IDC bumps 2011 tablet forecast to 53M as Apple?s iPad 2 dominates

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 84
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    So many people keep repeating the fallacy that the release of iPad 2 slowed the sales of iPad in Q1. The facts do not back that up. The official announcement of iPad 2 was March 2. It became available on March 11. By March, iPad sales was already soft compared to Christmas season. In fact, it was relatively soft all of Q1. You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad (although this would be somewhat inconsistent with historic sales trends of iPhones and iPod Touch, which do tend to slow prior to the anticipated release of a new version but not always to a large degree), but you simply cannot say release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad.



    I think a strong companion reason (along with anticipation for the new version) is that Apple slowed manufacturing of iPad to create capacity to produce iPad 2.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    Did you even read what I wrote? Literacy is a wonderful tool, even for tools.



    I read what you wrote; it sucks.



    While your point has merit, you were terribly obtuse and lacked any skill in forming an eloquent argument.



    Eventually I figured out that you were saying it's impossible to say people held off on buying of the iPad because of an anticipated iPad 2, since it wasn't announced until March. I didnt follow that point until several posts later because there are plenty people who anticipated a new iPad and didn't need an announcement from apple to know it. Whether or not that was enough to soften sales, I don't care to argue.



    And then there was the part where you referenced iPod sales trends and i couldn't decipher what your point was. And then the genius part where you said it can be argued that "anticipation" slowed sales, but it cannot be said that the "release" of the iPad 2 slowed sales. False dichotomy aside, if the iPad 2 was released and thus available, why would anyone argue that sales would decrease?



    I don't care about your actual point and whether it was right or not. But between your poorly worded arguments and such grammatical gems as "...iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad." ( Which you said twice; Say iPads, or "the iPad"), you have no business being a pompous jerk who sarcastically declares others to be lacking in literacy.
  • Reply 42 of 84
    piotpiot Posts: 1,346member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    They may be selling better than many of us might expect. The Samsung Tab 10.1, Asus Transformer and Toshiba Thrive have ....... Informercial edited out...............



    None of which were even for sale in Q1.
  • Reply 43 of 84
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 19,385member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    They may be selling better than many of us might expect. The Samsung Tab 10.1, Asus Transformer and Toshiba Thrive have iPad-equivalent or better hardware, more connectivity options, good build quality, comparable battery life, less expensive add-ons, and yet still manage to meet and/or significantly undercut Apple's iPad2 prices. Dedicated Apple fans may say they can't match the iOS experience. Buyers of those "other" tablets probably don't know that (or don't care if they do) considering the price/feature differences. And if you throw the Nook Color in there, which IMO serves the most common needs for most surfers and readers at just $249, and Apple's higher price is hard to justify for some buyers.



    Yeah, in someone's dream world.



    If/when they (anyone!) put out actual numbers sold, then this is worthy of further discussion.
  • Reply 44 of 84
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Alfiejr View Post


    there is no question IDC provides paid services to MS, that's a fact. eg, see this EULA, search for "IDC". they provide financial info for a lot of MS services. i have to assume they get paid for that.



    http://explore.live.com/microsoft-se...ement?ref=none



    their conflict of interest is blatant. but web "journalism" ethics are so pathetic anyway that no on calls them out for it.



    Ok - this is interesting those are market quotes provided by IDC - Interactive Data Corporation, which is owned by Warburg Pincus and Silverlake Partners.



    Wiki:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interac...ta_Corporation

    Website: http://www.interactivedata.com/



    This was a survey conducted by IDC - International Data Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group - and a completely different company.



    Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interna...ta_Corporation

    Website: http://www.idc.com/



    It's confusing though I'll grant you. This rather plays to my point though of how easy it is to jump to conclusions that badness is going down, when in fact it's just everyday incompetence.
  • Reply 45 of 84
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by brucep View Post


    55 million

    wow thats a lot of ipads



    9



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Around half a square kilometer of screen.



    Er... 55 million is IDC's estimate of *all* tablets sold in 2011.



