"Every five iPad mini sales projected to cannibalize one full-size iPad"?
Maybe, but that's pure conjecture. We do know, however, that for every 5 iPad mini you see in the wild, there will be maybe one Android tablet sighted.
Absolute bull. There is absolutely no way you can gauge the popularity of an unreleased product. Any calculations of "cannibalisation rates" he does are pure fantasy and given the messenger, not worth talking about.
Correct it is BS guess, but it is ok to talk about and guess.
If I were to 'guess' it would be a little larger percentage... 50% or more cannibiliaztion. Why... price, pure and simple. For the 80% of tasks of email and web browsing etc... the 7.8 will be fine.
Gene may have had analyses in the past that were in error to eventual reality, but from what I understand, he does follow a scientific method. It is not pure fantasy, and a lot of market research is based on the fact of asking someone right after they buy something (or if they went to look at it and decided not to trigger a purchase), If a smaller device would have triggered a sale instead your decision.
Apple, Personally, are backtracking on their original 'sandpaper for fingertips' statement, in that, this is a modal niche that the market is defining and chinks a gap between the iPod and the iPad classic. The pricing at this level is such that potential iPad buyers see an alternative value. Apple needs solution that is 'not so big' and 'not so expensive.' Market demands it, so Apple responds, for the most part, to eliminate the competition at this level, so they are not being 'ecosystemed' out of Apple.
20% cannibalization is about what I thought (30%) in that Most people who have bought iPads have them, and only those who didn't buy them for whatever reason are left. only 20% are 'buying now' because they want a bigger device than a iPhone, but are compromising on size to get an iPad (2 most likely) for a bigger need.
Given that I 'gave' my iPad to my wife (as her iPhone was too small for her to browse), i'm cramped on an iPhone 4s screen for mobile browsing. The thing I need is a device that allows me to iPad only apps to display, but at a low price, as my MB is find for big stuff, and my iPhone is fine for most everything else. I would guess the iPad Mini would be my 'coat pocket' device for reading and movies, and my phone would be more 'ultra mobile'
But I'm one person. I do think that a vast majority of people haven't got an iPad because that $500 is too expensive for a 'book reader,' but they are invested in the ecosystem (iTunes/iPhone), and prefer the iOS experience to Android/Kindle/Nook.
I would argue that a BMW with plexiglass instead of glass would actually be a bad design, whereas a plastic iPad would actually be a boon to the end user.
Part of the attraction and indeed a part of the design of a BMW is that it's a high end luxury machine, a "precious" and coveted device. I'm sure Apple would argue similarly for it's iOS devices, but it makes no sense in the context of what they are. If mobile devices are designed to be ubiquitous (they are), and if they are expected to be even more prevalent and more widely used than a computer desktop or laptop (they are), then they shouldn't really be thought of as precious jewels at all. They should be "chuckable," resilient and lightweight. Plastic is perfect for this.
It's no surprise that overall, the biggest area of complaint from users over Apple's iOS devices has always been durability and this very "preciousness."
Apple wants to own this market and dominate it, but they act like they are still aiming for the 10% of elite users at the top in terms of their product design.
I'm beginning to think you might be for real, and just suffering from the tactile equivalent of a tin ear.
One of the great things Apple is doing is setting a new standard for how things should feel. I think it's great that little kids are getting to know glass and matte aluminum in their hands along with the usual primary-colored polymers.
It is amazing that not only is he able to predict buying paterns for an unreleased product, but that the ever observant commentors here can correct him by pointing to specs that are not yet known.
If Apple releases a "high end mini iPad" with the top end chip, retina, and and 64 gigs and full connectivity as part of the product matrix, I will spend the hours between release and when it arrives at my door step laughing long and loud...
Probably not, but you're in the minority and wrong, as shown by sales.
And somebody who knows more than I do about hardware ought to look into the real cost of adding more flash memory to these devices. I mean it isn't just a matter of plugging in another chip. I would think there'd have to be a different main board design and a different line for each configuration, no? Plus the inventory variables to be managed for the different lines.
It's just cynicism first, ask questions later for some of these tough customers.
Oh, no! But you're wrong in that consumers find it unacceptable.
I think that if Apple cut their capacity upgrade prices in half, that'd be awesome. I also think that it wouldn't do enough for sales of the higher capacity devices to offset the lost revenue.
Oh, no! But you're wrong in that consumers find it unacceptable.
I think that if Apple cut their capacity upgrade prices in half, that'd be awesome. I also think that it wouldn't do enough for sales of the higher capacity devices to offset the lost revenue.
I didn't say all consumers. In fact, I acknowledged that I'm in a minority.
