20 million iPad sales projected for Apple's June quarter

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Apple is poised to report record breaking sales of 20 million iPads in the just-concluded June quarter, one analyst believes.

Charlie Wolf with Needham & Company issued a note to investors on Thursday in which he increased his June iPad shipment forecast from 13.5 million units to 20 million units. He admitted that his initial estimate made in April was "hastily formulated," which is why his latest prediction is so much larger.

"In our view, it's only a matter of time before iPad shipments exceed iPhone shipments," Wolf said. "The iPad is invading the business market at a much faster pace than the iPhone. In addition, the iPad will launch in China on July 20th. This should provide a significant boost in sales now that Apple is providing Chinese languages and services on its iOS platform."

If Wolf's prediction proves accurate and Apple does report sales of 20 million iPads in the June quarter, that number would be more than double the 9.25 million iPads Apple sold in the same quarter a year ago. It would also be a new record for iPad sales in any quarter, handily besting the 15 million iPads Apple sold in the holiday shopping season of 2011.

Wolf believes iPad sales have been particularly strong to both businesses and education institutions. He also believes the $399 16-gigabyte iPad 2 has been a major seller for Apple.

New iPad


As for the iPhone, Wolf also increased his June quarter estimate to 28 million units, up from his previous prediction of 27 million shipped. It's expected that iPhone sales fell from the 35 million units Apple shipped in the March quarter.

"The assumption underlying our forecast of a sequential quarterly decline is that some customers have begun to postpone their purchases of an iPhone 4S in advance of a much widely publicized introduction of the new iPhone this fall," Wolf wrote.

Apple will report earnings for its third fiscal quarter of 2012 during a conference call on Tuesday, July 24, at 2 p.m. Pacific, 5 p.m. Eastern. AppleInsider will have full, live coverage of the call.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 50
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    <vc><strong>Apple is poised to report record breaking sales of 20 million iPads in the just-concluded June quarter, one analyst believes.</strong>
    Charlie Wolf with Needham & Company issued a note to investors on Thursday in which he increased his June iPad shipment forecast from 13.5 million units to 20 million units. He admitted that his initial estimate made in April was "hastily formulated," which is why his latest prediction is so much larger.

    So we're supposed to take the word of someone who admits that his previous forecasts where hasty formulations? Why would we believe that he did a better job on this one?

    Furthemore, wasn't there just an article that another analyst predicted that iPad sales would be lower?

    Why not just admit that the big name analysts don't do any better than simply throwing a dart at the wall?
  • Reply 2 of 50
    island hermitisland hermit Posts: 6,217member


    If this turns out to be true then I find this absolutely amazing. I've put the number at 14 million. I realize the RD v3 came out this year but I just couldn't see Apple besting the holiday quarter numbers until the next holiday quarter.


     


    I'm sure that if the number is over 15 million then it has to be businesses that are driving the sales.

     

  • Reply 3 of 50
    cvaldes1831cvaldes1831 Posts: 1,832member


    We know AppleInsider usually avoids mentioning the track record of its sources -- perhaps the most important and relevant piece of data regarding such posts -- and Charlie Wolf is one of those sources with a poor track record.


     


    Wolf is not a four- or five-star rated analyst according to Starmine (a service which rates the financial predictions accuracy of professional financial analysts). Note that oft-quoted analysts like Munster, Wu, and Huberty also fail to make the grade, yet AppleInsider blissfully ignores they repeatedly poor track records.


     


    That said, Charlie Wolf may be changing his ways. His predictions have gotten incrementally better over the past year according to Philip Elmer-Dewitt's chart:


     


    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/01/25/apples-blow-out-quarter-once-again-the-street-blew-it/


     


    Whether or not Wolf's recent improvement is a real trend or just a one-time fluke remains to be seen. Wise readers will remain highly skeptical.


     


    In no way to the professional analysts as a whole outclass the accuracy of the bulk of amateur Apple analysts.


     


    I'd take Wolf's prediction with a large grain of salt as well as any financial prediction that AppleInsider reflags. As a matter of fact, it's statistically more likely that any financial performance prediction that AppleInsider posts will be wrong. They prefer to post the predictions of analysts who are crushingly bad at predicting Apple performance, and the professional financial analyst pool's record is pretty awful to begin with.


     


    Of course, just drive great for sacrifice at the altar of the Temple of Almighty Pageviews, which is why this financial analyst prediction garbage is prominently posted on tech media sites.

  • Reply 4 of 50
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    I wish tech reporters would have a rule that would only note the top 5 (or so) analysts from the last quarter. If the Internets did this then perhaps they would try harder to be more accurate so they can get automatic recognition the next quarter.
  • Reply 5 of 50
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,755member


    With Apple entering new markets and needing to push iPads into those channels, which as a rule is counted as a sale, I don't see 20M as unreachable. How many were shipped just to China, regardless whether they've actually been sold to an end-user yet.

  • Reply 6 of 50
    cvaldes1831cvaldes1831 Posts: 1,832member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post



    I wish tech reporters would have a rule that would only note the top 5 (or so) analysts from the last quarter. If the Internets did this then perhaps they would try harder to be more accurate so they can get automatic recognition the next quarter.


     


    Well, that would require some sort of journalistic integrity, and true journalism died in the Nineties.


     


    Sorry about that.

  • Reply 7 of 50
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 19,223member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post



    I wish tech reporters would have a rule that would only note the top 5 (or so) analysts from the last quarter. 


    I'll bet that chart -- on an out-of-sample basis -- will look like a random walk. image

  • Reply 8 of 50
    applezillaapplezilla Posts: 941member


    And the profit from one iPad is = to the profit of multiple Android tablets.


