Microsoft reports quarterly revenues, earnings below Apple

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  • Reply 61 of 143
    mrstepmrstep Posts: 542member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post


    I resent the implication.



    As well you should.



    Stay thirsty, my friend.
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  • Reply 62 of 143
    paul94544paul94544 Posts: 1,027member
    As long as Microsft fails to understand the most crucial point about its failing business model it is destined to slowly fail over time.



    The point is that its core profit and revenue centers are being squeezed from two sides. Its not obvious yet. that is why the MS fan boys can't see the trend. The two forces squeezing it are mobile from the low end (Apple, HP's coming mobile/always connected OS etc) and the busines side the Virtualization /business rationalization). It thinks that as long as its market share of the desktop remains dominant it will remain profitable. But the desktop is becoming marginalized. Once the down trend starts (it started this year) it will be very quick and steep. I see some time in the next 2-4 years a serious drop in revenue for Office/Windows divisions, followed immediately by a 50-70% drop in share price over a few months. Once that starts it will accelerate as many companies see the obvious and decide to drop MS products in increasing numbers. Many fortune 500 companies are starting the initial phases of figuring out how to moce applicatiosn off of the desktop onto virtual servers so fro example rather than having 1000's of installed instances of MS Office and the massive resources neede to manage that inftastructure. They are planning to execute instances of whatever MS program on a remote server. This means a massive drop in revenue for microsoft as companies renegoatiate their licensing models with MS. Once this tech starts to mature the offcie of the future will consist for the main part of dumb low powered PC type devices, basically very slim flat panels, maybe even a tablet type interface with basic networking connected to powerfil server farm , sometimes in the cloud contracted out to highly efficient providers on a service type basis. The fee structure will shift back to a how much procesing you use model. It will take a while but it is inevitable. I see MS as a great Stock to short in a couple of years. Balmer will be fired and a new management team will be put in place to restructure MS and restore it to some semblance of order. MS will remain around as shell of its former self and will go into directions which are very pedestrian and profitable. Very similar to IBM. That will be the point to stop shorting and invest again.



    Just watch



    The argument that windows foks trot out every time

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by kerryb View Post


    Every three years you hang some new curtains on the same old windows, every computer that is not a Mac needs its (sorry Linix hard to get a PC without Windows shipped on it) and then copy the software onto a million CD's and make a killing. Not the same thing as developing, merchandising new products each quarter and throw in a product platform that didn't exist the prior year (iPad).



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  • Reply 63 of 143
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,717member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by muppetry View Post


    There have been some publications that dispute the link between computer use / typing and the condition itself, which is undoubtedly real.



    For example, from The Journal of hand surgery 33 (7): 1076–80



    Disparity between popular (Internet) and scientific illness concepts of carpal tunnel syndrome causation.



    Scangas G, Lozano-Calderón S, Ring D.

    Massachusetts General Hospital, Hand and Upper Extremity Service, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Boston, MA 02114, USA.



    Abstract



    PURPOSE:

    To determine whether there are notable disparities between popular (Internet) and scientific (Index Medicus) theories of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) causation.



    METHODS:

    Reports from 3 sources were evaluated with regard to support for etiological theories of CTS: 1) patient-oriented information on CTS from the Internet, 2) recent physician-oriented information on CTS from medical journals indexed on Index Medicus, and 3) articles addressing the etiology of CTS from the 1997 National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health report. Multiple logistic regression analyses evaluated differences in etiological theories from the 3 sources.



    RESULTS:

    Internet sites implicated vitamin B(6) deficiency, tenosynovitis, and typing or computer use as causes for idiopathic CTS considerably more often and genetic predisposition considerably less often than recent Index Medicus scientific reports and reports reviewed by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.



    CONCLUSIONS:

    There are notable disparities between popular (Internet) and scientific (Index Medicus) theories of CTS causation.



    That doesn't say much of anything. I'm not interested in what Internet sites say about medical problems any more than I agree with Prevention Magazine, which is mostly crap, or Psychology Today, or any publications of that ilk.



