These analysts are full of it. Sometimes I wonder if their true motivation is to artificially drive down AAPL stock prices so new investors can pick some up.
Nevertheless, I am sure Apple is not worried that they are making money hand over foot
Stop wondering. Consumer spending is up 0.4% for May, yet a fictitious report about Consumer Confidence is down 15 points lower than projected [not quantifiable information w/o paying for this report] and suddenly the market has a convenient means to sell off massively.
It's amazing how Apple can't make their products fast enough and yet they are down > $10/share.
You don't have to wonder. Stock manipulation is alive and well.
They're right, because there are no iPhone 4's in stock, I think I'll go get an HTC Evo... Oh, wait, they're out of stock too (after selling ~70,000 phones, not 1.7 million). Okay, um, perhaps I'll go get a Droid Incredible... out of stock (seemingly an impossible phone to produce). Droid X? Not even released until the middle of July. Samsung Epic? Unknown release date. Tell me, what high-end smartphone that's out there ISN'T having supply issues? They are all having trouble keeping up with demand, so the fact that I can't get an iPhone today doesn't mean I'll be able to get anything else today either.
Oh, please! HALF will buy another product because they won't wait a few weeks for a vastly superior product?
And you know otherwise? No, of course you don't know otherwise. All you know is that you believe the iPhone to be "vastly superior" -- and of course that any customer who walks into an AT&T store could not possibly be persuaded to walk out with anything else, even if they can't buy an iPhone.
Quote:
WHAT stagnant economic conditions? The ones the righties are so interested in making everyone believe in? Go check Gallup if you don't believe me. http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx Underemployment is dropping like a rock and the Job Creation Index is higher than it's been since President Obama took office.
But don't let a little thing like facts stand in your way....
Ah, no. FIrst of all, I am not a "righty." I don't even belong to a political party, and most people would call me a liberal. I am not being made to believe anything by anyone, and not especially by you. I know what's going on even if you don't, and it's not pretty.
Not sure what a link to the Gallup polls site is supposed to prove.
Believe it or not, they should... and because they are smart, they do. Every sale that you can't make to a willing customer at the moment they want to buy, is potentially a lost sale. Some will wait, but others have needs now and will go elsewhere. Bottom line, an inability to satisfy demand with your products is a gift to your competitors.
That said, the economy being what it is, no company is going to want to be stuck with excess inventory, so they are even more conservative than they might otherwise be in production. The risk is they won't have enough stock on hand if the product is a big hit right out the gate.
This whole topic just annoys the shit out of me. Apple sold 1.7 MILLION phones in 3 days. Has this ever happened with any consumer product...ever? The thing is a wild, probably unprecedented success. And what do we get? These shit-for-brains analysts that say "well, ho hum...they could have sold even MORE if they could just make more." We also get the fools that agree with them (I'm not saying you are doing so).
I do disagree about a "gift" to competitors. Back when Apple had trouble filling computer orders (500mhz debacle, PowerBooks, etc.) that might have been the case. Those were niche products. It wasn't helpful to Apple's brand and it's war against Windows. But this case is different. Apple has a dominant product that is becoming ever more so.
They've had this supply "problem" for years...since the original iPhone and particularly starting with the 3G. But the hype is so real...the product is so anticipated...that people are willing to wait. They'll wait in lines for days. This creates even more hype and loyalty. Sure, Apple may lose SOME sales as a result, but it's got to be an incredibly low number judging by how many phones they actually sell. These dumb-as-butt analysts act like Apple is in some kind of neck and neck war, trying to eek out some sales growth. The reality is that they literally can't make the things fast enough. 1.7 million is three days? I'm not sure any company could make that many, if we're talking a consumer electronics product.
--Sony sold 81,000 (+) PS3s in Japan in 24 hours---->not even close
--Sony sold 600,000 PS3s in the US and elsewhere in three days---> 1/3 as many as Apple
--CoD: MW2 did sell 4.7 million copies in 24 hours, but that's software. Duplicating a DVD=not too difficult.
They're right, because there are no iPhone 4's in stock, I think I'll go get an HTC Evo... Oh, wait, they're out of stock too (after selling ~70,000 phones, not 1.7 million). Okay, um, perhaps I'll go get a Droid Incredible... out of stock (seemingly an impossible phone to produce). Droid X? Not even released until the middle of July. Samsung Epic? Unknown release date. Tell me, what high-end smartphone that's out there ISN'T having supply issues? They are all having trouble keeping up with demand, so the fact that I can't get an iPhone today doesn't mean I'll be able to get anything else today either.
