I was also wondering about what percentage of the tablet market Apple has captured in one day.
Last year tablet PC sales were 1.06 million. If this year sale are the same as last year and those estimates are true then Apple could have captured 40% in one day
This is only the WiFi version. Many still waiting for the 3G+WiFi.
To illustrate the aforementioned on a day-to-day basis, read the headline of the stock market (in the US) in the morning and at the end of the day -- you may find that the same "facts" may be used to justify the direction of the market at the start of the day, and may be reinterpreted (or new information) introduced, if the direction of the market are contradictory when it opens and closes during the day.
My own bias right now is that many business analysts, have the same tendency to provide the alleged "facts" to justify their predictions and projections.
I think you're confusing two different phenomena. Whatever the market does, some sort of conventional wisdom has to be stated about why it did it, even though generally nobody really knows. This is ex post facto analysis.
Analysts OTOH are attempting to make forecasts. They do themselves no favors by make things up just to valid their own predictions, since determining their accuracy is only a matter of time, and their credibility depends on being right more often than they are wrong.
I must admit that the tablet is cool, but I am not completely sold on it yet. I played with it yesterday, but have not 'needed' it today for anything. It is sitting back on the dresser.
It was nice watching netflix late at night, but I can do that with my current macbook pro.
So, the jury is still out for me personally. (I really want to love it)
why do these forums always fall for apple's supply constraint rumors? they're obviously put out by apple to spur lines and push forward demand. none of their major launches ever have supply constraints. you'd think by now people would catch on to the ruse..
It depends on which rumors you're willing to believe. The last rumor according to this article rebutted those short supply rumors and said there would be 650,000 units at launch. Which dovetails nicely with the projection of how many sold this weekend.
I must admit that the tablet is cool, but I am not completely sold on it yet. I played with it yesterday, but have not 'needed' it today for anything. It is sitting back on the dresser.
So, the jury is still out for me personally. (I really want to love it)
I wish there was a "follow this poster" button. I would like to know how it fairs in your day to day life (there are too many extremes, not enough "real life" stories.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rain
Anyone have a guess when Apple will release new iMac's?
Don't want one of these 27" models if they are plagued with problems.
No real rumours on iMacs. My mother's 27" has been brilliant - as far as I can see it's less than 1 in 1000.
I expect iLife & iWork to be updated for touch shortly... this year might be the year we add touch to iMacs and MacBooks.
I think you're confusing two different phenomena. Whatever the market does, some sort of conventional wisdom has to be stated about why it did it, even though generally nobody really knows. This is ex post facto analysis.
Analysts OTOH are attempting to make forecasts. They do themselves no favors by make things up just to valid their own predictions, since determining their accuracy is only a matter of time, and their credibility depends on being right more often than they are wrong.
My example was not about ex-post facto analysis. If youu did not get it because you are not familiar with the example I gave, or I did not explain it well enough, I have no intention to dwell too much on it or go into protracted debate here.
There is what is called "distortion of the facts" to suit one's perspective. This is very common in many political debates where the protagonists cherry pick what they quote or worse, how they interpret the same facts to suit the perspective that the proponent wanted to impart.
As to ex-post facto analysis, like the interpretation of history (or many social phenomena) has inherent bias -- it is very dependent on the perspective of the historian.
For example. the simple statement:
"Magellan discovered the Philippines" is a perspective, an analysis based from a Western point of view. Asians and Filipinos may have different perspectives for the same statement.
For more controversial example: Israelis. Palestinians, Arabs, Americans, Westerners, etc. would have differing ex-post facto analysis of events in the Middle East. Even subgroups within each of the aforementioned populations would have differing views.
Such tendency, even if not intentional. happens even in less controversial areas.
There is a joke among statisticians:
Tell me your conclusions and I shall provide the statistics.
I have yet to see a stock analyst following Apple that really used valid statistical sampling method to present as fact for their predictions and projections.
A good example is the bogus sampling method cited in this Apple Insider Article. I cite the links I posted in the previous response as to why I never believed the prediction of Munster about Apple selling 45 million iPhones annually by 2009.
If you know any such study, please let me know.