    The point is that CTS is real. You can get it from many kinds of work. Sitting in front of a computer with a bad keyboard at the wrong height and angle, where you take few breaks, can give this to people. I got it from working with Photoshop and associated programs, using a 12" x 18" Wacom tablet, a trackball, and keyboard. I know of others who had the same problem.



    This is well documented. It doesn't mean that popular belief about what this is is entirely correct, as popular beliefs are rarely completely correct, or sometimes, correct at all.



    But many illnesses are not believed to be true for many years, until newer research proves them to be, such as restless leg syndrome, chronic fatigue syndrome, and others. Ignorant people, and that includes people with advanced degrees in the subject, often deride these problems until they are proven wrong.
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  • Reply 64 of 143
    mrstepmrstep Posts: 542member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Unfortunately, all third world countries, and some that are no so third world, rely on child labor. The mantra for thousands of years has been that everyone who can support the family, does so. Only when countries get a big enough, and rich enough middle class, do their attitudes change.



    I don't think that we have the right to tell everyone else that what we do is always going to be best for them. That's amazingly arrogant.



    And let's face it, children pick the beans more gently so that my espresso tastes better.



    No, seriously, you're right though. 'Send those kids to school' doesn't always work when that would equate to them not eating because their families don't have enough money. Unfortunately for them, many places have lots of impoverished kids being born, whether for cultural (agri-cultural), religious, or lack-of-contraceptives-in-general reasons.



    When you look at how many places have kids working dangerous jobs, or even have parents selling the kids into prostitution / slavery, I suspect the ones that end up picking some beans may be among the ones that are better off - at least they're eating. So before someone berates a coffee drinker next time, maybe they should ask themselves what they did to put food in that kids stomach today, unless they're arguing that starvation is better.
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  • Reply 65 of 143
    majjomajjo Posts: 574member
    There is no doubt that Apple's resurgence has been nothing short of amazing, and beating MS in revenue and profits is a huge milestone for them.



    But to say MS is destined to failure because of Apple's performance is just not true.



    Most people point to the post-PC era as evidence of MS' doomed future, but post-PC does not mean no-PC. PC sales are still growing; yes, mobile devices have retarded that growth somewhat, but the PC market is still orders of magnitude larger than the tablet or the smartphone.



    MS also has a stranglehold in the business world, and I doubt this is changing anytime soon either:



    Office is still the standard productivity suite, and that's going to change for a long time

    Last I checked Windows Server is the dominant server OS with ~70% marketshare

    Exchange is the standard for e-mail

    Visual Studio is still the most used IDE in the world
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  • Reply 66 of 143
    muppetrymuppetry Posts: 3,331member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    That doesn't say much of anything. I'm not interested in what Internet sites say about medical problems any more than I agree with Prevention Magazine, which is mostly crap, or Psychology Today, or any publications of that ilk.



    The point is that CTS is real. You can get it from many kinds of work. Sitting in front of a computer with a bad keyboard at the wrong height and angle, where you take few breaks, can give this to people. I got it from working with Photoshop and associated programs, using a 12" x 18" Wacom tablet, a trackball, and keyboard. I know of others who had the same problem.



    This is well documented. It doesn't mean that popular belief about what this is is entirely correct, as popular beliefs are rarely completely correct, or sometimes, correct at all.



    But many illnesses are not believed to be true for many years, until newer research proves them to be, such as restless leg syndrome, chronic fatigue syndrome, and others. Ignorant people, and that includes people with advanced degrees in the subject, often deride these problems until they are proven wrong.



    I think you may have misread the abstract. Anyway, I'm not arguing the case either way - just pointing out that there have been scientific studies published in reputable peer-reviewed journals that support the view that computer use has been over-attributed as the cause of CTS.
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  • Reply 67 of 143
    Talk about child labour. I grew up and lived most of my life in a small Indian city. You know what reaction the working class has when politicians try to enforce child labour laws. They scorn at them, because their children will not be able to bring home some extra dough. And most teenagers in not so well-to-do families work even when they are going to school.



    It really is not so black and white.
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  • Reply 68 of 143
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mrstep View Post


    So before someone berates a coffee drinker next time, maybe they should ask themselves what they did to put food in that kids stomach today, unless they're arguing that starvation is better.