    Based on my previous estimates, iPad 1 + 2 + 2S/3/whatever sold in 2011 will be 40-45 million*, at the very max 50 million. Placing iPad around the 80% mark of tablets sold in 2011 (45 million out of 55 million), which sounds roughly about right, possibly a bit low.



    Admittedly since all these other crapblet players aren't willing to release any real sell-through figures iPad dominance could end the year at 90% or so in reality.





    *My estimated iPad sales by calendar quarter 2011:

    Q1 : 4 million

    Q2 : 7 million

    Q3 : 15 million

    Q4 : 18 million

    Total : 44 million
  • Reply 46 of 84
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by halfyearsun View Post


    I read what you wrote; it sucks.



    While your point has merit, you were terribly obtuse and lacked any skill in forming an eloquent argument.



    Eventually I figured out that you were saying it's impossible to say people held off on buying of the iPad because of an anticipated iPad 2, since it wasn't announced until March. I didnt follow that point until several posts later because there are plenty people who anticipated a new iPad and didn't need an announcement from apple to know it. Whether or not that was enough to soften sales, I don't care to argue.



    And then there was the part where you referenced iPod sales trends and i couldn't decipher what your point was. And then the genius part where you said it can be argued that "anticipation" slowed sales, but it cannot be said that the "release" of the iPad 2 slowed sales. False dichotomy aside, if the iPad 2 was released and thus available, why would anyone argue that sales would decrease?



    I don't care about your actual point and whether it was right or not. But between your poorly worded arguments and such grammatical gems as "...iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad." ( Which you said twice; Say iPads, or "the iPad"), you have no business being a pompous jerk who sarcastically declares others to be lacking in literacy.



    Wow, so cute. Where do I start? Well, we will leave the small stuff alone and just point out that you have misused the term "false dichotomy". Very ironic, given your little lecture on how I don't have the right to mock others for lacking in literacy. Very cute and ironic. Tee hee ...
  • Reply 47 of 84
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,901member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    So many people keep repeating the fallacy that the release of iPad 2 slowed the sales of iPad in Q1. The facts do not back that up. The official announcement of iPad 2 was March 2. It became available on March 11. By March, iPad sales was already soft compared to Christmas season. In fact, it was relatively soft all of Q1. You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad (although this would be somewhat inconsistent with historic sales trends of iPhones and iPod Touch, which do tend to slow prior to the anticipated release of a new version but not always to a large degree), but you simply cannot say release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad.



    I think a strong companion reason (along with anticipation for the new version) is that Apple slowed manufacturing of iPad to create capacity to produce iPad 2.



    Apple sent out notices to the press about an event that was known to be for the iPad, well in advance of the event itself. In addition, everyone knew that Apple would be coming out with a new tablet in March or April. Therefor, it's correct to assume the anticipation of the new tablet surprised sales of the old one.



    In addition, Cook stated that they had trouble meeting demand.
  • Reply 48 of 84
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,901member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post


    Android tablets have a 34% market share? Perhaps in units shipped to stores but there is no way that is the percentage purchased by users. The real number is much smaller than that.



    This is a problem Apple has to deal with. The conception that shipped equals sales is false.



    Shipped means out of the factory, and on the loading dock to the train to take them to the coast, where they will be loaded on to a freighter.



    It's interesting that all other manufacturers, except Apple, who has made it very clear that sold means in the hands of the final end user, refuse to state how many they've sold, even when asked directly. In analysts calls, which are considered to be a legal financial document, their refusal to give that information often borders on the illegal, but not quite. The last call with RIM had them stating that they couldn't give that information because they "didn't have it with them". Sure. So they knew the numbers, but they didn't have the paper it was written on, so they didn't have it with them.



    My estimate is that Apple sold closer to 85% of the tablets second quarter.
  • Reply 49 of 84
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Again, I always try and suggest a global view of things. In this case, everyone arguing about the low iPad figures in calendar Q1 are mostly correct.



    Yes, in countries where iPad 1 was launched for quite some time would experience some drop in demand with the announcement and waiting for the iPad 2.



