Apple iPad sales predicted to reach 7M in 2010, 20.1M by 2012

Posted:
in Current Mac Hardware edited January 2014
A new forecast of iPad sales predicts Apple will sell 7 million units in 2010 -- a number higher than most expect on Wall Street -- with sales doubling in 2011 and nearly tripling by 2012.



Research firm iSuppli on Friday issued its expectations for the iPad, calling for 14.4 million sales in 2011 and 20.1 million in 2012. The analysis said that 2010 sales will be driven by early adopters and others who are attracted to the device's unique touch-screen user interface. But by 2011 and 2012, mass-market adoption will begin based on the number of applications available on the App Store, improved functionality, and declining prices.



The firm also noted that it considers its forecast to be "conservative," as the company believes Apple could quickly boost sales by adding features or adding support for Adobe Flash, the latter of which is highly unlikely, as detailed in AppleInsider's three-part Flash Wars series.. But with or without Flash, sales will still come, iSuppli said, thanks in large part to Apple's patented multi-touch interface.



"Touch is the new standard for user interfaces, providing a naturally intuitive way of operating an electronic device, whether you are two or 92," said Rhoda Alexander, director of monitor research for iSuppli. "The tablet form factor is ideally suited to touch. The iPad represents an intriguing mix of two devices that have struggled to gain traction for years: Internet appliances and tablet PCs.



"In a sharp departure from past tablet implementations, it appears that Apple has both minimized and maximized the capabilities of the devices, limiting it as a creation device but compensating for this shortcoming by offering a wealth of easily consumable applications. The device?s initial limitations are likely to be overlooked if Apple provides enough content to keep users engaged within the product limitations."



iSuppli said the iPad is a "huge gamble" for Apple, as some believe the darling of the tech industry may have "finally overplayed its hand." Here, again, the primary criticism from the firm is the lack of support for Adobe Flash.



"Apple has a track record of defying great odds and successfully navigating previously uncharted waters, such as it did with the iPhone," the report said. "With initial orders falling in line with expectations, Apple is likely to stick with its strategy of not using Flash unless there is a notable impact on sales."



Source: iSuppli Corp. April 2010



The numbers from iSuppli skew higher than most on Wall Street, who expect the iPad to sell between a million and 5 million in its first year. Analyst Gene Munster this week said he believes the device will sell 900,000 in the June 2010 quarter and 2.7 million in calendar year 2010, though like iSuppli, he said his numbers could be conservative.



As for Flash, its exclusion from the iPad and subsequent comments attributed to Apple co-founder Steve Jobs, in which he allegedly called the Web standard a "CPU hog," have led to a considerable amount of debate over its merits and shortcomings. On Thursday, Apple went as far as to highlight iPad-ready, Flash-free Web sites that have embraced HTML5 for streaming video.



HTML5 is an in-progress standard that Apple has backed as the company has shunned Flash by not allowing it on iPhone OS devices, including the iPhone, iPod touch and iPad.



Although Jobs reportedly said he believes it is "trivial" for Web developers to switch from Flash, some employees of leading publishers recently said they believe such a move wouldn't be so simple. But some major Web sights have still sought to have compatibility with Apple's mobile devices, and last month it was revealed that National Public Radio and The Wall Street Journal were creating specific versions of their Web sites completely devoid of Flash for iPad users. Virgin America, too, dropped Flash content from its Web site in order to allow users of iPhones to check in for flights.



In addition, Brightcove announced it has contracted with Time and The New York Times to allow HTML5 to seamlessly replace Flash video content on the publications' Web sites. The new platform provides support for intelligent device detection, playlist rendering, and playback of H.264 encoded content. Also, U.S. TV network CBS will offer HTML5 video playback for its streaming episodes when the device launches.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 59
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,527member
    10 million units by 12/31/2010



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  • Reply 2 of 59
    irelandireland Posts: 17,743member
    Around the 7M mark in 2010 makes sense. I think it's impossibly to predict with any degree of certainty though.



    It could as easily be 6M as it is 12M by January '11.
  • Reply 3 of 59
    toomeyndtoomeynd Posts: 12member
    Did they make that graph in Office '95?
  • Reply 4 of 59
    abster2coreabster2core Posts: 2,501member
    My prediction: 11,999,999 but 3 million backordered. Why the '999'?, well?



    as I posted previously, there is now competition, i.e., the JooJoo
    Quote:

    Has arrived? Well sort of.



