Wall Street expects iCloud to drive sales of Apple's iOS devices

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 67
    wovelwovel Posts: 956member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by PersonMan View Post


    Um, correct me if I'm wrong, but AAPL stock ALMOST ALWAYS drops a bit after a keynote. I don't think this is a reaction to the content of the keynote.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post


    I agree -- I have no interest in streaming. Why would I want to spend a lot of $$ on expensive bandwidth to stream music over 3G when portable storage is (relatively) much cheaper?



    AAPL leaves in the real world where carriers charge for data usage. Google and Amazon do not. The music service Apple offers is so much better then what either of the other two rushed to market when they caught wind of Apple's plans. It is the difference between a well planned service and something put together overnight.



    We expect it from google, it is sad to see Amazon falling into that trap.
  • Reply 22 of 67
    jexusjexus Posts: 373member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Wovel View Post


    AAPL lives in the real world where carriers charge for data usage. Google and Amazon do not. The music service Apple offers is so much better then what either of the other two rushed to market when they caught wind of Apple's plans. It is the difference between a well planned service and something put together overnight.



    We expect it from google, it is sad to see Amazon falling into that trap.



    *lives error* fixed



    Anyway your answer does not address his question.



    Why should he be paying for a service that is reliant on airwaves that can be known to have penetration issues, or limited range when he can simply find a simple physical storage medium for a one time purchase?



    You can find a 32GB SD card for as low as $40 nowadays and it isn't depended on the internet to provide it's function.
  • Reply 23 of 67
    hal 9000hal 9000 Posts: 101member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by PersonMan View Post


    Um, correct me if I'm wrong, but AAPL stock ALMOST ALWAYS drops a bit after a keynote. I don't think this is a reaction to the content of the keynote.



    Wait a minute: the stock tanked 10 dollars during and after the conference. Clearly the announcements caused a yawn. let´s face it: it looks like real nice tweaks here and there, but there was no game changer. Only us Mac centric people understand the value of the product. Reminds me of the late 90´s: great products and minimal market response.



    On another note: the current stock price is evidence that the market has not factored in the fact that there is an interim team running Apple.
  • Reply 24 of 67
    addicted44addicted44 Posts: 826member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Wovel View Post


    AAPL leaves in the real world where carriers charge for data usage. Google and Amazon do not. The music service Apple offers is so much better then what either of the other two rushed to market when they caught wind of Apple's plans. It is the difference between a well planned service and something put together overnight.



    We expect it from google, it is sad to see Amazon falling into that trap.



    +++



    Why would you want to perpetually stream music is beyond me. Hard Drive space (or rather, Flash space) is FAR CHEAPER than streaming (and far, far more accessible).



    Apple has taken the best of both worlds mid road option here. If you do want to access a song not currently with you, it will be available on the cloud. And its a download, so if you want to listen to it twice, you don't have to "stream" (fancy word for download) it twice.



    Over the next 5 years, which of the following 2 are more plausible:

    1) Flash memory capacity increases over tenfold for the same price

    2) Carrier streaming bandwidth limits, and speeds, increase over tenfold at the same price (not even considering China/India, which have terribly expensive carrier data plans.)



    The answer to this question should explain what the better forward looking choice is.
  • Reply 25 of 67
    prof. peabodyprof. peabody Posts: 2,860member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by PersonMan View Post


    Um, correct me if I'm wrong, but AAPL stock ALMOST ALWAYS drops a bit after a keynote. I don't think this is a reaction to the content of the keynote.



    Also, *all* stock always "drops on news" (even good news). It's a well known phenomenon, but one that's generally ignored by analysts when they wish to intimate that the loss might actually be from another cause. The truth is, they don't know why the stock goes up or down a lot of the time and they are mostly just guessing.
  • Reply 26 of 67
    prof. peabodyprof. peabody Posts: 2,860member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Wovel View Post


    AAPL leaves in the real world where carriers charge for data usage. Google and Amazon do not. The music service Apple offers is so much better then what either of the other two rushed to market when they caught wind of Apple's plans. It is the difference between a well planned service and something put together overnight.



    We expect it from google, it is sad to see Amazon falling into that trap.



    I think Apple still has some 'splainin" to do about their services because it seems to me that they *do* have streaming anyway (unless I'm just looking at it wrong).



    If all the music you ever purchased is on a list on your phone, and touching one of the items makes it come streaming down to your phone, how is that not the same thing?



