Isn't an "iPhone (minus voice calling)" just an iPod Touch anyway? Therefore, I think the correct comparison is to to the iPod Touch and not iPhones, too. IOW, you don't get voice calling with an iPad and no one I know bought an iPhone without intending to use it as a telephone.
Quote:
Originally Posted by desarc
the iPhone has a better camera: 5MP w/ flash vs. 1MP w/o flash.
the iPhone also has GPS, and [obviously] cellular capability - pentaband 850, 900, 1900, and 2100 MHz; [what's the 5th band?] UMTS/HSDPA chipset
that's all i know of.
From an included technology standpoint (an entirely superficial comparison), an iPad WiFi is very much like an iPod Touch, an iPad WiFi+3G (+GPS) is something of a hybrid between an iPod Touch and iPhone: more or less an iPhone without voice calls, but with mobile data. (Both being minus camera.)
Apple sold 3.47 million Macs during the quarter, representing a new quarterly record and a 33 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 8.4 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 61 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 9.41 million iPods during the quarter, representing an eight percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter. The Company began selling iPads during the quarter, with total sales of 3.27 million.
By comparison, the first holiday season for the original iPhone only sold 2.3 million units. They are apparently selling 2 million per month now and still haven?t completed the roll out? Is that correct? iOS 4.x and the G2 iPad with a FaceTime camera surely won?t hurt sales. 2 million x 12 equals 24 million, without accounting for holiday growth or year over year growth of the product. I think 28 million may be low now that I?ve looked at these numbers.
Bingo. iPhone 4 and iPad is still in high demand in already-launched countries, which is still just a sliver of where Macs are sold.
On the conservative estimate, we're looking at Apple ramping and delivering 3 million iPhones and 2 million iPads a month *worldwide*. That's 36 million iPhones and 24 million iPads a year. In 2011, theres a potential for 3 million iPads a month, and 4 million iPhone4s and 5s per month. Those figures would lead to absolutely blowout numbers of 48 million iPhones and 36 million iPads. Apple can't believe where they're at, to be honest. The fact that so many countries are waiting for launches this far into the year... Either Apple is making them really slow or demand is really off the charts.
That number sounds pretty optimistic to me. That's almost as many iPhones as Apple has sold in the last 4 quarters, and the iPhone is a more established product with a lower price. I'd be surprised if they sold 20 of them million in 2011, although I guess it depends on what they change in its first revision.
Quote:
Originally Posted by msuberly
While I agree that 28M is overly optimistic, you can't fairly compare iPads sales to iPhones sales. I think you have to compare iPad sales to iPhone + iPod Touch sales, because the iPad can be either a big iPod Touch or a big iPhone (minus voice calling) depending on which model the buyer chooses.
I'd say it is hard to estimate at this stage. iPad sales could actually be as good as iPhone sales. It really is a dark horse... Let's look at it this way. Assuming similar manufacturing capacity, if Apple were selling much less iPads than iPhone4, the the rollout of iPad in many more countries would have happened by now. Yet, iPad and iPhone4 are still only officially available in about say 10 countries. iPad launches in other countries are nowhere to be heard of so far. It is thus not out of the realm of possibility that Apple could be looking to produce and sell as many iPads as iPhone4.
Whoa.... not a good headline. Anything that starts "Apple forecast..." implies that this is Apple's forecast which the text then claims it's not. And I'm not even a journalism major.
Believe very much that the iPad will take share from the netbooks;l
I agree, sort of. I think that those that were going to buy a netbook might still do it.
It's the folks that thought it out and didn't see the point in a netbook and the whole lower power, limited utility, that are being lured to 'the dark side'. They see the ipad as a giant ipod touch and as an 'touch' they expect it to be limited so that disappointment factor is there. They expect to need a second computer cause you need that for all such 'toys' so they get/have a 'real computer' and the ipad is a compliment to it. Rather than trying to be THE computer like netbooks often do.
And then we have the businesses that have been thinking they might maybe want to go digital but didn't want to deal with a a whole fleet of notebooks or netbooks. The ipad offers a potential solution with built in limits that can be very attractive to corporate IT types
While I agree that 28M is overly optimistic, you can't fairly compare iPads sales to iPhones sales. I think you have to compare iPad sales to iPhone + iPod Touch sales, because the iPad can be either a big iPod Touch or a big iPhone (minus voice calling) depending on which model the buyer chooses.
According to the analyst, the estimate is conservative. Difficult to see why you think otherwise, since we know from long experience that analysts are typically conservative in their estimates.
As for comparing the iPad to other Apple products, I don't see the point. The iPod didn't need to be compared to anything else, and neither did the iPhone. Apple has managed to carve out another new product market. It deserves to be judged entirely on its own merits.