True, a lot of manufacturers are having a hard time keeping up with demand, which does mitigate the effect somewhat. But I just checked my upgrade options at AT&T, and in addition to the iPhone 4, I have 39 other choices (excluding the older iPhone models). I doubt all of them are out of stock.
--Sony sold 81,000 (+) PS3s in Japan in 24 hours---->not even close
--Sony sold 600,000 PS3s in the US and elsewhere in three days---> 1/3 as many as Apple
--CoD: MW2 did sell 4.7 million copies in 24 hours, but that's software. Duplicating a DVD=not too difficult.
Anyone have another example?
The Droid did pretty well. I find it funny that the Nexus One is the flagship Android phone yet the sales have been horrible. That same first week of sales this past January the 6-month old iPhone 3GS on Vodafone, the iPhone's 4th carrier in the UK, sold 2.5x that amount just in pre-orders.
I do disagree about a "gift" to competitors. Back when Apple had trouble filling computer orders (500mhz debacle, PowerBooks, etc.) that might have been the case. Those were niche products. It wasn't helpful to Apple's brand and it's war against Windows. But this case is different. Apple has a dominant product that is becoming ever more so.
Any time you can't sell a product at the moment someone wants to buy it, you are providing your competition with an opportunity to take that sale away from you -- and they ARE going to try, and at least some of the time they ARE going to succeed. Every time they do succeed, this is a PLUS for them and a MINUS for you. This is just completely basic, no matter what business you are in. Arbitrary distinctions don't figure in.
Again, too much reliance is being placed on the willingness of SOME people to line up overnight to buy a product. As the numbers showed, the vast majority of these were fans. They are the choir and don't need preaching to. They are the uber-loyal. The people who are thinking about buying an iPhone for the first time are an entirely different crowd. Disappoint them, and a great many will never darken your door again.
Any time you can't sell a product at the moment someone wants to buy it, you are providing your competition with an opportunity to take that sale away from you -- and they ARE going to try, and at least some of the time they ARE going to succeed. Every time they do succeed, this is a PLUS for them and a MINUS for you. This is just completely basic, no matter what business you are in. Arbitrary distinctions don't figure in.
Again, too much reliance is being placed on the willingness of SOME people to line up overnight to buy a product. As the numbers showed, the vast majority of these were fans. They are the choir and don't need preaching to. They are the uber-loyal. The people who are thinking about buying an iPhone for the first time are an entirely different crowd. Disappoint them, and a great many will never darken your door again.
You could AT LEAST follow this with "IMHO". It is, after all, only your opinion that "a great many will never darken your door again."
Or am I wrong? Do you have some form of statistical analysis to back up this statement? If so, please enlighten us.
Tina Teng apparently believes that iPhone customers have the patience of infants. How does she think they'll behave - like four-month-old crib critters who've dropped their pacifiers?
Things like broad market declines, the Greek debt fiasco, or the entire tech sector getting hammered simply don't register with these people. Being up to date on current affairs isn't part of their worldview.
I'm nearly 65 and an avid world affairs junkie as well as having become, 5 years ago when I switched to Mac, an Apple fanman (a man rather than a boy who loves Apple). I guarantee that I know more about politics, local, national and world, than certainly 98% of Americans. And world affairs of all types, not merely politics or finances.
That said, I couldn't manage to complete orders for 2 new iPhones (ours are 3Gs 2 years old) two weeks ago, but was able to the following day, very early, when the ship date was "by July 2". One arrived early, today, but the other is still showing "by July 2". So, my wife will have to wait another week or so. Fair is fair, isn't it?
You can rarely tell a book by its cover and wanting a new gadget doesn't necessarily mean one is an uninvolved, disinterested, MeMeMe, undereducated imbecile.
What happened to the other 4 iPHones? If someone is using them, they're still included in the installed base.
The only ones that would no longer be part of the installed base are those which are broken - a much smaller figure than your 80%.
one go pushed into a pool along with me, one was stolen, and two were sold to gazelle. i can't imagine my original edge-network iPhone is still in use though [sold when the 3G came out].
