Today Apple holds a lead with phone apps, but between their limited carriers, offering a single phone model, and the one-two punch to developers of SDK 4.0 and the growing number of arbitary AppStore purgings, we can safely expect that to level off within a year, ceding the majority of development investment to Android.
Nonsense! Apple offers a broader range than any other company currently. There is the current cellphone for those who enjoy a monthly cellphone bill, an equivalent iPod for those who don't, and the incredibly successfully launched iPad. All three share the same OS and API's (if you can develop for one you can develop for all three). No one is currently competitive for developer mindshare in the mobile market.
Whatever is revealed tomorrow will help determine if this remarkable momentum continues. Of course one needs to largely disregard the early reactions by the critics. Remember that as the iPod evolved there were always voices that remarked that the fall of Apple in this market was drawing near because of all the superior competition. The reaction of customers this fall will be a much better barometer of how well Apple is handling the evolution of this "new" OS.
Though I admire the guys with the good knowledge of statistics in this forum, I must point out that we are still talking about roughly 11.000 test persons, which is hardly a representable amount of people compared to the population of the US of A ....
Well, I'm not surprise by the numbers and it might just increase with the upcoming launch of the new Apple iPhone 4G. Apple will continue to dominate the market for many years to come.
We have unsold HTC Magics in our store which are well over a year old and they came out after the G1.
So I don't know where you are pulling this six month figure from, maybe the Droid???
Quote:
Originally Posted by djdj
This isn't quite as rosy as iPhone fans would like it to be. Keep in mind that the iPhone has been out for three years now, whereas Android phones have only been generally available for a little over 6 months. For Android to pick up that much market share in such a short time is phenomenal. And its growth rate certainly exceeds that of the iPhone. iPhone sales have slowed, while Android's continue to improve.
Long story short, there are a lot of iPhones out there, but if current trends continue, Android phones will not just outsell, but outnumber iPhones before we know it.
Am I imagining things or this place crawling with Debbie Downers lately? Between the trolls, pessimists, and armchair CEOs is there anybody left here to enjoy Apple's products and success? I guess not.
Well, this site IS called AppleInsider, not AppleLover
Yes, but Android has just begun. Looks like Apple in in for some competition.
Android really isn't competing with the iPhone. Remember that Android was bought by Google because Google was afraid of being shut out by MS and was bought before Apple released the iPhone.
I think Google wouldn't have bothered if they had known that the iPhone was the success for both Apple and Google but Google paid a lot of money for Android.
o.k. I'll bite. I am an avowed apple fan girl and have been so since 2003 when I gave up on my crappy windows/me windows/2000 computers. What ARE the innovations that Apple has copied from MS?
Multi User without having to log out. Of course that feature has always been in BSD UNIX anyway.
IRC, it was around 6 hours based on non-video/game use. Unfortunately, I don't know which review it was. Probably Engadget or Gizmodo. Frankly, the battery was so poor, it was almost baffling. The reviewer even speculated that the only way it could have been brought to market is if the engineers had never used a competing phone.
Wow. Other than that, I hear good things. But the battery needs to last from when I get up in the AM until I put it in the recharger at bedtime.
The iPhone has a shorter battery life then dumbphones (remember when we used to charge a phone once a week?) but it will last all day and if you forget to charge, it will standby for most of a second day. Short, but good enough.
Though I admire the guys with the good knowledge of statistics in this forum, I must point out that we are still talking about roughly 11.000 test persons, which is hardly a representable amount of people compared to the population of the US of A ....
11,000 is plenty enough to get a reasonably accurate sample. What's the margin of error?
Out of curiosity, do you also prefer the open data collection and open snooping into your data that is the business of Big Google Brother?
Absolutely not and Google should be ashamed for those practices. Data security is my number one concern in these wild west days of the internet. Google's practices in this area should cause everyone to think about the information they are releasing on the world. Is it secure? What are the risks involved? Especially those using social media applications.
Today Apple holds a lead with phone apps, but between their limited carriers, offering a single phone model, and the one-two punch to developers of SDK 4.0 and the growing number of arbitary AppStore purgings, we can safely expect that to level off within a year, ceding the majority of development investment to Android.