First off DRAM prices going down is NOTHING new. This cycle goes up and down all the time, and if you watch it you can get good pricing. Next earthquake in Japan or where ever will make prices jack up real quick, much like gas prices going up overnight when there is an oil spill. It has been doing this cycle for 10+ years, long before the iPad was even dreamed of by Jobs.
There is NO way I can believe that the iPad will impact overall PC sales. Yes there will some people that want both, a new PC and a iPad and because of lack of funds decide to get the iPad now, and then next year or whatever get a new PC. Are you going to report a year later that PC sales will go up because everyone that has an iPad now needs to upgrade their PC because they NEED both since the iPad cant replace a PC for most people? Somehow I doubt that would make a good link bait headline here iOSinsider.com
If anything I think the iPad will impact Mac sales. In fact instead of quoting some anal-ist, I will link you to some DATA that shows OS X trending down, iOS trending up.
I agree, sort of. I think that those that were going to buy a netbook might still do it.
It's the folks that thought it out and didn't see the point in a netbook and the whole lower power, limited utility, that are being lured to 'the dark side'. They see the ipad as a giant ipod touch and as an 'touch' they expect it to be limited so that disappointment factor is there. They expect to need a second computer cause you need that for all such 'toys' so they get/have a 'real computer' and the ipad is a compliment to it. Rather than trying to be THE computer like netbooks often do.
And then we have the businesses that have been thinking they might maybe want to go digital but didn't want to deal with a a whole fleet of notebooks or netbooks. The ipad offers a potential solution with built in limits that can be very attractive to corporate IT types
Good observations! Here's another, that I read recently:
Many iPad sales are made by people who already have a net book or especially a laptop or desktop --
that was due for upgrade/replacement. Instead, they purchase an iPad to augment the existing machine!
For example instead of replacing an older iMac or MacBook, you keep it and just buy an iPad.
If anything I think the iPad will impact Mac sales. In fact instead of quoting some anal-ist, I will link you to some DATA that shows OS X trending down, iOS trending up.
And your point is? The first problem with your statistics is that they are for internet usage, not for product sales. The second, even if we overlook the first, is that net usage for Windows is also down during the same period -- a great deal more than for OSX. Finally, we know from previous experience with the iPod and iPhone, that these products bring bodies into Apple stores and introduce people to Apple's entire product line, which has had a measurably beneficial impact on Mac sales (the so-called halo effect). As a result we see that Mac sales have grown at a much faster rate than the rest of the PC market as a whole for many years running, and that Apple has captured an enviable share of profits from PC sales.
Other than that, the news on Mac sales is terrible.
$500 is expensive? At worst that's $100 more than a good net book though it's hard to compare devices that are not the same form factor. I suspect this is what's behind the 7" iPad rumors -- a $399 entry level price point.
What's really gonna kill the P.C. Is not really the iPad per say. It will be all the other Pad or Slates or Netbook makers, that will find it necesarry to put everything but the kitchen sink in their versions.
They are not as smart as old Stevie. He understood that you could
not put everything in the iPad, so not to hurt his Mac's.
All the other 'bozo's are just reacting. "Oh we have to include
Flash, because Apple was'nt smart enough." "We are gonna make
our's print right out of the box." "We have to include a camera, so
everyone can Chat or Skype."
Idiots. Why would anybody buy your $800.00 computer? You are
letting people do everything anyways for $500.00 or less.
Apple just upped manufacturing of iPads to 2 million/month. They reportedly want to increase this to 3 million/month starting in October for the holiday season. At that rate they have the potential to sell 36 million in 2011 alone...on top of the 10-12 million they will have sold in 2010. Not bad.
Apple just upped manufacturing of iPads to 2 million/month. They reportedly want to increase this to 3 million/month starting in October for the holiday season. At that rate they have the potential to sell 36 million in 2011 alone...on top of the 10-12 million they will have sold in 2010. Not bad.
That also doesn't take into account what might happen when the rev 2 iPad is released next year.
That chart has nothing to do with sales its internet usage. Its been shown that iPod, iPhone, iPad are gateway products that help Mac sales. 50% of Mac sales every quarter are to people who never previously owned a Mac.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bettieblue
If anything I think the iPad will impact Mac sales. In fact instead of quoting some anal-ist, I will link you to some DATA that shows OS X trending down, iOS trending up.
Comments
-- 10.5 million total tablet sales (all brands)
-- .5 million iPads
-- 10 million all other brands
Then there was all this crap that the iPad:
-- didn't have a "proper OS"
-- didn't come with a plunger
-- couldn't attach to a firehose.
-- didn't run Flash
-- didn't "fit in" to the needs of the consumer or industry, alike
-- lacked a "killer app" or a compelling reason to buy or use
They were all completely wrong!
