Some folks might claim that the only way to bake a loaf of bread from scratch is to first create the universe. But most people are not flaming a-holes.
Indeed, the iPad is an brick out of the box - it does nothing until you plug it into a computer. That's right, a PC, a "truck".
Sure, Steve says this will be fixed in the future, and also somewhere later on in that future there will be enough tablets sold to outnumber PCs. Or so we're being told by a company who bet the farm on that marketing proposition.
But look at those penetration numbers. That's a long ways away.
The iPad sets up in about 5 minutes -- out of the box, no [strings] pc attached.
An iPad iOS upgrade takes less than 30 minutes OTA -- no [strings] pc attached.
Yeah, that's a long ways away -- 30, maybe 60 days.
Or the same "plus" HP had in mind when they quit the entire PC industry while they were the market leaders?
Some of these people should read the news instead of their own talking points.
Encouraged by Ballmer's words ... AAPL might be a good buy tomorrow if it drops again or even stays where it is long enough. The P/E Ratio is ludicrous.
Jeez, it is so easy to believe something one really wants to believe.
HP is not quitting PC industry. HP is outsourcing their production plants. HP thinks owning production plants is not the best way to do business any more, so they want to do research and development, and let others do actual manufacturing. That way, HP can select manufacturing partner who can offer best deal, rather than be obliged to use their own production capacities, even if they are not the best bang for the money.
HP has been outsourcing their production facilities from mid '90.
HP is already using Foxcon and other far-east manufacturers for some of their products, and I'm betting they have proved to do better than HP owned facilities.
At the end of the day, number of western companies are already doing the same - developing and designing, but not manufacturing their products in-house. Like Apple, for example. AMD.
Personally I think tablets will eventually replace PCs completely. Here's some bullet points:
- Anything a tablet can't do now because it doesn't have the CPU/GPU power, just wait until the next version. Eventually it'll be able to do it. The performance gap between tablet and laptop performance will close too, just like it has between desktop and laptop. Very few people need to choose a workstation over a laptop today.
That is possible, though, x86 parts (CPUs, GPUs) will progress as well. As long as power consumption is not critical (which is true for desktops and, to some degree, with laptops) x86 parts will have performance edge.
Quote:
- Touch is a superior interface to the mouse/trackpad. Touch is direct, the mouse/trackpad is indirect.
Only for some things. Mouse is more accurate, for example - you can position it before you click, and you know where exactly mouse pointer is. In addition, good luck with moving your hands over something like 24" vertical screen - your arms will not be happy for too long.
Quote:
- The whole physical keyboard thing is totally overblown. Most people don't type much. This has gotten a lot of press because the press happen to be a subset of the population who need to type a lot, fast. People got by with handwriting for centuries before keyboards became ubiquitous (and typing only really became ubiquitous with the PC and most people still can't do it very well). You can always add a bluetooth keyboard for when you're typing that novel anyway.
People got away with out cars or airplanes for ages, but good luck trying to take those away today
That aside... I work for company providing IT support for number of businesses here in NZ, and let me reassure you a lot of people are typing quite a bit over the 8 hours of work day. Emails, documents, tables... you name it. All day long.
Quote:
- They can make bigger tablets. Tablets could be paired with large external displays. Etc. There are a lot of ways to accommodate professionals.
I'd really hate idea of carrying 15" or bigger tablet. 19"? 24"? Makes me shiver. External display, mouse, keyboard... how's that really different from PC?
Quote:
- Most professionals I know maximise all their apps anyway. Not sure windows are really the incredible productivity feature people think they are.
That I agree with - I maximize my windows as well. I do run number of apps at the same time, and switch them from the task bar (so I don't need to see them at once on my screens). Of course I still need enough processing power, storage and memory in my machine if I don't want to make it bottleneck. Tablets might get that performance at some point, but then there will be no reason why not to use full-size OS on them, and then tablets will become PCs.
The PC isn't going anywhere. Graphic designers, accountants, print designers, gamers all need PC's and the tablet will never be able to handle the computing power or the screen size we need.
Also home users who want to edit their family videos (with huge HD cameras RAW footage), prosumer photographers with 16MP RAW images...
But truth is, PCs were shoved down the troath number of people who really never needed them. They will move away to tablets and never look back. Like my mom. Never got a grip on computer (not speaking English didn't help) but cannot leave iPad from her hands. It definitely is computer that works for her.
