Not everyone is going to cancel their contract in the first week.
Especially considering the well-publicized shortages of the iPhone 4 when it first came out.
If you have an iPhone 4 on AT&T, why get an iPhone 4 on Verizon right now. Makes zero sense even if you sell your phone for a good price then pay the ETF.
If you got a 3GS or older, maybe so.
We are looking at a little over four months until iPhone 5 hits most likely.
WWDC looks like it's around June 6 or so so we may see it there.
Maybe... stay with me now, but just maybe... many people know the iPhone 5 will be out in a hand full of months and would rather sign a new 2-year contract for a new phone rather than one that's almost a year old. (As I am and told my friends to do, wait for June)
Any analyst worth their salt should have known this would be the case. People buy the iPhone for the product. Not the carrier. The product is currently more than halfway through it's lifecycle.
No prospective buyer wants it now, save those with itchy trigger fingers and there will always be those.
The real uptick for verizon will be the the iPhone 5. Then there will be smiles all around. The reason it will be big is because it will be a true launch. New product. Not a 6 month old one. Who wants to be stuck in a contract with a device that is already old when you begin?
What verizon is seeing now is the result of smart people in a struggling economy waiting for the best possible time to purchase a NEW product with associated service.
Not surprised here. Verizon isn't offering incentives like AT&T had. Who is going to pay almost two hundred dollars for a phone, plus almost a four hundred dollar early termination fee. Verizon customers have to wait until their contracts expire. Same with AT&T people who want to switch. Further, people in the know who can afford to wait will wait until summer.
You really think in July Apple is going to leave money on the table because of concern about people who bought a phone back in February?
You have a very short memory. Back in 2007 they cut the price of the phone by $400, and ended up having to write a very large check to please the people who had already bought the phone. Same thing will happen again. I think Apple LOVES to have a release schedule that will allow them to have 2 large spikes in demand, half a year apart, rather than one EPIC spike in demand in summer.
Watch, it'll happen. Until the iPhone is 4G LTE, which won't happen this summer.
No my memory is good. I got one of those checks and used it to buy the iPhone 3G.
That is back when the iPhone was brand new and Apple wasn't so sure how well it would do. They cut the price because it was a monster hit. I don't understand how that relates to this situation at all.
I do not see the logic in staggering releases between AT&T and Verizon would result in two spikes. It just results in Verizon getting the same phone later, which would suck for them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj
You have a very short memory. Back in 2007 they cut the price of the phone by $400, and ended up having to write a very large check to please the people who had already bought the phone. Same thing will happen again. I think Apple LOVES to have a release schedule that will allow them to have 2 large spikes in demand, half a year apart, rather than one EPIC spike in demand in summer.
Watch, it'll happen. Until the iPhone is 4G LTE, which won't happen this summer.
iOS has more fragmentation than ever. TV/streaming device, music player, iphone, ipad, etc..... The Itunes Operating System started as a music player, and it's been a stretch to adapt it to all of these devices.
In fact, the more that apple releases products, the more iOS fragmentation they will have. Now with a different IP4 on VZW, iOS just got more fragmented.
Obviously many are holding out for the iPhone 5 which will probably support LTE. If I were looking at getting an iPhone on Verizon I'd wait till June/July too.
The next iPhone, the 5 will just be a stop-gap until the real thing - A true LTE - phone is released as the iPhone 6. Buyers who hold out for the 5 will have even more buyers remorse than the buyers of the 4 - who by then will be ready for a subsidized upgrade to the 6. In addition, the $30 Unlimited VZ Data Plan probably won't be available to those who hold out for the iPhone 5. So, they will be doubly hosed.
Not necessarily. The current LTE deployment is a stop-gap for LTE Advanced.
At this point HSPA+ can match and exceed Verizon's LTE deployment. That is the reason AT&T isn't too worried about LTE yet.
If AT&T's iPhone 5 has an HSPA+ radio that can achieve the maximum speed. It will be faster than LTE at this point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kenstee
The next iPhone, the 5 will just be a stop-gap until the real thing - A true LTE - phone is released as the iPhone 6. Buyers who hold out for the 5 will have even more buyers remorse than the buyers of the 4 - who by then will be ready for a subsidized upgrade to the 6. In addition, the $30 Unlimited VZ Data Plan probably won't be available to those who hold out for the iPhone 5. So, they will be doubly hosed.
I don't need the iPhone 5. I waited long enough for the VZW iPhone. And now that I have it, I'll be getting the iPhone 6 next year. Atleast it'll take full advantage of VZW's 4G LTE network!
Apple needs to get its house in order, or else revenue is going to slip 0.43%.
But it will slip 0.43% vs. what they would have made had it hit expectations but we have no idea what that number should be (since it is all growing so fast).
Damn, my precision AAPL model will be slightly wrong
Apple claimed they released the CDMA iPhone 4 because Verizon customers demanded it now and couldn't wait for the iPhone 5.
Looks like they were wrong.
Any halfwit can post on the internet - case in point above. How is "set a record in 2 hours" wrong? Or a million units in first week? Seriously, try to go back to sleep.
Retail store lines and sales may be below expectations, but is that because fewer people are buying the Verizon iPhone than expected OR is it because fewer people are buying it through retail outlets? By all accounts, it has been far easier to buy the iPhone on-line than it was last summer when the iPhone 4 came out on AT&T.
Until we hear from Apple I think it will be very hard to get an accurate picture of what's going on.
