As time goes forward, Android will continue to be refined to the point where the experience is identical (in many places it already is and surpasses) to iOS. Apple continuing to hold the iPhone on AT&T is just giving Google the free time they need.
It doesn't matter what your personal opinion is of Android. Many have jumped onto the Android ship and the vast majority have decided to stay onboard.
If Android is a terrible as you personally say it is, then why haven't people been jumping off in droves? Why are new Android phones being gobbled up faster than they can be produced?
As noted in another thread, Android users aren't paying for apps like iPhone users, and ad apps are much more common on Android, so Android users aren't likely to have to give up much of an investment to switch. iPhone users would give up lots of paid apps and iTunes ecosystem advantages (music, etc.), so there's more of a deterent to switching for them. As a plus, Android to iPhone users likely get to take advantage of the iTunes ecosystem that they are probably already using on their iPods.
Thanks for the info. On that same note, I've been told that Apps purchased for iP4 can be used on the iPad free of charge, even though they may not be optimized for the iPad display. Many apps I know are updated to take advantage of the iPad, so do they have to be bought separately for the iPad?
Does anyone know if paid apps bought for Android can be upgraded from the developer free of charge to the iP4 or iPad? (think: ATT Android user buys apps, then decides to switch to iP4 within ATT). Just curious.
I know that iTunes keeps record of your apps purchased, as well as music, so I assume that if you switch to Verizon, you would be able to sync with your new phone, and download your music - what about the Apps? Perhaps no one knows (yet), since the choice doesn't yet exist.
Thanks for the info. On that same note, I've been told that Apps purchased for iP4 can be used on the iPad free of charge, even though they may not be optimized for the iPad display. Many apps I know are updated to take advantage of the iPad, so do they have to be bought separately for the iPad?
Does anyone know if paid apps bought for Android can be upgraded from the developer free of charge to the iP4 or iPad? (think: ATT Android user buys apps, then decides to switch to iP4 within ATT). Just curious.
I know that iTunes keeps record of your apps purchased, as well as music, so I assume that if you switch to Verizon, you would be able to sync with your new phone, and download your music - what about the Apps? Perhaps no one knows (yet), since the choice doesn't yet exist.
iPhone only apps run on iPads, but they aren't optimal, yet, still work if it's something you need. Some iPhone/iPad are universal apps that are built with both iPad and iPhone UIs. Others are sold separately. It's basically a developer decision whether to support a universal app or create separate versions.
You can't upgrade Android apps to iPhone apps because all iPhone app purchases go through the App Store, not through developers. Likewise, since it's through the App Store and your iTunes ID, a hypothetical Verizon iPhone would be able to use the apps purchased for an AT&T iPhone.
All of a sudden the antenna wasn't a problem after all. They just want their verizon iPhone. Who knew? I will now refer to the apple bloggosphere/comment whores as FUD Clowns.
I thought that they had taken over, from all the hyperventilating that went on here from some?
Wait till the iPhone shows up on Verizon: Android 9%....8%...7%...6%....
Android has 9% (I thought it was 11%) of the existing market share. But growing extremely rapidly. It's outsold the iPhone in the first two quarters. It made sense to not read too much into that since it would be reasonable to expect that most informed iPhone customers would wait till June. However, those numbers include the best release ever of the iPhone with 1.7 million phones sold in the first 3 days. By comparison, only 2.2 million iPhones were sold in the remaining 27 days of the month. I now expect that the third quarter will also see more Android phones sold compared to iPhones. In fact, at 18 million Android phones per quarter, it's nipping at the heels of all iOS devices sold - 21 million per quarter. And it's indeed remarkable since the first reasonably decent mainstream Android device was the Droid, less than a year ago.
I think Apple missed the Verizon boat. If Verizon had sold the iPhone last summer, it would have headed Android off at the pass at a time when the Android hardware was still not good enough for the mainstream. At this point, iPhone will sell a lot at Verizon, but I doubt that it's going to have a significant impact anymore. And the longer that gets delayed, the tougher and tougher it's going to get. While Verizon would love to get the iPhone, right now, Apple needs Verizon a lot more than Verizon needs Apple.
I'm just saying. Of course we all make comments we know to be right until someone points out we're not.
No groaning needed man. It's all good.