You could AT LEAST follow this with "IMHO". It is, after all, only your opinion that "a great many will never darken your door again."
Or am I wrong? Do you have some form of statistical analysis to back up this statement? If so, please enlighten us.
As I said earlier, nobody really knows. I think it's safe to say that those who claim that Apple cannot lose any sales of significance by not having product to sell are wrong. I think it's also safe to say that the lineups at stores are not indicative of the audience Apple needs to reach. The stats provided amply demonstrate that they are overwhelmingly not new customers.
You can hope so, but you really can't know it. As I said, every sale Apple loses, however many that is, goes to a competitor, so it hurts them twice. Yes, this matters, and no, it's not just a short-term concern. Apple cares very much about quarterly profits. Believe it or not, quarterly profit is the name of the game. Do you know of any other measure of business success?
As for those stats, they've been discussed to death and beyond. The people who line up at Apple stores overnight are not representative of the public at large. They are the most dedicated fans. (This isn't obvious?) They are not the people who are just thinking about buying an iPhone. These people don't camp out in parking lots overnight. They expect to be able to walk into a store and buy the phone when they want the phone. If the iPhone isn't there to buy, they might very well walk away with something else. Business 101.
Not true.
I was in line for 3 hours and I was surrounded by people who had never had an Apple product before. They were excited to be buying the new iPhone and had waited for the new model.
None of these people would have bought a competitor, they would have waited until they could get an iPhone.
one go pushed into a pool along with me, one was stolen, and two were sold to gazelle. i can't imagine my original edge-network iPhone is still in use though [sold when the 3G came out].
If someone paid for 2 of them, they're probably still in use. The one that was stolen is likely in use. So, 4 of your 5 iPhones are probably still in use - not the 1 in 5 that you claimed.
Comments
These analysts are full of it. Sometimes I wonder if their true motivation is to artificially drive down AAPL stock prices so new investors can pick some up.
Nevertheless, I am sure Apple is not worried that they are making money hand over foot
Stop wondering. Consumer spending is up 0.4% for May, yet a fictitious report about Consumer Confidence is down 15 points lower than projected [not quantifiable information w/o paying for this report] and suddenly the market has a convenient means to sell off massively.
It's amazing how Apple can't make their products fast enough and yet they are down > $10/share.
You don't have to wonder. Stock manipulation is alive and well.
n other words, people having a cow.
In unrelated news it looks like Cattle Futures are unaffected.
Welcome to the forum.
Does anyone remember when there were lines around the corner for Windows 95?
I usually do not comment here,
just my thoughts here:
solipsism you are right.
My prediction:
People will buy iPhone 4 like crazy, and no-one can stop it.
And if there are problems, with reception, whatsoever ...
it will be resolved, in one way or another,
this is Apple we are talking about, not some small company,
(remember: billions in cash)
even a massive recall of thousands or millions iPhones will not stop that.
People love iPone 4 , people want it. and everyone will get one.
As for today, there is no real competition.
And people will be patient until they got it, that is my opinion.
I've been reading this forum for years.
And I have seen Ireland literally freaking out about this :-)
So
@ Ireland:
Go get it, buy it, and hold it in your own hands.
If there are issues, you can return it.
... no risk.
go read this:
http://9to5mac.com/jony_ive_on_iphone_design
sorry had to tell you that,
peace out
Oh, please! HALF will buy another product because they won't wait a few weeks for a vastly superior product?
And you know otherwise? No, of course you don't know otherwise. All you know is that you believe the iPhone to be "vastly superior" -- and of course that any customer who walks into an AT&T store could not possibly be persuaded to walk out with anything else, even if they can't buy an iPhone.
WHAT stagnant economic conditions? The ones the righties are so interested in making everyone believe in? Go check Gallup if you don't believe me. http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx Underemployment is dropping like a rock and the Job Creation Index is higher than it's been since President Obama took office.
But don't let a little thing like facts stand in your way....
Ah, no. FIrst of all, I am not a "righty." I don't even belong to a political party, and most people would call me a liberal. I am not being made to believe anything by anyone, and not especially by you. I know what's going on even if you don't, and it's not pretty.
Not sure what a link to the Gallup polls site is supposed to prove.