As a result, PC market will shrink a bit as that part of users pool move to tablets. But it is not going to keep shrinking into oblivion.
I think cameras is also an apt analogy. Until point and shoots came, SLRs were the only option. The point and shoots were never as good as SLRs, and may never be. But for most people they are good enuf, and today they are a bigger market then the SLRs. SLRs will never die, but their market is more niche than mainstream. Similar will be the fate of full fledged PCs I believe, while tablets will become ubiquitous.
- typing this from an iPad.
I am one of those who Uses a Windows PC at work, has a MacBook at home, and am using an iPad now. My wife, and mom just love the iPad and it is all they need.
You might be wrong there (or at least are making bad analogy) - I'm pretty sure Nikon makes more profit of their SLR cameras and accessories, maybe Canon as well. Also Sony did an extra mile to get themselves into SLR and is pushing very hard there.
It is not that SLRs sell more than P&Ss, they sell with bigger margins, and they sell additional gear you don't have for P&S - lenses, flashes, filters... think of them as MacBooks, even if they sell less, they make more money.
Oh c'mon. If there's blindly followed leader in IT, his name is Steve, but not Balmer
It seems to me that the comments Ballmer and Gates had about iPod, iPhone, iPad when they arrived were the opposite of 'blindly following'. And what about Palm's comments on the iPhone. And it must be possible to dig up some appropriate Dell comments as well. And all the pundits telling us a PC without a floppy drive would not sell? Etc. etc.
Blindly followed? Not at all. More like groping in the dark and falling over while shooting yourself in the foot all the while shouting that your progress is really good...
And remember, iTunes is only pre-installed on Macs. For the 84% of the world using Windows, this means not only waiting until you get home to your PC, but also downloading and installing iTunes before you can do anything with the iPad.
Although that is true for some people, it is not nearly 84%. The iPad is not a first Apple product device (IMO). Most people with Windows who have purchased an iPad most likely have previously bought an iPod, iPod Touch or an iPhone which means they already have iTunes installed along with their content organized.
Comments
Some folks might claim that the only way to bake a loaf of bread from scratch is to first create the universe. But most people are not flaming a-holes.
Carl Sagan is bothered by your viewpoint.
A little perspective may be helpful here:
Indeed, the iPad is an brick out of the box - it does nothing until you plug it into a computer. That's right, a PC, a "truck".
Sure, Steve says this will be fixed in the future, and also somewhere later on in that future there will be enough tablets sold to outnumber PCs. Or so we're being told by a company who bet the farm on that marketing proposition.
But look at those penetration numbers. That's a long ways away.
The iPad sets up in about 5 minutes -- out of the box, no [strings] pc attached.
An iPad iOS upgrade takes less than 30 minutes OTA -- no [strings] pc attached.
Yeah, that's a long ways away -- 30, maybe 60 days.
Or the same "plus" HP had in mind when they quit the entire PC industry while they were the market leaders?
Some of these people should read the news instead of their own talking points.
Encouraged by Ballmer's words ... AAPL might be a good buy tomorrow if it drops again or even stays where it is long enough. The P/E Ratio is ludicrous.
Jeez, it is so easy to believe something one really wants to believe.
HP is not quitting PC industry. HP is outsourcing their production plants. HP thinks owning production plants is not the best way to do business any more, so they want to do research and development, and let others do actual manufacturing. That way, HP can select manufacturing partner who can offer best deal, rather than be obliged to use their own production capacities, even if they are not the best bang for the money.
HP has been outsourcing their production facilities from mid '90.
HP is already using Foxcon and other far-east manufacturers for some of their products, and I'm betting they have proved to do better than HP owned facilities.
At the end of the day, number of western companies are already doing the same - developing and designing, but not manufacturing their products in-house. Like Apple, for example. AMD.
Personally I think tablets will eventually replace PCs completely. Here's some bullet points:
- Anything a tablet can't do now because it doesn't have the CPU/GPU power, just wait until the next version. Eventually it'll be able to do it. The performance gap between tablet and laptop performance will close too, just like it has between desktop and laptop. Very few people need to choose a workstation over a laptop today.
That is possible, though, x86 parts (CPUs, GPUs) will progress as well. As long as power consumption is not critical (which is true for desktops and, to some degree, with laptops) x86 parts will have performance edge.
- Touch is a superior interface to the mouse/trackpad. Touch is direct, the mouse/trackpad is indirect.