Except I think you're correct. Margin of error or not, I have never trusted surveys taken with small samples and I think they've been proven wrong many times.
In addition, most surveys are inaccurate because the way the questions are asked and answered are subject to interpretation. The way a question is asked frequently embeds bias and there's a certain amount of self-selection by people willing to take a survey that may not be consistent with the opinions of the general population.
Furthermore, what people say they are going to do is not what they actually do. Absolutely no one predicted the extent of Obama's win in 2008.
Android has 9% (I thought it was 11%) of the existing market share. But growing extremely rapidly. It's outsold the iPhone in the first two quarters. It made sense to not read too much into that since it would be reasonable to expect that most informed iPhone customers would wait till June. However, those numbers include the best release ever of the iPhone with 1.7 million phones sold in the first 3 days. By comparison, only 2.2 million iPhones were sold in the remaining 27 days of the month. I now expect that the third quarter will also see more Android phones sold compared to iPhones. In fact, at 18 million Android phones per quarter, it's nipping at the heels of all iOS devices sold - 21 million per quarter. And it's indeed remarkable since the first reasonably decent mainstream Android device was the Droid, less than a year ago.
I think Apple missed the Verizon boat. If Verizon had sold the iPhone last summer, it would have headed Android off at the pass at a time when the Android hardware was still not good enough for the mainstream. At this point, iPhone will sell a lot at Verizon, but I doubt that it's going to have a significant impact anymore. And the longer that gets delayed, the tougher and tougher it's going to get. While Verizon would love to get the iPhone, right now, Apple needs Verizon a lot more than Verizon needs Apple.
I don't understand the fretting. The smartphone and idevice market is nascent. There is plenty of room to develop, sell, and make boatloads of money in the process. The thing to worry about for consumers (in the US anyway) is what dirty tricks the telecoms have up their sleeves and how to stop veroogle from turning the internet into cable tv 2.0.
... While Verizon would love to get the iPhone ...
Well, that does raise an interesting question. Do they want the iPhone, or do they, now that they've realized they can produce Android feature phones that they fill with crapware and completely control the experience on (Like the new Verizon Android phone, I forget which one, that only allows you to search through Bing. Yeah, it will probably be hacked, but what percentage of users will actually do that.) they may be thinking they can go back to the good old days of being a carrier. On the other hand, if they end up being the only carrier without the iPhone, they'll likely end up losing subscribers over that in the long run. And, how much of a consumer backlash might there be now that it's been seen that it doesn't have to be that way?
I appreciate the love for Verizon's network, but I couldn't stand losing simultaneous voice and data functionality on AT&T 3G network. It's a tradeoff - the occasional weak signal for a dual-voice+data network.
Verizon users have never had that, so of course they wouldn't miss it, but I've gotten too accustomed to talking on a call while accessing a website or web app or my email.
Absolutely right. I'm a former Verizon customer who swtiched to AT&T only for the iPhone and of course, hated AT&T's poor service. However, I've found in recent months that the service has vastly improved and while still not as good as the service I used to get on Verizon, I have a feeling that the Verizon service will deteriorate very rapidly if tons of iPhone users switch to Verizon and/or they obtain tons of new customers. In addition, Verizon used to have cheaper overall plans than the iPhone plan on AT&T, but they don't anymore.
So that combined with the fact that I don't want to lose simultaneous voice and data means that after all my complaining that the iPhone wasn't available on Verizon, that I probably won't switch even if it becomes availble. I'm about to sign a new contract to get the iPhone 4, so I guess I'll re-evaluate in 2012.
The carriers may have noticed that, but thankfully, they've been extremely slow in locking them down. So far, the only instances I've heard of are AT&T keeping Android phones from being able to run third-party apps (on-par with the iPhone) and the Galaxy S on Verizon being restricted to Bing searchs. Neither of those two are huge deal-breakers in my book.
AT&T has the lamest selection of Android phones. It's like they went out of their way to hunt them down and line them up at AT&T. The Captivate is the only good phone they have and they gimped that one as well to prevent users from installing apps outside the Market.
For most consumers wanting to buy Android phones from Verizon, Bing is a complete deal-breaker. The fact that you can't even get the option to change the default to Google is simply unacceptable. For people who are walking into Verizon to buy a smart phone, it will make no difference since they won't realize that they are not going to get free Google Navigation and instead are going to be directed at Verizon's app. My sister was not even aware of the existence of the Market 2 months after the purchase of her Android phone. Sadly, she is representative of the mainstream buyer.