     


    Good thing Google has that whole ad spamming thing to lean on.

  • Reply 9 of 50
    DaekwanDaekwan Posts: 174member


    10 million.  15 million.  20 million.


     


    Does it really matter?  No other tablet is even capable of approaching the iPad's marketshare.

  • Reply 10 of 50
    mjtomlinmjtomlin Posts: 1,876member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    With Apple entering new markets and needing to push iPads into those channels, which as a rule is counted as a sale, I don't see 20M as unreachable. How many were shipped just to China, regardless whether they've actually been sold to an end-user yet.



     


    Apple publishes channel numbers as well, so you can easily calculate how many have actually been sold; 


     


             (units shipped + previous channel) - current channel


     


     


    Furthermore, Apple devices sell and Apple is very good at maintaining their product channels at very reasonable levels for their expectations.

  • Reply 11 of 50
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,162member
    jragosta wrote: »
    So we're supposed to take the word of someone who admits that his previous forecasts where hasty formulations? Why would we believe that he did a better job on this one?
    Furthemore, wasn't there just an article that another analyst predicted that iPad sales would be lower?
    Why not just admit that the big name analysts don't do any better than simply throwing a dart at the wall?

    iPad sales are tanking, not growing. EVERYBODY is waiting for the Surface and the Nexus 7 don't you know. When these babies come out the iPad will be but a distant memory. Just ask anybody. ;-)
  • Reply 12 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post



    iPad sales are tanking, not growing. EVERYBODY is waiting for the Surface and the Nexus 7 don't you know. When these babies come out the iPad will be but a distant memory. Just ask anybody. ;-)

     

    Yes! I certainly agree that the MS Orifice is the tablet of the future... and always will be /s
  • Reply 13 of 50
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,215member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post





    So we're supposed to take the word of someone who admits that his previous forecasts where hasty formulations? Why would we believe that he did a better job on this one?

    Furthemore, wasn't there just an article that another analyst predicted that iPad sales would be lower?


     


    Actually I believe that was the article about how iPad sales are 'cannalbilizing' Mac sales and they are going to be sheete low this quarter between that and the supply issues with the Retina etc

  • Reply 15 of 50
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member
    … Where can [I]I[/I] get a cutting of that tree?
  • Reply 16 of 50
    aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,580member
    If this turns out to be true then I find this absolutely amazing. I've put the number at 14 million. I realize the RD v3 came out this year but I just couldn't see Apple besting the holiday quarter numbers until the next holiday quarter.

    I'm sure that if the number is over 15 million then it has to be businesses that are driving the sales.

    The holiday quarter was all about the iPhone. There was a lot of noise about the Kindle. While I don't expect iPad 2 users to be upgrading in droves, original iPad owners should be, given the camera and the retina display. It is a major update, especially if you didn't get 64GB the first time around.

    Businesses have an even more compelling case to look at iPad, especially with people in sales or transient/non-traditional office roles.

    Part of me thinks 20 is still pretty conservative, but it might take another quarter for many of the sales to materialize. I can almost picture iPads rivaling the iPhone (albeit at a lower ASP).
  • Reply 17 of 50
    aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,580member
    solipsismx wrote: »
    I wish tech reporters would have a rule that would only note the top 5 (or so) analysts from the last quarter. If the Internets did this then perhaps they would try harder to be more accurate so they can get automatic recognition the next quarter.

    Problem is many analysts don't update estimates over the course of a quarter. There are good reasons for that practice, and changing from projecting sales to estimating previous sales prior to disclosure doesn't put people on even ground.
  • Reply 18 of 50
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,755member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mjtomlin View Post


     


    Apple publishes channel numbers as well, so you can easily calculate how many have actually been sold; 


     


             (units shipped + previous channel) - current channel


     


     


    Furthermore, Apple devices sell and Apple is very good at maintaining their product channels at very reasonable levels for their expectations.



    They do, and you can use the channel inventory to get a reasonably reliable number on the sell-thru. But even those in the channel are normally counted as a sale. They don't report their sales as just those to the end-user.

  • Reply 19 of 50

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    They do, and you can use the channel inventory to get a reasonably reliable number on the sell-thru. But even those in the channel are normally counted as a sale. They don't report their sales as just those to the end-user.





    Way to demand more of Apple than anyone else.  For them to do what you ask the data would have to lag at least by a full quarter since it's dependent on receiving sales data back from each and every reseller around the world.  Using mjtomlin's equation you can easily find their sales, why isn't that good enough?  What other smartphone manufacturer provides remotely similar transparency in their sales figures?

  • Reply 20 of 50
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,755member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by GregInPrague View Post




    Way to demand more of Apple than anyone else.  For them to do what you ask the data would have to lag at least by a full quarter since it's dependent on receiving sales data back from each and every reseller around the world.  Using mjtomlin's equation you can easily find their sales, why isn't that good enough?  What other smartphone manufacturer provides remotely similar transparency in their sales figures?



    I've no idea why you think my post means I expect more from Apple than others. All the competitors generally report revenue (sales) the same way and use the same basic rules to determine when a sale occurred. Apple goes one step further to comment on channel inventory as reported by resellers. 


     


    The Author's claim that there will be 20M sales doesn't mean to an end-user. He's talking about direct-to-consumer and to resellers combined. Apple only gets paid once for that iPad. If a retailer or distributor purchased it for resale but it's still sitting in a stockroom or on the shelf, it still counted as a sale as far as Apple is concerned. That's what Apple is reporting when it claims x-number sold, and that's the number that Wolf is referencing, not the estimated number that were purchased by end-users alone.

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