Believe it or not, they should... and because they are smart, they do. Every sale that you can't make to a willing customer at the moment they want to buy, is potentially a lost sale. Some will wait, but others have needs now and will go elsewhere. Bottom line, an inability to satisfy demand with your products is a gift to your competitors.
That said, the economy being what it is, no company is going to want to be stuck with excess inventory, so they are even more conservative than they might otherwise be in production. The risk is they won't have enough stock on hand if the product is a big hit right out the gate.
This whole topic just annoys the shit out of me. Apple sold 1.7 MILLION phones in 3 days. Has this ever happened with any consumer product...ever? The thing is a wild, probably unprecedented success. And what do we get? These shit-for-brains analysts that say "well, ho hum...they could have sold even MORE if they could just make more."
I do disagree about a "gift" to competitors. Back when Apple had trouble filling computer orders (500mhz debacle, PowerBooks, etc.) that might have been the case. Those were niche products. It wasn't helpful to Apple's brand and it's war against Windows. But this case is different. Apple has a dominant product that is becoming ever more so.
They've had this supply "problem" for years...since the original iPhone and particularly starting with the 3G. But the hype is so real...the product is so anticipated...that people are willing to wait. They'll wait in lines for days. This creates even more hype and loyalty. Sure, Apple may lose SOME sales as a result, but it's got to be an incredibly low number judging by how many phones they actually sell. These dumb-as-butt analysts act like Apple is in some kind of neck and neck war, trying to eek out some sales growth. The reality is that they literally can't make the things fast enough. 1.7 million is three days? I'm not sure any company could make that many, if we're talking a consumer electronics product.
--Sony sold 81,000 (+) PS3s in Japan in 24 hours---->not even close
--Sony sold 600,000 PS3s in the US and elsewhere in three days---> 1/3 as many as Apple
--CoD: MW2 did sell 4.7 million copies in 24 hours, but that's software. Duplicating a DVD=not too difficult.
Anyone have another example?
They're right, because there are no iPhone 4's in stock, I think I'll go get an HTC Evo... Oh, wait, they're out of stock too (after selling ~70,000 phones, not 1.7 million). Okay, um, perhaps I'll go get a Droid Incredible... out of stock (seemingly an impossible phone to produce). Droid X? Not even released until the middle of July. Samsung Epic? Unknown release date. Tell me, what high-end smartphone that's out there ISN'T having supply issues? They are all having trouble keeping up with demand, so the fact that I can't get an iPhone today doesn't mean I'll be able to get anything else today either.
True, a lot of manufacturers are having a hard time keeping up with demand, which does mitigate the effect somewhat. But I just checked my upgrade options at AT&T, and in addition to the iPhone 4, I have 39 other choices (excluding the older iPhone models). I doubt all of them are out of stock.
hmmm?.. Maybe you should watch this.
Maybe you should watch this.
Jon Stewart makes me laugh, but I still don't take my investment advice from a comedian. Sorry.
[...]
--Sony sold 81,000 (+) PS3s in Japan in 24 hours---->not even close
--Sony sold 600,000 PS3s in the US and elsewhere in three days---> 1/3 as many as Apple
--CoD: MW2 did sell 4.7 million copies in 24 hours, but that's software. Duplicating a DVD=not too difficult.
Anyone have another example?
I do disagree about a "gift" to competitors. Back when Apple had trouble filling computer orders (500mhz debacle, PowerBooks, etc.) that might have been the case. Those were niche products. It wasn't helpful to Apple's brand and it's war against Windows. But this case is different. Apple has a dominant product that is becoming ever more so.
Any time you can't sell a product at the moment someone wants to buy it, you are providing your competition with an opportunity to take that sale away from you -- and they ARE going to try, and at least some of the time they ARE going to succeed. Every time they do succeed, this is a PLUS for them and a MINUS for you. This is just completely basic, no matter what business you are in. Arbitrary distinctions don't figure in.
Again, too much reliance is being placed on the willingness of SOME people to line up overnight to buy a product. As the numbers showed, the vast majority of these were fans. They are the choir and don't need preaching to. They are the uber-loyal. The people who are thinking about buying an iPhone for the first time are an entirely different crowd. Disappoint them, and a great many will never darken your door again.
FIrst of all, I am not a "righty."
I think if you carefully check my posts you'll see that I never said you were a "righty".