... but it's easy enough to add capacity if required.
I'm no expert, but I don't see how it can be easy to increase your manufacturing when you are also dependent upon the capacities of other companies to provide components. Somebody told me once: that "nothing simple is ever easy", and I've seen countless examples of that since.
...Switching between Android and iPhone once you've invested in one is like switching between Mac and PC. Sure, it can be done; but all the money you spent in buying apps, all the time you spent learning how the OS works, is thrown out the window. The relatively minor incremental cost for Apple to deploy a Verizon iPhone is probably insignificant to the cost of getting an established Android user to switch platforms and repurchase all their apps 3 years from now.
This would be a significant issue if it weren't for the fact that Android users actually spend a lot less money on Apps than iPhone users (in general). There is a wealth of free stuff on the Android OS, and non-free apps are fairly easy to pirate.
There's also this fact: even on iPhone, one can get hooked up quite nicely with all sorts of capabilities without dropping a ton of cash. Software is just not as big a barrier anymore. Apple has successfully hit the "reset" button on the value proposition. We are back to valuing the hardware platform, and we "expect" to get our software for minimal cost. This has to have Microsoft tearing its hair out... their entire business model has been effectively devalued because they let other companies move first and set the expectations.
If Android is a terrible as you personally say it is, then why haven't people been jumping off in droves?
Well, the majority of users can't just jump off without breaking contract, so it's probably too early to hang your hat on that one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AsianBob
Why are new Android phones being gobbled up faster than they can be produced?
Anecdotal evidence is suggesting that Android does best wherever the choice of iPhone carrier is limited, and in other places not so well. Don't know whether it's actually true, but it certainly is a plausible answer, and I guess we'll know better when two things happen:
(1) Apple DOES introduce iPhones on multiple carriers in the US, and
(2) Current Android users' contracts begin to expire and we see what they do about it.
AT&T has the lamest selection of Android phones. It's like they went out of their way to hunt them down and line them up at AT&T. The Captivate is the only good phone they have and they gimped that one as well to prevent users from installing apps outside the Market.
Well now isn't it possible that the choice wasn't entirely AT&T's?
If I were Motorola, I'd definitely seek exclusive agreements with Verizon for all of my best smartphone models. This way, you keep the margins up (in return for exclusivity, a carrier will pay higher subsidy per phone) and focus your efforts on the market segment that's most likely to gobble up your products.
Well now isn't it possible that the choice wasn't entirely AT&T's?
If I were Motorola, I'd definitely seek exclusive agreements with Verizon for all of my best smartphone models. This way, you keep the margins up (in return for exclusivity, a carrier will pay higher subsidy per phone) and focus your efforts on the market segment that's most likely to gobble up your products.
Thompson
Motorola's best Android phones do seem to be on Verizon, but HTC makes excellent Android phones and they have different top line models with T-Mobile, Sprint and Verizon. Sony Ericson has a decent Android phone. LG has some decent phones. It just seems like AT&T went to the bottom of the barrel with each vendor - except Samsung.
Although based on the AT&T exec who spoke at the mobile conference yesterday, it seems there may be some changes coming up. I only hope people haven't been buying Android phones (except Captivate) on AT&T, otherwise they'll continue with their mediocre offerings.
Well, that does raise an interesting question. Do they want the iPhone, or do they, now that they've realized they can produce Android feature phones that they fill with crapware and completely control the experience
Last summer Apple would have had Verizon bending over backwards agreeing to every possible term. I doubt that Apple will allow Verizon to ruin the iPhone experience. That's one thing Apple's done real well along with the ability to bypass the carrier for upgrades. But Verizon will make Apple give ground on other things. Android's success has all but ensured that.
Rooting the Samsung Fascinate is extremely simple and removing the stock apps is as well. You don't even need to install a custom ROM. But a mere fraction of Verizon's customers will do it. The rest will be stuck with Bing and Verizon's navigation.
Motorola's best Android phones do seem to be on Verizon, but HTC makes excellent Android phones and they have different top line models with T-Mobile, Sprint and Verizon. Sony Ericson has a decent Android phone. LG has some decent phones. It just seems like AT&T went to the bottom of the barrel with each vendor - except Samsung.