    JooJoo Tablet Hands On Video http://www.geeky-gadgets.com/joojoo-...eo-02-04-2010/



    Will sell? Well sort of.



  • Reply 5 of 59
    quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,756member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Abster2core;


    My prediction: 11,999,999 but 3 million backordered. Why the '999'?, well?



    as I posted previously, there is now competition, i.e., the JooJoo



    The JooJoo is a big pile of fail, apparently. Firstly becuae it plain sucks. Second, it only got around 90 preorders, and I believe some of those have been returned already.
  • Reply 6 of 59
    wonderwonder Posts: 229member
    Who writes this?



    "But some major Web sights..." it should be "But some major Web sites..."
  • Reply 7 of 59
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,527member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Wonder View Post


    Who writes this?



    "But some major Web sights..." it should be "But some major Web sites..."



    Or... major web cites



    my favorite typos are:



    maimframe computer



    and



    wharehouse





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  • Reply 8 of 59
    spotonspoton Posts: 645member
    Quote:

    A new forecast of iPad sales predicts Apple will sell 7 million units in 2010 -- a number higher than most expect on Wall Street -- with sales doubling in 2011 and nearly tripling by 2012.





    Wow, forecasts coming out of people's arses more like it.



    The iPad depends upon a computer, it's not a standalone device AND it's expensive. It's also got a lot of functionality, but not a lot of storage, the same problem plaguing the iPod Touch.



    The hype may be high, but people buy on price and value. The higher the price and the less value, the less buyers.



    PC users see little value in the iPad, they can get a whole laptop for the same price. They also see the iPads limited storage as a hassle, they know over time data grows and will fill the iPad, meaning they would have to work to regulate the data. They rather have a large storage and not worry about it.



    That leaves the principal market mostly current Mac owners, who need a second device, but likely already have one for themselves but need one for their kids. Slims down the market quite a bit.



    The iPad is going to severely cannibalize sales from both the iPod Touch (which hasn't done as well as the iPod Classic because of it's low storage) and the MacBook markets, so is it really a "increase" of Apple computer market share or more like a replacement of current markets when people are ready to replace their devices with new ones?



    Apple has cut down their MacBook models to just one for the last year, purposely building up demand for the iPad it intends to replace it with.



    The data at this link is very informative and goes to show that the more expensive a "accessory device" is the less it's adopted by both all computers users and specifically Mac users.



    http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_091005.html
  • Reply 9 of 59
    roboduderobodude Posts: 273member
    Once they get round to producing enough I'm sure sales will be great. Following their 2nd revision, I can see sales really taking off. This has the potential to outdo the iPhone, an expensive phone vs a cheap computer (in the traditional sense). It's a cheaper way of switching, and people are more familiar with iPhones than Macs these days.
  • Reply 10 of 59
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,527member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post


    Wow, forecasts coming out of people's arses more like it.



    The iPad depends upon a computer, it's not a standalone device AND it's expensive.



    The data at this link is very informative and goes to show that the more expensive a "accessory device" is the less it's adopted by both PC users and Mac users.



    http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_091005.html



    The data in the link does not support your assumptions.



    Here are some things to consider:



    -- millions of households have at least 1 computer



    -- an iPhone requires a computer (more so, than an iPad).



    -- millions of iPhones have been sold



    -- an iPad is not an accessory



    -- an iPad can aquire apps and content directly with the device (no computer connection needed)



    -- you can synch backup iPad data directly to/from the cloud



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  • Reply 11 of 59
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 2,353member
    I'm certainly not one of those that thinks apple will fall apart when Jobs is no longer there, but having the guts to shun flash is definitely a uniquely Jobsian trait that will probably leave Apple when he does. To stand up and say "flash sucks, we're not supporting it, and if you want to be on the iPad you won't use it" is not the kind of thing that most risk-averse bean counting CEOs would do. For better or for worse, the dude just isn't going to do what he doesn't want to do.
  • Reply 12 of 59
    ricmacricmac Posts: 60member
    "The iPad depends upon a computer, it's not a standalone device AND it's expensive"



    Sheesh, get over it. My iPhone "depends upon a computer" so every now and then I plug it in, such as when I know there is an OS update. The rest of the time it happily goes along and does everything without even knowing there is a computer around. It is a standalone device you idiot! The only time you need a computer is to upgrade the OS; now and then maybe to do a backup. You are feebly attempting to spread the FUD that the iPad won't work unless attached to a computer. Idiot.
  • Reply 13 of 59
    jozsoojozsoo Posts: 39member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Wonder View Post


    Who writes this?



