IDC bumps 2011 tablet forecast to 53M as Apple?s iPad 2 dominates

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  • Reply 61 of 84
    nikon133nikon133 Posts: 2,600member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    As good or better?



    Weight 130g more.

    Depth 16mm to the iPad-2s 9mm



    The CPU, memory etc are comparable I'll grant you, but the physical specs are way way worse. The only Android tablet that genuinely competes right now on specs is the 10.1 Samsung.



    And you think no one would buy device based on features (vs. design)? Personally I'm finding file manager, capability to access files and media over the network (without iTunes) and, to some extend, Flash, more handy than weight and thickness.
  • Reply 62 of 84
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    Perhaps it's time to keep to simpler words because you seem to have trouble with those consisting of more than 3 syllables. And the irony of you calling me out for being a poor writer just keeps growing.



    you just made my night



    As you said earlier, the drop in iPad sales from Jan->Mar11 was due in large order to Apple cutting off supply way ahead of the refresh.



    http://9to5mac.com/2011/02/21/ipad-2...ean-retailers/



    It looks like the process started to bite in late Feb, so we're still left with a seasonal drop in addition, or perhaps more accurately a seasonal spike in the prior quarter.
  • Reply 63 of 84
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nikon133 View Post


    And you think no one would buy device based on features (vs. design)? Personally I'm finding file manager, capability to access files and media over the network (without iTunes) and, to some extend, Flash, more handy than weight and thickness.



    Possibly, but I'm finding it hard to see why they'd by a Thrive over a Samsung 10.1. If they really care about those features, then logically they'd go for the tablet that had them and a good build quality, rather than the one which didn't.



    In fact if you need file system, network, and flash more than you need low weight or sleek formfactor - you would probably be better off with a laptop.
  • Reply 64 of 84
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    It looks like the process started to bite in late Feb, so we're still left with a seasonal drop in addition, or perhaps more accurately a seasonal spike in the prior quarter.



    That would be my guess too, except iPhone sales actually rose from the Christmas quarter to the 1st Q of 2011 (or what Apple calls Q2). This is why I continue to find that dip in iPad sales interesting.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    you just made my night



    As you said earlier, the drop in iPad sales from Jan->Mar11 was due in large order to Apple cutting off supply way ahead of the refresh.



    That's the only sound argument I can think of so far. After all, it would be hard to build millions of iPads and iPad 2's at the same time.
  • Reply 65 of 84
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    ... the release of iPad 2 slowed the sales of iPad... You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad... release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad.



    .......

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    Therein lies your problem. If you had taken English 101 instead of Philosophy 101, you would have fewer problems with the language. Not too late.




  • Reply 66 of 84
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by halfyearsun View Post


    .......



  • Reply 67 of 84
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,901member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Actually I rather imagine that they really didn't have it, which in many ways is worse. Apple has far far more control over its channel than RIM, and Apple also seems to be far far better run.



    I imagine Steve Jobs can go over to his computer and get an immediate global management view that includes 90% of Apple's sales channel's figures on a day to day basis. I'm willing to bet Tweedledum+Tweedledee over at RIM have to get such numbers produced specially.



    Oh, I'm sure they had a very good idea of how many sold. Not to the unit, but close enough.



    "you shipped 500,000, how many of those were sold?"



    "well, we don't have exact numbers yet, but approximately 250,000."



    That would have been fine, as no one gives exact numbers during these calls as we can see by the 500,000 shipped number. No way that was exact. I guarantee they get numbers on a weekly basic, or at worst, a monthly one. They must. The reason why the call is made so far after the quarterly period is over is to get all the numbers and correlate them.



    As you say, if they didn't have them, that would be even worse. But I don't see how they couldn't.
  • Reply 68 of 84
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,901member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    iPhone 4 announcement was in July and so sales of this new version did not start until after then. So, anticipation of a new phone had little effect on iPhone 3GS sales in the preceding quarter.



    You are kidding. It's pretty common knowledge that Apple came up with a new phone the same time every year. That's why things are so much in a tousle, because Apple did something different.



    Most everyone knew that Apple would have a new phone then. It certainly wasn't a secret.



    Quote:

    A million more would put them at 5M+, still a disappointing total.



    A million more would have had them at 5.5 million. Still a bit down, but not very far, and estimates were that it could have been 1.5 million, so we would be up to 6 million which was within range of a number of analysts. In addition, that's the slowest quarter of the year, coming off the busiest.



    Quote:

    You are saying millions of people around the world stopped buying iPad 1 because they were absolutely sure iPad 2 was coming out in March. Yet millions keep buying iPhones and iPods even when they anticipate a new version. Good luck with that logic.



    I don't have to say it, it's a well known thing, and has been written about over the years to death.



