is the name of the game. Lowered expectations are not really making your investment safer, only less valuable.
I was originally considering a MacBook Air for home and on the go use. Now I'll get an iPad for mobile use, and get a Mac mini for home use. Both will cost me less than the MacBook Air.
I may end up going the same way. I currently have a MacBook Pro at home and an iMac at work. I'm tired of messing around transferring files (Mobile Me is too small for all my audio and video), so I'm buying a Mini Server to store all my files. I will then be able to use my iMac and MacBook Pro on the same data files to avoid the logistics of keeping them synchronized.
I will be buying some iPads for work (for use in giving presentations at trade shows) and will try one at home. If Go To My PC works well enough on the iPad, I may not have much need for the MacBook Pro.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jameskatt2
What won't happen is the iPad cannibalizing Mac sales.
What he doesn't realize is that the iPad, iPhone, and iPod all support the sale of a Mac. They do not replace a Mac, they are complementary. If anything, they require the person to buy a Mac.
Thus the iPad would accelerate Mac sales.
For every iPad sold, there is going to be an increase in Mac sales.
That's ultimately going to be true. In the short run, people may still run the iPad via iTunes from their Windows PC (assuming that this continues to work). Ultimately, it will help to move them to Macs, but that's a slow process.
It is also true that SOME people may buy the iPad INSTEAD of a Mac. It would not work as well nor be as useful, but it might suit the needs of some users, so there's a chance of SOME lost sales, but I doubt if it will be significant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
I agree about multitasking. That would be a deal-breaking attribute for me.
Flash, webcam, etc are somewhat unimportant to me.
I've been asking for weeks and no one has explained WHAT multitasking you need. You can listen to music while you read a book. You can check your email while you browse the web. You can have push notifications tell you if you've received a text message while you're playing a game. Do you really expect to do more than that SIMULTANEOUSLY? Can you play a game at the same time as you browse the web? Can you read a book at the same time as you play a game? Keep in mind that you're not going to do heavy number crunching on this, so almost everything you do will be nearly instantaneous and task switching is also almost immediate.
I've been asking for weeks and no one has explained WHAT multitasking you need. You can listen to music while you read a book. You can check your email while you browse the web. You can have push notifications tell you if you've received a text message while you're playing a game. Do you really expect to do more than that SIMULTANEOUSLY? Can you play a game at the same time as you browse the web? Can you read a book at the same time as you play a game? Keep in mind that you're not going to do heavy number crunching on this, so almost everything you do will be nearly instantaneous and task switching is also almost immediate.
Perhaps multitasking is not even the right word here, so let me explain: I want to have any programs of my choice (from among what the device allows me to have) running simultaneously, so that I am simply able to toggle back-and-forth between, without, say, being in Program A, then having to hit the home button, get to the appropriate 'home' screen, open Program B to what I want to do with it, then hit the home button again and go back to the previous home screen to pull up program A. Just like you can do on any regular OS.
Is that -- and the convenience of that -- very difficult to comprehend?
The Price/Earning (P/E) ratio went from 26 to 19.5 after last quarter. At 26, Apple was getting into speculative bubble territory but earning is so good the ratio went back down to fair. Let?s not forget that stock just double in 2009, but the increase in earning makes up for it.
Currently, in my opinion, the price is fair if Apple can sustain the 2009 earning in 2010. It all depends if earning increase in 2010, then its ?fair? at 200$. At $280, Apple will need to beat its 2009 earning to come back to a P/E < 20. At 100$, Apple was a run to the store and buy deal. Keep in mind a P/E > 20 means the company needs to deliver a substantial growth or its nothing but a dangerous speculative bubble.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that outside of Apple and Google, there are very few companies with such large market capitalization as well as high P/Es. It's natural that things can't be so volatile and speculative as they get so big. As for me, with a large part of my net worth in Apple, I'm happy their P/E is declining while the E is steadily increasing; it makes my investment safer even if it isn't growing. I expect their P and their E to continue to increase over the long run, while their P/E should steadily decrease.