As to predictions and projections, I did not have access to the original "analyses" of Munster, but from what is published I question the validity of a number of his statistical sampling methods, as well as the premises that were the basis of his projections and predictions. As I noted also, quite often, he relied too much on rumors.
It is known that Munster is too bullish for Apple. The trouble with stock market projections is that for the most part the stock market tends to go up most of the time, and then corrects itself quite precipitously every so often. Using your statement, Munster would be with the general direction of the market most of the time, and he would be considered credible.
But, if you were unfortunate enough to follow his prediction in late 2007 and early 2008, and invested in Apple, you would have lost your shirt and everything else, especially if you panicked and sold even as late as mid 2009.
If you weathered the downturn and held the Apple stocks bought in late 2007 and early 2008, you would just be breaking even now, if at all, or made just a decent return.
On the other hand, if you simply followed the bears, you might be better of just investing elsewhere.
Okay, I'll bite. Exactly how many iPhones *did* Apple sell in 2009 and how far off was this guy. The (old) links tell us that he made this prediction. Nothing about how far off he was.
On a more serious note: I wonder how many units the most popular tablet PC's have sold in the years leading up to the iPads release? It would be interesting to compare those numbers after the iPad has been made avaiable in both WiFi + 3G versions internationally.
Would it be too outlandish to predict that Apple will probably sell more iPads in one year, than all tablets before it have sold in total?
As outlandish as comparing TabletPC sales to iPhone sales, to be honest. Apple's long term success or failure with the iPad is in there ability to position it as something you own alongside your iPhone and iMac. Selling it as a PC replacement or smart-phone replacement will cannibalize other revenue/success streams.
To a lesser degree, it can succeed in realms where you reduce the total number of PCs required, be it a hospital or home.
Maybe the most fair comparison is actually to the MacBook Air, to which it is a clear winner.
Just left this comment with iPad. I'm telling you, websites draw faster than my MacBook. The only thing I need to get used to is not resting fingers on keyboard when typing.
Yeah the web is faster than on my 2006 Macbook too, in fact since getting my iPad I have only spent about 5 mins on my Mac.
Does anyone know how to sync iWork documents via iTunes? I can't see the option anywhere.
Munster was infamous for predicting in June 2007 (?) that Apple would sell 45 million iPhone units (annually) by 2009 ***
He maintained the aforementioned projection even after the economic and market collapse that started in the summer of 2008. If you review the basis of Munster's projections, the assumptions turned out to be faulty or too exuberant. He also tends to base them from unreliable sources.
In fairness, Munster did a better job with his predictions than anybody else. Actual 2009 sales were what, 30-32MM? Android took a dent out of 2009 numbers, and ATT's impact on sales cannot be under-stated.
As to statistical analysis, if you assume that stock levels are relative to sales based on pre-orders and history, you can actually gather pretty much information. All he is really saying is that he thinks Apple sold out of their estimated stock on-hand.
The only way to follow Munster is to ask if he is too bullish on a particular item, or too conservative. Where he is conservative, there is upside potential, and where he is too bullish you need to expect a drop when actuals are provided.
Tomorrow's headlines will declare that people are quickly losing interest as sales numbers dropped sharply from 700,000 a day to 50,000 a day.
What a shame. If that rate were to hold, it would only be 1.3 million more through the 26 remaining days of April, for a first full-month total of 2 million. Kind of a slow start, eh?
I must admit that the tablet is cool, but I am not completely sold on it yet. I played with it yesterday, but have not 'needed' it today for anything. It is sitting back on the dresser.
It was nice watching netflix late at night, but I can do that with my current macbook pro.
So, the jury is still out for me personally. (I really want to love it)
My question then is: Why did you buy it?
I can think of a hundred innovative uses for the iPad, that cannot beoptimally done by the iPhone, iPod Touch or notebooks or netbooks. But, I have not bought one yet.
First, I have a tendency to buy the second generation product of Apple. iPad is one product that I wanted to buy now, but trying to discppline myself not to be impulsive.
Second, the conditions and situations where I could personally use the iPads either are not there or the applications have yet to be created.
Tomorrow's headlines will declare that people are quickly losing interest as sales numbers dropped sharply from 700,000 a day to 50,000 a day.