Although based on the AT&T exec who spoke at the mobile conference yesterday, it seems there may be some changes coming up. I only hope people haven't been buying Android phones (except Captivate) on AT&T, otherwise they'll continue with their mediocre offerings.
OK, so HTC's strategy seems to be one of broad market share as opposed to margin. And you're saying that HTC and AT&T haven't hooked up? I wonder what the hick-up is? (AT&T may not be everyone's favorite, but they probably don't just make business decisions arbitrarily.)
And really none of this matters right now because Apple is selling as many as they can make. These are concerns to address after they have caught up with production. If it made a difference right now, we would probably see commercials addressing the antenna concerns. It seems like they are working to address the Verizon thing. That is a balancing act they must perform to keep subsidies up. If the phones cost $300-$400 instead of $200-$300 that would also change the number of people buying the phone. If Apple has managed to reduce their production costs so they can keep the $200-$300 price, then this is the perfect time to lose exclusivity. The other option is for Apple to try to set up a subsidy battle between Verizon and AT&T to try to draw people to their networks. If the iPhone were $300-$400 on Verizon and $200-$300 on AT&T, many people planning a switch to Verizon would reconsider unless AT&T offers poor service in their area.
And really none of this matters right now because Apple is selling as many as they can make. These are concerns to address after they have caught up with production. If it made a difference right now, we would probably see commercials addressing the antenna concerns. It seems like they are working to address the Verizon thing. That is a balancing act they must perform to keep subsidies up. If the phones cost $300-$400 instead of $200-$300 that would also change the number of people buying the phone. If Apple has managed to reduce their production costs so they can keep the $200-$300 price, then this is the perfect time to lose exclusivity. The other option is for Apple to try to set up a subsidy battle between Verizon and AT&T to try to draw people to their networks. If the iPhone were $300-$400 on Verizon and $200-$300 on AT&T, many people planning a switch to Verizon would reconsider unless AT&T offers poor service in their area.
You're right about the irrelevance of the antenna issue as long as Apple is making and shipping the maximum possible number of iPhones under any circumstances.
Note, however, that the iPhone sticker price for the consumer is going to be the same regardless of AT&T or Verizon. Competition will enforce that. If one lowers, the other will too.
The results of your (mostly correct) analysis is that the invisible subsidy paid from the carriers to Apple are going to become subjects of intense (behind the scenes) negotiation.
Comments
As time goes forward, Android will continue to be refined to the point where the experience is identical (in many places it already is and surpasses) to iOS. Apple continuing to hold the iPhone on AT&T is just giving Google the free time they need.
It doesn't matter what your personal opinion is of Android. Many have jumped onto the Android ship and the vast majority have decided to stay onboard.
If Android is a terrible as you personally say it is, then why haven't people been jumping off in droves? Why are new Android phones being gobbled up faster than they can be produced?
THEY HAVE, god get your facts right.
As noted in another thread, Android users aren't paying for apps like iPhone users, and ad apps are much more common on Android, so Android users aren't likely to have to give up much of an investment to switch. iPhone users would give up lots of paid apps and iTunes ecosystem advantages (music, etc.), so there's more of a deterent to switching for them. As a plus, Android to iPhone users likely get to take advantage of the iTunes ecosystem that they are probably already using on their iPods.
Thanks for the info. On that same note, I've been told that Apps purchased for iP4 can be used on the iPad free of charge, even though they may not be optimized for the iPad display. Many apps I know are updated to take advantage of the iPad, so do they have to be bought separately for the iPad?
Does anyone know if paid apps bought for Android can be upgraded from the developer free of charge to the iP4 or iPad? (think: ATT Android user buys apps, then decides to switch to iP4 within ATT). Just curious.
I know that iTunes keeps record of your apps purchased, as well as music, so I assume that if you switch to Verizon, you would be able to sync with your new phone, and download your music - what about the Apps? Perhaps no one knows (yet), since the choice doesn't yet exist.
Thanks for the info. On that same note, I've been told that Apps purchased for iP4 can be used on the iPad free of charge, even though they may not be optimized for the iPad display. Many apps I know are updated to take advantage of the iPad, so do they have to be bought separately for the iPad?
