A talent for not mincing words does not necessarily make a person right.
I don't give the markets much thought on any given day. Everybody always has an explanation for what a move up or down means, after the fact. My sense is that outside of the U.S., few governments (with the exception of some of the completely dysfunctional ones) are going to allow their economies to be run into a ditch for political or ideological reasons. In the end they will do whatever they need to do, just as we did here. Even in this country, at least some conservatives don't adhere to the "better dead than debt" philosophy. I believe we'll avoid a double-dip, but it's going to be a close call.
No, it doesn't, but that was just my way of saying that I don't think he's totally over the top.
As for whether they will allow their countries to be, "run into a ditch for political or ideological reasons," if people always did act rationally, we wouldn't be in the mess we're in now. The road to Hell is paved with good intentions.*
* OK, that's a misapplication of the expression, but I think it's equally valid in this context.
No, it doesn't, but that was just my way of saying that I don't think he's totally over the top.
As for whether they will allow their countries to be, "run into a ditch for political or ideological reasons," if people always did act rationally, we wouldn't be in the mess we're in now. The road to Hell is paved with good intentions.*
* OK, that's a misapplication of the expression, but I think it's equally valid in this context.
The point I'd make here is that people are generally pretty good about looking after their self-interests, at least when they understand what they are. Not always in the finer details, but when a train is barreling down the tracks, most people have enough sense to jump off of them. Not every time, I'll certainly grant you, but usually. I think we saw that in the U.S. at the end of 2008 and into 2009 -- a lot of people held their noses and did some things they found to be utterly distasteful, because the alternative was so much worse.
Jon Stewart makes me laugh, but I still don't take my investment advice from a comedian. Sorry.
Rightly so. Interestingly enough, people took investment advice from the clown he interviewed, at least he's behaved like one on his investment show on occasion, especially with the sound effects. Cramer's antics on his show and his appearance remind me of Steve Balmer and his "Developers!" dance. It didn't help that he seriously blown several calls around the time of the financial crash.
I totally agree with this article. I can't believe how badly Apple botched the rollout of the iPhone 4.
Whomever is doing the supply predictions over at Apple should be fired.
They totally underestimated demand for the iPad, they totally underestimated demand for the iPhone, they can't make enough of these things to satisfy customers, and many customers will buy other products instead.
Believe it or not, science has shown that every single purchasing decision is an emotional decision... and once the customer's emotions change, they will no longer buy the product anymore.
I totally agree with this article. I can't believe how badly Apple botched the rollout of the iPhone 4.
Whomever is doing the supply predictions over at Apple should be fired.
They totally underestimated demand for the iPad, they totally underestimated demand for the iPhone, they can't make enough of these things to satisfy customers, and many customers will buy other products instead.
Believe it or not, science has shown that every single purchasing decision is an emotional decision... and once the customer's emotions change, they will no longer buy the product anymore.
So how many multibillion dollar product rollouts have you handled? And which of them were better than this?
It's almost impossible to get this scale of product rollout 'right'. If they have any phones left over, the Apple haters whine about insufficient demand. If they don't have enough, others whine. If they ramp up to 10 times normal production rates, their costs skyrocket - and people whine about how fast the sales drop off after the launch.
Look at the other products that sold in something like this quantity early on:
Wii - heck, they can't make enough of them even 3 years after launch.
xbox - Something like 20-30% of them failed to even power on.
PS3 - inability to meet demand
It turns out that if you're unable to hit the 'correct' number exactly, the results aren't too bad if you underestimate demand, but it can be catastrophic if you make too many. No wonder the tendency is to underestimate demand - for EVERYONE, not just Apple.
As for your 'emotional decision' argument, that may be true - but there's no sign that people's emotions change in a case like this. If anything, shortages make people want the item MORE.
Got turned away at ATT store this am due to long lines and not enough iphones.
I doubt Apple has much to worry about. No similar lines for Android phones nor similar demand. Same for RIM, Nokia, Microsoft.
Android phones aside from looking and feeling clunky compared to the iPhone 4 are a dime a dozen now. Verizon I see is now offering to let customers bail from the HTC Droid Incredible to the Motorola Droid X without a penalty. I have yet to see anybody lining up to buy them at the Verizon store like the lines at AT&T for the iPhone.
Sprint/Clear stores look like retirement centers for the MayTag repairmen. What a lonely job to be a Sprint employee.
I'm thinking about this line thing. Why should someone line up to worry about something unless they think there are no alternatives and no stock on an item?
If Apple sells out the iPhone 4, there are no other comparible iPhones to buy from that or other providers so of course people do line up to deal with the constrants. Lack of constrants doesn't reflect badly on other phone makers though. If I went down and Sprint ran out of their EVO, I could just run over to Verizon and buy the Moto Droid X as an example.
I think even as Apple fans, we have to open ourselves up to the view that self imposed bottlenecks doesn't necessarily prove something. If Apple released more than one phone from more than one source more than once a year, there might not be lines at all for them either.