Unless we hear from Apple tomorrow, it is unlikely they have sold a million in the first week.
I think the point is that if Apple expected a massive amount of buyers (maybe not as much as an initial launch, but still a large number), then they failed. Hopefully this means they don't have an excess of inventory built up if weak sales are true
The rumor was that the initial CDMA build was for 2M units. Not really a problem as Apple will sell them as discounted devices once the next iPhone launches. Or they could get rid of them almost overnight by doing a deal with China Telecom.
Comments
Certainly the dominance was doomed. That happened last year as a matter of fact.
Not everyone is going to cancel their contract in the first week.
Especially considering the well-publicized shortages of the iPhone 4 when it first came out.
If you have an iPhone 4 on AT&T, why get an iPhone 4 on Verizon right now. Makes zero sense even if you sell your phone for a good price then pay the ETF.
If you got a 3GS or older, maybe so.
We are looking at a little over four months until iPhone 5 hits most likely.
WWDC looks like it's around June 6 or so so we may see it there.
I don't think there were many switchers yet.
This is a prime example of why Android is not a congruent platform.
Seriously? You are showing this as an example of fragmentation? Seriously?
But I can tell you from anecdotal experience, one of the main reasons four teenage family friends bought an Android was because of keyboards.
No prospective buyer wants it now, save those with itchy trigger fingers and there will always be those.
The real uptick for verizon will be the the iPhone 5. Then there will be smiles all around. The reason it will be big is because it will be a true launch. New product. Not a 6 month old one. Who wants to be stuck in a contract with a device that is already old when you begin?
What verizon is seeing now is the result of smart people in a struggling economy waiting for the best possible time to purchase a NEW product with associated service.
You really think in July Apple is going to leave money on the table because of concern about people who bought a phone back in February?
You have a very short memory. Back in 2007 they cut the price of the phone by $400, and ended up having to write a very large check to please the people who had already bought the phone. Same thing will happen again. I think Apple LOVES to have a release schedule that will allow them to have 2 large spikes in demand, half a year apart, rather than one EPIC spike in demand in summer.
Watch, it'll happen. Until the iPhone is 4G LTE, which won't happen this summer.
The only thing Apple has made any attempt to dominate is its own platform. They never had any intention of dominating the mobile market in general.
Exactly. And, dominance for the sake of dominance is not a value-creating strategy. Android is welcome to its profitless domination......
That is back when the iPhone was brand new and Apple wasn't so sure how well it would do. They cut the price because it was a monster hit. I don't understand how that relates to this situation at all.
I do not see the logic in staggering releases between AT&T and Verizon would result in two spikes. It just results in Verizon getting the same phone later, which would suck for them.
You have a very short memory. Back in 2007 they cut the price of the phone by $400, and ended up having to write a very large check to please the people who had already bought the phone. Same thing will happen again. I think Apple LOVES to have a release schedule that will allow them to have 2 large spikes in demand, half a year apart, rather than one EPIC spike in demand in summer.
Watch, it'll happen. Until the iPhone is 4G LTE, which won't happen this summer.
I love it when people try this game.
iOS has more fragmentation than ever. TV/streaming device, music player, iphone, ipad, etc..... The Itunes Operating System started as a music player, and it's been a stretch to adapt it to all of these devices.
In fact, the more that apple releases products, the more iOS fragmentation they will have. Now with a different IP4 on VZW, iOS just got more fragmented.
wtf is Itunes Operating System?
At this point HSPA+ can match and exceed Verizon's LTE deployment. That is the reason AT&T isn't too worried about LTE yet.
If AT&T's iPhone 5 has an HSPA+ radio that can achieve the maximum speed. It will be faster than LTE at this point.
The next iPhone, the 5 will just be a stop-gap until the real thing - A true LTE - phone is released as the iPhone 6. Buyers who hold out for the 5 will have even more buyers remorse than the buyers of the 4 - who by then will be ready for a subsidized upgrade to the 6. In addition, the $30 Unlimited VZ Data Plan probably won't be available to those who hold out for the iPhone 5. So, they will be doubly hosed.
Apple needs to get its house in order, or else revenue is going to slip 0.43%.
But it will slip 0.43% vs. what they would have made had it hit expectations but we have no idea what that number should be (since it is all growing so fast).
Damn, my precision AAPL model will be slightly wrong
Apple claimed they released the CDMA iPhone 4 because Verizon customers demanded it now and couldn't wait for the iPhone 5.
Looks like they were wrong.
Any halfwit can post on the internet - case in point above. How is "set a record in 2 hours" wrong? Or a million units in first week? Seriously, try to go back to sleep.
Retail store lines and sales may be below expectations, but is that because fewer people are buying the Verizon iPhone than expected OR is it because fewer people are buying it through retail outlets? By all accounts, it has been far easier to buy the iPhone on-line than it was last summer when the iPhone 4 came out on AT&T.
Until we hear from Apple I think it will be very hard to get an accurate picture of what's going on.
Unless we hear from Apple tomorrow, it is unlikely they have sold a million in the first week.
I think the point is that if Apple expected a massive amount of buyers (maybe not as much as an initial launch, but still a large number), then they failed. Hopefully this means they don't have an excess of inventory built up if weak sales are true
The rumor was that the initial CDMA build was for 2M units. Not really a problem as Apple will sell them as discounted devices once the next iPhone launches. Or they could get rid of them almost overnight by doing a deal with China Telecom.