You're right, it's all about making money, and the more ignorant consumers are, the more likely they are to over-pay.
If you really think it would be awesome, then put some pressure on Apple.
And somebody who knows more than I do about hardware ought to look into the real cost of adding more flash memory to these devices. I mean it isn't just a matter of plugging in another chip. I would think there'd have to be a different main board design and a different line for each configuration, no? Plus the inventory variables to be managed for the different lines.
It's just cynicism first, ask questions later for some of these tough customers.
Yes, it takes a whole lot more engineering and a completely new mainboard to support more memory. For instance, if I want more memory in my Mac Pro, I have to buy a whole new computer. Oh, wait. That's my MacBook Pro retina.
Yes, someone who knows more about hardware than you ought to look into this and report back.
Yes, it takes a whole lot more engineering and a completely new mainboard to support more memory. For instance, if I want more memory in my Mac Pro, I have to buy a whole new computer. Oh, wait. That's my MacBook Pro retina.
Yes, someone who knows more about hardware than you ought to look into this and report back.
Or you. You do realize that there is a bit more room in your MacBook? Would you like to try to insert a new card in your iPad?
And what about the different assembly lines for the different options? Care to diagram the logistics? Don't forget the colors and connectivity options.
You are looking only at the cost of the memory chip wholesale, aren't you. That's beneath laughable.
But the only way I can change things is get together a group of people able to manufacture NAND chips for obscenely lower prices, causing it to be completely infeasible to charge however much for upgrades or… convince people to not buy the stuff. But if I want a capacity and can afford it, I'll buy it, so the latter seems like it'd be hypocritical.
Or you. You do realize that there is a bit more room in your MacBook? Would you like to try to insert a new card in your iPad?
And what about the different assembly lines for the different options? Care to diagram the logistics? Don't forget the colors and connectivity options.
You are looking only at the cost of the memory chip wholesale, aren't you. That's beneath laughable.
Oh, it's so complicated!
Wholesale is likely more than Apple pays. And a 5-fold markup over wholesale is ordinarily enough to make a very good profit.
Wholesale is likely more than Apple pays. And a 5-fold markup over wholesale is ordinarily enough to make a very good profit.
The sad part is you can't just go buy some more memory from a retailer who charges a fair price and add it to your iPad yourself.
I feel real sorry for the ignorant (or rich) people who max out the memory when they buy a mac computer and pay a crapload extra for said memory when they could have just added some inexpensive memory from another manufacturer. Total ripoff.
Comments
"Every five iPad mini sales projected to cannibalize one full-size iPad"?
Maybe, but that's pure conjecture. We do know, however, that for every 5 iPad mini you see in the wild, there will be maybe one Android tablet sighted.
Quote:
Originally Posted by boeyc15
Originally Posted by Gazoobee
Absolute bull. There is absolutely no way you can gauge the popularity of an unreleased product. Any calculations of "cannibalisation rates" he does are pure fantasy and given the messenger, not worth talking about.
Correct it is BS guess, but it is ok to talk about and guess.
If I were to 'guess' it would be a little larger percentage... 50% or more cannibiliaztion. Why... price, pure and simple. For the 80% of tasks of email and web browsing etc... the 7.8 will be fine.
Gene may have had analyses in the past that were in error to eventual reality, but from what I understand, he does follow a scientific method. It is not pure fantasy, and a lot of market research is based on the fact of asking someone right after they buy something (or if they went to look at it and decided not to trigger a purchase), If a smaller device would have triggered a sale instead your decision.
Apple, Personally, are backtracking on their original 'sandpaper for fingertips' statement, in that, this is a modal niche that the market is defining and chinks a gap between the iPod and the iPad classic. The pricing at this level is such that potential iPad buyers see an alternative value. Apple needs solution that is 'not so big' and 'not so expensive.' Market demands it, so Apple responds, for the most part, to eliminate the competition at this level, so they are not being 'ecosystemed' out of Apple.
20% cannibalization is about what I thought (30%) in that Most people who have bought iPads have them, and only those who didn't buy them for whatever reason are left. only 20% are 'buying now' because they want a bigger device than a iPhone, but are compromising on size to get an iPad (2 most likely) for a bigger need.
Given that I 'gave' my iPad to my wife (as her iPhone was too small for her to browse), i'm cramped on an iPhone 4s screen for mobile browsing. The thing I need is a device that allows me to iPad only apps to display, but at a low price, as my MB is find for big stuff, and my iPhone is fine for most everything else. I would guess the iPad Mini would be my 'coat pocket' device for reading and movies, and my phone would be more 'ultra mobile'
But I'm one person. I do think that a vast majority of people haven't got an iPad because that $500 is too expensive for a 'book reader,' but they are invested in the ecosystem (iTunes/iPhone), and prefer the iOS experience to Android/Kindle/Nook.