Comments
A talent for not mincing words does not necessarily make a person right.
I don't give the markets much thought on any given day. Everybody always has an explanation for what a move up or down means, after the fact. My sense is that outside of the U.S., few governments (with the exception of some of the completely dysfunctional ones) are going to allow their economies to be run into a ditch for political or ideological reasons. In the end they will do whatever they need to do, just as we did here. Even in this country, at least some conservatives don't adhere to the "better dead than debt" philosophy. I believe we'll avoid a double-dip, but it's going to be a close call.
No, it doesn't, but that was just my way of saying that I don't think he's totally over the top.
As for whether they will allow their countries to be, "run into a ditch for political or ideological reasons," if people always did act rationally, we wouldn't be in the mess we're in now. The road to Hell is paved with good intentions.*
* OK, that's a misapplication of the expression, but I think it's equally valid in this context.
No, it doesn't, but that was just my way of saying that I don't think he's totally over the top.
As for whether they will allow their countries to be, "run into a ditch for political or ideological reasons," if people always did act rationally, we wouldn't be in the mess we're in now. The road to Hell is paved with good intentions.*
* OK, that's a misapplication of the expression, but I think it's equally valid in this context.
The point I'd make here is that people are generally pretty good about looking after their self-interests, at least when they understand what they are. Not always in the finer details, but when a train is barreling down the tracks, most people have enough sense to jump off of them. Not every time, I'll certainly grant you, but usually. I think we saw that in the U.S. at the end of 2008 and into 2009 -- a lot of people held their noses and did some things they found to be utterly distasteful, because the alternative was so much worse.
Jon Stewart makes me laugh, but I still don't take my investment advice from a comedian. Sorry.
Rightly so. Interestingly enough, people took investment advice from the clown he interviewed, at least he's behaved like one on his investment show on occasion, especially with the sound effects. Cramer's antics on his show and his appearance remind me of Steve Balmer and his "Developers!" dance. It didn't help that he seriously blown several calls around the time of the financial crash.
Whomever is doing the supply predictions over at Apple should be fired.
They totally underestimated demand for the iPad, they totally underestimated demand for the iPhone, they can't make enough of these things to satisfy customers, and many customers will buy other products instead.
Believe it or not, science has shown that every single purchasing decision is an emotional decision... and once the customer's emotions change, they will no longer buy the product anymore.
I totally agree with this article. I can't believe how badly Apple botched the rollout of the iPhone 4.
Whomever is doing the supply predictions over at Apple should be fired.
They totally underestimated demand for the iPad, they totally underestimated demand for the iPhone, they can't make enough of these things to satisfy customers, and many customers will buy other products instead.
Believe it or not, science has shown that every single purchasing decision is an emotional decision... and once the customer's emotions change, they will no longer buy the product anymore.
So how many multibillion dollar product rollouts have you handled? And which of them were better than this?
It's almost impossible to get this scale of product rollout 'right'. If they have any phones left over, the Apple haters whine about insufficient demand. If they don't have enough, others whine. If they ramp up to 10 times normal production rates, their costs skyrocket - and people whine about how fast the sales drop off after the launch.
Look at the other products that sold in something like this quantity early on:
Wii - heck, they can't make enough of them even 3 years after launch.
xbox - Something like 20-30% of them failed to even power on.
PS3 - inability to meet demand
It turns out that if you're unable to hit the 'correct' number exactly, the results aren't too bad if you underestimate demand, but it can be catastrophic if you make too many. No wonder the tendency is to underestimate demand - for EVERYONE, not just Apple.
As for your 'emotional decision' argument, that may be true - but there's no sign that people's emotions change in a case like this. If anything, shortages make people want the item MORE.
Got turned away at ATT store this am due to long lines and not enough iphones.
I doubt Apple has much to worry about. No similar lines for Android phones nor similar demand. Same for RIM, Nokia, Microsoft.
Android phones aside from looking and feeling clunky compared to the iPhone 4 are a dime a dozen now. Verizon I see is now offering to let customers bail from the HTC Droid Incredible to the Motorola Droid X without a penalty. I have yet to see anybody lining up to buy them at the Verizon store like the lines at AT&T for the iPhone.
Sprint/Clear stores look like retirement centers for the MayTag repairmen. What a lonely job to be a Sprint employee.
If Apple sells out the iPhone 4, there are no other comparible iPhones to buy from that or other providers so of course people do line up to deal with the constrants. Lack of constrants doesn't reflect badly on other phone makers though. If I went down and Sprint ran out of their EVO, I could just run over to Verizon and buy the Moto Droid X as an example.
I think even as Apple fans, we have to open ourselves up to the view that self imposed bottlenecks doesn't necessarily prove something. If Apple released more than one phone from more than one source more than once a year, there might not be lines at all for them either.