What's interesting is that if Apple does get to $280, it will have a market cap that's $9 billion more than Microsoft is today.
Here are some comparison P/Es and Apple's isn't so bad:
Apple: 19:58
Microsoft: 15.43
Amazon: 58.64
Adobe: 43.47
Dell: 18.72
Google: 26.21
HP: 15.46
IBM: 12.39
Intel: 26.64
SanDisk: 15.06
Comcast: 12.18
AT&T: 11.86
Verizon: 22.54
Exxon: 16.34
Boeing: 32.48
Wal-Mart: 15.32
UPS: 26.17
Starbucks: 30.01
Another way of looking at Apple's 19.58 P/E is to look at the average P/E since 1988 of the S&P 500. That average comes to 24.72.
At $280 per share (today), the P/E of Apple would be 27.36 or still about 2 points lower than the S&P 500 average for the past 5 years.
It is also true that SOME people may buy the iPad INSTEAD of a Mac. It would not work as well nor be as useful, but it might suit the needs of some users, so there's a chance of SOME lost sales, but I doubt if it will be significant.
In my case, I already have a desktop Mac, a PowerBook and an iPhone. The PowerBook is on lifesupport right now, and I use it every day at work and at home. At work for 1) keynote presentations 2) simple spreadsheets and 3) iTunes playback. At home I use the laptop mainly for web surfing and presentation design. It needs to be replaced, but I am now considering an iPad.
So, for me, it is possible that the iPad will replace my need for a new laptop. Apple would get $6-$700 from me instead of $1-$2,000.
I am waiting to see how the pad works for Keynote (is there a way to plug it in while driving presentations? and how easy is it to design new presentation material) before I make any decisions. I know I would be giving up a great deal of processing power here, but I use the desktop at home for all my photo editing and video work.
I've been asking for weeks and no one has explained WHAT multitasking you need. You can listen to music while you read a book. You can check your email while you browse the web. You can have push notifications tell you if you've received a text message while you're playing a game. Do you really expect to do more than that SIMULTANEOUSLY? Can you play a game at the same time as you browse the web? Can you read a book at the same time as you play a game? Keep in mind that you're not going to do heavy number crunching on this, so almost everything you do will be nearly instantaneous and task switching is also almost immediate.
As someone who has jailbroken my iPhone in part so that I could enable multitasking, let me answer this.
You've narrowly defined scenarios which can be done without multitasking. Try changing them:
"You can have push notifications tell you if you've received a text message while you're playing a game."
But you can't pause the game and respond to the text. Nor can you be one the phone while playing a game.
"You can listen to music while you read a book."
Unless that music is coming from a 3rd party app, like a radio based app.
Can you play a game at the same time as you browse the web?
Hell yes you can. You're in the middle of a game and want to search for a cheat code, tip or trick, it's nice to be able to do it with the device as opposed to going over to another computer to look it up.
And with the iPad, there will be numerous situations where you'll want to see both apps at the same time. Maybe you're composing a message but you want to reference something else you want to be able to see. The space limitations on the iPhone prevent this, but it could otherwise be done on the iPad if it wasn't for the lack of multitasking.
Another huge thing is to have apps run in the background...doing things while you're doing something else. Music apps are an obvious example of this, but there are apps that transfer files, like FTP apps, or media download apps. You can sit there and watch the file download over a long period of time, or you could have it be done in the background while you're doing anything else you want to do.
I have an RSS reader. In the background, it can download all of my feeds and cache them so I can read them when I have no connectivity. I don't want push notifications for each news item, I just want to be able to read them whenever I want without having to actively watch them download or be somewhere where I have connectivity.
Multitasking on a jailbroken iPhone works flawlessly for me and others. It's a shame that it's not enabled in the OS for 3rd party apps yet.
haha... that was a joke right? I doubt you will ever see 2 digits ever again short of nuclear war.
Anything is possible in a world economy where almost every day there is another country, or company that is "discovered" to be in such dire straights they have to be rescued, usually at the expense of the taxpayer ..... and save your rants against the left or right because we are ALL to blame for this mess ... by ignoring the writing on the wall and believing it was our right to live beyond our means based solely on where we were lucky enough to be born.
