Survey finds 16GB iPad 3G most popular, not viewed as PC replacement
A survey of customers in line to buy a 3G iPad in New York on Friday found that more than half planned to purchase the least expensive 16GB model, starting at $629, and almost none planned to have the iPad replace their traditional computer..
Among about 75 customers polled on Friday, 57 percent said they planned to purchase the 16GB model, according to analyst Maynard Um with UBS. Another 29 percent said they would opt for the $729 32GB model, and 14 percent were going for the top-end, $829 64GB model with 3G.
Um said that every 100,000 iPads sold equates to about a penny in Apple's earnings per share. With Monday's announcement of a million iPads sold, that's more than 10 cents EPS in Apple's June quarter.
The iPad with 3G carries a $130 premium over the Wi-Fi-only model. 3G access is available in the U.S. through carrier AT&T for $15-a-month for 250MB of data, and $30-a-month for unlimited access.
Similar to Um's survey of iPad buyers for the Wi-Fi-only launch on April 3, most -- 94 percent -- said the iPad will not replace their computers. Most said they will use the device for Web browsing, media content viewing and other personal entertainment. Only a handful said the primary use of the device would be for reading.
"The survey further supports our view that the iPad will not cannibalize Macs & we continue to view the device as a largely incremental growth opportunity for Apple," Um wrote in a note to investors Monday.
Um and UBS had previously forecast sales of 2.1 million for the iPad through the 2010 fiscal year. Um acknowledged Monday that those numbers were too conservative, as Apple announced that the iPad had sold more than a million in its first 28 days in the U.S. alone. The device sold more than 300,000 in just its first day in early April.
"We continue to view initial iPad strength as a source of upside to June (quarter) estimates, but note that magnitude of near-term unit upside will depend somewhat on manufacturing constraints, as Apple also noted that demand continues to outpace supply," Um wrote.
Also Monday, Apple revealed that more than 12 million applications and 1.5 million e-books were downloaded by iPad users. Um said that as the ecosystem continues to grow, it will only accelerate sales of the iPad and other devices, including the iPhone and iPod touch. The key for Apple's iBookstore is to increase its partners and offer more selection, similar to what the company accomplished with iTunes, he said.
The first sign of strong sales came over the weekend, when another analyst polled 50 Apple stores and found that 49 were sold out of the iPad with 3G. Most of those stores were also sold out of the Wi-Fi-only model, Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray reported. He suggested that Apple likely sold 300,000 iPad 3G models over the weekend. Apple did not provide a breakdown of sales for each model in its press release Monday.
Among about 75 customers polled on Friday, 57 percent said they planned to purchase the 16GB model, according to analyst Maynard Um with UBS. Another 29 percent said they would opt for the $729 32GB model, and 14 percent were going for the top-end, $829 64GB model with 3G.
Um said that every 100,000 iPads sold equates to about a penny in Apple's earnings per share. With Monday's announcement of a million iPads sold, that's more than 10 cents EPS in Apple's June quarter.
The iPad with 3G carries a $130 premium over the Wi-Fi-only model. 3G access is available in the U.S. through carrier AT&T for $15-a-month for 250MB of data, and $30-a-month for unlimited access.
Similar to Um's survey of iPad buyers for the Wi-Fi-only launch on April 3, most -- 94 percent -- said the iPad will not replace their computers. Most said they will use the device for Web browsing, media content viewing and other personal entertainment. Only a handful said the primary use of the device would be for reading.
"The survey further supports our view that the iPad will not cannibalize Macs & we continue to view the device as a largely incremental growth opportunity for Apple," Um wrote in a note to investors Monday.
Um and UBS had previously forecast sales of 2.1 million for the iPad through the 2010 fiscal year. Um acknowledged Monday that those numbers were too conservative, as Apple announced that the iPad had sold more than a million in its first 28 days in the U.S. alone. The device sold more than 300,000 in just its first day in early April.
"We continue to view initial iPad strength as a source of upside to June (quarter) estimates, but note that magnitude of near-term unit upside will depend somewhat on manufacturing constraints, as Apple also noted that demand continues to outpace supply," Um wrote.
Also Monday, Apple revealed that more than 12 million applications and 1.5 million e-books were downloaded by iPad users. Um said that as the ecosystem continues to grow, it will only accelerate sales of the iPad and other devices, including the iPhone and iPod touch. The key for Apple's iBookstore is to increase its partners and offer more selection, similar to what the company accomplished with iTunes, he said.
The first sign of strong sales came over the weekend, when another analyst polled 50 Apple stores and found that 49 were sold out of the iPad with 3G. Most of those stores were also sold out of the Wi-Fi-only model, Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray reported. He suggested that Apple likely sold 300,000 iPad 3G models over the weekend. Apple did not provide a breakdown of sales for each model in its press release Monday.
Comments
I'm getting the 16GB model because:
1) It's relatively cheap
2) I already have a 32GB 3GS, so my music needs are already served -- no need to devote a bunch of space for redundant music.
Edit: Of course, being from Europe I might be entirely wrong as demonstrated by Smiles77 ;-)
I'd have to say web browser is smoking fast on my iPad
I'm a bit surprised at this, given that for just $100 you can double the storage to 32Gb. It's such an excellent movie-watching device you'd think buyers would want that space to store video.
I agree - I am also surprised and thought people would opt for the 32GB to have security regarding the memory.
