Apple iPad sales predicted to reach 7M in 2010, 20.1M by 2012

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  • Reply 41 of 59
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox View Post


    I can't remember at which tech site I saw the article pretty much laying out what you're saying, complete with video, but, amazingly (or perhaps inevitably) the comments were full of posters yelling "OMG awesome so much better than the MaxiPad why would anyone buy that pile of fail so beautiful it will be mine!"



    Which is why I generally have stopped reading the comments at tech sites.



    I edited my post as it was rushed and had too many errors. Did you watch the video of the JooJoo in action? If so, did you notice any other pros or cons?
  • Reply 42 of 59
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JupiterOne View Post


    Those who already have a computer. That's quite a limit, isn't it?



    LOL Right?!
  • Reply 43 of 59
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    LOL Right?!



    Hey... maybe we should start a forum that is only accessible from an iPad...



    ...other computers would just get a page containing an empty plugin (accessory) window



    sure would eliminate a lot of cruft!



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  • Reply 44 of 59
    cvaldes1831cvaldes1831 Posts: 1,832member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bkerkay View Post


    Actually, it works with both Mac and PC users/computers. Just like the iPhone and all iPods. So the market for the iPad is not only for Mac users.



    In addition to that, 85% of US households with a Mac also have a Windows PC.



    http://www.9to5mac.com/more_macs
  • Reply 45 of 59
    nasseraenasserae Posts: 3,167member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by t0mat0 View Post


    Munster is way off - if you estimate pre-sales - that'd top 900,000.



    10 million in 12 months. Guaranteed, guaranteed.



    Well, there are only 8 months left in 2010 so 7 million in 8 months which translate to almost 10 million in 12 months.
  • Reply 46 of 59
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post


    I'm certainly not one of those that thinks apple will fall apart when Jobs is no longer there, but having the guts to shun flash is definitely a uniquely Jobsian trait that will probably leave Apple when he does. To stand up and say "flash sucks, we're not supporting it, and if you want to be on the iPad you won't use it" is not the kind of thing that most risk-averse bean counting CEOs would do. For better or for worse, the dude just isn't going to do what he doesn't want to do.



    Agreed. I think it is this Jobsian trait that maintains the focus on their mission and strategic objectives through consistently applied tactics. Fortunately, in Apple/Jobs' case, the results conclude it is mostly for the better.
  • Reply 47 of 59
    addaboxaddabox Posts: 12,665member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I edited my post as it was rushed and had too many errors. Did you watch the video of the JooJoo in action? If so, did you notice any other pros or cons?



    -- As advertised, it's just a browser. So right there I can't understand what the appeal is at the same price point as the iPad.



    -- The UI is extremely choppy, even given that it doesn't even try to do animated transitions. For instance, the accelerometer screen rotation is slow to begin with, but adds insult to injury by simply blanking out for a while then reappearing in the new orientation. Touch responses look slow, to me, and inconsistent.



    -- Multiple open browser windows are navigated by something like the Pre card thing, but on a tablet sized device that strategy is insane. It just means that you have to swipe along an invisible line of windows, seeing what comes up. Since browser windows are literally all this thing does, making you scroll through open windows to find what you want is really ill advised, IMO.



    --Can't play HD video (apparently even 720p) smoothly. I mean, come on. If you're only going to do a few things, at least do those well. As a browser only device, playback of video should have been a priority.



    -- Has USB! Ha, take that Apple! Except, the only thing anyone can think of to use it for is to transfer pix from your camera for upload to Flickr. Because, you know, it doesn't actually run any apps.



    I'm just astonished that anti-Apple vitriol is sufficient to have people claiming that all of this is "beautiful" or "puts the iPad to shame" or craziness of that sort. Starting like the only sales that Joo Joo is going to get are going to be coming form the clinically Applephobic.
  • Reply 48 of 59
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Couple Quick Questions.



    I only have one iPhone so I just launch iTunes and it has all of my content to sync. But if you have two iphones in the family, how does iTunes keep the content separate? Do you have to log in as another user? Presumably the same thing for iPad and an iPhone, iTunes must keep two different syncing settings, I'm guessing. Is it difficult to manage two different iDevices on a single computer?



    m
  • Reply 49 of 59
    robogoborobogobo Posts: 378member
    I'll be somewhere in those 2011 stats, I suppose.
  • Reply 50 of 59
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mstone View Post


    Couple Quick Questions.



    I only have one iPhone so I just launch iTunes and it has all of my content to sync. But if you have two iphones in the family, how does iTunes keep the content separate? Do you have to log in as another user? Presumably the same thing for iPad and an iPhone, iTunes must keep two different syncing settings, I'm guessing. Is it difficult to manage two different iDevices on a single computer?



    m



    Absolutely. I have many iPods, an iPhone and AppleTV on mine. On Mac OS X the settings for each are saved. and even each backup of setting per device are saved multiple times.
  • Reply 51 of 59
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox View Post


    --Can't play HD video (apparently even 720p) smoothly. I mean, come on. If you're only going to do a few things, at least do those well. As a browser only device, playback of video should have been a priority.



    In their defense, that was using Flash. They say it can playback 1080p (HA!) from their video player. We'll see.
  • Reply 52 of 59
    addaboxaddabox Posts: 12,665member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    In their defense, that was using Flash. They say it can playback 1080p (HA!) from their video player. We'll see.



    Do they say what codec their video player uses? Also, I wonder what struggling through Flash encodes does to battery life?
  • Reply 53 of 59
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox View Post


    Do they say what codec their video player uses? Also, I wonder what struggling through Flash encodes does to battery life?



