Is that a typo or are you with jimmx? There is evidence to suggest this will be extremely popular, at least in some fields and in some countries. I was going by US only sales, but if they sell to multiple countries at once then 3M in 3 days could happen. But isn't their estimate 4M in the first year?
The tech-pundits and I believe an anal-cyst or 2 have mentioned that number. Some bozo investment firm was quoted at 4-10 million... which is a pathetic guestimate.
Actually, US only sales could be 4 mil... plus 6 mil. worldwide. There are just so many people out there that have never even owned a computer that just want to get on the internet with something larger than a phone, and are deathly scared of a "computer". Really. I have 3 pegged for my immediate family for just that reason.
I saw your other post Soli regarding syncing and backing up the iPad. I doubt that this is going to be a problem in the near future, what with MobileMe and other cloud accounts.
Also, I'll put money that there is some way that Apple will make that Card reader and USB adapter useful for just more than getting at what's on there already (photos).
I saw your other post Soli regarding syncing and backing up the iPad. I doubt that this is going to be a problem in the near future, what with MobileMe and other cloud accounts.
Also, I'll put money that there is some way that Apple will make that Card reader and USB adapter useful for just more than getting at what's on there already (photos).
That would still the problem of allowing for a local external HDD for Time Machine backup. MM won't cut it. Too slow and to much data for the foreseeable future.
It also leaves the problem with making the iPad's iPod app your iTunes app. In other words, the app you use to organize and syn your music to your iPhone or iPod.
Without these two things specifically being allowed I can't see it being a true competitor to a low cost PC. I'm sure it will compete well with netbooks, but netbooks aren't usually a person's only PC. In the Apple world, I think it needs those things to be a true competitor.
I would have thought that too ? but did you see this Electronista article. In Norway, apparently the only place where pre-orders of the iPad were allowed, they had to shut down pre-orders due to ?crazy? (i.e. overwhelming) response. IFF this is indicative or customer reception overall, then 1M in first 3 days might be possible. (Note the big ?if?)
I really have a feeling that when people get a chance to actually try one out in an Apple store, they will go crazy over them. If the appropriate descriptor here is ?intimate? then that can only be experienced in order to be? well ? experienced.
I would have thought that too ? but did you see this Electronista article. In Norway, apparently the only place where pre-orders of the iPad were allowed, they had to shut down pre-orders due to ?crazy? (i.e. overwhelming) response. IFF this is indicative or customer reception overall, then 1M in first 3 days might be possible. (Note the big ?if?)
I had forgotten about Norway and the likelihood it would be sold outside the US from day one. My estimate was US-centric, but the US is less than half of Apple's revenue with Europe's growth likely going to beat the US in a few quarters.
I want one but still debating getting one at launch or waiting for the next gen. I guess that depends on if I'm actually going to work on apps for sale or just tinker with the platform...in which case the simulator will be fine for now.
My impression is that there ain't much to tinker with.
First of all, these numbers are not about new developers but new applications.
What is really interesting and what Flurry doesn't tell, is how many of these projects are existing iPhone developers rewriting their applications because they cannot support well two different devices at the same time.
Now, is this a sign of a potential platform fragmentation issue?
Let's go back to your comment "Who else offers a solution for wireless backups? Because obviously I haven't done my homework." You didn't append "with an integrated router." That is a nice aspect of the Time Capsule and it serves its purpose well, albeit in a very limited scope, but it does not address the growing need for redundant home backups.
Plus, the Time Capsule is a single drive. The only way you have redundancy is if your files are all kept on your Macs first and foremost. RAIDed home servers allow you to have a centralized repository for your media for all machines. Most home servers have multiple drives. The one you claim is $699 has 4 bays, though it's odd that you ignore HP's cheapest option for under $400.
We haven't even got into the benefits of Windows Home Server. Possibly the most thought out version of Windows MS has ever made.
I didn't "append 'with an integrated router'" because it's apparent that TC is a router and not a server. Two categorically different devices with some overlapping in functionality, yes, but I was comparing apples to apples not to oranges.