The volatility in the stock market, I think, just reflects how bad the system is broke and unfortunately Apple, and a lot of other good companies, are only being taken along for the ride. IMHO, caution is the word of the day ... when participating in the stock market now.
Perhaps multitasking is not even the right word here, so let me explain: I want to have any programs of my choice (from among what the device allows me to have) running simultaneously, so that I am simply able to toggle back-and-forth between, without, say, being in Program A, then having to hit the home button, get to the appropriate 'home' screen, open Program B to what I want to do with it, then hit the home button again and go back to the previous home screen to pull up program A. Just like you can do on any regular OS.
Is that -- and the convenience of that -- very difficult to comprehend?
So you're talking about saving 1/20 second. Instead of toggling to another app, you hit the home button and THEN the other app. Given the overhead that multitasking and having multiple apps open at the same time, that would probably take MORE time than the current method.
That's a trivial difference and clearly doesn't justify the extra overhead and RAM required.
Quote:
Originally Posted by macslut
"You can have push notifications tell you if you've received a text message while you're playing a game."
But you can't pause the game and respond to the text. Nor can you be one the phone while playing a game.
You are incorrect - as usual in your incessant Apple-bashing.
For example, Klondike Forever does exactly what you're suggesting on my iPhone. If your choice of games doesn't allow you to pause and resume, that's bad programming, not any limitation in the device.
Quote:
Originally Posted by macslut
"You can listen to music while you read a book."
Unless that music is coming from a 3rd party app, like a radio based app.
Do you know that? I didn't think so.
However, the device has the ability to listen to music while reading a book as supplied by Apple. If you choose not to use the method provided, that's your choice - so you will be responsible for the limitations that YOU create.
Quote:
Originally Posted by macslut
Can you play a game at the same time as you browse the web?
Hell yes you can. You're in the middle of a game and want to search for a cheat code, tip or trick, it's nice to be able to do it with the device as opposed to going over to another computer to look it up.
That's not at the same time. First, you're playing the game. Then you stop playing the game and go to the web. After you have the information, you come back to the game.
The iPhone readily handles that (see above), at least with properly written apps. I can leave Klondike Forever any time I wish and come back and the game is exactly where I left it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by macslut
And with the iPad, there will be numerous situations where you'll want to see both apps at the same time. Maybe you're composing a message but you want to reference something else you want to be able to see. The space limitations on the iPhone prevent this, but it could otherwise be done on the iPad if it wasn't for the lack of multitasking.
Where in the world do you dream up this stuff? There's nothing stopping you from having an email message open, switch to the web, and then switch back. That doesn't require multitasking and works just fine on the iPhone.
Quote:
Originally Posted by macslut
Another huge thing is to have apps run in the background...doing things while you're doing something else. Music apps are an obvious example of this, but there are apps that transfer files, like FTP apps, or media download apps. You can sit there and watch the file download over a long period of time, or you could have it be done in the background while you're doing anything else you want to do.
FTP isn't going to be relevant on the iPhone. If you're thinking FTP, get a laptop. As for the rest, I can download my mail and download app upgrades while doing something else already. Why would you think that you couldn't do it with the iPad? I guess the problem is that you never bothered finding out what was possible and what wasn't before you started on your mindless attacks.
See? No one has yet pointed out any real reasons why they NEED multitasking. The iPhone (and presumably the iPad) can handle all of those things just fine.
So you're talking about saving 1/20 second. Instead of toggling to another app, you hit the home button and THEN the other app. Given the overhead that multitasking and having multiple apps open at the same time, that would probably take MORE time than the current method.
I see what you're saying and I agree. Most people are just parrotting they want multitasking without thinking it through. The most common apps mentioned are Pandora and Google Voice. Music streaming and VoIP are good points for wanting multitasking but I have yet to read a reply, besides my own, that details options of how this could work on an iPhone without affecting the usability of the device.