    "But some major Web sights..." it should be "But some major Web sites..."



    Yeah, AI is like TiPb: no matter how many gadgets these bloggers pile up on their desks, they seldom care to read (and revise) what they write on them.
  • Reply 14 of 59
    irelandireland Posts: 17,743member
    Bottom line is there's a lot of people in the world who don't do more than the iPad can do on their computer - so for them the iPad is a faster, lighter, easier-to-use "computer". At $499, a given the market I'd say 7M sounds right. Though, like I say it's a hard one to predict, and could go anywhere really. If I had to give a number I'd say somewhere between 5 and 12 million.



    7M sound like a good guesstimate.
  • Reply 15 of 59
    bkerkaybkerkay Posts: 139member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post


    That leaves the principal market mostly current Mac owners, who need a second device, but likely already have one for themselves but need one for their kids. Slims down the market quite a bit.



    Actually, it works with both Mac and PC users/computers. Just like the iPhone and all iPods. So the market for the iPad is not only for Mac users.
  • Reply 16 of 59
    applerulezapplerulez Posts: 108member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post


    The JooJoo is a big pile of fail, apparently. Firstly becuae it plain sucks. Second, it only got around 90 preorders, and I believe some of those have been returned already.



    Third, it uses a trendy aspect ratio. Fourth, it let's it's processor get all hogged trying to play flash.
  • Reply 17 of 59
    irelandireland Posts: 17,743member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RicMac View Post


    "The iPad depends upon a computer, it's not a standalone device AND it's expensive"



    Sheesh, get over it. My iPhone "depends upon a computer" so every now and then I plug it in, such as when I know there is an OS update. The rest of the time it happily goes along and does everything without even knowing there is a computer around. It is a standalone device you idiot! The only time you need a computer is to upgrade the OS; now and then maybe to do a backup. You are feebly attempting to spread the FUD that the iPad won't work unless attached to a computer. Idiot.



    Even if you think he's an idiot, and he may well be - don't call him it. I use the word sometime myself, but it's best to refrain from biting on the line.
  • Reply 18 of 59
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,527member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RicMac View Post


    "The iPad depends upon a computer, it's not a standalone device AND it's expensive"



    Sheesh, get over it. My iPhone "depends upon a computer" so every now and then I plug it in, such as when I know there is an OS update. The rest of the time it happily goes along and does everything without even knowing there is a computer around. It is a standalone device you idiot! The only time you need a computer is to upgrade the OS; now and then maybe to do a backup. You are feebly attempting to spread the FUD that the iPad won't work unless attached to a computer. Idiot.



    Yeah, I guess the OP would claim that a desktop computer, TV, or stereo is not a "standalone device" because each needs to be connected to an electrical outlet...



    ... and that Ferrari in his driveway... even that needs to be connected to a gas pump, now and then!



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  • Reply 19 of 59
    irelandireland Posts: 17,743member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    Yeah, I guess the OP would claim that a desktop computer, TV, or stereo is not a "standalone device" because each needs to be connected to an electrical outlet...



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    You need access to a traditional computer to do certain things: Adding digital content you already own, and updating the O.S. If you don't have access to a traditional computer chances are you won't own any digital content, so the only thing you won't be able to do is update the O.S. If you're the kind of person who doesn't have a computer you won't know what an O.S. is.



    If you look at the device the way it's intended to be used however, then it's not completely standalone. However you try to spin it.
  • Reply 20 of 59
    mrkoolaidmrkoolaid Posts: 106member
    The revenue will be spectacularly high particularly as there is no price drop in sight as the demand will always exceed the units. Way to go Apple!!
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