I think if you carefully check my posts you'll see that I never said you were a "righty".
No, only that I am being told what to believe by righties.
A distinction without a difference, but thanks for explaining anyway.
Any time you can't sell a product at the moment someone wants to buy it, you are providing your competition with an opportunity to take that sale away from you -- and they ARE going to try, and at least some of the time they ARE going to succeed. Every time they do succeed, this is a PLUS for them and a MINUS for you. This is just completely basic, no matter what business you are in. Arbitrary distinctions don't figure in.
Again, too much reliance is being placed on the willingness of SOME people to line up overnight to buy a product. As the numbers showed, the vast majority of these were fans. They are the choir and don't need preaching to. They are the uber-loyal. The people who are thinking about buying an iPhone for the first time are an entirely different crowd. Disappoint them, and a great many will never darken your door again.
You could AT LEAST follow this with "IMHO". It is, after all, only your opinion that "a great many will never darken your door again."
Or am I wrong? Do you have some form of statistical analysis to back up this statement? If so, please enlighten us.
No, only that I am being told what to believe by righties.
A distinction without a difference, but thanks for explaining anyway.
Do you believe them, or don't you?
Probably 2-3%.
Things like broad market declines, the Greek debt fiasco, or the entire tech sector getting hammered simply don't register with these people. Being up to date on current affairs isn't part of their worldview.
I'm nearly 65 and an avid world affairs junkie as well as having become, 5 years ago when I switched to Mac, an Apple fanman (a man rather than a boy who loves Apple). I guarantee that I know more about politics, local, national and world, than certainly 98% of Americans. And world affairs of all types, not merely politics or finances.
That said, I couldn't manage to complete orders for 2 new iPhones (ours are 3Gs 2 years old) two weeks ago, but was able to the following day, very early, when the ship date was "by July 2". One arrived early, today, but the other is still showing "by July 2". So, my wife will have to wait another week or so. Fair is fair, isn't it?
You can rarely tell a book by its cover and wanting a new gadget doesn't necessarily mean one is an uninvolved, disinterested, MeMeMe, undereducated imbecile.
I rest.
What happened to the other 4 iPHones? If someone is using them, they're still included in the installed base.
The only ones that would no longer be part of the installed base are those which are broken - a much smaller figure than your 80%.
one go pushed into a pool along with me, one was stolen, and two were sold to gazelle. i can't imagine my original edge-network iPhone is still in use though [sold when the 3G came out].
You could AT LEAST follow this with "IMHO". It is, after all, only your opinion that "a great many will never darken your door again."
Or am I wrong? Do you have some form of statistical analysis to back up this statement? If so, please enlighten us.
As I said earlier, nobody really knows. I think it's safe to say that those who claim that Apple cannot lose any sales of significance by not having product to sell are wrong. I think it's also safe to say that the lineups at stores are not indicative of the audience Apple needs to reach. The stats provided amply demonstrate that they are overwhelmingly not new customers.
Do you believe them, or don't you?
An pointless question, unworthy of a response.
You can hope so, but you really can't know it. As I said, every sale Apple loses, however many that is, goes to a competitor, so it hurts them twice. Yes, this matters, and no, it's not just a short-term concern. Apple cares very much about quarterly profits. Believe it or not, quarterly profit is the name of the game. Do you know of any other measure of business success?
As for those stats, they've been discussed to death and beyond. The people who line up at Apple stores overnight are not representative of the public at large. They are the most dedicated fans. (This isn't obvious?) They are not the people who are just thinking about buying an iPhone. These people don't camp out in parking lots overnight. They expect to be able to walk into a store and buy the phone when they want the phone. If the iPhone isn't there to buy, they might very well walk away with something else. Business 101.
Not true.
I was in line for 3 hours and I was surrounded by people who had never had an Apple product before. They were excited to be buying the new iPhone and had waited for the new model.
None of these people would have bought a competitor, they would have waited until they could get an iPhone.
one go pushed into a pool along with me, one was stolen, and two were sold to gazelle. i can't imagine my original edge-network iPhone is still in use though [sold when the 3G came out].
If someone paid for 2 of them, they're probably still in use. The one that was stolen is likely in use. So, 4 of your 5 iPhones are probably still in use - not the 1 in 5 that you claimed.