    And once the match service starts up, it specifically states that songs that aren't matched "will be uploaded" (if you buy into the service). That means that if you pay the fee, there is a cloud of all your music that can be streamed to anywhere anytime on any device. So the 25 dollar a month thing actually *is* streaming, and is a cheaper, more reliable, and more flexible streaming option than Amazon or Google's.
  • Reply 27 of 67
    techmanmiketechmanmike Posts: 147member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Elastic Reason View Post


    I'm not sure analysts see the implications for small business.



    Its generally assumed that the business market is, and always will be, lost to the Mac platform, but this new ecosystem makes the Mac platform extremely attractive to small business < 50 users. Particularly those that want to dump the cost of Microsoft's exchange and server platform. Frankly, iWork is a reasonable replacement for office, and the back to may mac and other sharing features embedded in the new cloud service make this even more feature rich for small business. I foresee that users that grew up on iPods may be more likely to embrace the Apple experience in the work place due to perceived usability and low cost of ownership.



    I'm a small business owner and I agree that having an entire Apple ecosystem is so helpful! Switching our business over from the windows world to an apple world has sent productivity through the roof! I'm looking forward to iCloud and iOS 5.
  • Reply 28 of 67
    sol77sol77 Posts: 203member
    "Analyst Alex Gauna is less bullish about AAPL stock than others on Wall Street, and he came away unimpressed with Monday's keynote, declaring it "cloudier, with less lightning bolts, than normal." He also said the presentation had "no real surprises," and was merely an evolutionary step for Apple."







    What's "mere" about an "evolutionary step"? Primate...Human. So...he wanted "lightning bolts", "surprises", and something other than an evolutionary step. Interesting. Maybe a fan of Michael Bay movies?



    Brian: "Do you even hear yourself when you talk?"

    Peter Griffin: "I drift in and out."
  • Reply 29 of 67
    applezillaapplezilla Posts: 941member
    No kidding, Wall Street. Meanwhile those same 'geniuses' are back to destroying our economy with not even a slap on the wrist.
  • Reply 30 of 67
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post


    Wasn't that guy who predicted the end of the world a former Goldman-Sachs Securities Broker?



    I have wondered for YEARS why Apple stock goes DOWN after a KeyNote and or quarterly report in which they report all time high records for unit sales and iTunes sales and customer numbers and profit margin etc. Reports that from ANY other company on the planet would cause the stock prices to increase - but no - the hype and speculation and expectations placed on Apple are so high - that anything short of stunningly spectacular is seen as a disappointment - and merely impressive and ahead of the industry as a whole is seen as problematic.



    AAPL has been substantially underperforming the markets for the last 6-9 months. The price targets from the analysts in the $450 range are beginning to look like a sick joke and the ones in the $500-600 range appear to be the result of pharmaceutical abuse.
  • Reply 31 of 67
    I believe the cloud system is brilliant! I see it going beyond the ipod, iphone, ipad. I think we will see a whole new generation of computers pioneered by apple in the next couple of years.. It is not the dead of the PC as many even apple fans predict, it is the start of a new generation of PCs.. I am salivating here..



    George
  • Reply 32 of 67
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hittrj01 View Post


    Isn't this kind of the point? Build up even more of an ecosystem to attract sales to your devices and guarantee repeat sales to existing customers?



    Someone needs to tell these analysts that making common sense statements does not make them smart.



    Yep. The software drives the hardware sales (which is where the money is).



    Someone also needs to tell them to stop with the comments about Jobs physical appearance etc. The man had pancreatic cancer and a liver transplant. There's no 'full recovery' from that. Also, harping on Jobs just continues the attitude that Jobs = Apple. And he doesn't. They have done fine with him in his semi retirement these past few months and will continue to if (as I suspect) he never actually returns from his medical leave and instead turns over the reigns to Cook permanently while taking a new role as member of the board and active consultant (unlike Woz who is apparently listed as a consultant and does no actual work)



    Personally the only thing I was dismayed about was no mention of any upgrade (paid of course) about 5 GB of space, in idisk type feature and nothing about iweb etc. I know a lot of folks that use that stuff and it would be nice to see it addressed. It would also be nice to see them taking on Blogger, Wordpress etc with functionality more like that (fully customizable templates, imbed HTML without the iframe junk, keywording/searching, HTML5) and even perhaps an iWeb for iOS that allows for writing and uploading blog entries from your device. They could even perhaps seamlessly work in your photostream, Ping etc.
  • Reply 33 of 67
    sol77sol77 Posts: 203member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by procapital View Post


    I believe the cloud system is brilliant! I see it going beyond the ipod, iphone, ipad. I think we will see a whole new generation of computers pioneered by apple in the next couple of years.. It is not the dead of the PC as many even apple fans predict, it is the start of a new generation of PCs.. I am salivating here..



