Analyst casts doubt on Nokia's Windows Phone hopes

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
One analyst has drastically reduced shipment projections for Nokia's Windows Phone devices on the belief that the handset maker is unlikely to gain traction with its new lineup.



Pacific Crest Securities analyst James Faucette issued a research note on Tuesday cutting his sales forecast for Nokia's Windows Phone device sales from two million to as low as 500,000 units on concerns that they will fail to live up to expectations, as noted by The New York Times.



?With no breakthrough innovation, we believe Nokia?s new phones are unlikely to get traction in a highly concentrated high end,? he said, adding that the Lumia smartphones are not competitive on price or performance.



After announcing its partnership with Microsoft back in February, the world's largest handset maker unveiled the fruits of its labor, the Lumia 800 and the Lumia 710, last month. Both models are rolling out across Europe this month and are expected to arrive in Asia in early 2012.



Nokia's new Lumia 800 (left) and Lumia 710 are its first Windows Phones.



U.S. carrier AT&T has said it is close to reaching an agreement with Nokia to begin selling its Windows Phone offerings early next year. But, one executive for the company candidly admitted that he foresees "challenges" for Microsoft's platform because of competition from Apple and Google.



For its part, Nokia maintains that the level of preorders in the U.K. "has been higher for Lumia than any previous handset." Company spokesman Ray Haddow said that pre-sale numbers have led the company to be "very positive" about the Lumia 800.



Though Nokia still maintains a significant lead in global handset shipments, its share of the market slipped 5 percent year over year, according to Strategy Analytics. When it comes to smartphones, however, Nokia has fallen from the top to third place, behind Samsung and Apple, after losing more than half its global smartphone market share over the past year.



Microsoft is relying heavily on its new partner to build momentum for the Windows Phone platform. Recent third-quarter figures from Gartner show that the Microsoft's share of worldwide smartphone OS sales slid to 1.5 percent, down from 2.7 percent in 2010. Earlier this month, the software giant installed a 55-foot Windows Phone replica in a New York City park in an attempt to garner support for the platform.



During an annual Financial Analyst Meeting in September, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said the company hadn't "sold quite as many" Windows Phones for the first year as he would have liked, though he did note that there was "enthusiasm" for the platform, according to AllThingsD.



?I am not saying I love where we are, but I am very optimistic about where we can be,? he said. ?We just have to kick this thing to the next level.?
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 67
    Financial Analysts, where everyone has turned for legit tech predictions since..............uh, never
  • Reply 2 of 67
    kotatsukotatsu Posts: 1,010member
    I see a fair few ads in shop windows for the Lumia 800 here in the UK, probably more than for any single Android device.



    I usually gauge how successful a phone is by how many I see on the train on my journey to work - I've watched the transition from wall to wall iPhones, to mostly Blackberrys, to the current state of a pretty even mix of iPhone, Blackberry, and Android. I've only ever seen a Windows Phone device once, so I'll be keeping an eye out or any Lumia 800s in the wild.
  • Reply 3 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by kotatsu View Post


    ... I've watched the transition from wall to wall iPhones, to mostly Blackberrys....



    Say what?
  • Reply 4 of 67
    chabigchabig Posts: 624member
    What did Ballmer say? "I'd prefer to have our software on 60-70-80% of phones than 3-4%, which is what Apple might get".
  • Reply 5 of 67
    richlrichl Posts: 2,213member
    The Lumia 800 seems to be doing very well in the UK.
  • Reply 6 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RichL View Post


    The Lumia 800 seems to be doing very well in the UK.



    Yeah, I am sure they have sold tens of dozens. People like to say M$ is in this for the long game, but if they don'tmgain traction soon with their phones, I doubt they will stay in the phone business. Investors will get tired of a division constantly in the red and demand it gets cut.
  • Reply 7 of 67
    The more steve-e-e speaks out about the phone running MS OS fewer "N" phones will be sold.
  • Reply 8 of 67
    Stick a fork in this thing - it's already done.



    By the time Nokia and MS get something halfway decent out the door the iPhone 5 will be on sale. They're about three years too late to this party.



    Doomed.



    Nokia is the next RIM.
  • Reply 9 of 67
    As my girlfriend (who represents the average consumer) said so wonderfully about the HTC Titan, "It doesn't feel like a phone or computer, it feels real and natural."



    WP7 is an incredible operating system for the average consumer despite some shortcomings us tech-inclined people see (I won't buy a phone without built-in voice navigation, for example). What WP7 lacked is a major manufacturer backing it up fully. Nokia has solved this issue partially, although it may be a bit too late in the United States for obvious reasons. Internationally though, I wouldn't be surprised to see WP7 catch up to iOS very quickly, Nokia has quite the reputation outside of the US.



    Still, everything I say is speculation so why am I not on the front page? What's the point of publishing what an analyst says? They know nothing more than we do and any advanced ability is overshadowed by the fact that the variance in their calculations is almost entirely accounted for by speculation.
  • Reply 10 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sunspot42 View Post


    Stick a fork in this thing - it's already done.



    By the time Nokia and MS get something halfway decent out the door the iPhone 5 will be on sale. They're about three years too late to this party.



    Doomed.



    Nokia is the next RIM.