For the 4th time in its history, Apple has introduced a young, innocent child into the world!
It is for others to undertake to train him, mold him, see his potential, exploit his genius.
The child will ingest it all to learn and grow beyond expectations-- he will reciprocate by changing the world!
The 28M iPad forecast for 2011 is too low!
.
Isn't an "iPhone (minus voice calling)" just an iPod Touch anyway? Therefore, I think the correct comparison is to to the iPod Touch and not iPhones, too. IOW, you don't get voice calling with an iPad and no one I know bought an iPhone without intending to use it as a telephone.
the iPhone has a better camera: 5MP w/ flash vs. 1MP w/o flash.
the iPhone also has GPS, and [obviously] cellular capability - pentaband 850, 900, 1900, and 2100 MHz; [what's the 5th band?] UMTS/HSDPA chipset
that's all i know of.
From an included technology standpoint (an entirely superficial comparison), an iPad WiFi is very much like an iPod Touch, an iPad WiFi+3G (+GPS) is something of a hybrid between an iPod Touch and iPhone: more or less an iPhone without voice calls, but with mobile data. (Both being minus camera.)
...edit: Okay, here are some and dirty figures.By comparison, the first holiday season for the original iPhone only sold 2.3 million units. They are apparently selling 2 million per month now and still haven?t completed the roll out? Is that correct? iOS 4.x and the G2 iPad with a FaceTime camera surely won?t hurt sales. 2 million x 12 equals 24 million, without accounting for holiday growth or year over year growth of the product. I think 28 million may be low now that I?ve looked at these numbers.
Bingo. iPhone 4 and iPad is still in high demand in already-launched countries, which is still just a sliver of where Macs are sold.
On the conservative estimate, we're looking at Apple ramping and delivering 3 million iPhones and 2 million iPads a month *worldwide*. That's 36 million iPhones and 24 million iPads a year. In 2011, theres a potential for 3 million iPads a month, and 4 million iPhone4s and 5s per month. Those figures would lead to absolutely blowout numbers of 48 million iPhones and 36 million iPads. Apple can't believe where they're at, to be honest. The fact that so many countries are waiting for launches this far into the year... Either Apple is making them really slow or demand is really off the charts.
That number sounds pretty optimistic to me. That's almost as many iPhones as Apple has sold in the last 4 quarters, and the iPhone is a more established product with a lower price. I'd be surprised if they sold 20 of them million in 2011, although I guess it depends on what they change in its first revision.
While I agree that 28M is overly optimistic, you can't fairly compare iPads sales to iPhones sales. I think you have to compare iPad sales to iPhone + iPod Touch sales, because the iPad can be either a big iPod Touch or a big iPhone (minus voice calling) depending on which model the buyer chooses.
I'd say it is hard to estimate at this stage. iPad sales could actually be as good as iPhone sales. It really is a dark horse... Let's look at it this way. Assuming similar manufacturing capacity, if Apple were selling much less iPads than iPhone4, the the rollout of iPad in many more countries would have happened by now. Yet, iPad and iPhone4 are still only officially available in about say 10 countries. iPad launches in other countries are nowhere to be heard of so far. It is thus not out of the realm of possibility that Apple could be looking to produce and sell as many iPads as iPhone4.
Whoa.... not a good headline. Anything that starts "Apple forecast..." implies that this is Apple's forecast which the text then claims it's not. And I'm not even a journalism major.
True dat homes!
Either Apple is making them really slow or demand is really off the charts.
You can?t rush magic.
Believe very much that the iPad will take share from the netbooks;l
I agree, sort of. I think that those that were going to buy a netbook might still do it.
It's the folks that thought it out and didn't see the point in a netbook and the whole lower power, limited utility, that are being lured to 'the dark side'. They see the ipad as a giant ipod touch and as an 'touch' they expect it to be limited so that disappointment factor is there. They expect to need a second computer cause you need that for all such 'toys' so they get/have a 'real computer' and the ipad is a compliment to it. Rather than trying to be THE computer like netbooks often do.
And then we have the businesses that have been thinking they might maybe want to go digital but didn't want to deal with a a whole fleet of notebooks or netbooks. The ipad offers a potential solution with built in limits that can be very attractive to corporate IT types
You can?t rush magic.
A shortage of virgins is affecting the supply of unicorn tears, limiting the number that can be washed each day.
While I agree that 28M is overly optimistic, you can't fairly compare iPads sales to iPhones sales. I think you have to compare iPad sales to iPhone + iPod Touch sales, because the iPad can be either a big iPod Touch or a big iPhone (minus voice calling) depending on which model the buyer chooses.
According to the analyst, the estimate is conservative. Difficult to see why you think otherwise, since we know from long experience that analysts are typically conservative in their estimates.