- Guy Who Refuses To Let It Go
I'm beginning to think you might be for real, and just suffering from the tactile equivalent of a tin ear.
One of the great things Apple is doing is setting a new standard for how things should feel. I think it's great that little kids are getting to know glass and matte aluminum in their hands along with the usual primary-colored polymers.
If Apple releases a "high end mini iPad" with the top end chip, retina, and and 64 gigs and full connectivity as part of the product matrix, I will spend the hours between release and when it arrives at my door step laughing long and loud...
I don't think I'm alone in feeling that a 10-, 20- or greater fold markup on flash memory prices is unacceptable to consumers.
Originally Posted by Cpsro
I don't think I'm alone in feeling that a 10- to 20-fold markup on flash memory prices is unacceptable to consumers.
Probably not, but you're in the minority and wrong, as shown by sales.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Probably not, but you're in the minority and wrong, as shown by sales.
I am not wrong to feel that way. I am in the minority only by pure ignorance of the general public. So let's help get the word out, ok?
"The computer for the rest of us."
And somebody who knows more than I do about hardware ought to look into the real cost of adding more flash memory to these devices. I mean it isn't just a matter of plugging in another chip. I would think there'd have to be a different main board design and a different line for each configuration, no? Plus the inventory variables to be managed for the different lines.
It's just cynicism first, ask questions later for some of these tough customers.
Originally Posted by Cpsro
I am not wrong to feel that way.
Oh, no! But you're wrong in that consumers find it unacceptable.
I think that if Apple cut their capacity upgrade prices in half, that'd be awesome. I also think that it wouldn't do enough for sales of the higher capacity devices to offset the lost revenue.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Oh, no! But you're wrong in that consumers find it unacceptable.
I think that if Apple cut their capacity upgrade prices in half, that'd be awesome. I also think that it wouldn't do enough for sales of the higher capacity devices to offset the lost revenue.
I didn't say all consumers. In fact, I acknowledged that I'm in a minority.
You're right, it's all about making money, and the more ignorant consumers are, the more likely they are to over-pay.
If you really think it would be awesome, then put some pressure on Apple.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur
And somebody who knows more than I do about hardware ought to look into the real cost of adding more flash memory to these devices. I mean it isn't just a matter of plugging in another chip. I would think there'd have to be a different main board design and a different line for each configuration, no? Plus the inventory variables to be managed for the different lines.
It's just cynicism first, ask questions later for some of these tough customers.
Yes, it takes a whole lot more engineering and a completely new mainboard to support more memory. For instance, if I want more memory in my Mac Pro, I have to buy a whole new computer. Oh, wait. That's my MacBook Pro retina.
Yes, someone who knows more about hardware than you ought to look into this and report back.
Originally Posted by Cpsro
If you really think it would be awesome, then put some pressure on Apple.
What'm I gonna do? I like the highest capacity stuff.
Or you. You do realize that there is a bit more room in your MacBook? Would you like to try to insert a new card in your iPad?
And what about the different assembly lines for the different options? Care to diagram the logistics? Don't forget the colors and connectivity options.
You are looking only at the cost of the memory chip wholesale, aren't you. That's beneath laughable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
What'm I gonna do? I like the highest capacity stuff.
You like the high prices, too.
Originally Posted by Cpsro
You like the high prices, too.
No, not… no.
But the only way I can change things is get together a group of people able to manufacture NAND chips for obscenely lower prices, causing it to be completely infeasible to charge however much for upgrades or… convince people to not buy the stuff. But if I want a capacity and can afford it, I'll buy it, so the latter seems like it'd be hypocritical.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur
Or you. You do realize that there is a bit more room in your MacBook? Would you like to try to insert a new card in your iPad?
And what about the different assembly lines for the different options? Care to diagram the logistics? Don't forget the colors and connectivity options.
You are looking only at the cost of the memory chip wholesale, aren't you. That's beneath laughable.
Oh, it's so complicated!
Wholesale is likely more than Apple pays. And a 5-fold markup over wholesale is ordinarily enough to make a very good profit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cpsro
Oh, it's so complicated!
Wholesale is likely more than Apple pays. And a 5-fold markup over wholesale is ordinarily enough to make a very good profit.
The sad part is you can't just go buy some more memory from a retailer who charges a fair price and add it to your iPad yourself.
I feel real sorry for the ignorant (or rich) people who max out the memory when they buy a mac computer and pay a crapload extra for said memory when they could have just added some inexpensive memory from another manufacturer. Total ripoff.