If we accept the "truck versus cars" analogy, then Apple maybe shooting themselves in the foot. With iPads becoming the tools of consumers and light weight users, then desktop computers become th domain of professionals. Yet on the professional front, Apple is pushing away customers. Look what happened with the fiasco that is Final Cut Pro. Editors, post houses, and film schools are now heading back to avid (ugh) or Adobe.
For now. Apple, with Final Cut Pro X, is exactly right about where the market will be - tape is dead. Just like with USB, there needs to be something there to show people how to move away from it. USB was out for years - from Intel - but until Apple shipped millions of USB-only iMacs, the USB market didn't go anywhere.
Same with Final Cut Pro X. There are tapeless workflows, but they are clunky, awkward, and often grafted on to software designed to work around tape workflows. What a shocker!
Where Apple stumbled - either out of ignorance, or perhaps out of weariness of trying to convince people, was by immediately discontinuing the previous Final Cut and not better articulating their plans for integrating traditional workflows - either directly or through third parties.
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And if you're using those two options, then why not just buy a cheaper window based machine. I know people in the audio business are looking at logic audio and wondering... Are we going to be screwed next.
Only people who are more emotional driven than business driven.
If Apple was really going to "abandon" the Pro market, why show up at NAB and why not call it iMovie Pro? Apple isn't stupid - they have no intention of ceding the pro market. I think, like with iOS, the Pro Market they are going after is one that isn't really defined and doesn't really exist yet - but will be the dominate market not too long from now.
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As for Aperture, what a buggy mess and will it's next iteration be IPhoto Pro?
What a crap question - Aperture 3 fixed all my issues with Aperture 2 - sure, there are a few things I would still like to see but vastly prefer Aperture to LightRoom. And at under $100, it's a complete steal.
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So a slow shift back to PC's may be brewing.
In Ballmers pipe dreams
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Apple builds trucks, but not the cheapest and with out the dedicated software, not the best.
Hahaha! Highest customer satisfaction in the industry and competitors dropping out of the market because they can't compete? Second greatest market cap?
Here's a thought - perhaps Apple is successful because they aren't playing the game that you think they should be in order to be "successful" in your eyes? Otherwise you would have to chalk up their success to brand loyalty, fandom, marketing or some other irrational explanation - and seriously, which is the more easily legitimate reason? That they make products people want or they trick them into buying overpriced stuff that is inferior?
It doesn't really matter what Microsoft thinks. Apple is clearly the company in control of how the public sees computing. It's a matter of competing visions, and Microsoft's vision is a defense of the way things currently are. Apple 's, on the other hand, is indicative of the future they are currently creating.
Two years ago, nobody was *really* in the tablet market. Today, companies are losing their shit because they can't keep up with Apple's forward thinking.
The growth pains that Apple is experiencing in software, such as final cut x, is just their transition into the post pc era (pro software prepping for major adjustments for post pc devices). Other companies are not prepping or the major changes ahead, and when we're finally there, they're all going to feel the pain. Apple's golden age is far from over, imo.
Apple's still on the bleeding edge of tech. On which side of the knife they fall depends on what they do with the next Mac Pro update.
If Apple were playing the same game as everyone else and the game from the last 20 years, you might have a point.
They aren't playing that game - they have invented the next game and they are executing beautifully against it. You and Galbi are stuck in the same myopic past...
Seems to me that your a very different consumer than I am.
Your the type that would gobble up information thrown out by marketers, chew it and process it.
I'm the type that looks at specs, then marketing information and be skeptical throughout the entire process (whether it is for iOS, Mac, windows, Android or any other devices).
I tend to not weight the marketing speak by others as heavily as the information that I gather myself.
I work closely with marketers in my field and I know first hand what kind of fluff they like to put in to sell the product. As long as its not illegal, they will incorporate it into their plans.
Also, why are you bringing your father into this? I want YOUR opinions, not his.
Look like you are the type that would buy a Moto Xoom, because they have more ram, dual core processor, multitask, and runs Flash but end up under performing iPad2 in every possible benchmark.
If Apple were playing the same game as everyone else and the game from the last 20 years, you might have a point.
They aren't playing that game - they have invented the next game and they are executing beautifully against it. You and Galbi are stuck in the same myopic past...
As an owner of nearly every desk top Mac there has ever been right up to the current line I have plenty of love for the high end lines and pro apps, .... But I have to agree with you 100%. Luddites always make a lot of noise but innovation must move forward.
Seems to me that your a very different consumer than I am.
Possibly. But different isn't automatically negative either. Sometimes different is.... just different!
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Your the type that would gobble up information thrown out by marketers, chew it and process it.
Now you are throwing out meaningless generalizations in an effort to marginalize my position as meaningless.
Other wise known as the logical fallacy of the Ad hominem. Your point is hollow and meaningless.