First of all, these numbers are not about new developers but new applications.
What is really interesting and what Flurry doesn't tell, is how many of these projects are existing iPhone developers rewriting their applications because they cannot support well two different devices at the same time.
Now, is this a sign of a potential platform fragmentation issue?
You obviously don't know what you're talking about.
If you knew anything about Xcode or the MVC design pattern, you'd know that in most cases code written for one device can rather easily be modified for the other, unless there are intrinsic issues with screen resolution in which the app just wouldn't make sense running on the other screen size.
This is NOT fragmentation. This is yet further integration of the iPad with essentially the same OS X code base that drives the Mac, iPhone, and iPod Touch, which is sheer genius--especially in relation to Android's veritable fragmentation across the myriad devices which "support" it.
My impression is that there ain't much to tinker with.
Yes, because Apple doesn't have a language (ObjC), a dev environment (XCode) or a SDK for either the iPhone or iPad. Code simply flows from my brain directly into the iPhone as a finished product.
Damn those Apple engineers are good.
Being dismissive is one thing. Being stupidly dismissive entirely another.
...it does not address the growing need for redundant home backups.
Plus, the Time Capsule is a single drive. The only way you have redundancy is if your files are all kept on your Macs first and foremost. RAIDed home servers allow you to have a centralized repository for your media for all machines. Most home servers have multiple drives. The one you claim is $699 has 4 bays, though it's odd that you ignore HP's cheapest option for under $400.
We haven't even got into the benefits of Windows Home Server. Possibly the most thought out version of Windows MS has ever made.
If you want drive redundancy, plug in a drobo. A home server is an ambiguous offering for a household with two laptops, as the information is inaccessible from the road. If you have a desktop already, why not have that sharing files?
If you knew anything about Xcode or the MVC design pattern, you'd know that in most cases code written for one device can rather easily be modified for the other, unless there are intrinsic issues with screen resolution in which the app just wouldn't make sense running on the other screen size.
MVC pattern doesnt automatically mean design of a particular app is good. It is more about how well developer understands (predicts?) usage scenarios and how they differ on particular devices.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DanielSW
This is NOT fragmentation. This is yet further integration of the iPad with essentially the same OS X code base that drives the Mac, iPhone, and iPod Touch, which is sheer genius--especially in relation to Android's veritable fragmentation across the myriad devices which "support" it.
Alright fragmentation is a wrong word at least for now, since we assume iPad and iPhone will run exactly the same OS version (that is, 3.2 or 4.0 will be released for both). Still, how many of the existing developers will decide to produce a separate app rather than "expand" current one, is interesting.
One more thing - this is statistics for January. I can hardly imagine someone starting a real project without knowing much about the environment/device it will run on. Now, Apple may have shared some info with some of the best developers in advance, and I doubt they shared it with completely new people.
If you want drive redundancy, plug in a drobo. A home server is an ambiguous offering for a household with two laptops, as the information is inaccessible from the road. If you have a desktop already, why not have that sharing files?
1) Homes are growing to more than 2 computers, hence my desire to see a proper home server offering from Apple.
2) Why exactly is "information inaccessible from the road", IMO. I use WHS to access files remotely all the time. They give you a domain name so you don't have to remember some esoteric IP address that could keep changing. Sharing files from a desktop means that I'd have to by a domain, and host it on my own machine. Not exactly a plug-in-play operation.
3) Not a fan of Drobo for many reasons. Why would you say that is the only option over any other home server? Why do you think Apple shouldn't offer a home server solution?
If you want drive redundancy, plug in a drobo. A home server is an ambiguous offering for a household with two laptops, as the information is inaccessible from the road. If you have a desktop already, why not have that sharing files?
Or use something like Carbonite for online backup redundancy (promo code: TWIT... hey, at least support Leo Laporte, eh?).
... Why do you think Apple shouldn't offer a home server solution?