    George











    Yep. Here it comes.
  • Reply 34 of 67
    robin huberrobin huber Posts: 3,608member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post


    Wasn't that guy who predicted the end of the world a former Goldman-Sachs Securities Broker?



    I have wondered for YEARS why Apple stock goes DOWN after a KeyNote and or quarterly report in which they report all time high records for unit sales and iTunes sales and customer numbers and profit margin etc. Reports that from ANY other company on the planet would cause the stock prices to increase - but no - the hype and speculation and expectations placed on Apple are so high - that anything short of stunningly spectacular is seen as a disappointment - and merely impressive and ahead of the industry as a whole is seen as problematic.



    I can think of two reasons why AAPL drops after big announcements.



    1) Because it nearly always runs up in anticipation, and short term traders take their profit at 10:00AM.



    2) Because Speed Trading companies program their computers to sense a quick buck on any kind of volatility--one being the kind that the run up and sell off above generates.
  • Reply 35 of 67
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by PersonMan View Post


    Um, correct me if I'm wrong, but AAPL stock ALMOST ALWAYS drops a bit after a keynote. I don't think this is a reaction to the content of the keynote.



    There's always a buck or two but this was a bit bigger.



    A lot of folks believe it is because people were certain, despite the hints from Apple, that they were going to whip out new iphone hardware.



    Which just shows that they weren't paying attention to the hints or that little incident in Japan and the unimportant detail that said country produces many of the components for everything, including iphones.
  • Reply 36 of 67
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


    There's always a buck or two but this was a bit bigger.



    A lot of folks believe it is because people were certain, despite the hints from Apple, that they were going to whip out new iphone hardware.



    Which just shows that they weren't paying attention to the hints or that little incident in Japan and the unimportant detail that said country produces many of the components for everything, including iphones.



    This kind of analysis isn't very enlightening. The only comparison that really matters is performance against broader market indexes. By these measurements, AAPL is in very bad shape as an investment and has been for more than six months now.
  • Reply 37 of 67
    zoetmbzoetmb Posts: 2,618member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


    There's always a buck or two but this was a bit bigger.



    A lot of folks believe it is because people were certain, despite the hints from Apple, that they were going to whip out new iphone hardware.



    Which just shows that they weren't paying attention to the hints or that little incident in Japan and the unimportant detail that said country produces many of the components for everything, including iphones.



    IMO, the analysts don't get it (in spite of their high price projections for the stock). I just saw a TV report which obsessed over the fact that no new iPhone was announced, even though it was well known that there wasn't going to be one. That would only matter if iPhone (or iPad) sales were in decline, but they're not. Apple has far out-performed every other tech company in the worst economic environment in 80 years. What more do they want?



    While I will only personally use a small percentage of what was shown yesterday, Apple demonstrated once again in the enhancements and new functionalities that it is staying many steps ahead of the competition. The competition is still playing catch-up to Apple's look and feel and here Apple is moving far ahead yet again. In practice, the promise of being able to have the same songs on all devices auto synched is no big deal to me - I don't add music that often. But the simplicity of such wireless synching is a big deal and along with the other enhancements will IMO encourage multiple device sales.



    My assumption based on the rumors is that the iPhone 5 will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary, so in spite of high sales, I would actually expect a stock price drop in the Fall when it's released. I would expect somewhat bigger changes for the next iPad. But I don't see Apple launching another completely new hardware product category in the next 2-3 years and this seems to disappoint the analysts who now expect Apple to do something revolutionary every year.



    What I saw yesterday was Apple constantly thinking about improving the customer experience and providing those improvements at little or no cost. While the analysts see that as no new revenue streams, I see that as a company that's looking at those improvements to drive additional sales from current customers and new sales from PC converts. I don't see anyone else making those kinds of strides.
  • Reply 38 of 67
    zoetmbzoetmb Posts: 2,618member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post


    This kind of analysis isn't very enlightening. The only comparison that really matters is performance against broader market indexes. By these measurements, AAPL is in very bad shape as an investment and has been for more than six months now.



