# Android device activations reach 700,000 per day

Posts: 19,566member
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot

Well that 4.4% growth rate didn't last very long!

Rubin stated 500k activations on June 28th, 2011. That's week 26, this is week 51 for a difference of 25 weeks.

So we have A = P (1 + r) ^n, right?

500,000 ( 1 + 4.4/100) ^ 26 = 1,531,733 activations per day if they were maintaining a 4.4% growth rate per week.
Posts: 24,104member
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX

Google stated 550k activations on June 28th, 2011. That's week 26, this is week 51 for a difference of 25 weeks.

So we have A = P (1 + r) ^n, right?

550,000 ( 1 + 4.4/100) ^ 26 = 1,684,906 activations per day if they were maintaining a 4.4% growth rate per week.

A tweet doesn't allow much detail on 4.4% growth note. I don't see where anyone followed up to ask him whether that was week over week (highly unlikely IMO) month over month (reasonable and likely IMO) or something else.

EDIT: I see some blogs reported at the time that he was claiming 4.4% per week. I'd personally guess that was a mistaken or misstated timeframe, as figuring it compounded month over month, five months since the 550K was announced would bring us to 682k/day as of Nov 28th or thereabouts.
Posts: 19,566member
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy

A tweet doesn't allow much detail on 4.4% growth note. I don't see where anyone followed up to ask him whether that was week over week (highly unlikely IMO) month over month (reasonable and likely IMO) or something else.

What else do you think "4.4% w/w" means?

PS: I can't figure out how to calculate the w/w average it has grown in the 26 past weeks but I think that would mean a 1.30% w/w growth rate.
Posts: 2,789member
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider

However, with the addition of sales of Amazon's Kindle Fire in the fourth quarter, the iPad is expected to drop to 59 percent market share.

And Google won't benefit at all from Kindle Fire. Amazon has cut out the "profit layer" of Android 2.3 and replaced it with their own. Google gets absolutely nothing from the deal, other than a generic "activations per day" number for use in their marketing copy.

Come to think of it, there was no deal between Amazon and Google, was there? Google dumped Android onto the market. Free. Open. Amazon took the ball and ran with it, and now they have the only successful Android-based pad computer. And Google hates it.

Google hates the Kindle Fire and its fork of Android for many reasons. Amazon sends zero revenue to Google from direct e-book, media, and other sales. They send zero customer contact information, zero purchase history and product affinity data, and zero browsing history back to Google. Amazon even has a separate and incompatible App Store, so apps previously purchased from Android Market on other Android devices aren't allowed to run on Kindle Fire. And Amazon sells the Fire at a loss to achieve a low price point. They can do this because revenue earned from the device from content sales more than makes up for the initial loss. And it puts the hurt on any and all other Android-based pad makers because they're also going to be forced to sell their pads at a loss. Without Amazon's ecosystem to recoup the losses. Kindle Fire has locked up the low end (aka "The Android End") of the market. Apple locked up the high end in 2010. There's no niche left to sell into.

But worst of all, Amazon controls all ads on Kindle Fire. 96% of Google's revenue comes from ads. Do the math, Sergey.

Proprietary. Closed. The inevitable fate of Android in the pad space.
Posts: 1,887member
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy

None of this probably matters as there's some segment who would refuse to believe any numbers that weren't published directly by Apple. Another inconvenient truth apparently.

Steve said that our friends are cooking their books. That is good enough for some.

His calculated FUD had far-reaching effects, and still forms the basis for many a shibboleth.
Posts: 24,104member
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX

What else do you think "4.4% w/w" means?

w/w possibly meant World-wide rather than week over week.
Posts: 19,566member
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy

w/w possibly meant World-wide rather than week over week.

For fuck's sake!
Posts: 432member
Quote:
Originally Posted by slapppy

Well, now it's has come to the point that Apple cannot announce activation numbers anymore. Android is overtaking much faster than anyone anticipated. It seems as though Apple can never get ahead no matter what they produce. Except for iTunes and iPod, everything else flames out or ends up 2nd, 3rd or stuck as a niche player.

Well, other than the fact that Android growth seems to be slowing...