Does anyone know if paid apps bought for Android can be upgraded from the developer free of charge to the iP4 or iPad? (think: ATT Android user buys apps, then decides to switch to iP4 within ATT). Just curious.
I know that iTunes keeps record of your apps purchased, as well as music, so I assume that if you switch to Verizon, you would be able to sync with your new phone, and download your music - what about the Apps? Perhaps no one knows (yet), since the choice doesn't yet exist.
iPhone only apps run on iPads, but they aren't optimal, yet, still work if it's something you need. Some iPhone/iPad are universal apps that are built with both iPad and iPhone UIs. Others are sold separately. It's basically a developer decision whether to support a universal app or create separate versions.
You can't upgrade Android apps to iPhone apps because all iPhone app purchases go through the App Store, not through developers. Likewise, since it's through the App Store and your iTunes ID, a hypothetical Verizon iPhone would be able to use the apps purchased for an AT&T iPhone.
Androids have only a 9% share?
I thought that they had taken over, from all the hyperventilating that went on here from some?
Wait till the iPhone shows up on Verizon: Android 9%....8%...7%...6%....
Android has 9% (I thought it was 11%) of the existing market share. But growing extremely rapidly. It's outsold the iPhone in the first two quarters. It made sense to not read too much into that since it would be reasonable to expect that most informed iPhone customers would wait till June. However, those numbers include the best release ever of the iPhone with 1.7 million phones sold in the first 3 days. By comparison, only 2.2 million iPhones were sold in the remaining 27 days of the month. I now expect that the third quarter will also see more Android phones sold compared to iPhones. In fact, at 18 million Android phones per quarter, it's nipping at the heels of all iOS devices sold - 21 million per quarter. And it's indeed remarkable since the first reasonably decent mainstream Android device was the Droid, less than a year ago.
I think Apple missed the Verizon boat. If Verizon had sold the iPhone last summer, it would have headed Android off at the pass at a time when the Android hardware was still not good enough for the mainstream. At this point, iPhone will sell a lot at Verizon, but I doubt that it's going to have a significant impact anymore. And the longer that gets delayed, the tougher and tougher it's going to get. While Verizon would love to get the iPhone, right now, Apple needs Verizon a lot more than Verizon needs Apple.
Thanks bud. It's ok I get it.
I'm just saying. Of course we all make comments we know to be right until someone points out we're not.
No groaning needed man. It's all good.
Except I think you're correct. Margin of error or not, I have never trusted surveys taken with small samples and I think they've been proven wrong many times.
In addition, most surveys are inaccurate because the way the questions are asked and answered are subject to interpretation. The way a question is asked frequently embeds bias and there's a certain amount of self-selection by people willing to take a survey that may not be consistent with the opinions of the general population.
Furthermore, what people say they are going to do is not what they actually do. Absolutely no one predicted the extent of Obama's win in 2008.
Android has 9% (I thought it was 11%) of the existing market share. But growing extremely rapidly. It's outsold the iPhone in the first two quarters. It made sense to not read too much into that since it would be reasonable to expect that most informed iPhone customers would wait till June. However, those numbers include the best release ever of the iPhone with 1.7 million phones sold in the first 3 days. By comparison, only 2.2 million iPhones were sold in the remaining 27 days of the month. I now expect that the third quarter will also see more Android phones sold compared to iPhones. In fact, at 18 million Android phones per quarter, it's nipping at the heels of all iOS devices sold - 21 million per quarter. And it's indeed remarkable since the first reasonably decent mainstream Android device was the Droid, less than a year ago.
I think Apple missed the Verizon boat. If Verizon had sold the iPhone last summer, it would have headed Android off at the pass at a time when the Android hardware was still not good enough for the mainstream. At this point, iPhone will sell a lot at Verizon, but I doubt that it's going to have a significant impact anymore. And the longer that gets delayed, the tougher and tougher it's going to get. While Verizon would love to get the iPhone, right now, Apple needs Verizon a lot more than Verizon needs Apple.
I don't understand the fretting. The smartphone and idevice market is nascent. There is plenty of room to develop, sell, and make boatloads of money in the process. The thing to worry about for consumers (in the US anyway) is what dirty tricks the telecoms have up their sleeves and how to stop veroogle from turning the internet into cable tv 2.0.