    The broader indexes are up 34% in the last year? Because Apple stock is, right?
  • Reply 39 of 67
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by zoetmb View Post


    IMO, the analysts don't get it (in spite of their high price projections for the stock). I just saw a TV report which obsessed over the fact that no new iPhone was announced, even though it was well known that there wasn't going to be one. That would only matter if iPhone (or iPad) sales were in decline, but they're not. Apple has far out-performed every other tech company in the worst economic environment in 80 years. What more do they want?



    While I will only personally use a small percentage of what was shown yesterday, Apple demonstrated once again in the enhancements and new functionalities that it is staying many steps ahead of the competition. The competition is still playing catch-up to Apple's look and feel and here Apple is moving far ahead yet again. In practice, the promise of being able to have the same songs on all devices auto synched is no big deal to me - I don't add music that often. But the simplicity of such wireless synching is a big deal and along with the other enhancements will IMO encourage multiple device sales.



    My assumption based on the rumors is that the iPhone 5 will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary, so in spite of high sales, I would actually expect a stock price drop in the Fall when it's released. I would expect somewhat bigger changes for the next iPad. But I don't see Apple launching another completely new hardware product category in the next 2-3 years and this seems to disappoint the analysts who now expect Apple to do something revolutionary every year.



    What I saw yesterday was Apple constantly thinking about improving the customer experience and providing those improvements at little or no cost. While the analysts see that as no new revenue streams, I see that as a company that's looking at those improvements to drive additional sales from current customers and new sales from PC converts. I don't see anyone else making those kinds of strides.



    The analysts don't get it because they are forecasting stock performance that has virtually no chance of occurring unless the market perception of AAPL changes radically for the better. Since the breakdown in optimism for the stock has been proceeding steadily for the last 6-9 months now, I think it would be helpful to any AAPL bull's argument at this point to show what event or events will change that perception, rather than just tell us that the bullish analysts aren't bullish enough.



    As for Apple "improving the customer experience and providing those improvements at little or no cost," this latest transition will probably be the most costly and disruptive of my entire experience with Apple, which goes back to 1984. Even the transitions from 68k to PPC and PPC to Intel, were handled more adroitly. And they were far more substantial and complex.
  • Reply 40 of 67
    paxmanpaxman Posts: 4,705member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BigMac2 View Post


    I getting tired of disappointing comment we always get after WWDC. It's most of the time the same comments: No hardware announcement, boring OS demo, too much technical stuff. For god sake I think people and general media just forget about what the WWDC is really about. People tend to associate WWDC Keynote to old MacWorld Keynote which is not.



    For everyone who is disappointed by WWDC announcement keep in mind this event is mean for developer only, the event is made for get developer in touch with new Apple software making sure they will be ready for Apple new OS in the next few months.



    People are always disappointed after a big Apple event. That is, people HERE are always disappointed. People out in the real world don't really know what to expect and so have no reason to be disappointed. The problem is a complete lack of expectation management. A lot of people here get carried away dreaming up the next big thing Apple, in their view, MUST do. Being Apple fans they should know by now 'it' will never happen.

    But what did happen was that we were shown Lion (again). I for one thinks it promises great things. We saw IOS 5 which also looks good. The present IOS is pretty good and there was no way anybody was going to be completely Wowed. Its all incremental from now on. For both of these OS's the beauty (and devil) will no doubt be in the details.



    As far as iCloud goes its impact will be seen a year from now and it will depend on how well Apple manages to implement all these new services. (Apple doesn't have a great track record in this area.) But assuming it goes well, the strategy is brilliant imo. Managing multiple devices is already complicated. Millions of people/families with no technical skills own many devices and a simple (and free) method of managing all sorts of content across many devices will be very handy, indeed. If you already have a couple of iphones and possibly an iPad and you are planning on buying a computer, the choice makes itself. Once you're in it will be very hard to leave, which clearly is Apple's aim.



    I also think there is a lot we don't know about iCloud and it has lots of potential for the future. I am still half thinking there is a IOS powered merged TimeCapsule / Home Server to come. But what I really wonder about is how I will manage multiple AppleID's (and content) across multiple devices. Will I be able to sync different content under one ID to multiple devices? My hope is that in the future I will be able to purchase under a family account and let the members of that account manage their own shared content.
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