Looking at where osx server sits relative to Linux, it just doesn't seem to have the ease of use AND flexibility I expect out of an Apple product. The issue can't just be solved with home-scale hardware. What kind of server applications would you want to run on this box?
The things I can think of that make sense at a home level are possibly:
Web Server
Asterisk/Jabber
File Server
FileMaker Database
Home Media Library
If you want cheap hardware, drive redundancy is going to be a challenge-- I would want 4 bays for it to make sense to me, plus enough processing power to do more than just file serving. I know the AppleTV hardware wasn't up to the task. I can't see Jobs going back to the cube form factor.
I think you will see widespread gigabit to the home with cloud "server" features long before Apple produces a home server.
If you want cheap hardware, drive redundancy is going to be a challenge-- I would want 4 bays for it to make sense to me, plus enough processing power to do more than just file serving. I know the AppleTV hardware wasn't up to the task. I can't see Jobs going back to the cube form factor.
I think you will see widespread gigabit to the home with cloud "server" features long before Apple produces a home server.
As I stated previously, the iPad's main HW and OS is mostly fine for this type device. It would be great to see it moved into a new AppleTV, too. These devices aren't designed for encoding video, just storing and transferring files.
Cloud computing with local storage doesn't even have a horizon to look at. The people that will figure out the technology to make it more convenient and viable to store snothing locally haven't even been born yet.
A cube-like design is pretty much a requirement unless you want to go with a pizza box, but that doesn't make sense for a home server.
Comments
Is that a typo or are you with jimmx? There is evidence to suggest this will be extremely popular, at least in some fields and in some countries. I was going by US only sales, but if they sell to multiple countries at once then 3M in 3 days could happen. But isn't their estimate 4M in the first year?
The tech-pundits and I believe an anal-cyst or 2 have mentioned that number. Some bozo investment firm was quoted at 4-10 million... which is a pathetic guestimate.
Actually, US only sales could be 4 mil... plus 6 mil. worldwide. There are just so many people out there that have never even owned a computer that just want to get on the internet with something larger than a phone, and are deathly scared of a "computer". Really. I have 3 pegged for my immediate family for just that reason.
I saw your other post Soli regarding syncing and backing up the iPad. I doubt that this is going to be a problem in the near future, what with MobileMe and other cloud accounts.
Also, I'll put money that there is some way that Apple will make that Card reader and USB adapter useful for just more than getting at what's on there already (photos).
I saw your other post Soli regarding syncing and backing up the iPad. I doubt that this is going to be a problem in the near future, what with MobileMe and other cloud accounts.
Also, I'll put money that there is some way that Apple will make that Card reader and USB adapter useful for just more than getting at what's on there already (photos).
That would still the problem of allowing for a local external HDD for Time Machine backup. MM won't cut it. Too slow and to much data for the foreseeable future.
It also leaves the problem with making the iPad's iPod app your iTunes app. In other words, the app you use to organize and syn your music to your iPhone or iPod.
Without these two things specifically being allowed I can't see it being a true competitor to a low cost PC. I'm sure it will compete well with netbooks, but netbooks aren't usually a person's only PC. In the Apple world, I think it needs those things to be a true competitor.
Good post.
Thanks!
I think it'll take 3 weeks to sell 1M.
I would have thought that too ? but did you see this Electronista article. In Norway, apparently the only place where pre-orders of the iPad were allowed, they had to shut down pre-orders due to ?crazy? (i.e. overwhelming) response. IFF this is indicative or customer reception overall, then 1M in first 3 days might be possible. (Note the big ?if?)
I really have a feeling that when people get a chance to actually try one out in an Apple store, they will go crazy over them. If the appropriate descriptor here is ?intimate? then that can only be experienced in order to be? well ? experienced.
http://www.electronista.com/articles...ipad.requests/
I would have thought that too ? but did you see this Electronista article. In Norway, apparently the only place where pre-orders of the iPad were allowed, they had to shut down pre-orders due to ?crazy? (i.e. overwhelming) response. IFF this is indicative or customer reception overall, then 1M in first 3 days might be possible. (Note the big ?if?)