To quote, "Analytics firm Millennial Media, the second-largest mobile advertising platform behind Google, on Tuesday, released its monthly Mobile Mix report for November. Similar to their October survey that saw Android?s growth slowing (and iOS gaining). Compared to the summer period for November, both Apple?s and Research in Motion?s respective platform grew at the expense of Google. Specifically, Android went from 56 percent ad requests in October to 50 percent in November.

Meanwhile, iOS went from 28 percent ad requests in October to 30 percent in November. The BlackBerry platform recorded the biggest gain of all mobile platforms, increasing its share of ad requests from 13 percent in October to 17 percent in November. Because both iOS and BlackBerry grew their combined ad impressions by six percentage points, the same amount Android lost in the period, it is safe to assume that Apple and Research In Motion gained traction at the expense of Google?s mobile platform.

The findings are in stark contrast to the seemingly unstoppable Android growth that appears to have slowed down during the crucial holiday sales period. Android in November doubled iOS in ad impressions, but last month ? its respective share changed to 50 percent for Android versus 30 percent for iOS. "

Posts: 24,104member
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX

For fuck's sake!

Obviously nothing about 4.4% compounded would be even remotely possible week over week. Yet 4.4% month over month makes eminent sense and actually occurred. In the absence of other evidence the most simple explanation is often the right one.
Posts: 1,887member
Quote:
Originally Posted by bryanl

Well that really depends. Comparing a Hyundai Genesis R Spec with a base model C class (or any C class sans the C63), I would definitely rather drive the Hyundai. (Car analogies don't really work when comparing computers)

How about choosing between a Best-selling midsized car, such as a Camry, and the comparable Hyundai?

That would be the comparison between the iPhone and maybe a Kyocera phone.

If you compare a Camry with an exotic sports car, that is like comparing the iPhone with the newer Samsung, HTC and Motorola phones.

Just saying.
Posts: 175member
Lot of factors. I suspect lots of new Android users are switching to a smartphone for the first time. The big losers are the Windows phone makers and Blackberry. Lots of manufacturers make Android phones (there are probably more):

Sony Ericsson

HTC

Samsung

Casio

Kyocera

LG

Motorola

All the many Android based models are competing individually with the iPhone. An Android phone sale is a plus for Google, no doubt, but a Casio Android phone is just as much a loss for HTC as it is for Apple. Google does not make anywhere near the money on a sale of a Android based phone that Apple does on an iPhone.

Cost and new consumers also play a part. A salesperson might prefer or be familiar with a certain phone...there are dozens and just a few iPhone models... and recommend that to a new customer.

The Android phones are sometimes free, too. One might reasonably decide the iPhone and an Android phone have about the same functionality, and choose the free Android phone.

There seems to be plenty of market out there for both. This is good for both Apple and Google. Not all of the Android handset makers will see great success, though.
Posts: 5,686member
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy

Obviously nothing about 4.4% compounded would be even remotely possible week over week. Yet 4.4% month over month makes eminent sense and actually occurred. In the absence of other evidence the most simple explanation is often the right one.

But thats not what he said. He said, w/w - which meant, in that context week over week. He said growing w/w at 4% , which makes no sense if it meant worldwide.

So Android growth is slowing, and Rubin tends to always signal the high sales just before Christmas - just last year before Christmas he said 300K p/w.

Apple have pretty much locked down the tablet in the Enterprise, and the mid-level to high level tablet market. As that grows, and iPhones become cheaper, the game is still on. i can see Apple coming back, this isn't really bad news.
Posts: 19,566member
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy

Obviously nothing about 4.4% compounded would be even remotely possible week over week. Yet 4.4% month over month makes eminent sense and actually occurred. In the absence of other evidence the most simple explanation is often the right one.

May 10th, 2011 (Week 19) — 400,000 (source)

June 28th, 2011 (Week 26) —500,000 (source)

Difference is 5 weeks.

400,000 ( 1 + 4.4/100) ^ 5 = 496,092 activations per day with a 4.4% growth rate week over week.

So what we've seen since the iPhone 4S announcement and release is a drop from 4.4% to 1.3% week over week. I expect it to go back up as the current iPhone model moves toward the end of its cycle, but that is still a significant drop off and why Rubin didn't mention it this time around.