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I'm the type that looks at specs, then marketing information and be skeptical throughout the entire process (whether it is for iOS, Mac, windows, Android or any other devices).
And your the type that is in the minority. You are a techie and you are evaluating technology through that lens.
You are the minority. I am too, BTW. The vast majority of people do not view computers or devices like the iPhone or iPad as technology. They are tools. Their first and foremost question is "will this thing do what I want with the least amount of fuss on my part?"
The device that answers that question positively will "win".
It really is that simple.
Apple knows this. Apple designs to this. Apple is fanatical in answering that question. Case in point. Cut and Paste. Techies were incredulous that "something so simple" could be left out for so long. Apple knew that they had to get it right - there is no changing something that fundamental later on without causing chaos and confusion.
I can think of no better example of that fanatical dedication to the ideal of "user first" than that. What many deride Apple as "incremental updates" or "forced obsoleteness over time" Apple regards as careful and deliberate incremental change that is ALWAYS designed to increase the user experience in a positive and meaningful way - NEVER to merely check some box on a list of arbitrary "must have" features.
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I tend to not weight the marketing speak by others as heavily as the information that I gather myself.
LOL - so the Ad hominem continues. Are you saying my father was taken by "others"? For someone who doesn't know him (or me) at all you sure are fast and loose with your assumptions.
Here's a news flash - he asked me about it. He was there on launch day to get it. And if he didn't like it, he was and is more than capable of taking it back if he didn't like.
Except he didn't and continues to use it daily.
So get off the "Apple tricks people into buying their kit" because their sales, customer satisfaction ratings and industry leading sales with lower than everyone else return rate speak otherwise.
You can pontificate all you want in forums like this, the market is painting an entirely different picture that you appear to be ill-prepared to explain. Or understand.
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I work closely with marketers in my field and I know first hand what kind of fluff they like to put in to sell the product. As long as its not illegal, they will incorporate it into their plans.
Stick with that view and you will continue to be mystified. You do not get to be as successful a company as Apple is on marketing alone. And if you think otherwise you have been hanging out with your marketing friends FAR too much
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Also, why are you bringing your father into this? I want YOUR opinions, not his.
I bring my father into this because he is a member of the future state of computing.
The proverbial "Rest of Us".
My opinions about his views are absolutely relevant because your's and my views as techies are irrelevant in the new world.
"Post PC" is NOT about you, I or the majority of those posting in forums like this.
Whew - we really have a "forest for the trees" issue of biblical proportions here...
It doesn't really matter what Microsoft thinks. Apple is clearly the company in control of how the public sees computing. It's a matter of competing visions, and Microsoft's vision is a defense of the way things currently are. Apple 's, on the other hand, is indicative of the future they are currently creating.
Two years ago, nobody was *really* in the tablet market. Today, companies are losing their shit because they can't keep up with Apple's forward thinking.
Exactly. People can claim the PC is relevant and still important all they want.
Meanwhile the market is passing them by.
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The growth pains that Apple is experiencing in software, such as final cut x, is just their transition into the post pc era (pro software prepping for major adjustments for post pc devices). Other companies are not prepping or the major changes ahead, and when we're finally there, they're all going to feel the pain. Apple's golden age is far from over, imo.
Exactly. If anything, Apple is just getting started - while the gap grows. With HP and WebOS out, I don't know who will be able to catch up with them. Within five years I think we are going to see a complete role reversal. And that's pretty safe - really I don't think it's going to take more than two at the current rate of change - but I think some of the "I don't get it!" crowd's heads would explode if they tried to digest that little tidbit...
I think that really depends on who that user is. Someone who already loves their iPad and doesn't seem to use their desktop or laptop much because of it, probably was never really using their computer for things much of substance.
One mans substance is another triviality.
Careful on how quickly you are to marginalize someone elses needs and wants based on your needs and wants.
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For a lot of people who do actual pay-the-bills work on their computer, the iPad is of no use whatsoever. I'm in the latter camp. My iPad is a really fun toy, but it is not even remotely capable of doing any of my work.
Bully for you. Your still in the minority.
And your still no better nor necessarily that more sophisticated (or special) than those who can use an iPad as their sole device.
Wow, talk about over-inflated perceptions of importance!
The Apple fanboys here and at sites like this one all seem to miss the fact that the iPad is just a toy when talking about teh post PC era...sure, it kicks the PCs ass when playing angery birds and watching reruns of House on hulu - but practical PRODUCTIVE usage is limited. With ios 5 everything is tied to iCloud which means that everything lives in Apple's data center...there is no way that I have found for corporate IT to disable that, not in exchange or SCCM 2012 and not in mass via any tool from Apple.
But its not just icloud, when your little ipad can produce usefull data visualizations with large sets as fast as I can on my PC with Excel and PowerPivot, give me a call...
The iPad is a PC replacment only for those who only consume and occasionally email. For teh rest of us, it is an accessory.
saying that the ipad replaces a PC is like saying that the neck tie replaces the button up shirt...it does not replace it -- it complements it.