You can't just have any and every app running in the background simply because you opened at some point. Resources are limited and the UX will degrade to a point of being unusable. I have been running a jailbroken iPhone with multitasking turned on since it was released. Despite what macslut states opening multiple apps will slow down your system and eat through your battery. Plus you can't expect the average customer to use a app manager to shut down apps when it starts to degrade.
The way I see as best is to make this an API in v4.0 that lets the developers decide with of their apps and which of the functions in their apps will be able to run the background. The entire time following Apple's guidelines for resource usage.
Then you have a Settings option (similar to Push Notifications) that lets the user decide to enable this function and then choose which applicable apps to enable for the background. Based on your particular model the system will only let you choose x-many.
To switch between apps there could be multiple taps to the Home Button, or tapping the Menu Bar to have a robust Notifications and background apps status page appear, or flicking a Home screen up to reveal a Notifications and background apps page. Whateve they do it needs to be controlled, the short sided option other smartphones have that only a few geeks think should be ideal for everyone.
The Price/Earning (P/E) ratio went from 26 to 19.5 after last quarter. At 26, Apple was getting into speculative bubble territory but earning is so good the ratio went back down to fair. Let?s not forget that stock just double in 2009, but the increase in earning makes up for it.
Currently, in my opinion, the price is fair if Apple can sustain the 2009 earning in 2010. It all depends if earning increase in 2010, then its ?fair? at 200$. At $280, Apple will need to beat its 2009 earning to come back to a P/E < 20. At 100$, Apple was a run to the store and buy deal. Keep in mind a P/E > 20 means the company needs to deliver a substantial growth or its nothing but a dangerous speculative bubble.
If you look at the last 26 months, which goes back to the last peak, AAPL has gone exactly nowhere. The stock took a dive during 2009 along with the rest of the market, but unlike the rest of the market, their earnings continued to grow, so even after it recovered from the loss, the resulting P/E was much lower. Last quarter is really tricky because Apple started reporting their income in a substantially different way, which deflated the P/E even further. Either way, a P/E for AAPL at 26 is hardly in speculative bubble territory since throughout the period of growth P/E was mostly over 30 and sometimes as high as 50.
Comments
I believe current skeptics will think much differently in 6-12 months when we'll understand more of how functional this iPad truly is. I predict it'll meet and/or surpass the functionality of most laptops within 12 months. Just wait. Though it's hard to see at this point in time, the iPad has HUGE potential.
I think it'll be a huge success for the tablet market and that there is HUGE potential for the device, but I don't see it meeting or surpassing the functionality of most laptops.
So far, the device is positioned only as an accessory device to a proper PC. It requires syncing to iTunes to get media and to back up. No connecting an iPhone or iPod to it to sync and save media, expect for maybe images. No option to use an external HDD for more storage. The apps are Photos and iPod, not iPhoto and iTunes.
All the parts are there so this could change quickly, and perhaps that is what you meant, but I have to consider that Apple may not want a $500 device cannibalizing their MacBook and MacBook Pro sales. I think it could be a trojan horse entry that would push more people into buying Macs, but they might not see it that way, at least not right away.
Every time when some analysts started bulling the target price on AAPL, you know it's about time to retreat. The next 52-week high maybe after 2011. AAPL would look more attractive when it dips to 2- digit range.
haha... that was a joke right? I doubt you will ever see 2 digits ever again short of nuclear war.
We've been through economic hell and haven't come back again. The result is declining P/E overall, which is a general measure of investor confidence in future growth in profits, which is hardly going to be bullish considering what we've been through. A couple of years ago the high P/E of the standard indexes had the chart watchers worried, as it always does. I believe AAPL touched 50 times earnings at one point, or very close, which is extremely bullish and probably unsustainable. The irony for AAPL is that they've been able to continue to grow earnings strongly even through the recession, which hasn't been reflected at all in the stock price. The result is a relatively bearish P/E which could be interpreted as a lack of investor confidence in Apple's ability to sustain their recent growth. I'd prefer to think otherwise, but probably at least in part because I've got quite a bit on the line. Time will tell, as it always does.