Do the math if Apple can maintain an average of 50,000 a day during the rest of 2010. -- that would be more than 12million iPads sold, even better than the rumored 10 million maximum iPads speculated to be manufactured this year. It would even be more successful than the first year of the iPod, and I think even the iPhone.
My prediction is that the success of the iPad would be dependent on the quality of the Apps created for it, and more so if these Apps will work also in the iPhone and the iPad Touch -- all iPhone OS products. These Apps should enable direct (wireless) printing of materials from the iPad), and increase in "productivilty and creative" Apps.
Also, further technological advances in the hardware as well as software for parallel computing would enhance the speed, increase the RAM and storage. As a result:
* The resolution of the screen would improve further.
* The battery may become more efficient
* Heat dissipation issues
* The iPad will become lighter
* There will be a reduction in price as the high cost components become cheaper
* and more as other technologies come into play
The above would enable more productive and creative Apps, apart from consumer Apps to be created. Perhaps, Apple may even create a version of the iPad that will satisfy the technophiles, but the focus would still be the iPad for the rest of us.
If the above advances as well as interoperability among the iPhone OS products happens, in three to five years. even the 45 million estimated by Munster for the iPhone is feasible for the iPad.
Instead of just Apple iPad devices, there will be competing iPad-like devices in the near future that will be perfect for the needs of different people and uses. The company with the most quality Apps and optimal interoperability would like predominate.
Really. So the weeks I spent chasing a 3G iPhone were a dream?
Right? Plus their website to see what stores have which capacities each day and the news reports about supply strains. All that a clever ruse to create demand for a product that otherwise would have none. \
Comments
I was also wondering about what percentage of the tablet market Apple has captured in one day.
Last year tablet PC sales were 1.06 million. If this year sale are the same as last year and those estimates are true then Apple could have captured 40% in one day
This is only the WiFi version. Many still waiting for the 3G+WiFi.
Tomorrow's headlines will declare that people are quickly losing interest as sales numbers dropped sharply from 700,000 a day to 50,000 a day.
It's funny because it's true...
To illustrate the aforementioned on a day-to-day basis, read the headline of the stock market (in the US) in the morning and at the end of the day -- you may find that the same "facts" may be used to justify the direction of the market at the start of the day, and may be reinterpreted (or new information) introduced, if the direction of the market are contradictory when it opens and closes during the day.
My own bias right now is that many business analysts, have the same tendency to provide the alleged "facts" to justify their predictions and projections.
I think you're confusing two different phenomena. Whatever the market does, some sort of conventional wisdom has to be stated about why it did it, even though generally nobody really knows. This is ex post facto analysis.
Analysts OTOH are attempting to make forecasts. They do themselves no favors by make things up just to valid their own predictions, since determining their accuracy is only a matter of time, and their credibility depends on being right more often than they are wrong.
I must admit that the tablet is cool, but I am not completely sold on it yet. I played with it yesterday, but have not 'needed' it today for anything. It is sitting back on the dresser.
It was nice watching netflix late at night, but I can do that with my current macbook pro.
So, the jury is still out for me personally. (I really want to love it)
Wondering if there have been any sign's or rumours on this?
Don't want one of these 27" models if they are plagued with problems.
I know it's a bit off-topic, but if I'm going to get a Pawd, may as well be on the same bill.
why do these forums always fall for apple's supply constraint rumors? they're obviously put out by apple to spur lines and push forward demand. none of their major launches ever have supply constraints. you'd think by now people would catch on to the ruse..
It depends on which rumors you're willing to believe. The last rumor according to this article rebutted those short supply rumors and said there would be 650,000 units at launch. Which dovetails nicely with the projection of how many sold this weekend.
Apple stores are open today.
Apple Irvine Spectrum, Southern California, Closed today. Not sure about South Coast or Mission Viejo.
I must admit that the tablet is cool, but I am not completely sold on it yet. I played with it yesterday, but have not 'needed' it today for anything. It is sitting back on the dresser.
So, the jury is still out for me personally. (I really want to love it)
I wish there was a "follow this poster" button. I would like to know how it fairs in your day to day life (there are too many extremes, not enough "real life" stories.