As for comparing the iPad to other Apple products, I don't see the point. The iPod didn't need to be compared to anything else, and neither did the iPhone. Apple has managed to carve out another new product market. It deserves to be judged entirely on its own merits.
First off DRAM prices going down is NOTHING new. This cycle goes up and down all the time, and if you watch it you can get good pricing. Next earthquake in Japan or where ever will make prices jack up real quick, much like gas prices going up overnight when there is an oil spill. It has been doing this cycle for 10+ years, long before the iPad was even dreamed of by Jobs.
There is NO way I can believe that the iPad will impact overall PC sales. Yes there will some people that want both, a new PC and a iPad and because of lack of funds decide to get the iPad now, and then next year or whatever get a new PC. Are you going to report a year later that PC sales will go up because everyone that has an iPad now needs to upgrade their PC because they NEED both since the iPad cant replace a PC for most people? Somehow I doubt that would make a good link bait headline here iOSinsider.com
If anything I think the iPad will impact Mac sales. In fact instead of quoting some anal-ist, I will link you to some DATA that shows OS X trending down, iOS trending up.
http://www.netmarketshare.com/os-mar...e.aspx?qprid=9
I agree, sort of. I think that those that were going to buy a netbook might still do it.
It's the folks that thought it out and didn't see the point in a netbook and the whole lower power, limited utility, that are being lured to 'the dark side'. They see the ipad as a giant ipod touch and as an 'touch' they expect it to be limited so that disappointment factor is there. They expect to need a second computer cause you need that for all such 'toys' so they get/have a 'real computer' and the ipad is a compliment to it. Rather than trying to be THE computer like netbooks often do.
And then we have the businesses that have been thinking they might maybe want to go digital but didn't want to deal with a a whole fleet of notebooks or netbooks. The ipad offers a potential solution with built in limits that can be very attractive to corporate IT types
Good observations! Here's another, that I read recently:
Many iPad sales are made by people who already have a net book or especially a laptop or desktop --
that was due for upgrade/replacement. Instead, they purchase an iPad to augment the existing machine!
For example instead of replacing an older iMac or MacBook, you keep it and just buy an iPad.
.
If anything I think the iPad will impact Mac sales. In fact instead of quoting some anal-ist, I will link you to some DATA that shows OS X trending down, iOS trending up.
And your point is? The first problem with your statistics is that they are for internet usage, not for product sales. The second, even if we overlook the first, is that net usage for Windows is also down during the same period -- a great deal more than for OSX. Finally, we know from previous experience with the iPod and iPhone, that these products bring bodies into Apple stores and introduce people to Apple's entire product line, which has had a measurably beneficial impact on Mac sales (the so-called halo effect). As a result we see that Mac sales have grown at a much faster rate than the rest of the PC market as a whole for many years running, and that Apple has captured an enviable share of profits from PC sales.
Other than that, the news on Mac sales is terrible.
Love your quote! Here's to intelligent technology users.
I love the quote too, but putting my username in front of it makes it look like I don't agree.
Perhaps Solopsism should edit it out of his otherwise on-the-money signature.
Believe very much that the iPad will take share from the netbooks;
- netbooks are slow laptops
- netbooks are not as "easy" and "creative snappy feeling" as the iPad
I myself use it daily as a great productivity tool...
My favourite iPad apps for business (and many free or very cheap) and my experience with the ipad
Cheers,
Daniel
Yup.
The problem is that netbooks attempt to provide functionality that most users don't need, and do it badly to boot.
More useless features done badly.
Great formula for success.
iPad provides 99% of the regularly needed features, and does it beautifully.
$500 is expensive? At worst that's $100 more than a good net book though it's hard to compare devices that are not the same form factor. I suspect this is what's behind the 7" iPad rumors -- a $399 entry level price point.
'good netbook'.
Isn't that an oxymoron?
They are not as smart as old Stevie. He understood that you could
not put everything in the iPad, so not to hurt his Mac's.
All the other 'bozo's are just reacting. "Oh we have to include
Flash, because Apple was'nt smart enough." "We are gonna make
our's print right out of the box." "We have to include a camera, so
everyone can Chat or Skype."
Idiots. Why would anybody buy your $800.00 computer? You are
letting people do everything anyways for $500.00 or less.
www.ipadstore.com
Apple just upped manufacturing of iPads to 2 million/month. They reportedly want to increase this to 3 million/month starting in October for the holiday season. At that rate they have the potential to sell 36 million in 2011 alone...on top of the 10-12 million they will have sold in 2010. Not bad.
That also doesn't take into account what might happen when the rev 2 iPad is released next year.
If anything I think the iPad will impact Mac sales. In fact instead of quoting some anal-ist, I will link you to some DATA that shows OS X trending down, iOS trending up.