    However keep in mind that in such countries even the iPad 1 was constrained in the post-holiday season, and extremely constrained or not yet launched in many other countries where Macs are available.



    iPad 1 was also ramped down sharply to ramp up iPad 2, thus reducing iPad 1 supply and holding off iPad 1 launches in various countries until iPad 2 came out. Apple could have "padded" some countries with continued iPad 1 production while iPad 2 was gradually rolled out but Apple rarely does this. The iPad 2 launched in the US early March and a very limited set of countries in late March. That means with iPad 1 ramping down, most countries would have virtually sold out of iPad 1 by the last few weeks of March ie. no iPad to buy whatsoever.



    Top this off with iPad 2 being virtually impossible to obtain in March 2011 due to limited supply and you have the "perfect storm" of "disappointing" iPad sales in calendar Q1.
  • Reply 50 of 84
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,901member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    They may be selling better than many of us might expect. The Samsung Tab 10.1, Asus Transformer and Toshiba Thrive have iPad-equivalent or better hardware, more connectivity options, good build quality, comparable battery life, less expensive add-ons, and yet still manage to meet and/or significantly undercut Apple's iPad2 prices. Dedicated Apple fans may say they can't match the iOS experience. Buyers of those "other" tablets probably don't know that (or don't care if they do) considering the price/feature differences. And if you throw the Nook Color in there, which IMO serves the most common needs for most surfers and readers at just $249, and Apple's higher price is hard to justify for some buyers.



    Forget Apple fans. Every single review of all of those tablets say that they can't recommend them over an iPad. They say that in the future, if this and that works out, they may be able to recommend them, but who knows if that will happen?



    None of those tablets you mentioned are better, or equal in any way that matters.
  • Reply 51 of 84
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,901member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Link? The only model where I saw that happen clearly on the data I've seen was for the original model. The data in that graph is somewhat coarse though, so if you have something with finer granularity I'd be interested in seeing it. On this graph the IPhone-3 sales actually start to rise before the new model. The 3+3GS sales dip very slightly before the 4, but that could just be due to supply of 3s drying up.



    Edit: deleted image - solipsism beat me to it



    Apple had said that phone sales the quarter before were higher than anticipated, and so they actually ran out of phones, until the new model came out in the third quarter.
  • Reply 52 of 84
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    The last call with RIM had them stating that they couldn't give that information because they "didn't have it with them". Sure. So they knew the numbers, but they didn't have the paper it was written on, so they didn't have it with them.



    Oh, I'm sure all the RIM executives on the conference call had the exact sell through figures in their heads, burning a hole in their collective consciousness. "Didn't have it"? An absolute lie that should be an illegal business practice.



    Their most hyped up project in the companies history, the saviour that would lead RIM out of stagnation to greater heights, and they don't have the sell through numbers to boast about?



    Bottom line is the Playbook was a dismal an abject failure that nobody high up at RIM is even willing to talk about. All we've gotten since is literally incoherent babbling from the co-CEOs.
  • Reply 53 of 84
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Apple sent out notices to the press about an event that was known to be for the iPad, well in advance of the event itself. In addition, everyone knew that Apple would be coming out with a new tablet in March or April. Therefor, it's correct to assume the anticipation of the new tablet surprised sales of the old one.



    In addition, Cook stated that they had trouble meeting demand.



    Apple sent the invitation roughly a week before March 2, not well in advance. But yes, there was great anticipation. How much did that suppress sales?



    Let's look at 2010 - In the quarter ending in March, Apple sold 8.75M iPhones. In the quarter ending in June (very close to announcement of iPhone 4), they sold 8.5M iPhones. Everyone "anticipates" iPod renewal every September. So iPod sales should dip in the July-August period, right? In 2010, Apple sold 9.4M iPods from Apr to June, followed by 9.1M in the following quarter.



    So where was the sales dip attributed to "anticipation" of new versions?



    In comparison, iPad sales dropped from over 7M to 4.7M from end of 2010 to first quarter of 2011 (while iPhone sales actually rose from 16M to 18.7M). In the face of these numbers, I am open to hearing reasonable arguments about how anticipation or any other phenomenon explaining the drop in iPad sales at the beginning of 2011.