    You don't actually read everything that is being posted before responding, do you? I've already explained that. I'll do it one more time for you. Both iPods and iPhones tend to be in pretty good supply after being introduced, maybe not as many as needed, but pretty close. So the sales of the new units, which jump spectacularly when they first come out, tend to cover much of the drop in sales from those waiting for them.



    That didn't happen with the iPad, because of the "mother of backorders" or whatever it was that Cook stated was the reason for the smaller sales of the iPod 2.



    We know they had some problems getting screens, because of a problem with them. I believe there was another part shortage as well, but I don't remember which part.



    Quote:

    That's self-congratulatory backslapping (unjustified) and not a rational argument.



    It's also true, as most people will tell you.



    Quote:

    I think it's important to analyze the facts and figures, before forming a conclusion. Instead, you stick to a pre-formed conclusion and keep trying to twist facts around it. It just doesn't work.



    I agree, but you aren't analyzing the facts, you're ignoring them for a Pre formed opinion.
  • Reply 69 of 84
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    You are kidding. It's pretty common knowledge that Apple came up with a new phone the same time every year. That's why things are so much in a tousle, because Apple did something different.



    Most everyone knew that Apple would have a new phone then. It certainly wasn't a secret.







    A million more would have had them at 5.5 million. Still a bit down, but not very far, and estimates were that it could have been 1.5 million, so we would be up to 6 million which was within range of a number of analysts. In addition, that's the slowest quarter of the year, coming off the busiest.







    I don't have to say it, it's a well known thing, and has been written about over the years to death.



    You don't actually read everything that is being posted before responding, do you? I've already explained that. I'll do it one more time for you. Both iPods and iPhones tend to be in pretty good supply after being introduced, maybe not as many as needed, but pretty close. So the sales of the new units, which jump spectacularly when they first come out, tend to cover much of the drop in sales from those waiting for them.



    That didn't happen with the iPad, because of the "mother of backorders" or whatever it was that Cook stated was the reason for the smaller sales of the iPod 2.



    We know they had some problems getting screens, because of a problem with them. I believe there was another part shortage as well, but I don't remember which part.







    It's also true, as most people will tell you.







    I agree, but you aren't analyzing the facts, you're ignoring them for a Pre formed opinion.



    Wow, you really don't understand, do you? And I thought you were just pretending to not get it.
  • Reply 70 of 84
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    On the e-reader side, Barnes & Noble?s Nook Color dethroned Amazon?s Kindle to become the top-selling e-reader for the first time.



    How do they get the numbers for e-readers when all the reports I have read so far mention that Amazon never releases sales figures of the Kindle. Since there is no third-party seller/ retailer, how does someone figure out how many Kindles have been sold?
  • Reply 71 of 84
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BestKeptSecret View Post


    How do they get the numbers for e-readers when all the reports I have read so far mention that Amazon never releases sales figures of the Kindle. Since there is no third-party seller/ retailer, how does someone figure out how many Kindles have been sold?



    Good question. Poor guess-timates. Analysts guess. People here guess based on those guesses. So, no one really knows the real facts, which is why there are so many disagreements. Easier to be self-righteous when it appears hard to use real facts to refute your stand.



    Sometimes, analysts talk to "insiders" who may be employees working for one of the supply chain companies. They get the dope of the size of the latest shipment of, say, e-ink screens to Amazon and make their guesses about number of Kindles sold accordingly. Sometimes, they try to read between the lines of any press releases by the companies or utterances by one of their senior managers. But at the end of the day, everyone is mostly guessing.
  • Reply 72 of 84
    myapplelovemyapplelove Posts: 1,515member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    They may be selling better than many of us might expect. The Samsung Tab 10.1, Asus Transformer and Toshiba Thrive have iPad-equivalent or better hardware, more connectivity options, good build quality, comparable battery life, less expensive add-ons, and yet still manage to meet and/or significantly undercut Apple's iPad2 prices. Dedicated Apple fans may say they can't match the iOS experience. Buyers of those "other" tablets probably don't know that (or don't care if they do) considering the price/feature differences. And if you throw the Nook Color in there, which IMO serves the most common needs for most surfers and readers at just $249, and Apple's higher price is hard to justify for some buyers.



    That is Probably the most inaccurate misleading post in a long time...
  • Reply 73 of 84
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,324member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    That would be my guess too, except iPhone sales actually rose from the Christmas quarter to the 1st Q of 2011 (or what Apple calls Q2). This is why I continue to find that dip in iPad sales interesting.







    That's the only sound argument I can think of so far. After all, it would be hard to build millions of iPads and iPad 2's at the same time.