Only for some things. Mouse is more accurate, for example - you can position it before you click, and you know where exactly mouse pointer is. In addition, good luck with moving your hands over something like 24" vertical screen - your arms will not be happy for too long.
- The whole physical keyboard thing is totally overblown. Most people don't type much. This has gotten a lot of press because the press happen to be a subset of the population who need to type a lot, fast. People got by with handwriting for centuries before keyboards became ubiquitous (and typing only really became ubiquitous with the PC and most people still can't do it very well). You can always add a bluetooth keyboard for when you're typing that novel anyway.
People got away with out cars or airplanes for ages, but good luck trying to take those away today
That aside... I work for company providing IT support for number of businesses here in NZ, and let me reassure you a lot of people are typing quite a bit over the 8 hours of work day. Emails, documents, tables... you name it. All day long.
- They can make bigger tablets. Tablets could be paired with large external displays. Etc. There are a lot of ways to accommodate professionals.
I'd really hate idea of carrying 15" or bigger tablet. 19"? 24"? Makes me shiver. External display, mouse, keyboard... how's that really different from PC?
- Most professionals I know maximise all their apps anyway. Not sure windows are really the incredible productivity feature people think they are.
That I agree with - I maximize my windows as well. I do run number of apps at the same time, and switch them from the task bar (so I don't need to see them at once on my screens). Of course I still need enough processing power, storage and memory in my machine if I don't want to make it bottleneck. Tablets might get that performance at some point, but then there will be no reason why not to use full-size OS on them, and then tablets will become PCs.
Exactly right.
What Apple haters don't get is Apple will continue with Macs successfully into the post PC era while traditional Windoze boxes die off as with HP.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6Qd9VR1gD8
Lemmings come to mind.
Oh c'mon. If there's blindly followed leader in IT, his name is Steve, but not Balmer
The PC isn't going anywhere. Graphic designers, accountants, print designers, gamers all need PC's and the tablet will never be able to handle the computing power or the screen size we need.
Also home users who want to edit their family videos (with huge HD cameras RAW footage), prosumer photographers with 16MP RAW images...
But truth is, PCs were shoved down the troath number of people who really never needed them. They will move away to tablets and never look back. Like my mom. Never got a grip on computer (not speaking English didn't help) but cannot leave iPad from her hands. It definitely is computer that works for her.
As a result, PC market will shrink a bit as that part of users pool move to tablets. But it is not going to keep shrinking into oblivion.
Nonsense.
Apple Cloud services are provided mainly by Microsoft Azure platforms.
In addition, Microsoft's SkyDrive (and whole MSLive) is more than capable platform for everything-Windows synergy.
I think cameras is also an apt analogy. Until point and shoots came, SLRs were the only option. The point and shoots were never as good as SLRs, and may never be. But for most people they are good enuf, and today they are a bigger market then the SLRs. SLRs will never die, but their market is more niche than mainstream. Similar will be the fate of full fledged PCs I believe, while tablets will become ubiquitous.
- typing this from an iPad.
I am one of those who Uses a Windows PC at work, has a MacBook at home, and am using an iPad now. My wife, and mom just love the iPad and it is all they need.
You might be wrong there (or at least are making bad analogy) - I'm pretty sure Nikon makes more profit of their SLR cameras and accessories, maybe Canon as well. Also Sony did an extra mile to get themselves into SLR and is pushing very hard there.
It is not that SLRs sell more than P&Ss, they sell with bigger margins, and they sell additional gear you don't have for P&S - lenses, flashes, filters... think of them as MacBooks, even if they sell less, they make more money.
Oh c'mon. If there's blindly followed leader in IT, his name is Steve, but not Balmer
It seems to me that the comments Ballmer and Gates had about iPod, iPhone, iPad when they arrived were the opposite of 'blindly following'. And what about Palm's comments on the iPhone. And it must be possible to dig up some appropriate Dell comments as well. And all the pundits telling us a PC without a floppy drive would not sell? Etc. etc.
Blindly followed? Not at all. More like groping in the dark and falling over while shooting yourself in the foot all the while shouting that your progress is really good...
And remember, iTunes is only pre-installed on Macs. For the 84% of the world using Windows, this means not only waiting until you get home to your PC, but also downloading and installing iTunes before you can do anything with the iPad.
Although that is true for some people, it is not nearly 84%. The iPad is not a first Apple product device (IMO). Most people with Windows who have purchased an iPad most likely have previously bought an iPod, iPod Touch or an iPhone which means they already have iTunes installed along with their content organized.