... While Verizon would love to get the iPhone ...
Well, that does raise an interesting question. Do they want the iPhone, or do they, now that they've realized they can produce Android feature phones that they fill with crapware and completely control the experience on (Like the new Verizon Android phone, I forget which one, that only allows you to search through Bing. Yeah, it will probably be hacked, but what percentage of users will actually do that.) they may be thinking they can go back to the good old days of being a carrier. On the other hand, if they end up being the only carrier without the iPhone, they'll likely end up losing subscribers over that in the long run. And, how much of a consumer backlash might there be now that it's been seen that it doesn't have to be that way?
I appreciate the love for Verizon's network, but I couldn't stand losing simultaneous voice and data functionality on AT&T 3G network. It's a tradeoff - the occasional weak signal for a dual-voice+data network.
Verizon users have never had that, so of course they wouldn't miss it, but I've gotten too accustomed to talking on a call while accessing a website or web app or my email.
Absolutely right. I'm a former Verizon customer who swtiched to AT&T only for the iPhone and of course, hated AT&T's poor service. However, I've found in recent months that the service has vastly improved and while still not as good as the service I used to get on Verizon, I have a feeling that the Verizon service will deteriorate very rapidly if tons of iPhone users switch to Verizon and/or they obtain tons of new customers. In addition, Verizon used to have cheaper overall plans than the iPhone plan on AT&T, but they don't anymore.
So that combined with the fact that I don't want to lose simultaneous voice and data means that after all my complaining that the iPhone wasn't available on Verizon, that I probably won't switch even if it becomes availble. I'm about to sign a new contract to get the iPhone 4, so I guess I'll re-evaluate in 2012.
The carriers may have noticed that, but thankfully, they've been extremely slow in locking them down. So far, the only instances I've heard of are AT&T keeping Android phones from being able to run third-party apps (on-par with the iPhone) and the Galaxy S on Verizon being restricted to Bing searchs. Neither of those two are huge deal-breakers in my book.
AT&T has the lamest selection of Android phones. It's like they went out of their way to hunt them down and line them up at AT&T. The Captivate is the only good phone they have and they gimped that one as well to prevent users from installing apps outside the Market.
For most consumers wanting to buy Android phones from Verizon, Bing is a complete deal-breaker. The fact that you can't even get the option to change the default to Google is simply unacceptable. For people who are walking into Verizon to buy a smart phone, it will make no difference since they won't realize that they are not going to get free Google Navigation and instead are going to be directed at Verizon's app. My sister was not even aware of the existence of the Market 2 months after the purchase of her Android phone. Sadly, she is representative of the mainstream buyer.
... but it's easy enough to add capacity if required.
I'm no expert, but I don't see how it can be easy to increase your manufacturing when you are also dependent upon the capacities of other companies to provide components. Somebody told me once: that "nothing simple is ever easy", and I've seen countless examples of that since.
Thompson
...Switching between Android and iPhone once you've invested in one is like switching between Mac and PC. Sure, it can be done; but all the money you spent in buying apps, all the time you spent learning how the OS works, is thrown out the window. The relatively minor incremental cost for Apple to deploy a Verizon iPhone is probably insignificant to the cost of getting an established Android user to switch platforms and repurchase all their apps 3 years from now.
This would be a significant issue if it weren't for the fact that Android users actually spend a lot less money on Apps than iPhone users (in general). There is a wealth of free stuff on the Android OS, and non-free apps are fairly easy to pirate.
There's also this fact: even on iPhone, one can get hooked up quite nicely with all sorts of capabilities without dropping a ton of cash. Software is just not as big a barrier anymore. Apple has successfully hit the "reset" button on the value proposition. We are back to valuing the hardware platform, and we "expect" to get our software for minimal cost. This has to have Microsoft tearing its hair out... their entire business model has been effectively devalued because they let other companies move first and set the expectations.
Thompson
If Android is a terrible as you personally say it is, then why haven't people been jumping off in droves?
Well, the majority of users can't just jump off without breaking contract, so it's probably too early to hang your hat on that one.
Why are new Android phones being gobbled up faster than they can be produced?