Nonsense! Apple offers a broader range than any other company currently.
I agree with you completely, but please note that we're talking about two different things: you're describing (accurately, IMO) the *current* state of development investment, but I'm projecting the impact of Apple's unprecedented limitations and bait-n-switch tactics with developers over the *next year*.
If the implications of Apple's demonstrated willingness to pull the rug out from under developers is unclear at this time, prowl around developer sites. People are getting nervous, and not without good reason.
"Burn me once, shame on you. Burn me twice, shame on me."
Apple's App Store policies are still not really analogous to the problems of Microsoft. Apple is building two concurrent development platforms. The native app store which they do control and HTML5 web apps where you are free to do anything you want.
Even more HTML5 can be used to the benefit of any of Apple's competitors. MS has not historically participated in building anything that freed the user from the Windows ecosystem.
The Google model is not a panacea it does come with its own set problems and challenges.
I agree with your statement about HTML5. In most cases, I'd much rather go to a mobile website than use an application. It promotes interoperability.
Android isn't even a company but a free OS that is piggybacking onto an already existing cell phone business.
The so called Android Phone is nothing but a coalition of COMPETING cell phone makers pimping the OS.
THIS, FTW
People talk about Android as if it was a coherent thing in a meaningful sense, when the fact that shipping phones use different versions proves it's nonsense. Different - yet not so different - from the "Apple monopoly / Windows gives you choice" floorwash.
People talk about Android as if it was a coherent thing in a meaningful sense, when the fact that shipping phones use different versions proves it's nonsense. Different - yet not so different - from the "Apple monopoly / Windows gives you choice" floorwash.
You can buy different version of Windows too. XP is still selling well, for example. Even Windows 7 comes in different versions for different devices.
Comments
...
Today Apple holds a lead with phone apps, but between their limited carriers, offering a single phone model, and the one-two punch to developers of SDK 4.0 and the growing number of arbitary AppStore purgings, we can safely expect that to level off within a year, ceding the majority of development investment to Android.
Nonsense! Apple offers a broader range than any other company currently. There is the current cellphone for those who enjoy a monthly cellphone bill, an equivalent iPod for those who don't, and the incredibly successfully launched iPad. All three share the same OS and API's (if you can develop for one you can develop for all three). No one is currently competitive for developer mindshare in the mobile market.
Whatever is revealed tomorrow will help determine if this remarkable momentum continues. Of course one needs to largely disregard the early reactions by the critics. Remember that as the iPod evolved there were always voices that remarked that the fall of Apple in this market was drawing near because of all the superior competition. The reaction of customers this fall will be a much better barometer of how well Apple is handling the evolution of this "new" OS.
As an Apple iPhone user, I find that far more interesting.
We have unsold HTC Magics in our store which are well over a year old and they came out after the G1.
So I don't know where you are pulling this six month figure from, maybe the Droid???
This isn't quite as rosy as iPhone fans would like it to be. Keep in mind that the iPhone has been out for three years now, whereas Android phones have only been generally available for a little over 6 months. For Android to pick up that much market share in such a short time is phenomenal. And its growth rate certainly exceeds that of the iPhone. iPhone sales have slowed, while Android's continue to improve.
Long story short, there are a lot of iPhones out there, but if current trends continue, Android phones will not just outsell, but outnumber iPhones before we know it.
Am I imagining things or this place crawling with Debbie Downers lately? Between the trolls, pessimists, and armchair CEOs is there anybody left here to enjoy Apple's products and success? I guess not.
Well, this site IS called AppleInsider, not AppleLover
Actually, Apple has been outspoken against jail braking an iPhone and said that it voids the warranty. Sounds like Micro$oft speak to me.
As a developer, I would never develop software for a client only to have an intermediary step in and say "sorry, we don't allow that software."
Well, developers are just like any other businessman. Some strive to be the best ... while others strive to just be.
Yes, but Android has just begun. Looks like Apple in in for some competition.
Android really isn't competing with the iPhone. Remember that Android was bought by Google because Google was afraid of being shut out by MS and was bought before Apple released the iPhone.