    Here's another argument - the iPad is more seasonal than an iPhone. iPhones are hard to buy for other people as gifts as you have to sign the owner up for a plan. They can be bought unlocked, and probably are, in certain countries but thats not a significant number of sales. Therefore, like iPods and unlike iPhones, a drop in iPad sales is probably seasonal. We are working from a data set of one. But it is a wise extrapolation.



    iPod sales, which are mature, tend to drop by 50% in Q2 compared to Q1. The iPad looks like it could have fallen by 10% or so if there were no constraints. This indicates an upward trajectory.
  • Reply 74 of 84
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,324member
    And some actual data. Apple said in the conference call after the release of the iPhone 4 that the sales of the 3GS fell off a cliff that month, and because of supply constraints they didn't make up the difference in iPhone 4 sales ( in the last week of that Q) . By "fall of a cliff" I mean the monthly sales were the same y-o-y as the year before, but previous months of the same quarter had seen increases of >100%. That was when the announced the phone at the WWDC. Clearly they have partly decided not to deal with that again. The iPhone 5/ 4S will be announced much closer to the release date, I imagine.
  • Reply 75 of 84
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 19,385member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    Wow, you really don't understand, do you? And I thought you were just pretending to not get it.



    Please stop. You're spouting nonsense at this point.



    Or just go away. Thanks.
  • Reply 76 of 84
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    That would be my guess too, except iPhone sales actually rose from the Christmas quarter to the 1st Q of 2011 (or what Apple calls Q2). This is why I continue to find that dip in iPad sales interesting.



    It's possible that Apple held supply back from the market in prior quarters in order to be able to supply the holiday quarter in greater volume. I think that there's no doubt that unlike iPhones the iPad will have a strong seasonal demand component around christmas. People buying over the holidays are more fickle, if you don't supply they'll switch their purchase to a competitor, or to a different category all together - so it might make sense to build up supply for that period - even in the face of supply constraints.



    The iPhone sales for the post-holiday quarter are flattered by the launch of the Verizon iP4, which represented both significant new supply and significant new demand. That may have been masking some low overall demand in that period.
  • Reply 77 of 84
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BestKeptSecret View Post


    How do they get the numbers for e-readers when all the reports I have read so far mention that Amazon never releases sales figures of the Kindle. Since there is no third-party seller/ retailer, how does someone figure out how many Kindles have been sold?



    I believe they're basing this primarily off consumer surveys in the US market by firms such as Nielsen and Pew. Such surveys have a significant margin of error due to sample bias.
  • Reply 78 of 84
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 21,112member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by myapplelove View Post


    That is Probably the most inaccurate misleading post in a long time...



    If you'd post some specifics on why you feel that way, perhaps we could discuss it. What parts were misleading? And what makes it the "most inaccurate post in a long time"?
  • Reply 79 of 84
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Please stop. You're spouting nonsense at this point.



    Or just go away. Thanks.



    Say what? That's redundant, isn't it? Of course I'd go away. After all, I don't just sit on this site and come back post as multiple characters in order to reinforce my (absence of) arguments. That might be some people's raison d'etre, but not mine.



    As for nonsense, when people disagree, they naturally find no sense in the other people's analysis. So, redundant again. But that's ok.
  • Reply 80 of 84
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    It's possible that Apple held supply back from the market in prior quarters in order to be able to supply the holiday quarter in greater volume. I think that there's no doubt that unlike iPhones the iPad will have a strong seasonal demand component around christmas. People buying over the holidays are more fickle, if you don't supply they'll switch their purchase to a competitor, or to a different category all together - so it might make sense to build up supply for that period - even in the face of supply constraints.



    The iPhone sales for the post-holiday quarter are flattered by the launch of the Verizon iP4, which represented both significant new supply and significant new demand. That may have been masking some low overall demand in that period.



    It's a reasonable argument (unlike some others here, who seem to struggle with how timing changes the analysis). The Verizon iP4 was announced in mid-Jan and became available a month later. So yes, it could have given the overall iP4 sales a boost. In fact, it must have, particularly given that the increase from Christmas to the next quarter was about 1.5M, perhaps close enough to the Verizon difference. If so, this does say that there is not much seasonal dip in iPhone sales - at least, nowhere close to the drop seen in sales of iPods (see below).



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post


    Here's another argument - the iPad is more seasonal than an iPhone. iPhones are hard to buy for other people as gifts as you have to sign the owner up for a plan. They can be bought unlocked, and probably are, in certain countries but thats not a significant number of sales. Therefore, like iPods and unlike iPhones, a drop in iPad sales is probably seasonal. We are working from a data set of one. But it is a wise extrapolation.



    iPod sales, which are mature, tend to drop by 50% in Q2 compared to Q1. The iPad looks like it could have fallen by 10% or so if there were no constraints. This indicates an upward trajectory.



    This is a good observation. IPods are great gifts, whereas iPhones are tricky gifts to give unless it is for a loved one. Also, they didn't come unlocked in the US until recently. And I agree, iPads would be more like iPods.



    Well, glad to see I do make some sense to sensible people, and to see it is possible to analyze nuances together even when two people don't see the whole picture exactly the same way.
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