    And, there is now great anticipation about iPad 3 in September, not to mention iPhone 5. I wonder if sales of iPhone 4 and iPad 2 are dropping like a stone?
  • Reply 54 of 84
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,901member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    I realize it's easy to assume that IDC is intentionally boosting Android/MS for nefarious or financial reasons, but it isn't necessarily the case. Back during my misspent youth as a physics grad student I took a course in cosmology, and I still remember how, on the very first day, the professor made several heroic assumptions about the universe. I remember a guy asking why we made these assumptions, and the professor replied that we had to, if we didn't we really couldn't get anywhere at all. The entire field of cosmology is built on these approximations and if the universe is radically different than that then we're just stuffed.



    Often analysts end up making similarly huge assumptions, such as that product shipped is a good indication of product sold, or that Nokia will carry their market share over to WP7, and I suspect it's for the same reason. If they didn't make them then they wouldn't be able to do anything at all.



    The really bad thing is when they make these huge assumptions and don't note it anywhere in the analysis.



    One problem is when they take the marketing department's numbers going forward as being real, which they often do. All too many times I read a piece where it's stated that the manufacturer is coming up with a new model that will fill the hole in their line-up, and result in 20% more sales, which is dutifully reported upon as being a real number.



    Of course, in cases like Nokia, where sales are falling off much faster than anticipated, none of these numbers may matter. The other problem is that analysts often don't consider demand. So when a company states that they will be able to increase production by 50%, they assume that sales will go up by that much, without any evidence that the potential customer actually wants the product.



    So we see the numbers that both IDC and Gartner produce. Do they research if all of these people will want WP7 Nokia phones? No, they just assume they will.



    I'd like to see their five year projections from 2005 through 2009. It should be good for a laugh.
  • Reply 55 of 84
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,901member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    Apple sent the invitation roughly a week before March 2, not well in advance. But yes, there was great anticipation. How much did that suppress sales?



    Let's look at 2010 - In the quarter ending in March, Apple sold 8.75M iPhones. In the quarter ending in June (very close to announcement of iPhone 4), they sold 8.5M iPhones. Everyone "anticipates" iPod renewal every September. So iPod sales should dip in the July-August period, right? In 2010, Apple sold 9.4M iPods from Apr to June, followed by 9.1M in the following quarter.



    So where was the sales dip attributed to "anticipation" of new versions?



    In comparison, iPad sales dropped from over 7M to 4.7M from end of 2010 to first quarter of 2011 (while iPhone sales actually rose from 16M to 18.7M). In the face of these numbers, I am open to hearing reasonable arguments about how anticipation or any other phenomenon explaining the drop in iPad sales.



    And, there is now great anticipation about iPad 3 in September, not to mention iPhone 5. I wonder if sales of iPhone 4 and iPad 2 are dropping like a stone?



    You're missing a few things. Sales did fall, as the numbers you present show. But sales of the new models, often arriving in the middle of the final month of the quarter pick those sales up quickly.



    But parts were very constrained for the iPad2 as Cook made very clear, so very little product was available. Estimates were that Apple could have sold at least a million more during the quarter, maybe more.



    Everyone knew that Apple was coming out with a new tablet no later than April, and likely in March. Why in March? Because last year, the original iPad was scheduled to come out in March, but Apple moved it back a month because of much higher demand than anticipated. Remember how they ran out of preorders so soon? Therefor, it was expected in March of this year.



    Pretty simple stuff, and those of us who have been observing Apple for some time understand it.
  • Reply 56 of 84
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    Wow, so cute. Where do I start? Well, we will leave the small stuff alone and just point out that you have misused the term "false dichotomy". Very ironic, given your little lecture on how I don't have the right to mock others for lacking in literacy. Very cute and ironic. Tee hee ...



    Yes, you mentioned cute and ironic. www.thesaurus.com



    Condescension aside, while it's not a prototypical example of the "False Dichotomy Logical Fallacy," you improperly separated a single issue in two. Perhaps I used the term "false dichotomy" too loosely.



    "You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad ... but you simply cannot say release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad."



    Nobody suggested that once the iPad 2 was released, sales dropped.