I think Google wouldn't have bothered if they had known that the iPhone was the success for both Apple and Google but Google paid a lot of money for Android.
o.k. I'll bite. I am an avowed apple fan girl and have been so since 2003 when I gave up on my crappy windows/me windows/2000 computers. What ARE the innovations that Apple has copied from MS?
Multi User without having to log out. Of course that feature has always been in BSD UNIX anyway.
IRC, it was around 6 hours based on non-video/game use. Unfortunately, I don't know which review it was. Probably Engadget or Gizmodo. Frankly, the battery was so poor, it was almost baffling. The reviewer even speculated that the only way it could have been brought to market is if the engineers had never used a competing phone.
Wow. Other than that, I hear good things. But the battery needs to last from when I get up in the AM until I put it in the recharger at bedtime.
The iPhone has a shorter battery life then dumbphones (remember when we used to charge a phone once a week?) but it will last all day and if you forget to charge, it will standby for most of a second day. Short, but good enough.
Short, but good enough.
The iPad is amazing however, and I bet the iPhone HD gets some of that technology.
Though I admire the guys with the good knowledge of statistics in this forum, I must point out that we are still talking about roughly 11.000 test persons, which is hardly a representable amount of people compared to the population of the US of A ....
11,000 is plenty enough to get a reasonably accurate sample. What's the margin of error?
The iPad is amazing however, and I bet the iPhone HD gets some of that technology.
The iPad's battery life is indeed amazing. Especially given the screen size.
Out of curiosity, do you also prefer the open data collection and open snooping into your data that is the business of Big Google Brother?
Absolutely not and Google should be ashamed for those practices. Data security is my number one concern in these wild west days of the internet. Google's practices in this area should cause everyone to think about the information they are releasing on the world. Is it secure? What are the risks involved? Especially those using social media applications.
Originally Posted by RationalTroll View Post
...
Today Apple holds a lead with phone apps, but between their limited carriers, offering a single phone model, and the one-two punch to developers of SDK 4.0 and the growing number of arbitary AppStore purgings, we can safely expect that to level off within a year, ceding the majority of development investment to Android.
Nonsense! Apple offers a broader range than any other company currently.
I agree with you completely, but please note that we're talking about two different things: you're describing (accurately, IMO) the *current* state of development investment, but I'm projecting the impact of Apple's unprecedented limitations and bait-n-switch tactics with developers over the *next year*.
If the implications of Apple's demonstrated willingness to pull the rug out from under developers is unclear at this time, prowl around developer sites. People are getting nervous, and not without good reason.
"Burn me once, shame on you. Burn me twice, shame on me."
Well, developers are just like any other businessman. Some strive to be the best ... while others strive to just be.
I'm not sure what this statement is supposed to mean. The platform a developer develops on has nothing to do with the quality of the software.
So do you think it will eventually be on 90+% of the mobile phones out there?
~90% of the models in production? Sure.
~90% of the total handsets in use? Not a chance (as things stand)!
Apple's App Store policies are still not really analogous to the problems of Microsoft. Apple is building two concurrent development platforms. The native app store which they do control and HTML5 web apps where you are free to do anything you want.
Even more HTML5 can be used to the benefit of any of Apple's competitors. MS has not historically participated in building anything that freed the user from the Windows ecosystem.
The Google model is not a panacea it does come with its own set problems and challenges.
I agree with your statement about HTML5. In most cases, I'd much rather go to a mobile website than use an application. It promotes interoperability.
Lets also add this to the mix:
Android isn't even a company but a free OS that is piggybacking onto an already existing cell phone business.
The so called Android Phone is nothing but a coalition of COMPETING cell phone makers pimping the OS.
THIS, FTW
People talk about Android as if it was a coherent thing in a meaningful sense, when the fact that shipping phones use different versions proves it's nonsense. Different - yet not so different - from the "Apple monopoly / Windows gives you choice" floorwash.
THIS, FTW
People talk about Android as if it was a coherent thing in a meaningful sense, when the fact that shipping phones use different versions proves it's nonsense. Different - yet not so different - from the "Apple monopoly / Windows gives you choice" floorwash.
You can buy different version of Windows too. XP is still selling well, for example. Even Windows 7 comes in different versions for different devices.
Windows is a coherent thing. So is Android.