Anyone have a guess when Apple will release new iMac's?
Don't want one of these 27" models if they are plagued with problems.
No real rumours on iMacs. My mother's 27" has been brilliant - as far as I can see it's less than 1 in 1000.
I expect iLife & iWork to be updated for touch shortly... this year might be the year we add touch to iMacs and MacBooks.
I think you're confusing two different phenomena. Whatever the market does, some sort of conventional wisdom has to be stated about why it did it, even though generally nobody really knows. This is ex post facto analysis.
Analysts OTOH are attempting to make forecasts. They do themselves no favors by make things up just to valid their own predictions, since determining their accuracy is only a matter of time, and their credibility depends on being right more often than they are wrong.
My example was not about ex-post facto analysis. If youu did not get it because you are not familiar with the example I gave, or I did not explain it well enough, I have no intention to dwell too much on it or go into protracted debate here.
There is what is called "distortion of the facts" to suit one's perspective. This is very common in many political debates where the protagonists cherry pick what they quote or worse, how they interpret the same facts to suit the perspective that the proponent wanted to impart.
As to ex-post facto analysis, like the interpretation of history (or many social phenomena) has inherent bias -- it is very dependent on the perspective of the historian.
For example. the simple statement:
"Magellan discovered the Philippines" is a perspective, an analysis based from a Western point of view. Asians and Filipinos may have different perspectives for the same statement.
For more controversial example: Israelis. Palestinians, Arabs, Americans, Westerners, etc. would have differing ex-post facto analysis of events in the Middle East. Even subgroups within each of the aforementioned populations would have differing views.
Such tendency, even if not intentional. happens even in less controversial areas.
There is a joke among statisticians:
Tell me your conclusions and I shall provide the statistics.
I have yet to see a stock analyst following Apple that really used valid statistical sampling method to present as fact for their predictions and projections.
A good example is the bogus sampling method cited in this Apple Insider Article. I cite the links I posted in the previous response as to why I never believed the prediction of Munster about Apple selling 45 million iPhones annually by 2009.
If you know any such study, please let me know.
As to predictions and projections, I did not have access to the original "analyses" of Munster, but from what is published I question the validity of a number of his statistical sampling methods, as well as the premises that were the basis of his projections and predictions. As I noted also, quite often, he relied too much on rumors.
It is known that Munster is too bullish for Apple. The trouble with stock market projections is that for the most part the stock market tends to go up most of the time, and then corrects itself quite precipitously every so often. Using your statement, Munster would be with the general direction of the market most of the time, and he would be considered credible.
But, if you were unfortunate enough to follow his prediction in late 2007 and early 2008, and invested in Apple, you would have lost your shirt and everything else, especially if you panicked and sold even as late as mid 2009.
If you weathered the downturn and held the Apple stocks bought in late 2007 and early 2008, you would just be breaking even now, if at all, or made just a decent return.
On the other hand, if you simply followed the bears, you might be better of just investing elsewhere.
CGC
CGC
***
http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune....hones-in-2009/
http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=8336
Okay, I'll bite. Exactly how many iPhones *did* Apple sell in 2009 and how far off was this guy. The (old) links tell us that he made this prediction. Nothing about how far off he was.
On a more serious note: I wonder how many units the most popular tablet PC's have sold in the years leading up to the iPads release? It would be interesting to compare those numbers after the iPad has been made avaiable in both WiFi + 3G versions internationally.
Would it be too outlandish to predict that Apple will probably sell more iPads in one year, than all tablets before it have sold in total?
As outlandish as comparing TabletPC sales to iPhone sales, to be honest. Apple's long term success or failure with the iPad is in there ability to position it as something you own alongside your iPhone and iMac. Selling it as a PC replacement or smart-phone replacement will cannibalize other revenue/success streams.
To a lesser degree, it can succeed in realms where you reduce the total number of PCs required, be it a hospital or home.
Maybe the most fair comparison is actually to the MacBook Air, to which it is a clear winner.
Just left this comment with iPad. I'm telling you, websites draw faster than my MacBook. The only thing I need to get used to is not resting fingers on keyboard when typing.