I hear this kind of comment a lot but it's so obviously flawed in it's conception I find it amazing that people are pushing it.
When you actually examine the content it's easy to see that it's just a repeat of those IBM comments about the (then) "new" desktop PC and how it was a "toy" next to a mainframe, and that couldn't do (you guessed it) "data visualisations with large sets." I mean it's almost word for word the same statement.
The reality is that Balmer is kind of right when he says "the tablet is just a PC." The only real weakness, or "toy-like" aspect of the iPad is the fact that you can't input data into it very efficiently or at any speed because it doesn't have a proper keyboard. The software is a non-issue because it will only get better over time and the hardware specs will also very quickly evolve to the point where they are as powerful or even more so than the average desktop.
Imagine it's a few years from now and Apple decides to reverse their previous decision and integrate a proper stylus into the iPad. All of a sudden it's not only good for creation it's actually *better* than a laptop for creation.
I wouldn't bet any money on tablets being "toys" for very long. You can already use them for the majority of things that people use their laptops for. It's really only a matter of time before they take over IMO.
Also, why are you bringing your father into this? I want YOUR opinions, not his.
Another way to say this - I bring him up for perspective.
Stop your tech-oriented naval-gazing, look up and realize there is a wide, wide world out there of all kinds of users with all kinds of requirements.
It's not all about us techies. Or at least it shouldn't be - for that I am thankful there is at least one company, in Apple, that is willing to buck industry trends, ignore the tech elite, and design devices exclusively targeted at end users.
Because at the end of the day, I enjoy being an end user and having access to stuff that just works and I don't have to think about too! I like that I can be a tech and a "normal user" if I want to be. Choice - real choice, not artificially defined idealism like "open" - is good!
ALL of these devices fall under the broad definition of a "PC".
Yeah but you'd never refer to a tablet or phone as a PC.
While PC is supposed to mean 'personal computer', we've used it in the same context for 30 years so an association has latched onto it, which conflicts with modern personal computing devices.
I don't think post-PC means something that's not personal computing, it's just not what we associate with the term PC.
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Originally Posted by ascii
Do you think it will ever have access to mass storage though? I think they intend the cloud to perform this role.
But on the other hand, Thunderbolt is very fast. Almost suspiciously fast. It makes you wonder whether Apple has bigger plans for it, such as linking an iPad to a Thunderbolt Display in the same way you currently do with a MBA, similar to as you suggest.
'Suspiciously fast' - that's an adverb Phil hasn't used yet. That should shake the marketing up a bit.
I hope they allow access to mass storage because while iCloud will work in some cases, there will be many cases where the Flash storage isn't enough and upload is not feasible. There's also the issue of backups to someone using an iPad as a main device. Some Time Machine backup is going to be needed so that if you are editing in iWork, you can go back revisions.
But even a Time Machine drive can't exist without a filesystem manager/formatting tools. I think they can do it without making something that behaves exactly like the Finder and it can be done without modality or drag and drop.
In fact, given that they've designed iOS a certain way with their sandboxing, they probably just need an app specifically for external storage. For example, a dedicated Time Machine or iSync app for iOS that manages an external drive. This means you can get a 1-2TB drive, buy movies/music on an iPad and build up a collection on the drive. Ideally, they'd introduce RAID-1 Time Machine drives though with up to dual 1.5TB 2.5" drives, given that it's the only copy you'd have.
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Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum
I don't believe that Apple wants to reveal the file system on iOS -- they want to reveal less of the file system. For example, ~/Library is hidden in OS X Lion.
I think to some extent that's true but the "All My Files" default in Lion is quite telling and ties in with what you are saying about metadata. I think they understand that files need to exist independently of applications but don't want to impose the burden of file management on the user so they are trying to figure out how to do it cleanly.
An application-centric filesystem won't work forever because it's not something you can bring to a desktop environment and the more that files build up, the harder it is to control.
Apple already has a mini filesystem browser for certain media types, which can be seen in iMovie for the iPad - skip to 3:30:
You can see an issue straight away and that is that when you have so much media, you have to scroll through hundreds of items every single time to open a file. Not only that, you can't reference movie clips by name so you have to search every time. The range-based key wording in FCPX would help here of course but requires you to do tag management i.e pick unique keywords.
A hierarchy gives you some help in that every single file must have a unique location but managing this on a touch device would need planning.
I like the media browser in iOS and if it had a documents area, that would help cover other file types e.g eps vector files. But to stop it getting out of hand, I think they need another layer. Something like 'projects' where you can group multiple data types together. This way if you work on a movie, you can create a project metadata entity on its own independent of an app e.g 'Holiday in Italy'. Then you can tag footage with this project id along with your photos and possibly music that you think will suit.