Please cut the politics -- they have no place in this discussion.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that outside of Apple and Google, there are very few companies with such large market capitalization as well as high P/Es. It's natural that things can't be so volatile and speculative as they get so big. As for me, with a large part of my net worth in Apple, I'm happy their P/E is declining while the E is steadily increasing; it makes my investment safer even if it isn't growing. I expect their P and their E to continue to increase over the long run, while their P/E should steadily decrease.
I agree. I don't see myself having a need to do a video conference using the iPad. Cameras and webcams in general are fairly useless to me. I'm not sure I have ever even used my webcam on my MBP.
You looking to get an iPad farily soon after its released or are you going to wait it out a bit?
Impatience usually trumps logic in these matters. But, (i) as a happy shareholder with lots of profits from AAPL's gains this past year, happy to give a little back to the company; (ii) with lots of Apple gift cards lying around (although not enough for the 64GB w/3G); (iii) with the hope that multitasking will result from a software fix in the future; and (iv) with the possibility that the kids are getting to a stage where this can serve as a substitute for a laptop (i.e., get the next gen when it comes out cheaper/faster/more functional/etc/etc next year)......
....I think I will buy two!
haha... that was a joke right? I doubt you will ever see 2 digits ever again short of nuclear war.
We can always hope.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that outside of Apple and Google, there are very few companies with such large market capitalization as well as high P/Es. It's natural that things can't be so volatile and speculative as they get so big. As for me, with a large part of my net worth in Apple, I'm happy their P/E is declining while the E is steadily increasing; it makes my investment safer even if it isn't growing. I expect their P and their E to continue to increase over the long run, while their P/E should steadily decrease.
Apple certainly is a very large company but I don't see any direct connection between that fact and their potential for growth. Some say the rule of large numbers applies, but personally I think that's an over-simplification.
As an investor, you never want to see a declining P/E for a stock you own. That's the market saying that profit growth rates are on the decline, and growing profits is the name of the game. Lowered expectations are not really making your investment safer, only less valuable.
I was originally considering a MacBook Air for home and on the go use. Now I'll get an iPad for mobile use, and get a Mac mini for home use. Both will cost me less than the MacBook Air.
I may end up going the same way. I currently have a MacBook Pro at home and an iMac at work. I'm tired of messing around transferring files (Mobile Me is too small for all my audio and video), so I'm buying a Mini Server to store all my files. I will then be able to use my iMac and MacBook Pro on the same data files to avoid the logistics of keeping them synchronized.
I will be buying some iPads for work (for use in giving presentations at trade shows) and will try one at home. If Go To My PC works well enough on the iPad, I may not have much need for the MacBook Pro.
What won't happen is the iPad cannibalizing Mac sales.
What he doesn't realize is that the iPad, iPhone, and iPod all support the sale of a Mac. They do not replace a Mac, they are complementary. If anything, they require the person to buy a Mac.
Thus the iPad would accelerate Mac sales.
For every iPad sold, there is going to be an increase in Mac sales.
That's ultimately going to be true. In the short run, people may still run the iPad via iTunes from their Windows PC (assuming that this continues to work). Ultimately, it will help to move them to Macs, but that's a slow process.
It is also true that SOME people may buy the iPad INSTEAD of a Mac. It would not work as well nor be as useful, but it might suit the needs of some users, so there's a chance of SOME lost sales, but I doubt if it will be significant.
I agree about multitasking. That would be a deal-breaking attribute for me.
Flash, webcam, etc are somewhat unimportant to me.
I've been asking for weeks and no one has explained WHAT multitasking you need. You can listen to music while you read a book. You can check your email while you browse the web. You can have push notifications tell you if you've received a text message while you're playing a game. Do you really expect to do more than that SIMULTANEOUSLY? Can you play a game at the same time as you browse the web? Can you read a book at the same time as you play a game? Keep in mind that you're not going to do heavy number crunching on this, so almost everything you do will be nearly instantaneous and task switching is also almost immediate.