PS: I think I deserve a gold star for showing all my work. Too bad Google's executives can't do the same.
Posts: 12,527member
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy

With that said, he probably was referencing a rumored move to the Intel Medford chipsets IMO.

http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/39378/page1/

Supposedly much less power-hungry, capable of playing Blue-ray quality video, direct streaming to TV's, much faster camera performance than current devices, etc.

As mentioned a couple of other places, ignore the very iPhone-like appearance. The image is a reference device and not anything slated for production and sale. . .

Unless Samsung is taken with it.

That is an interesting review -- although lacking any details!

I wonder if this chip is what MS is counting on for Windows 8 Everywhere -- especially tablets..

MS has admitted that Windows 8 ARM will not run Windows 8 Desktop apps unless they are recompiled for the ARM architecture.

Even then, to go from a multi-window, kb/mouse UI to a single-window touch UI you must re-think and re-implement most apps...

So, even if MS can run legacy desktop apps on a Windows 8 x86 Tablet -- this doesn't doesn't necessarily guarantee success. Likely we're back to the same MS Tablet/Stylus implementations that have failed for the last 10 years.

To use the car/truck analogy -- A tablet running Windows [8] desktop is like using a sports car to tow a truck.
Posts: 86member
Quote:
Originally Posted by Postulant

Isn't Apple's market cap second only to Exxon?

That is true with \$630 profit on each computer they sell.

Now, the apple corpo PR team should somehow make you feel even more special if you leave them \$1000 profit on every apple-pc machine. In that case they would easily destroy Exxon.

Quote:
Originally Posted by genovelle

HP and dell makes \$89 on each computer they sell. While Apple makes \$630.

Posts: 24,104member
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX

May 10th, 2011 (Week 19) ? 400,000 (source)

June 28th, 2011 (Week 26) ?500,000 (source)

Difference is 5 weeks.

400,000 ( 1 + 4.4/100) ^ 5 = 496,092 activations per day with a 4.4% growth rate week over week. . .

PS: I think I deserve a gold star for showing all my work. Too bad Google's executives can't do the same.

Yes you do. Based on your figures the 4.4% growth rate may have been accurate at the time, and my supposition may well be incorrect.

Circle the calendar for this date. . .

You're probably right, an I'm probably wrong.
Posts: 12,527member
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX

What else do you think "4.4% w/w" means?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy

w/w possibly meant World-wide rather than week over week.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX

For fuck's sake!

Sorry guys...

It is not W / W

It is W | W

It represents the large "W" that Rubin had tattooed on each butt cheek...

And, when Andy bends over...

W O W
Posts: 660member
Quote:
Originally Posted by slapppy

Just ask Apple with Macintosh vs Windows when Apple mad huge profits per product. What happened there? They lost. OSX and forced to switch to Intel chips to allow Windows to work on their hardware is what saved them. Yes Windows on a Mac. Pretty sad actually.

Apple's issue in the 1990s was mismanagement, not a lack of market share. Pepsi and Avis do just fine as the #2 players in large markets. Ford (#2 in the US) was the only US automaker that didn't go bankrupt in 2009.

Apple's biggest operational issue was that they used proprietary parts and had supply issues. By switching to Intel, they have easy supply access, and can promote compatibility, to boot. Their biggest strategic issue was not having CEOs who could develop new products. Instead, they got complacent. That can happen to a company in the top spot (e.g. GM) just as easily as a company in the #2 spot.
Posts: 1,346member
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX

Google stated 550k activations on June 28th, 2011. That's week 26, this is week 51 for a difference of 25 weeks.

So we have A = P (1 + r) ^n, right?

500,000 ( 1 + 4.4/100) ^ 26 = 1,531,733 activations per day if they were maintaining a 4.4% growth rate per week.

I thought that your job here was to put an end to misinformation?
Posts: 20,401member
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2oh1

The only thing that really matters is how much Apple profits from the sale of each iOS device, and how much developers make from their apps. Android can have a 500% lead and it won't matter if Apple is making money and if developers earn more by developing for iOS than Android. Until Android finds a way to stop pirating of apps, iOS will have better apps and better apps are a big part of a better user experience.

It's as simple as that.

For all its vaunted market share, look at the ravaged wasteland of a business called "Making Windows PCs."

Quite laughable, really, this obsession with market share. It's the Walmart worldview.