Anecdotal evidence is suggesting that Android does best wherever the choice of iPhone carrier is limited, and in other places not so well. Don't know whether it's actually true, but it certainly is a plausible answer, and I guess we'll know better when two things happen:
(1) Apple DOES introduce iPhones on multiple carriers in the US, and
(2) Current Android users' contracts begin to expire and we see what they do about it.
Thompson
AT&T has the lamest selection of Android phones. It's like they went out of their way to hunt them down and line them up at AT&T. The Captivate is the only good phone they have and they gimped that one as well to prevent users from installing apps outside the Market.
Well now isn't it possible that the choice wasn't entirely AT&T's?
If I were Motorola, I'd definitely seek exclusive agreements with Verizon for all of my best smartphone models. This way, you keep the margins up (in return for exclusivity, a carrier will pay higher subsidy per phone) and focus your efforts on the market segment that's most likely to gobble up your products.
Thompson
Well now isn't it possible that the choice wasn't entirely AT&T's?
If I were Motorola, I'd definitely seek exclusive agreements with Verizon for all of my best smartphone models. This way, you keep the margins up (in return for exclusivity, a carrier will pay higher subsidy per phone) and focus your efforts on the market segment that's most likely to gobble up your products.
Thompson
Motorola's best Android phones do seem to be on Verizon, but HTC makes excellent Android phones and they have different top line models with T-Mobile, Sprint and Verizon. Sony Ericson has a decent Android phone. LG has some decent phones. It just seems like AT&T went to the bottom of the barrel with each vendor - except Samsung.
Although based on the AT&T exec who spoke at the mobile conference yesterday, it seems there may be some changes coming up. I only hope people haven't been buying Android phones (except Captivate) on AT&T, otherwise they'll continue with their mediocre offerings.
Well, that does raise an interesting question. Do they want the iPhone, or do they, now that they've realized they can produce Android feature phones that they fill with crapware and completely control the experience
Last summer Apple would have had Verizon bending over backwards agreeing to every possible term. I doubt that Apple will allow Verizon to ruin the iPhone experience. That's one thing Apple's done real well along with the ability to bypass the carrier for upgrades. But Verizon will make Apple give ground on other things. Android's success has all but ensured that.
Rooting the Samsung Fascinate is extremely simple and removing the stock apps is as well. You don't even need to install a custom ROM. But a mere fraction of Verizon's customers will do it. The rest will be stuck with Bing and Verizon's navigation.
Motorola's best Android phones do seem to be on Verizon, but HTC makes excellent Android phones and they have different top line models with T-Mobile, Sprint and Verizon. Sony Ericson has a decent Android phone. LG has some decent phones. It just seems like AT&T went to the bottom of the barrel with each vendor - except Samsung.
Although based on the AT&T exec who spoke at the mobile conference yesterday, it seems there may be some changes coming up. I only hope people haven't been buying Android phones (except Captivate) on AT&T, otherwise they'll continue with their mediocre offerings.
OK, so HTC's strategy seems to be one of broad market share as opposed to margin. And you're saying that HTC and AT&T haven't hooked up? I wonder what the hick-up is? (AT&T may not be everyone's favorite, but they probably don't just make business decisions arbitrarily.)
Thompson
And really none of this matters right now because Apple is selling as many as they can make. These are concerns to address after they have caught up with production. If it made a difference right now, we would probably see commercials addressing the antenna concerns. It seems like they are working to address the Verizon thing. That is a balancing act they must perform to keep subsidies up. If the phones cost $300-$400 instead of $200-$300 that would also change the number of people buying the phone. If Apple has managed to reduce their production costs so they can keep the $200-$300 price, then this is the perfect time to lose exclusivity. The other option is for Apple to try to set up a subsidy battle between Verizon and AT&T to try to draw people to their networks. If the iPhone were $300-$400 on Verizon and $200-$300 on AT&T, many people planning a switch to Verizon would reconsider unless AT&T offers poor service in their area.
You're right about the irrelevance of the antenna issue as long as Apple is making and shipping the maximum possible number of iPhones under any circumstances.
Note, however, that the iPhone sticker price for the consumer is going to be the same regardless of AT&T or Verizon. Competition will enforce that. If one lowers, the other will too.
The results of your (mostly correct) analysis is that the invisible subsidy paid from the carriers to Apple are going to become subjects of intense (behind the scenes) negotiation.
Thompson