Those that took the advice are still waiting. I think most of us could have predicted at least as well.
I think most of us could have predicted at least as well.
Then you should do so and put your money where your mouth is (or sell your services by getting others to put their money where your mouth is)!
Simple really, no?
I've been asking for weeks and no one has explained WHAT multitasking you need. You can listen to music while you read a book. You can check your email while you browse the web. You can have push notifications tell you if you've received a text message while you're playing a game. Do you really expect to do more than that SIMULTANEOUSLY? Can you play a game at the same time as you browse the web? Can you read a book at the same time as you play a game? Keep in mind that you're not going to do heavy number crunching on this, so almost everything you do will be nearly instantaneous and task switching is also almost immediate.
Perhaps multitasking is not even the right word here, so let me explain: I want to have any programs of my choice (from among what the device allows me to have) running simultaneously, so that I am simply able to toggle back-and-forth between, without, say, being in Program A, then having to hit the home button, get to the appropriate 'home' screen, open Program B to what I want to do with it, then hit the home button again and go back to the previous home screen to pull up program A. Just like you can do on any regular OS.
Is that -- and the convenience of that -- very difficult to comprehend?
Currently, in my opinion, the price is fair if Apple can sustain the 2009 earning in 2010. It all depends if earning increase in 2010, then its ?fair? at 200$. At $280, Apple will need to beat its 2009 earning to come back to a P/E < 20. At 100$, Apple was a run to the store and buy deal. Keep in mind a P/E > 20 means the company needs to deliver a substantial growth or its nothing but a dangerous speculative bubble.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that outside of Apple and Google, there are very few companies with such large market capitalization as well as high P/Es. It's natural that things can't be so volatile and speculative as they get so big. As for me, with a large part of my net worth in Apple, I'm happy their P/E is declining while the E is steadily increasing; it makes my investment safer even if it isn't growing. I expect their P and their E to continue to increase over the long run, while their P/E should steadily decrease.
What's interesting is that if Apple does get to $280, it will have a market cap that's $9 billion more than Microsoft is today.
Here are some comparison P/Es and Apple's isn't so bad:
Apple: 19:58
Microsoft: 15.43
Amazon: 58.64
Adobe: 43.47
Dell: 18.72
Google: 26.21
HP: 15.46
IBM: 12.39
Intel: 26.64
SanDisk: 15.06
Comcast: 12.18
AT&T: 11.86
Verizon: 22.54
Exxon: 16.34
Boeing: 32.48
Wal-Mart: 15.32
UPS: 26.17
Starbucks: 30.01
Another way of looking at Apple's 19.58 P/E is to look at the average P/E since 1988 of the S&P 500. That average comes to 24.72.
At $280 per share (today), the P/E of Apple would be 27.36 or still about 2 points lower than the S&P 500 average for the past 5 years.
It is also true that SOME people may buy the iPad INSTEAD of a Mac. It would not work as well nor be as useful, but it might suit the needs of some users, so there's a chance of SOME lost sales, but I doubt if it will be significant.
In my case, I already have a desktop Mac, a PowerBook and an iPhone. The PowerBook is on lifesupport right now, and I use it every day at work and at home. At work for 1) keynote presentations 2) simple spreadsheets and 3) iTunes playback. At home I use the laptop mainly for web surfing and presentation design. It needs to be replaced, but I am now considering an iPad.
So, for me, it is possible that the iPad will replace my need for a new laptop. Apple would get $6-$700 from me instead of $1-$2,000.
I am waiting to see how the pad works for Keynote (is there a way to plug it in while driving presentations? and how easy is it to design new presentation material) before I make any decisions. I know I would be giving up a great deal of processing power here, but I use the desktop at home for all my photo editing and video work.
For every iPad sold, there is going to be an increase in Mac sales.
I don't think so as a lot of us already own a mac.