    Regardless, you can dissect whether it's appropriately a "false dichotomy" or a "straw-man fallacy" or whatever term you picked up from Philosophy 101, but you're still diverting (red herring?) from my point.



    You know what? I'll go ahead and concede that I misappropriated the term "false dichotomy." You still can't write clearly, and you're still an a**
  • Reply 57 of 84
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post


    Oh, I'm sure all the RIM executives on the conference call had the exact sell through figures in their heads, burning a hole in their collective consciousness. "Didn't have it"? An absolute lie that should be an illegal business practice.



    Actually I rather imagine that they really didn't have it, which in many ways is worse. Apple has far far more control over its channel than RIM, and Apple also seems to be far far better run.



    I imagine Steve Jobs can go over to his computer and get an immediate global management view that includes 90% of Apple's sales channel's figures on a day to day basis. I'm willing to bet Tweedledum+Tweedledee over at RIM have to get such numbers produced specially.
  • Reply 58 of 84
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    You're missing a few things. Sales did fall, as the numbers you present show. But sales of the new models, often arriving in the middle of the final month of the quarter pick those sales up quickly.



    iPhone 4 announcement was in July and so sales of this new version did not start until after then. So, anticipation of a new phone had little effect on iPhone 3GS sales in the preceding quarter.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    But parts were very constrained for the iPad2 as Cook made very clear, so very little product was available. Estimates were that Apple could have sold at least a million more during the quarter, maybe more.



    A million more would put them at 5M+, still a disappointing total.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Everyone knew that Apple was coming out with a new tablet no later than April, and likely in March. Why in March? Because last year, the original iPad was scheduled to come out in March, but Apple moved it back a month because of much higher demand than anticipated. Remember how they ran out of preorders so soon? Therefor, it was expected in March of this year.



    You are saying millions of people around the world stopped buying iPad 1 because they were absolutely sure iPad 2 was coming out in March. Yet millions keep buying iPhones and iPods even when they anticipate a new version. Good luck with that logic.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Pretty simple stuff, and those of us who have been observing Apple for some time understand it.



    That's self-congratulatory backslapping (unjustified) and not a rational argument.



    I think it's important to analyze the facts and figures, before forming a conclusion. Instead, you stick to a pre-formed conclusion and keep trying to twist facts around it. It just doesn't work.
  • Reply 59 of 84
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by halfyearsun View Post




    Regardless, you can dissect whether it's appropriately a "false dichotomy" or a "straw-man fallacy" or whatever term you picked up from Philosophy 101, but you're still diverting (red herring?) from my point.




    Therein lies your problem. If you had taken English 101 instead of Philosophy 101, you would have fewer problems with the language. Not too late.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by halfyearsun View Post




    Nobody suggested that once the iPad 2 was released, sales dropped.




    Actually, someone did. You shouldn't call them "nobody". Not nice.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by halfyearsun View Post


    You know what? I'll go ahead and concede that I misappropriated the term "false dichotomy."



    You didn't misappropriate the term; you misunderstood its meaning and used it in the wrong context. Perhaps it's time to keep to simpler words because you seem to have trouble with those consisting of more than 3 syllables. And the irony of you calling me out for being a poor writer just keeps growing.



    In all honesty, why don't you just relax? Name-calling simply suggests you're losing the argument and are a poor loser to boot. You look like a bigger person by admitting you are wrong
  • Reply 60 of 84
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post






    Actually, someone did. You shouldn't call them "nobody". Not nice.




    I believe this is the "someone" you're referring to, since you quoted it.



    "Originally Posted by irnchriz

    The iPad figures were low for the first quarter of 2011 due to the release of the iPad 2 which slowed device sales prior to it's release..."



    Emphasis mine.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad ...but you simply cannot say release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad.







    They suggested that anticipation of the new iPad slowed sales, not that sales slowed after its release, which is the point of contention you created.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    Did you even read what I wrote? Literacy is a wonderful tool, even for tools.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post




    Name-calling simply suggests you're losing the argument and are a poor loser to boot. You look like a bigger person by admitting you are wrong



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