    You could make a difference in other ways than buying the coffee. You could visit Coffeekids.org and make a donation. While you are there you could educate yourself about the issue.
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  • Reply 69 of 143
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,717member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mrstep View Post


    And let's face it, children pick the beans more gently so that my espresso tastes better.



    No, seriously, you're right though. 'Send those kids to school' doesn't always work when that would equate to them not eating because their families don't have enough money. Unfortunately for them, many places have lots of impoverished kids being born, whether for cultural (agri-cultural), religious, or lack-of-contraceptives-in-general reasons.



    When you look at how many places have kids working dangerous jobs, or even have parents selling the kids into prostitution / slavery, I suspect the ones that end up picking some beans may be among the ones that are better off - at least they're eating. So before someone berates a coffee drinker next time, maybe they should ask themselves what they did to put food in that kids stomach today, unless they're arguing that starvation is better.



    And people in poorer countries have bigger families as well. Unfortunately, many children died when very young, which means they didn't get to support the family, which is the ONLY purpose children have in these countries. And it goes on for centuries. The problem is that now, even in many of the poorest countries, medical care, though not great, is often good enough to create an imbalance between why people have large families, and the realities of the more modern world, which is that because they don't of any other way to do it, they continue having large families, even though more of their kids grow up now.



    This creates an overabundance of labor, which means that even if these people could send their children to school for more than a few years, they have even more mouths to feed, and so they need everyone to work.



    The mistake about China, is that while it's true that adults move to the cities in search for factory work, children still work in the rural areas, which still makes up the large majority of the Chinese population. So while there is a labor shortage in the factory towns, there is no shortage in the villages where children are still being used. In fact, this migration makes child labor in China even more important.
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  • Reply 70 of 143
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,717member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by muppetry View Post


    I think you may have misread the abstract. Anyway, I'm not arguing the case either way - just pointing out that there have been scientific studies published in reputable peer-reviewed journals that support the view that computer use has been over-attributed as the cause of CTS.



    If someone says that computer use is the major cause of CTS, then I would agree that that is wrong. But it certainly is A cause.
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  • Reply 71 of 143
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    You're oversimplifying. Since when don't parents make their children do anything? You think that going to school in these countries makes much of a difference? It doesn't. There are few jobs available for more educated people. But these children do get to learn how to read and write in most instances, except perhaps for those living well out of the way in small groups.



    I am not over simplifying the issue and I know first hand of which I speak. Although I can only tell about Central America because I visit the region every year and I am personally involved with trying improve this problem, I could go on for days about this subject but this not the right thread to elaborate any more than I have already. But based on your remarks above it is pretty clear to me that you do not have any first hand knowledge of the subject.
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  • Reply 72 of 143
    ash471ash471 Posts: 705member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post


    Coffee produced using child labor isn't necessarily evil, for example on a small family owned finca it would be quite normal for the children to be involved in the picking and processing. There's still plenty of child labor going on on farms and orchards in this country (U.S.).



    Besides, I thought big green bought triage coffee?



    I agree with anonymouse. I am one of those people that has done child labor in the U.S. I grew up on a farm and started moving irrigation pipe when I was 8. My dad paid me .10 a pipe and I loved it. He took me to the bank to open an account when I was under 10 and I socked away $30 and was proud of it (after a whole summer of work). Those 10 years of child labor were some of the best of my life.



    Americans need a reality check. The kids committing suicide and taking antidepressants aren't the ones out working at age 8. Unless you worked as a child, don't knock it. You don't have an F'ing clue what makes people happy.
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  • Reply 73 of 143
    djmikeodjmikeo Posts: 180member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Patranus View Post


    Steve Jobs should send Mr. Gates a thank you note for that 400 million dollar loan



    Actually, it should be the other way around. Microsoft announced that they would make a $150 million INVESTMENT on August, 6th 1997. On that date, Apple's stock was worth $6.58, so Microsoft had received about 22,796,352 shares. Apple's stock did a 2:1 split in February 2005 so assuming they still own the stock, they now have almost 45.6 million shares. At today's closing price of $346.75, that means Microsoft would have over $15.8 BILLION in Apple Stock.