I've been asking for weeks and no one has explained WHAT multitasking you need. You can listen to music while you read a book. You can check your email while you browse the web. You can have push notifications tell you if you've received a text message while you're playing a game. Do you really expect to do more than that SIMULTANEOUSLY? Can you play a game at the same time as you browse the web? Can you read a book at the same time as you play a game? Keep in mind that you're not going to do heavy number crunching on this, so almost everything you do will be nearly instantaneous and task switching is also almost immediate.
As someone who has jailbroken my iPhone in part so that I could enable multitasking, let me answer this.
You've narrowly defined scenarios which can be done without multitasking. Try changing them:
"You can have push notifications tell you if you've received a text message while you're playing a game."
But you can't pause the game and respond to the text. Nor can you be one the phone while playing a game.
"You can listen to music while you read a book."
Unless that music is coming from a 3rd party app, like a radio based app.
Can you play a game at the same time as you browse the web?
Hell yes you can. You're in the middle of a game and want to search for a cheat code, tip or trick, it's nice to be able to do it with the device as opposed to going over to another computer to look it up.
And with the iPad, there will be numerous situations where you'll want to see both apps at the same time. Maybe you're composing a message but you want to reference something else you want to be able to see. The space limitations on the iPhone prevent this, but it could otherwise be done on the iPad if it wasn't for the lack of multitasking.
Another huge thing is to have apps run in the background...doing things while you're doing something else. Music apps are an obvious example of this, but there are apps that transfer files, like FTP apps, or media download apps. You can sit there and watch the file download over a long period of time, or you could have it be done in the background while you're doing anything else you want to do.
I have an RSS reader. In the background, it can download all of my feeds and cache them so I can read them when I have no connectivity. I don't want push notifications for each news item, I just want to be able to read them whenever I want without having to actively watch them download or be somewhere where I have connectivity.
Multitasking on a jailbroken iPhone works flawlessly for me and others. It's a shame that it's not enabled in the OS for 3rd party apps yet.
haha... that was a joke right? I doubt you will ever see 2 digits ever again short of nuclear war.
Anything is possible in a world economy where almost every day there is another country, or company that is "discovered" to be in such dire straights they have to be rescued, usually at the expense of the taxpayer ..... and save your rants against the left or right because we are ALL to blame for this mess ... by ignoring the writing on the wall and believing it was our right to live beyond our means based solely on where we were lucky enough to be born.
The volatility in the stock market, I think, just reflects how bad the system is broke and unfortunately Apple, and a lot of other good companies, are only being taken along for the ride. IMHO, caution is the word of the day ... when participating in the stock market now.
Perhaps multitasking is not even the right word here, so let me explain: I want to have any programs of my choice (from among what the device allows me to have) running simultaneously, so that I am simply able to toggle back-and-forth between, without, say, being in Program A, then having to hit the home button, get to the appropriate 'home' screen, open Program B to what I want to do with it, then hit the home button again and go back to the previous home screen to pull up program A. Just like you can do on any regular OS.
Is that -- and the convenience of that -- very difficult to comprehend?
So you're talking about saving 1/20 second. Instead of toggling to another app, you hit the home button and THEN the other app. Given the overhead that multitasking and having multiple apps open at the same time, that would probably take MORE time than the current method.
That's a trivial difference and clearly doesn't justify the extra overhead and RAM required.
"You can have push notifications tell you if you've received a text message while you're playing a game."
But you can't pause the game and respond to the text. Nor can you be one the phone while playing a game.
You are incorrect - as usual in your incessant Apple-bashing.
For example, Klondike Forever does exactly what you're suggesting on my iPhone. If your choice of games doesn't allow you to pause and resume, that's bad programming, not any limitation in the device.
"You can listen to music while you read a book."
Unless that music is coming from a 3rd party app, like a radio based app.
Do you know that? I didn't think so.
However, the device has the ability to listen to music while reading a book as supplied by Apple. If you choose not to use the method provided, that's your choice - so you will be responsible for the limitations that YOU create.
Can you play a game at the same time as you browse the web?
Hell yes you can. You're in the middle of a game and want to search for a cheat code, tip or trick, it's nice to be able to do it with the device as opposed to going over to another computer to look it up.