In iMovie, you'd then be able to narrow down your metadata by project so that it's nowhere near as tedious to search through files. Multiple select would help though so you don't have to tag items one by one and this can be done with tap-hold like in Mail.
corporate desktops as we know them, will soon be a thing of the past. We are virtualizing all of our desktops. Sure we need a desktop license still but as people use the desktop less, shared desktops are more common than before. It won't be long before we run the virtual desktops and thin app on a Linux desktop or bare metal.
We still buy office but we just pay maintenance and get the upgrades. Not as big Of a cash cow for them and not much growth there. I personally run OpenOffice on my Mac and the few people I know that bought office, they did so in a deeply discounted rate.
A sizable segment of the population will need a Desktop. I do all of my photo processing on my iMac. However people don't have the need to upgrade their desktops every 18 months and are much less motivated to upgrade to the latest office suite.... Plus there is bootlegging
There is that big segment of the population of course that use their desktops for web browsing, some email and entertainment. For those, iPads are more than adequate, cheaper, portable, couchable and the list goes on.
I think you are the one with the wishful thinking here. A lot of this sounds like dreaming to me.
You talk about Linux desktops but Linux is already dead in the water and makes up only the tiniest fraction of desktops. There were more people using an iPad (before iPad 2 even came out BTW), than all the Linux desktops in the entire world.
You are correct that a "segment of the population will always use desktops," but you have no proof, nor do I think it even likely, that this is actually a "sizeable" segment. There is indeed a big segment of the population that uses their desktop only for web browsing and email and those are the very people that are jumping for joy and ditching their desktop in favour of the iPad.
To use the post PC metaphor, the amount of people who are going to need trucks or really need them now is not ever going to be that large. Most people just want a car that works.
Dumping their inevsrment in FCP to suddenly invest in Avid or Premeire Pro. Shcos nor business work this way. Few have the money or authority to make such a choice in the way you describe
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Originally Posted by mKunert
Look what happened with the fiasco that is Final Cut Pro. Editors, post houses, and film schools are now heading back to avid (ugh) or Adobe.
Utterly ridiculous statement - "will never" - that's just a stupid thing to say. Of course in the future they will have enough processing power, storage, pico projectors, wireless external monitors - you have no idea what the future holds. I know accountants who already use the iPad as their main input device when out with clients, and this in year two of a new device.
I agree. And as a graphic designer, we have been using Wacom tablets for more than a decade now. Mouse and keyboards are great, but were not always the best option for a lot of our work. I expect a lot of innovation for graphic artists in the coming years because of tablets.
I think you are the one with the wishful thinking here. A lot of this sounds like dreaming to me.
You talk about Linux desktops but Linux is already dead in the water and makes up only the tiniest fraction of desktops. There were more people using an iPad (before iPad 2 even came out BTW), than all the Linux desktops in the entire world.
You are correct that a "segment of the population will always use desktops," but you have no proof, nor do I think it even likely, that this is actually a "sizeable" segment. There is indeed a big segment of the population that uses their desktop only for web browsing and email and those are the very people that are jumping for joy and ditching their desktop in favour of the iPad.
To use the post PC metaphor, the amount of people who are going to need trucks or really need them now is not ever going to be that large. Most people just want a car that works.
I may not have explained it properly. Linux desktop in order to load the VDI (virtual desktop) on a workstation, not to run it. VMware will probably "appliance" it and call it VDI loader or something. In either case it will be done to avoid paying a windows license which is the point I was driving at
VDI is not for private individuals but for corporate desktops. It allows us to manage them centrally and give all of our users the same experience.
Otherwise I agree with you, in fact if you read my previous message again you'll see that you're barking up the wrong tree
As long as there are people who depend on the likes of Adobe CS, Autodesk, and smaller professional software publishers like The Foundry, the PC will live on. If Apple doesn't want to be a part of that niche market then that is their choice.
95% of average people don't need a PC because their phone does everything they need. At work they are waiting tables, stocking shelves, using a cash register, driving a truck, cleaning things, etc. That is the evolution of the American workplace. Pretty soon it might add up to 5% professionals, 60% menial laborers, 30% unemployed and 5% students. But everyone will have a smart phone just like everyone now has a TV, regardless of income.
So you are saying the difference is HOW is it being MARKETED, rather HOW is it different in concept.
That's not enough of a good argument.
Try this: What makes the difference on the ipad is the OS (iOS), mouse and kb aren't there -- and don't get between you and your stuff!;
When you go to the fridge to get crushed ice for your drink -- you don't want to turn on the fridge, wait for it to come ready, think about what you want to do, what the fridge needs know so it can do what you want...
You just walk up, maybe flip a switch, and shove your glass in a hole in the door, to get your ice -- you don't think about it, you just do it and move on...
...Be sure and set the switch back when you're through (and later, remember to put the lid down, too)
Get out of the way and let me get to my stuff!! Or, I don't want to adjust to the computer's needs -- I want the computer to adjust to my needs.