Yeah the web is faster than on my 2006 Macbook too, in fact since getting my iPad I have only spent about 5 mins on my Mac.
Does anyone know how to sync iWork documents via iTunes? I can't see the option anywhere.
Munster was infamous for predicting in June 2007 (?) that Apple would sell 45 million iPhone units (annually) by 2009 ***
He maintained the aforementioned projection even after the economic and market collapse that started in the summer of 2008. If you review the basis of Munster's projections, the assumptions turned out to be faulty or too exuberant. He also tends to base them from unreliable sources.
In fairness, Munster did a better job with his predictions than anybody else. Actual 2009 sales were what, 30-32MM? Android took a dent out of 2009 numbers, and ATT's impact on sales cannot be under-stated.
As to statistical analysis, if you assume that stock levels are relative to sales based on pre-orders and history, you can actually gather pretty much information. All he is really saying is that he thinks Apple sold out of their estimated stock on-hand.
The only way to follow Munster is to ask if he is too bullish on a particular item, or too conservative. Where he is conservative, there is upside potential, and where he is too bullish you need to expect a drop when actuals are provided.
Tomorrow's headlines will declare that people are quickly losing interest as sales numbers dropped sharply from 700,000 a day to 50,000 a day.
What a shame. If that rate were to hold, it would only be 1.3 million more through the 26 remaining days of April, for a first full-month total of 2 million. Kind of a slow start, eh?
Closed here in Austin also.
I must admit that the tablet is cool, but I am not completely sold on it yet. I played with it yesterday, but have not 'needed' it today for anything. It is sitting back on the dresser.
It was nice watching netflix late at night, but I can do that with my current macbook pro.
So, the jury is still out for me personally. (I really want to love it)
My question then is: Why did you buy it?
I can think of a hundred innovative uses for the iPad, that cannot beoptimally done by the iPhone, iPod Touch or notebooks or netbooks. But, I have not bought one yet.
First, I have a tendency to buy the second generation product of Apple. iPad is one product that I wanted to buy now, but trying to discppline myself not to be impulsive.
Second, the conditions and situations where I could personally use the iPads either are not there or the applications have yet to be created.
CGC
Tomorrow's headlines will declare that people are quickly losing interest as sales numbers dropped sharply from 700,000 a day to 50,000 a day.
Do the math if Apple can maintain an average of 50,000 a day during the rest of 2010. -- that would be more than 12million iPads sold, even better than the rumored 10 million maximum iPads speculated to be manufactured this year. It would even be more successful than the first year of the iPod, and I think even the iPhone.
My prediction is that the success of the iPad would be dependent on the quality of the Apps created for it, and more so if these Apps will work also in the iPhone and the iPad Touch -- all iPhone OS products. These Apps should enable direct (wireless) printing of materials from the iPad), and increase in "productivilty and creative" Apps.
Also, further technological advances in the hardware as well as software for parallel computing would enhance the speed, increase the RAM and storage. As a result:
* The resolution of the screen would improve further.
* The battery may become more efficient
* Heat dissipation issues
* The iPad will become lighter
* There will be a reduction in price as the high cost components become cheaper
* and more as other technologies come into play
The above would enable more productive and creative Apps, apart from consumer Apps to be created. Perhaps, Apple may even create a version of the iPad that will satisfy the technophiles, but the focus would still be the iPad for the rest of us.
If the above advances as well as interoperability among the iPhone OS products happens, in three to five years. even the 45 million estimated by Munster for the iPhone is feasible for the iPad.
Instead of just Apple iPad devices, there will be competing iPad-like devices in the near future that will be perfect for the needs of different people and uses. The company with the most quality Apps and optimal interoperability would like predominate.
CGC
none of their major launches ever have supply constraints. you'd think by now people would catch on to the ruse..
Really. So the weeks I spent chasing a 3G iPhone were a dream?
Does anyone know how to sync iWork documents via iTunes? I can't see the option anywhere.
I believe it's on the bottom of the application tab. You might have to scroll down to see them.
Really. So the weeks I spent chasing a 3G iPhone were a dream?
Right? Plus their website to see what stores have which capacities each day and the news reports about supply strains. All that a clever ruse to create demand for a product that otherwise would have none.