I had forgotten about Norway and the likelihood it would be sold outside the US from day one. My estimate was US-centric, but the US is less than half of Apple's revenue with Europe's growth likely going to beat the US in a few quarters.
I had hoped that someone who is on my ignore list was gone from AI, but alas I'm mistaken.
This is off-topic. Stop ruining these threads.
I want one but still debating getting one at launch or waiting for the next gen. I guess that depends on if I'm actually going to work on apps for sale or just tinker with the platform...in which case the simulator will be fine for now.
My impression is that there ain't much to tinker with.
What is really interesting and what Flurry doesn't tell, is how many of these projects are existing iPhone developers rewriting their applications because they cannot support well two different devices at the same time.
Now, is this a sign of a potential platform fragmentation issue?
HP Media Smart running Windows Home Server can back up the Time Machine sparse bundle. I think DaHarder writes their learning center hehe.
That looks sweet.
Let's go back to your comment "Who else offers a solution for wireless backups? Because obviously I haven't done my homework." You didn't append "with an integrated router." That is a nice aspect of the Time Capsule and it serves its purpose well, albeit in a very limited scope, but it does not address the growing need for redundant home backups.
Plus, the Time Capsule is a single drive. The only way you have redundancy is if your files are all kept on your Macs first and foremost. RAIDed home servers allow you to have a centralized repository for your media for all machines. Most home servers have multiple drives. The one you claim is $699 has 4 bays, though it's odd that you ignore HP's cheapest option for under $400.
We haven't even got into the benefits of Windows Home Server. Possibly the most thought out version of Windows MS has ever made.
I didn't "append 'with an integrated router'" because it's apparent that TC is a router and not a server. Two categorically different devices with some overlapping in functionality, yes, but I was comparing apples to apples not to oranges.
First of all, these numbers are not about new developers but new applications.
What is really interesting and what Flurry doesn't tell, is how many of these projects are existing iPhone developers rewriting their applications because they cannot support well two different devices at the same time.
Now, is this a sign of a potential platform fragmentation issue?
You obviously don't know what you're talking about.
If you knew anything about Xcode or the MVC design pattern, you'd know that in most cases code written for one device can rather easily be modified for the other, unless there are intrinsic issues with screen resolution in which the app just wouldn't make sense running on the other screen size.
This is NOT fragmentation. This is yet further integration of the iPad with essentially the same OS X code base that drives the Mac, iPhone, and iPod Touch, which is sheer genius--especially in relation to Android's veritable fragmentation across the myriad devices which "support" it.
My impression is that there ain't much to tinker with.
Yes, because Apple doesn't have a language (ObjC), a dev environment (XCode) or a SDK for either the iPhone or iPad. Code simply flows from my brain directly into the iPhone as a finished product.
Damn those Apple engineers are good.
Being dismissive is one thing. Being stupidly dismissive entirely another.
...it does not address the growing need for redundant home backups.
Plus, the Time Capsule is a single drive. The only way you have redundancy is if your files are all kept on your Macs first and foremost. RAIDed home servers allow you to have a centralized repository for your media for all machines. Most home servers have multiple drives. The one you claim is $699 has 4 bays, though it's odd that you ignore HP's cheapest option for under $400.
We haven't even got into the benefits of Windows Home Server. Possibly the most thought out version of Windows MS has ever made.
If you want drive redundancy, plug in a drobo. A home server is an ambiguous offering for a household with two laptops, as the information is inaccessible from the road. If you have a desktop already, why not have that sharing files?
If you knew anything about Xcode or the MVC design pattern, you'd know that in most cases code written for one device can rather easily be modified for the other, unless there are intrinsic issues with screen resolution in which the app just wouldn't make sense running on the other screen size.
MVC pattern doesnt automatically mean design of a particular app is good. It is more about how well developer understands (predicts?) usage scenarios and how they differ on particular devices.
This is NOT fragmentation. This is yet further integration of the iPad with essentially the same OS X code base that drives the Mac, iPhone, and iPod Touch, which is sheer genius--especially in relation to Android's veritable fragmentation across the myriad devices which "support" it.