That approach is enough to satisfy the computer needs of the vast majority of the world's population.
When viewed from that perspective, the current install base of pcs seems rather small -- important, yes, but rather small.
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If we accept the "truck versus cars" analogy, then Apple maybe shooting themselves in the foot. With iPads becoming the tools of consumers and light weight users, then desktop computers become th domain of professionals. Yet on the professional front, Apple is pushing away customers. Look what happened with the fiasco that is Final Cut Pro. Editors, post houses, and film schools are now heading back to avid (ugh) or Adobe.
For now. Apple, with Final Cut Pro X, is exactly right about where the market will be - tape is dead. Just like with USB, there needs to be something there to show people how to move away from it. USB was out for years - from Intel - but until Apple shipped millions of USB-only iMacs, the USB market didn't go anywhere.
Same with Final Cut Pro X. There are tapeless workflows, but they are clunky, awkward, and often grafted on to software designed to work around tape workflows. What a shocker!
Where Apple stumbled - either out of ignorance, or perhaps out of weariness of trying to convince people, was by immediately discontinuing the previous Final Cut and not better articulating their plans for integrating traditional workflows - either directly or through third parties.
And if you're using those two options, then why not just buy a cheaper window based machine. I know people in the audio business are looking at logic audio and wondering... Are we going to be screwed next.
Only people who are more emotional driven than business driven.
If Apple was really going to "abandon" the Pro market, why show up at NAB and why not call it iMovie Pro? Apple isn't stupid - they have no intention of ceding the pro market. I think, like with iOS, the Pro Market they are going after is one that isn't really defined and doesn't really exist yet - but will be the dominate market not too long from now.
As for Aperture, what a buggy mess and will it's next iteration be IPhoto Pro?
What a crap question - Aperture 3 fixed all my issues with Aperture 2 - sure, there are a few things I would still like to see but vastly prefer Aperture to LightRoom. And at under $100, it's a complete steal.
So a slow shift back to PC's may be brewing.
In Ballmers pipe dreams
Apple builds trucks, but not the cheapest and with out the dedicated software, not the best.
Hahaha! Highest customer satisfaction in the industry and competitors dropping out of the market because they can't compete? Second greatest market cap?
Here's a thought - perhaps Apple is successful because they aren't playing the game that you think they should be in order to be "successful" in your eyes? Otherwise you would have to chalk up their success to brand loyalty, fandom, marketing or some other irrational explanation - and seriously, which is the more easily legitimate reason? That they make products people want or they trick them into buying overpriced stuff that is inferior?
Hyperbole much?
Two years ago, nobody was *really* in the tablet market. Today, companies are losing their shit because they can't keep up with Apple's forward thinking.
The growth pains that Apple is experiencing in software, such as final cut x, is just their transition into the post pc era (pro software prepping for major adjustments for post pc devices). Other companies are not prepping or the major changes ahead, and when we're finally there, they're all going to feel the pain. Apple's golden age is far from over, imo.
Apple's still on the bleeding edge of tech. On which side of the knife they fall depends on what they do with the next Mac Pro update.
If Apple were playing the same game as everyone else and the game from the last 20 years, you might have a point.
They aren't playing that game - they have invented the next game and they are executing beautifully against it. You and Galbi are stuck in the same myopic past...
Seems to me that your a very different consumer than I am.
Your the type that would gobble up information thrown out by marketers, chew it and process it.
I'm the type that looks at specs, then marketing information and be skeptical throughout the entire process (whether it is for iOS, Mac, windows, Android or any other devices).
I tend to not weight the marketing speak by others as heavily as the information that I gather myself.
I work closely with marketers in my field and I know first hand what kind of fluff they like to put in to sell the product. As long as its not illegal, they will incorporate it into their plans.
Also, why are you bringing your father into this? I want YOUR opinions, not his.
Look like you are the type that would buy a Moto Xoom, because they have more ram, dual core processor, multitask, and runs Flash but end up under performing iPad2 in every possible benchmark.
If Apple were playing the same game as everyone else and the game from the last 20 years, you might have a point.
They aren't playing that game - they have invented the next game and they are executing beautifully against it. You and Galbi are stuck in the same myopic past...
As an owner of nearly every desk top Mac there has ever been right up to the current line I have plenty of love for the high end lines and pro apps, .... But I have to agree with you 100%. Luddites always make a lot of noise but innovation must move forward.
Seems to me that your a very different consumer than I am.
Possibly. But different isn't automatically negative either. Sometimes different is.... just different!
Your the type that would gobble up information thrown out by marketers, chew it and process it.
Now you are throwing out meaningless generalizations in an effort to marginalize my position as meaningless.
Other wise known as the logical fallacy of the Ad hominem. Your point is hollow and meaningless.