It replaced my computer, using a 64gb WiFi here. Also, out of such a small sample, 6% replacing is a pretty good amount.
Good for you...I will be getting the 16 gig 3G iPad. Hopefully, to replace my MacBook.
I also, will be upgrading my 3Gs iPhone if it includes a camera with flash. Again, hopefully, it will replace my Casio Exilim. The photos are only used in my website so no need for print quality photos. Concern is interior shots which are unusable from my iPhone 3gs.
Would be nice to be down to just carrying an iPhone and an iPad!
Is it even possible for the current iPad to operate without a computer?
It needs to be plugged into a PC or Mac with an iTunes account before it can be used, but after that it does not require a computer to operate, you can make it a stand alone computing device if you wish.
It would not replace my late 2007 Macbook but it will delay purchasing a new Macbook. I'll be opting for the 3G 16Gb RAM iPad.
Agreed...before the iPad, I was going to replace my MacBook with an updated MBA $1,500 (expected in June) but the iPad has saved me about $1,000!
It is not being marketed as a replacement for the desktop. Don't you remember the keynote slide with iPad in between iPhone and MacBook?
Well, Apple never mentions the word computer when describing the iPad AFAIK. If apple wanted to market the iPad as a computer replacement it wouldn't need to be connected to the computer the first time it's used. The main way to add new content on it (by syncing to a computer) also decreases its value as a replacement.
I'm a bit surprised at this, given that for just $100 you can double the storage to 32Gb. It's such an excellent movie-watching device you'd think buyers would want that space to store video.
I thought about this one pretty hard prior. For me it was based on my iPhone experience, opting for the larger memory and never getting above 10% used, so it was a usage pattern thing.
Also, I use the pad to stream netflix quit a bit.
It is not being marketed as a replacement for the desktop. Don't you remember the keynote slide with iPad in between iPhone and MacBook?
...on what you are primarily using your desktop/laptop for wouldn't it?
If for example you are primarily using your computer for email, web-browsing, photos, music, some light textwork, the odd presentation or spreadsheet - then arguably this could fill that niche very nicely.
For those who are actually pushing their computer, doing graphics, in-depth presentations, advanced textwork, artwork, professional level photo-editing/management, then yeah it's more about being an adjunct to not a replacement for a desktop/laptop.
The average consumer tends to fall into that first category however, and Apple may find that the iPad for many will be a suitable computer replacement. See a family, for example, with a main workstation computer, say an iMac or something similar, which serves as a docking point, and then iPads for the kids and parents for routine floating use. The docking point is there to handle the demands outside of the iPad capability, but the routine stuff is on the iPads. Moreover, since you can download content independent of the docking point (via apps, via App Store/iTunes, etc.) you are not always needing to connect to manage content.
Apple had to make sure the ipad wasn't such a bad a** that it would kill their mac sells.
But the pc vendors will shoot themselves in the foot the closer they try to best the ipad. They already operate on small margins as it is. God knows there is a freaking pc vendor on every flipping block!
And I'm sure Mr. B Gates is worried about the ipad killing the traditional, or being less dramatic, obliterating the pc.
And the irony is that the only outfit that can help the pc vendors is MS.
Ain't that a bi***!
There is no pc vendor rocking their own OS. They have spent to much time sucking off of MS. They are lazy. Maybe Google can come up with something. Who knows. But it has to play nice with the pc or just lave it in the dark.
Steve Jobs done fu**** all them fools!
OMFG!!!!!!
Just my two cents.
What do I know!
I'm a bit surprised at this, given that for just $100 you can double the storage to 32Gb. It's such an excellent movie-watching device you'd think buyers would want that space to store video.
And for another $100, double it again.
I got the 64 GB model and am really glad I didn't go for less. I have 32 GB of music and about 15 GB of videos (so far, but still ripping CDs). Sure, I could get by with just a subset of my music and videos, but I'd rather not have to decide in advance which music or movies I want to listen to when I'm traveling.
I'm glad so many are seeing the benefit of this device as a satellite computing device, not as a primary device like your PC or Mac. I'm also glad that the AT&T signup seems to be well understood by most.
It needs to be plugged into a PC or Mac with an iTunes account before it can be used, but after that it does not require a computer to operate, you can make it a stand alone computing device if you wish.
Okay..... maybe I'm missing something here.... and I'm a big fan of Apple products. If you have the iPad and dump your PC or MacBook how will you get updates for the iPad OS? And if you want to add music from one of your CD's how do you do that? If you want to rip one of your DVD's and add it to your iPad can you? If you want to have a 3rd party program can you download that and run it or are you limited to what Apple says you can have?
You are correct in saying that you can make it a stand alone if you wish but aren't you crippling your computing experience? I have a MacBook and an iPad 3g and can't see not having both to make the iPad experience what it should be.
I'm a bit surprised at this, given that for just $100 you can double the storage to 32Gb. It's such an excellent movie-watching device you'd think buyers would want that space to store video.
I agree - I am also surprised and thought people would opt for the 32GB to have security regarding the memory.
Why spend the $100 if you don't need it? Why spend the extra $$$ for a 64GB iPod touch if you don't need the extra space?
My music is on my iPhone and my iPhone is on me 24-7 -- I only have roughly 1GB of apps. I doubt that I'll have more than a few GBs of apps on my iPad.