Alright fragmentation is a wrong word at least for now, since we assume iPad and iPhone will run exactly the same OS version (that is, 3.2 or 4.0 will be released for both). Still, how many of the existing developers will decide to produce a separate app rather than "expand" current one, is interesting.
One more thing - this is statistics for January. I can hardly imagine someone starting a real project without knowing much about the environment/device it will run on. Now, Apple may have shared some info with some of the best developers in advance, and I doubt they shared it with completely new people.
If you want drive redundancy, plug in a drobo. A home server is an ambiguous offering for a household with two laptops, as the information is inaccessible from the road. If you have a desktop already, why not have that sharing files?
1) Homes are growing to more than 2 computers, hence my desire to see a proper home server offering from Apple.
2) Why exactly is "information inaccessible from the road", IMO. I use WHS to access files remotely all the time. They give you a domain name so you don't have to remember some esoteric IP address that could keep changing. Sharing files from a desktop means that I'd have to by a domain, and host it on my own machine. Not exactly a plug-in-play operation.
3) Not a fan of Drobo for many reasons. Why would you say that is the only option over any other home server? Why do you think Apple shouldn't offer a home server solution?
The iPad is doomed!?
Just wait until Apple releases the dual screen iBinder? with double the screen real estate of the iPad... "You'll plotz when you see it!?"
If you want drive redundancy, plug in a drobo. A home server is an ambiguous offering for a household with two laptops, as the information is inaccessible from the road. If you have a desktop already, why not have that sharing files?
Or use something like Carbonite for online backup redundancy (promo code: TWIT... hey, at least support Leo Laporte, eh?).
... Why do you think Apple shouldn't offer a home server solution?
Looking at where osx server sits relative to Linux, it just doesn't seem to have the ease of use AND flexibility I expect out of an Apple product. The issue can't just be solved with home-scale hardware. What kind of server applications would you want to run on this box?
The things I can think of that make sense at a home level are possibly:If you want cheap hardware, drive redundancy is going to be a challenge-- I would want 4 bays for it to make sense to me, plus enough processing power to do more than just file serving. I know the AppleTV hardware wasn't up to the task. I can't see Jobs going back to the cube form factor.
I think you will see widespread gigabit to the home with cloud "server" features long before Apple produces a home server.
If you want cheap hardware, drive redundancy is going to be a challenge-- I would want 4 bays for it to make sense to me, plus enough processing power to do more than just file serving. I know the AppleTV hardware wasn't up to the task. I can't see Jobs going back to the cube form factor.
I think you will see widespread gigabit to the home with cloud "server" features long before Apple produces a home server.
As I stated previously, the iPad's main HW and OS is mostly fine for this type device. It would be great to see it moved into a new AppleTV, too. These devices aren't designed for encoding video, just storing and transferring files.
Cloud computing with local storage doesn't even have a horizon to look at. The people that will figure out the technology to make it more convenient and viable to store snothing locally haven't even been born yet.
A cube-like design is pretty much a requirement unless you want to go with a pizza box, but that doesn't make sense for a home server.
HP Media Smart running Windows Home Server can back up the Time Machine sparse bundle. I think DaHarder writes their learning center hehe.
[CENTER]Which is still infinitely more comprehensible/relevant than the fanatical tripe you constantly spew upon these pages.
Bottom Line:
Enough with your silly harassment, bullying and B.S. -
I have nothing to say to you or your infantile cronies, so just leave me out of your nonsensical rants - End of Story[/CENTER]
[CENTER]Which is still infinitely more comprehensible/relevant than the fanatical tripe you constantly spew upon these pages.
Bottom Line:
Enough with your silly harassment, bullying and B.S. -
I have nothing to say to you or your infantile cronies, so just leave me out of your nonsensical rants - End of Story[/CENTER]
You think drawing a 1:1 comparison between center-justified text harassment? I'd say someone has poopy in their diaper.