I'm the type that looks at specs, then marketing information and be skeptical throughout the entire process (whether it is for iOS, Mac, windows, Android or any other devices).
And your the type that is in the minority. You are a techie and you are evaluating technology through that lens.
You are the minority. I am too, BTW. The vast majority of people do not view computers or devices like the iPhone or iPad as technology. They are tools. Their first and foremost question is "will this thing do what I want with the least amount of fuss on my part?"
The device that answers that question positively will "win".
It really is that simple.
Apple knows this. Apple designs to this. Apple is fanatical in answering that question. Case in point. Cut and Paste. Techies were incredulous that "something so simple" could be left out for so long. Apple knew that they had to get it right - there is no changing something that fundamental later on without causing chaos and confusion.
I can think of no better example of that fanatical dedication to the ideal of "user first" than that. What many deride Apple as "incremental updates" or "forced obsoleteness over time" Apple regards as careful and deliberate incremental change that is ALWAYS designed to increase the user experience in a positive and meaningful way - NEVER to merely check some box on a list of arbitrary "must have" features.
I tend to not weight the marketing speak by others as heavily as the information that I gather myself.
LOL - so the Ad hominem continues. Are you saying my father was taken by "others"? For someone who doesn't know him (or me) at all you sure are fast and loose with your assumptions.
Here's a news flash - he asked me about it. He was there on launch day to get it. And if he didn't like it, he was and is more than capable of taking it back if he didn't like.
Except he didn't and continues to use it daily.
So get off the "Apple tricks people into buying their kit" because their sales, customer satisfaction ratings and industry leading sales with lower than everyone else return rate speak otherwise.
You can pontificate all you want in forums like this, the market is painting an entirely different picture that you appear to be ill-prepared to explain. Or understand.
I work closely with marketers in my field and I know first hand what kind of fluff they like to put in to sell the product. As long as its not illegal, they will incorporate it into their plans.
Stick with that view and you will continue to be mystified. You do not get to be as successful a company as Apple is on marketing alone. And if you think otherwise you have been hanging out with your marketing friends FAR too much
Also, why are you bringing your father into this? I want YOUR opinions, not his.
I bring my father into this because he is a member of the future state of computing.
The proverbial "Rest of Us".
My opinions about his views are absolutely relevant because your's and my views as techies are irrelevant in the new world.
"Post PC" is NOT about you, I or the majority of those posting in forums like this.
Whew - we really have a "forest for the trees" issue of biblical proportions here...
It doesn't really matter what Microsoft thinks. Apple is clearly the company in control of how the public sees computing. It's a matter of competing visions, and Microsoft's vision is a defense of the way things currently are. Apple 's, on the other hand, is indicative of the future they are currently creating.
Two years ago, nobody was *really* in the tablet market. Today, companies are losing their shit because they can't keep up with Apple's forward thinking.
Exactly. People can claim the PC is relevant and still important all they want.
Meanwhile the market is passing them by.
The growth pains that Apple is experiencing in software, such as final cut x, is just their transition into the post pc era (pro software prepping for major adjustments for post pc devices). Other companies are not prepping or the major changes ahead, and when we're finally there, they're all going to feel the pain. Apple's golden age is far from over, imo.
Exactly. If anything, Apple is just getting started - while the gap grows. With HP and WebOS out, I don't know who will be able to catch up with them. Within five years I think we are going to see a complete role reversal. And that's pretty safe - really I don't think it's going to take more than two at the current rate of change - but I think some of the "I don't get it!" crowd's heads would explode if they tried to digest that little tidbit...
I think that really depends on who that user is. Someone who already loves their iPad and doesn't seem to use their desktop or laptop much because of it, probably was never really using their computer for things much of substance.
One mans substance is another triviality.
Careful on how quickly you are to marginalize someone elses needs and wants based on your needs and wants.
For a lot of people who do actual pay-the-bills work on their computer, the iPad is of no use whatsoever. I'm in the latter camp. My iPad is a really fun toy, but it is not even remotely capable of doing any of my work.
Bully for you. Your still in the minority.
And your still no better nor necessarily that more sophisticated (or special) than those who can use an iPad as their sole device.
Wow, talk about over-inflated perceptions of importance!
The Apple fanboys here and at sites like this one all seem to miss the fact that the iPad is just a toy when talking about teh post PC era...sure, it kicks the PCs ass when playing angery birds and watching reruns of House on hulu - but practical PRODUCTIVE usage is limited. With ios 5 everything is tied to iCloud which means that everything lives in Apple's data center...there is no way that I have found for corporate IT to disable that, not in exchange or SCCM 2012 and not in mass via any tool from Apple.
But its not just icloud, when your little ipad can produce usefull data visualizations with large sets as fast as I can on my PC with Excel and PowerPivot, give me a call...
The iPad is a PC replacment only for those who only consume and occasionally email. For teh rest of us, it is an accessory.
saying that the ipad replaces a PC is like saying that the neck tie replaces the button up shirt...it does not replace it -- it complements it.