    Indeed. This is a market where a few weeks of delay in product launch is a death sentence. Here we are talking about years ! Meanwhile, Apple continues to make its products even more appealing ...
  • Reply 11 of 67
    If you want something new or different they look very good. But I suspect if you've invested in lots of applications on IOS it will be harder to swap.
  • Reply 12 of 67
    kotatsukotatsu Posts: 1,010member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post


    Say what?



    That's what I saw. There was a time when pretty much everyone on my commuter train had an iPhone, then it genuinely went mostly Blackberry. Weird but true. Even now I still see a LOT of Blackberrys here in the UK. For some reason they remain very popular. Lots of Blackberry ads around too.
  • Reply 13 of 67
    I think the 800 loves pretty good. My first colour cell phone was a Nokia and I used to love their models. If I was to go back to a different phone from the iPhone, I would probably go back to Nokia. My second preference would be Sony-Ericcson.



    But I am a practical example of Steve Jobs' theory. I bought the iPod 3rd Gen and that got me interested in an iPhone and then I bought an iMac, a MBP, the iPads and an MBA for my wife. I really don't see myself going back to a non-Apple environment, apart from where it is inevitable, like using Windows at work (with Bootcamp).
  • Reply 14 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by kotatsu View Post


    I see a fair few ads in shop windows for the Lumia 800 here in the UK, probably more than for any single Android device.



    I usually gauge how successful a phone is by how many I see on the train on my journey to work - I've watched the transition from wall to wall iPhones, to mostly Blackberrys, to the current state of a pretty even mix of iPhone, Blackberry, and Android. I've only ever seen a Windows Phone device once, so I'll be keeping an eye out or any Lumia 800s in the wild.



    "from wall to wall iPhones, to mostly Blackberrys". Where on earth do you get trains in the UK?



    I see mostly iPhones on my train journeys, in the West Midlands and M40 corridor, and have done since 2008-9. Only before 2009 was it "mostly Blackberries".
  • Reply 15 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by chabig View Post


    What did Ballmer say? "I'd prefer to have our software on 60-70-80% of phones than 3-4%, which is what Apple might get".



    LOL, yes, what a buffoon!



    Apple now has closer to the 60% of [smart]phones (most of what Nokia calls smartphones really don't count as they are only slightly enhanced Symbian candy-bar phones), versus Microsoft which I'm pretty sure has less than the 3-4% he baulked at for Apple :P



    When are the shareholders going to boot the idiot out and put someone with a clue in charge?



    Microsoft should be way more focused/innovative than it currently is, they rarely "push the envelope "any more, and I'm genuinely saddened by the fact.
  • Reply 16 of 67
    Where's my tissue? I need to wipe a tear from my eye.



    Ok. I'm ready to go.



    Sure, Microsoft will sell a few phones, but who cares? The odds of them derailing the Android train are slim to none.



    If Ballmer seriously thinks Microsoft can pull one out of the bag, I'll have a hit of whatever he's smoking. From here on out, Microsoft will always be playing third fiddle.



    Heck, even Apple will be in tough. Unless Apple can turn the tide in the new year, 2012 will be the year Android pulls away from the pack.



    Don't let me down Mr. Cook.
  • Reply 17 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RedPill View Post


    always



    Heck, even Apple will be in tough. Unless Apple can turn the tide in the new year, 2012 will be the year Android pulls away from the pack.



    Don't let me down Mr. Cook.




    You do not have a larger font ?
  • Reply 18 of 67
    From Germany:



    The Nokia Windows phones will more than likely take roughly 50% of the market here very shortly when they are released. Germans LOVE Nokia... even though Nokia built a plant a few years ago with govt. money and then later shut it down, releasing it's "guarenteed jobs" to the streets. Not nice, but didn't, and still doesn't, affect people's trust and purchase of a decent Nokia phone.



    The word is out on Android devices: cheap and worse security than WindowsXP; nobody wants to deal with that! Warnings on every front page media, web and print recently.



    iOS: still chugging along for those in the know and from certain "consultants" ~ ~ that steer them in the right direction. I'd guesstimate a solid 40% in the future. That's smartphones BTW.



    Truth is, most people are still content with... yes... their Nokia feature phones. Many people (private consumers) can't justify the price and contract of a "real" Smartphone. On the other hand, business people love the iPhone, because they can deduct the entire cost from their business expenses and taxes.



    I do believe the tech guys in IT will jump all over the Windows phone, and forcefully "recommend" it over the iPhone... just because they still feel most comfortable in that "arena".



    HOWEVER... it is amazing how many Macs one sees on TV in report shows: doctors, lawyers, teachers... even quite a few consumers. Apple is definitely getting noticed and used outside of the traditional publishing, printing and media industries. I'm always proud to be a part of, and help with, that transition
  • Reply 19 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post


    Say what?



    I'm as puzzled as you.
  • Reply 20 of 67
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 1,929member
    Steve ballmer is an idiot but I feel sorry for the MS employees who created WP7, sort of like how I feel sorry for the creators of OS2.



    As with OS2, WP7 appears to be a better product than the market-share leader (in this case android), yet WP7 faces the immense challenge of gaining traction in a rapidly maturing market.



    Unless android collapses due to patent issues, the lumia 800 is probably WP7's last chance.
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