    It's extensive, but who can say if they've changed it or how well they'll work right. If they can support 1080p adequately I assume that will only be with H.264 due to HW acceleration.
    It supports AVI, H.264, RM, RMVB, MKV, MP4, MOV, DAT, VOB, 3GP and FLV video in addition to a few other codecs.
    I love how the containers and codecs are mixed in together as if they are same thing. Awesome¡



    Their site also claims Flash 10.1 support so it's a mystery as to why HD Flash from YouTube's low-bitrate 720p. Did they even dare to show it full screen? I honestly can't wait for Adobe to release Flash 10.1 to mobiles. Then we'll get to see what Flash can do to your user experience.
  • Reply 54 of 59
    addaboxaddabox Posts: 12,665member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    It's extensive, but who can say if they've changed it or how well they'll work right. If they can support 1080p adequately I assume that will only be with H.264 due to HW acceleration.
    It supports AVI, H.264, RM, RMVB, MKV, MP4, MOV, DAT, VOB, 3GP and FLV video in addition to a few other codecs.
    I love how the containers and codecs are mixed in together as if they are same thing. Awesome¡



    Their site also claims Flash 10.1 support so it's a mystery as to why HD Flash from YouTube's low-bitrate 720p. Did they even dare to show it full screen? I honestly can't wait for Adobe to release Flash 10.1 to mobiles. Then we'll get to see what Flash can do to your user experience.



    There are rumors about Tegra 2 based devices being delayed for Flash issues. If true: funny.
  • Reply 55 of 59
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox View Post


    There are rumors about Tegra 2 based devices being delayed for Flash issues. If true: funny.



    I believe it. The closest I've seen to Adobe demoing Flash 10.1 video playback on the Nexus One was what looked to be a very low-bitrate video in a 1"x1" window. If it really can work so well for video on mobiles over HTML5 video then why aren't they showcasing this feature? it's like Roman Polanski loitering outside Chuck E. Cheese; it doesn't look good.
  • Reply 56 of 59
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,527member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


    i have to scoff at all predictions at this point. because they are based on nothing.



    now give me the opening to opening numbers and then two weeks out from the 3g release when things are dying down a bit and use that to estimate, if sales continue at that pace, the total number sold and you've got a decent number.



    I agree to some extent-- you have reason to scoff.



    My guess is that Apple will sell 10 million by 12/31/2010.



    I have no numbers, inside information or facts to base this guess upon.



    However, I have been dealing with Apple for 32 years (bought my first Apple in June, 1978).



    I have watched them deliver quality products, almost always successful, and usually targeted to specific market needs.



    Often, they will set a new standard (raise the bar) or define a new category.



    Apple's products are first rate and so is their marketing and support.



    Nobody (me included) knows what an iPad is, what it's good for or how it will change what we do.



    But, change it, it will!



    The iPad is not a tablet computer, a netbook, a laptop... nor is it a big iPod.



    It is something else.



    I get mine tomorrow and I already have written some apps that I am anxious to experience with the device.



    If I've done a good job, the device will disappear and nothing will come between me and what my app is doing.



    Whatever its doing, it's so real that you can reach out and touch it... hold it in your hands.... respond to your touch.



    That's the "magical" promise of the iPad!



    A month from now, things will have settled down and the initial sales/satisfaction reports will be in.



    I suspect I may need to revise my guestimate upward!



    *
  • Reply 57 of 59
    My guess is that the latest predictions are closer to reality than others. They may sell that many in schools alone. Not to mention traveling sales personnel you need a demonstration unit. Or housewives who want an electronic cookbook in their kitchen. Or movie mavens who want a portable movie theatre. Or gamers. On second thought. I think I might raise the latest estimates!
  • Reply 58 of 59
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,527member
    solipsism's sig:



    Alan Kay's solicited advice to Steve Jobs after iPhone demo in 2007: “Make the screen 5" by 8" and you’ll rule the world."







    reminded me of a classic movie sequence presented by Alan Kay.



    I refer to it as "bounce, hit" or "dah, ta-da".



    Among several things, it illustrates what happens when you focus the mind and remove distraction.



    Here's a link-- start at about: 55:29 in, and learn to play tennis in 20 minutes:



    http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...7336174204822#



    The segment is old, lo-res, grainy and lasts about 10 minutes. It is so profound that I bet you'll watch the whole video.



    I tried the technique on my grandkids when they were 6, 7, and 11... it works!



    WOT? Not really! "Focus, then get out of the way" defines the magic of the iPad.



    I suspect that Alan Kay is right in his comment to Steve Jobs!





    Enjoy.



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  • Reply 59 of 59
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,527member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jstrange View Post


    My guess is that the latest predictions are closer to reality than others. They may sell that many in schools alone. Not to mention traveling sales personnel you need a demonstration unit. Or housewives who want an electronic cookbook in their kitchen. Or movie mavens who want a portable movie theatre. Or gamers. On second thought. I think I might raise the latest estimates!





    Yes!



    Here's some info that may indicate the potential for just US schools.



    http://web.me.com/dicklacara/ForWeb/...ers”.jpg





    That's nearly 68 million US students Elementary-College!



    Now, if some of the textbook publishers were creative, they could find a way to offer cash-strapped States a way to economize on their text book warehousing, distribution, etc.



    It might be possible for the publishers to simultaneously: provide free iPads, raise their profits, and reduce the costs of State and Local Education systems (and lighten those 18 lb backpacks).



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