I hear this kind of comment a lot but it's so obviously flawed in it's conception I find it amazing that people are pushing it.
When you actually examine the content it's easy to see that it's just a repeat of those IBM comments about the (then) "new" desktop PC and how it was a "toy" next to a mainframe, and that couldn't do (you guessed it) "data visualisations with large sets." I mean it's almost word for word the same statement.
The reality is that Balmer is kind of right when he says "the tablet is just a PC." The only real weakness, or "toy-like" aspect of the iPad is the fact that you can't input data into it very efficiently or at any speed because it doesn't have a proper keyboard. The software is a non-issue because it will only get better over time and the hardware specs will also very quickly evolve to the point where they are as powerful or even more so than the average desktop.
Imagine it's a few years from now and Apple decides to reverse their previous decision and integrate a proper stylus into the iPad. All of a sudden it's not only good for creation it's actually *better* than a laptop for creation.
I wouldn't bet any money on tablets being "toys" for very long. You can already use them for the majority of things that people use their laptops for. It's really only a matter of time before they take over IMO.
Also, why are you bringing your father into this? I want YOUR opinions, not his.
Another way to say this - I bring him up for perspective.
Stop your tech-oriented naval-gazing, look up and realize there is a wide, wide world out there of all kinds of users with all kinds of requirements.
It's not all about us techies. Or at least it shouldn't be - for that I am thankful there is at least one company, in Apple, that is willing to buck industry trends, ignore the tech elite, and design devices exclusively targeted at end users.
Because at the end of the day, I enjoy being an end user and having access to stuff that just works and I don't have to think about too! I like that I can be a tech and a "normal user" if I want to be. Choice - real choice, not artificially defined idealism like "open" - is good!
ALL of these devices fall under the broad definition of a "PC".
Yeah but you'd never refer to a tablet or phone as a PC.
While PC is supposed to mean 'personal computer', we've used it in the same context for 30 years so an association has latched onto it, which conflicts with modern personal computing devices.
I don't think post-PC means something that's not personal computing, it's just not what we associate with the term PC.
Do you think it will ever have access to mass storage though? I think they intend the cloud to perform this role.
But on the other hand, Thunderbolt is very fast. Almost suspiciously fast. It makes you wonder whether Apple has bigger plans for it, such as linking an iPad to a Thunderbolt Display in the same way you currently do with a MBA, similar to as you suggest.
I hope they allow access to mass storage because while iCloud will work in some cases, there will be many cases where the Flash storage isn't enough and upload is not feasible. There's also the issue of backups to someone using an iPad as a main device. Some Time Machine backup is going to be needed so that if you are editing in iWork, you can go back revisions.
But even a Time Machine drive can't exist without a filesystem manager/formatting tools. I think they can do it without making something that behaves exactly like the Finder and it can be done without modality or drag and drop.
In fact, given that they've designed iOS a certain way with their sandboxing, they probably just need an app specifically for external storage. For example, a dedicated Time Machine or iSync app for iOS that manages an external drive. This means you can get a 1-2TB drive, buy movies/music on an iPad and build up a collection on the drive. Ideally, they'd introduce RAID-1 Time Machine drives though with up to dual 1.5TB 2.5" drives, given that it's the only copy you'd have.
I don't believe that Apple wants to reveal the file system on iOS -- they want to reveal less of the file system. For example, ~/Library is hidden in OS X Lion.
I think to some extent that's true but the "All My Files" default in Lion is quite telling and ties in with what you are saying about metadata. I think they understand that files need to exist independently of applications but don't want to impose the burden of file management on the user so they are trying to figure out how to do it cleanly.
An application-centric filesystem won't work forever because it's not something you can bring to a desktop environment and the more that files build up, the harder it is to control.
Apple already has a mini filesystem browser for certain media types, which can be seen in iMovie for the iPad - skip to 3:30:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KL3PslgN4Mw
You can see an issue straight away and that is that when you have so much media, you have to scroll through hundreds of items every single time to open a file. Not only that, you can't reference movie clips by name so you have to search every time. The range-based key wording in FCPX would help here of course but requires you to do tag management i.e pick unique keywords.
A hierarchy gives you some help in that every single file must have a unique location but managing this on a touch device would need planning.
I like the media browser in iOS and if it had a documents area, that would help cover other file types e.g eps vector files. But to stop it getting out of hand, I think they need another layer. Something like 'projects' where you can group multiple data types together. This way if you work on a movie, you can create a project metadata entity on its own independent of an app e.g 'Holiday in Italy'. Then you can tag footage with this project id along with your photos and possibly music that you think will suit.
In iMovie, you'd then be able to narrow down your metadata by project so that it's nowhere near as tedious to search through files. Multiple select would help though so you don't have to tag items one by one and this can be done with tap-hold like in Mail.