    So Mr. Gate, please tell Steve Jobs "Thank You"



    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Apple_Inc.
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  • Reply 74 of 143
    ash471ash471 Posts: 705member
    Just to clarify, I don't believe in child labor that is abusive or that prevents a child from getting an education. However, I think all children would benefit physically and mentally from doing a lot more physical labor for pay. Of course, as a shareholder of Apple, maybe I shouldn't care if they spend all day stroking their iPod touch instead.
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  • Reply 75 of 143
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by macslut View Post


    Future milestones:

    OS X market share is higher than Windows.



    I don?t see how that is possible. If you switch HP and and Mac?s worldwide ?PC? position for ?PC?s with desktop OSes you only get around 17% of the market. While that would about 75% of the world?s ?PC? profits, by my estimation, it?s still 83% not running Mac OS, which means near that for MS? Windows.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post


    Right. This is the company that killed the Courier and went back to the only play they know: "Windows on tablets". Good to see they're moving in the right direction: backwards.



    The courier never existed.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mrstep View Post


    And let's face it, children pick the beans more gently so that my espresso tastes better.



    The saline in their innocent tears make the roasting process really bring out the flavour.



    Seriously though, I have never heard about child slave labour actively being used by Starbucks.
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  • Reply 76 of 143
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by neiltc13 View Post


    Microsoft is still doing very well. They're making the best products they ever have done, such as:



    - Zune desktop software

    - Zune hardware and mobile software

    - Windows Phone 7



    Wait, what???



    You forgot Kin
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  • Reply 77 of 143
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,717member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mstone View Post


    I am not over simplifying the issue and I know first hand of which I speak. Although I can only tell about Central America because I visit the region every year and I am personally involved with trying improve this problem, I could go on for days about this subject but this not the right thread to elaborate any more than I have already. But based on your remarks above it is pretty clear to me that you do not have any first hand knowledge of the subject.



    I don't have to be there to understand the condition. And you can be there and not understand the condition.
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  • Reply 78 of 143
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,717member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by djmikeo View Post


    Actually, it should be the other way around. Microsoft announced that they would make a $150 million INVESTMENT on August, 6th 1997. On that date, Apple's stock was worth $6.58, so Microsoft had received about 22,796,352 shares. Apple's stock did a 2:1 split in February 2005 so assuming they still own the stock, they now have almost 45.6 million shares. At today's closing price of $346.75, that means Microsoft would have over $15.8 BILLION in Apple Stock.



    So Mr. Gate, please tell Steve Jobs "Thank You"



    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Apple_Inc.



    They were forced by Apple to make that investment, and they sold it a long time ago.
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  • Reply 79 of 143
    brucepbrucep Posts: 2,823member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mstone View Post


    To each his own.



    I don't drink coffee that was produced using child labor either, but most people don't have time or interest to even find out where the big green machine gets there supply from.



    agreed
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  • Reply 80 of 143
    ash471ash471 Posts: 705member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mstone View Post


    I am not over simplifying the issue and I know first hand of which I speak. Although I can only tell about Central America because I visit the region every year and I am personally involved with trying improve this problem, I could go on for days about this subject but this not the right thread to elaborate any more than I have already. But based on your remarks above it is pretty clear to me that you do not have any first hand knowledge of the subject.



    Did YOU do the child labor? If not, it isn't first hand. The problem is, people go to poor countries and they mistake the difference in the standard of living for poor working conditions. I have lived in Costa Rica and Mexico (amongst ordinary people). When I was in Mexico I was there long enough to forget what it was like living in the US. After a while you just don't think about or care about the fact that you have to walk everywhere, that you don't have central air conditioning or heating, or that you have to wash your cloths using a rock slab out the back door. I now make more money in one month than many Mexicans make in a half a decade or so and I assure you they enjoy life more than I do. Unless you've immersed yourself in a different society it is hard to understand this principle. Most of them do not care that they are poor because they don't know any different. Most Americans are puzzled when a Hollywood star commits suicide. It is the same principle....what you see is not their reality.

    I'm sure there are some child labor issues out there. But I think it is a very very small percentage of the world. I suspect that most of the "suffering" is an American's misinterpretation of poverty = unhappiness. If you ask me, Americans need to figure out that maintaining wealth often = unhappiness.
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