18.8M iPhone 3GS users expected to upgrade to Apple's iPhone 4S

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
A new analysis projects that 18.8 million iPhone 3GS users will upgrade to the iPhone 4S in the next year, accounting for 18 percent of Apple's sales.



Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray believes that most users who bought an iPhone 3GS before the iPhone 4 went on sale will make the upgrade in the next year. He has estimated there are 27.6 million iPhone 3GS users who are ready to upgrade their smartphone.



Munster's numbers are based on what he calls "several conservative assumptions" regarding sales and upgrades. If 25 percent of those users upgraded early to the iPhone 4 and 15 percent switched platforms to Android, that would leave 18.8 million left who would buy an iPhone 4S.



In August, Munster revealed the results of a small poll of 216 mobile phone users, in which he found a near-perfect retention rate among iPhone customers. The survey found that 94 percent of current iPhone customers said they expect to replace their iPhone with a better model in the future, rather than switching to another platform like Android.



That number well exceeded Android users, as only 47 percent of those polled indicated they expected to buy another Android device. Among Android users, Munster found that 42 percent planned to switch to the iPhone.



Munster's estimate of iPhone 3GS "upgraders" does not include any existing users of the first-generation iPhone, the iPhone 3G, or the iPhone 4.







In all, he sees Apple selling 104.4 million iPhones in its 2012 fiscal year. That would be a 35 percent increase from 2011, much less than the year-over-year increases of more than 90 percent that Apple has seen over the last two years.



Piper Jaffray has reiterated its "overweight" rating for AAPL stock. The firm has maintained its price target of $607.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 77
    cash907cash907 Posts: 893member
    Who runs this site anyway, Munster's PR agent?
  • Reply 2 of 77
    Probably his cousin, Herman.
  • Reply 3 of 77
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    I heard that with all the great new Android phones coming to market and Apple screwing their customer base yet again with an old, flawed design that the iPhone 4S will be a flop.
  • Reply 4 of 77
    I heard his first cousin once removed, Eddie, writes the copy.
  • Reply 5 of 77
    christophbchristophb Posts: 1,453member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I heard that with all the great new Android phones coming to market and Apple screwing their customer base yet again with an old, flawed design that the iPhone 4S will be a flop.



    And all those iPhone 3GS phones will be unlocked and moved to tmobile.



    Edit: Hmmm. Is "iPhones 3GS" the correct plural?
  • Reply 6 of 77
    bagmanbagman Posts: 349member
    Geez, why would anyone buy a phone that looks like its predecessor?



    (oh, wait - I just ordered 2).



    However, I've kept the balance in the universe by selling the "old" phones on Ebay, so all is right with universe.
  • Reply 7 of 77
    Check your hearing
  • Reply 7 of 77
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post


    probably his cousin, herman.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ironheadslim View Post


    i heard his first cousin once removed, eddie, writes the copy.



    love it!!!!
  • Reply 9 of 77
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I heard that with all the great new Android phones coming to market and Apple screwing their customer base yet again with an old, flawed design that the iPhone 4S will be a flop.



    And then it got 1 million pre-orders in 24 hours. I would kill for a flop as bad as the iPhone 4S.
  • Reply 10 of 77
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by IronHeadSlim View Post


    I heard his first cousin once removed, Eddie, writes the copy.



  • Reply 11 of 77
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I heard that with all the great new Android phones coming to market and Apple screwing their customer base yet again with an old, flawed design that the iPhone 4S will be a flop.



    You got it. Great Android phones, a shitty iPhone announcement, and Jobs' passing will run Apple into the ground.



    (Yet the stock is up over $400 again. Imagine that.)
  • Reply 12 of 77
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ChristophB View Post


    And all those iPhone 3GS phones will be unlocked and moved to tmobile.



    Edit: Hmmm. Is "iPhones 3GS" the correct plural?



    You added phones for the plural to avoid any uncertainty but I think iPhones 3GSes would also work for plural, though it looks odd to me. It can get confusing when you want to make the earlier version possessive, as in 'the iPhone 3G's camera?" to refer to the 2nd gen iPhone.
  • Reply 13 of 77
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sticknick View Post


    You got it. Great Android phones, a shitty iPhone announcement, and Jobs' passing will run Apple into the ground.



    (Yet the stock is up over $400 again. Imagine that.)



    I had sold at $420 a few weeks back and bought back in at $355. I'm a happy camper.
  • Reply 14 of 77
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I heard that with all the great new Android phones coming to market and Apple screwing their customer base yet again with an old, flawed design that the iPhone 4S will be a flop.



    did people say it was going to flop? really? idiots. lol.



    I've seen people say they were disappointed...but once you look past the hype of it all it was kind of obvious a 4S was more likely than a 5.



    I guess the 18 month wait they may have expected something truly ground breaking unaware that sometimes the most amazing things come in the same package.
  • Reply 15 of 77
    8002580025 Posts: 172member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    A new analysis projects that 18.8 million iPhone 3GS users will upgrade to the iPhone 4S in the next year, accounting for 18 percent of Apple's sales..



    Yet another meaningless survey with seemingly zero validity and reliability. <sigh>
  • Reply 16 of 77
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AbsoluteDesignz View Post


    love it!!!!



    I'm just curious.



    What motivated you to remove the capitalization from my response when you quoted it?



    Capitalization has real functions: it notifies the reader of a new sentence and also highlights proper names. I put it there for a reason.
  • Reply 17 of 77
    I like how they carefully came up with exactly 18.8 million while in the chart they are guessing at how many have already upgraded.
  • Reply 18 of 77
    Yeah, anyway, what going on here?!





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post


    I'm just curious.



    What motivated you to remove the capitalization from my response when you quoted it?



    Capitalization has real functions: it notifies the reader of a new sentence and also highlights proper names. I put it there for a reason.



  • Reply 19 of 77
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AbsoluteDesignz View Post


    did people say it was going to flop? really? idiots. lol.



    I've seen people say they were disappointed...but once you look past the hype of it all it was kind of obvious a 4S was more likely than a 5.



    I guess the 18 month wait they may have expected something truly ground breaking unaware that sometimes the most amazing things come in the same package.



    iPhone design was and is perfect. How does one improve perfect?
  • Reply 20 of 77
    Well, im not in the US but I am on 3GS and I'll be upgrading. Still can't make up my mind about which deal/package to go. Probably going to buy the SIM free version if enough money is available.



    So, there's some truth to that prediction.
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