That's not at the same time. First, you're playing the game. Then you stop playing the game and go to the web. After you have the information, you come back to the game.
The iPhone readily handles that (see above), at least with properly written apps. I can leave Klondike Forever any time I wish and come back and the game is exactly where I left it.
And with the iPad, there will be numerous situations where you'll want to see both apps at the same time. Maybe you're composing a message but you want to reference something else you want to be able to see. The space limitations on the iPhone prevent this, but it could otherwise be done on the iPad if it wasn't for the lack of multitasking.
Where in the world do you dream up this stuff? There's nothing stopping you from having an email message open, switch to the web, and then switch back. That doesn't require multitasking and works just fine on the iPhone.
Another huge thing is to have apps run in the background...doing things while you're doing something else. Music apps are an obvious example of this, but there are apps that transfer files, like FTP apps, or media download apps. You can sit there and watch the file download over a long period of time, or you could have it be done in the background while you're doing anything else you want to do.
FTP isn't going to be relevant on the iPhone. If you're thinking FTP, get a laptop. As for the rest, I can download my mail and download app upgrades while doing something else already. Why would you think that you couldn't do it with the iPad? I guess the problem is that you never bothered finding out what was possible and what wasn't before you started on your mindless attacks.
See? No one has yet pointed out any real reasons why they NEED multitasking. The iPhone (and presumably the iPad) can handle all of those things just fine.
So you're talking about saving 1/20 second. Instead of toggling to another app, you hit the home button and THEN the other app. Given the overhead that multitasking and having multiple apps open at the same time, that would probably take MORE time than the current method.
I see what you're saying and I agree. Most people are just parrotting they want multitasking without thinking it through. The most common apps mentioned are Pandora and Google Voice. Music streaming and VoIP are good points for wanting multitasking but I have yet to read a reply, besides my own, that details options of how this could work on an iPhone without affecting the usability of the device.
You can't just have any and every app running in the background simply because you opened at some point. Resources are limited and the UX will degrade to a point of being unusable. I have been running a jailbroken iPhone with multitasking turned on since it was released. Despite what macslut states opening multiple apps will slow down your system and eat through your battery. Plus you can't expect the average customer to use a app manager to shut down apps when it starts to degrade.
The way I see as best is to make this an API in v4.0 that lets the developers decide with of their apps and which of the functions in their apps will be able to run the background. The entire time following Apple's guidelines for resource usage.
Then you have a Settings option (similar to Push Notifications) that lets the user decide to enable this function and then choose which applicable apps to enable for the background. Based on your particular model the system will only let you choose x-many.
To switch between apps there could be multiple taps to the Home Button, or tapping the Menu Bar to have a robust Notifications and background apps status page appear, or flicking a Home screen up to reveal a Notifications and background apps page. Whateve they do it needs to be controlled, the short sided option other smartphones have that only a few geeks think should be ideal for everyone.
The Price/Earning (P/E) ratio went from 26 to 19.5 after last quarter. At 26, Apple was getting into speculative bubble territory but earning is so good the ratio went back down to fair. Let?s not forget that stock just double in 2009, but the increase in earning makes up for it.
Currently, in my opinion, the price is fair if Apple can sustain the 2009 earning in 2010. It all depends if earning increase in 2010, then its ?fair? at 200$. At $280, Apple will need to beat its 2009 earning to come back to a P/E < 20. At 100$, Apple was a run to the store and buy deal. Keep in mind a P/E > 20 means the company needs to deliver a substantial growth or its nothing but a dangerous speculative bubble.
If you look at the last 26 months, which goes back to the last peak, AAPL has gone exactly nowhere. The stock took a dive during 2009 along with the rest of the market, but unlike the rest of the market, their earnings continued to grow, so even after it recovered from the loss, the resulting P/E was much lower. Last quarter is really tricky because Apple started reporting their income in a substantially different way, which deflated the P/E even further. Either way, a P/E for AAPL at 26 is hardly in speculative bubble territory since throughout the period of growth P/E was mostly over 30 and sometimes as high as 50.