BUT it's more wishful thinking than anything else
corporate desktops as we know them, will soon be a thing of the past. We are virtualizing all of our desktops. Sure we need a desktop license still but as people use the desktop less, shared desktops are more common than before. It won't be long before we run the virtual desktops and thin app on a Linux desktop or bare metal.
We still buy office but we just pay maintenance and get the upgrades. Not as big Of a cash cow for them and not much growth there. I personally run OpenOffice on my Mac and the few people I know that bought office, they did so in a deeply discounted rate.
A sizable segment of the population will need a Desktop. I do all of my photo processing on my iMac. However people don't have the need to upgrade their desktops every 18 months and are much less motivated to upgrade to the latest office suite.... Plus there is bootlegging
There is that big segment of the population of course that use their desktops for web browsing, some email and entertainment. For those, iPads are more than adequate, cheaper, portable, couchable and the list goes on.
I think you are the one with the wishful thinking here. A lot of this sounds like dreaming to me.
You talk about Linux desktops but Linux is already dead in the water and makes up only the tiniest fraction of desktops. There were more people using an iPad (before iPad 2 even came out BTW), than all the Linux desktops in the entire world.
You are correct that a "segment of the population will always use desktops," but you have no proof, nor do I think it even likely, that this is actually a "sizeable" segment. There is indeed a big segment of the population that uses their desktop only for web browsing and email and those are the very people that are jumping for joy and ditching their desktop in favour of the iPad.
To use the post PC metaphor, the amount of people who are going to need trucks or really need them now is not ever going to be that large. Most people just want a car that works.
Dumping their inevsrment in FCP to suddenly invest in Avid or Premeire Pro. Shcos nor business work this way. Few have the money or authority to make such a choice in the way you describe
Look what happened with the fiasco that is Final Cut Pro. Editors, post houses, and film schools are now heading back to avid (ugh) or Adobe.
My 2 cents.
If Ballmer speaks in the woods and no one is around to hear him, is he still wrong???
Utterly ridiculous statement - "will never" - that's just a stupid thing to say. Of course in the future they will have enough processing power, storage, pico projectors, wireless external monitors - you have no idea what the future holds. I know accountants who already use the iPad as their main input device when out with clients, and this in year two of a new device.
I agree. And as a graphic designer, we have been using Wacom tablets for more than a decade now. Mouse and keyboards are great, but were not always the best option for a lot of our work. I expect a lot of innovation for graphic artists in the coming years because of tablets.
I think you are the one with the wishful thinking here. A lot of this sounds like dreaming to me.
You talk about Linux desktops but Linux is already dead in the water and makes up only the tiniest fraction of desktops. There were more people using an iPad (before iPad 2 even came out BTW), than all the Linux desktops in the entire world.
You are correct that a "segment of the population will always use desktops," but you have no proof, nor do I think it even likely, that this is actually a "sizeable" segment. There is indeed a big segment of the population that uses their desktop only for web browsing and email and those are the very people that are jumping for joy and ditching their desktop in favour of the iPad.
To use the post PC metaphor, the amount of people who are going to need trucks or really need them now is not ever going to be that large. Most people just want a car that works.
I may not have explained it properly. Linux desktop in order to load the VDI (virtual desktop) on a workstation, not to run it. VMware will probably "appliance" it and call it VDI loader or something. In either case it will be done to avoid paying a windows license which is the point I was driving at
VDI is not for private individuals but for corporate desktops. It allows us to manage them centrally and give all of our users the same experience.
Otherwise I agree with you, in fact if you read my previous message again you'll see that you're barking up the wrong tree
95% of average people don't need a PC because their phone does everything they need. At work they are waiting tables, stocking shelves, using a cash register, driving a truck, cleaning things, etc. That is the evolution of the American workplace. Pretty soon it might add up to 5% professionals, 60% menial laborers, 30% unemployed and 5% students. But everyone will have a smart phone just like everyone now has a TV, regardless of income.
So you are saying the difference is HOW is it being MARKETED, rather HOW is it different in concept.
That's not enough of a good argument.
Try this: What makes the difference on the ipad is the OS (iOS), mouse and kb aren't there -- and don't get between you and your stuff!;
When you go to the fridge to get crushed ice for your drink -- you don't want to turn on the fridge, wait for it to come ready, think about what you want to do, what the fridge needs know so it can do what you want...
You just walk up, maybe flip a switch, and shove your glass in a hole in the door, to get your ice -- you don't think about it, you just do it and move on...
...Be sure and set the switch back when you're through (and later, remember to put the lid down, too)
Get out of the way and let me get to my stuff!! Or, I don't want to adjust to the computer's needs -- I want the computer to adjust to my needs.
That approach is enough to satisfy the computer needs of the vast majority of the world's population.
When viewed from that perspective, the current install base of pcs seems rather small -- important, yes, but rather small.