Every five 'iPad mini' sales projected to cannibalize one full-size iPad

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Apple's anticipated "iPad mini" is forecast to have a cannibalization rate of 20 percent, which would mean every five smaller iPads sold would take the place of one full-size 9.7-inch iPad.

Assuming Apple's 7.85-inch iPad goes on sale Friday, Nov. 2, analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray sees the company selling at least 5 million units in the December quarter. That would be enough to cannibalize a million regular iPad units during the holiday shopping season, he believes.

Munster had previously forecast sales of 21 million iPads in the December quarter. But with the expected launch of the so-called iPad mini at Apple's event next week, he has increased total iPad sales to 25 million.

For calendar year 2013, Munster's iPad sales estimate has increased from 86.5 million to 95 million, accounting for additional sales from the iPad mini. He sees smaller iPads accounting for about a quarter of Apple's total iPad sales next year.

But because the smaller iPad is expected to be offered at a significantly lower price point than the traditional iPad, Munster's forecast also calls for the average iPad selling price to drop in calendar 2013 from $527 to $495.

iPad mini Rendering

"iPad mini" rendering by Martin Hajek


He believes that the iPad mini will likely be priced at between $249 and $299 for the entry level model. For that price, he sees Apple offering 8 gigabytes of storage and a non-Retina display.

He thinks a fair amount of customers would opt for greater capacity with an iPad mini, which is why he sees an average selling price for the new, smaller iPad of between $350 and $360. That would be about a 20 percent increase from an assumed base price of $299, a number in-line with current iPad sales figures.

Munster's earlier forecasts had assumed that Apple would not offer a "full slate of options for storage and wireless" with the new, smaller iPad. But he cited a report published by AppleInsider on Tuesday that revealed a slew of new iPad models Apple is set to unveil next week that suggest the iPad mini will be available in a range of capacities and colors with various connectivity options, including cellular data.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 87
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,379member
    That's par for the course and why Apple does so well, they don't fear progress even at their own products' expense.
  • Reply 2 of 87
    timuscatimusca Posts: 122member
    Yeah, but that also mean 4 out of 5 iPad mini sales are the result of new buyers. Good news.
  • Reply 3 of 87
    mauszmausz Posts: 243member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by TimUSCA View Post



    Yeah, but that also mean 4 out of 5 iPad mini sales are the result of new buyers. Good news.


     


    Or people who buy the mini and already have an iPad.


     


    I found the title somewhat difficult to comprehend (not a native english speaker, so maybe that's the problem?). I would have said every 1 in 5 persons who buy an iPad mini will do so instead of buying the iPad 2/3

  • Reply 4 of 87
    ISn't the Nexus 7 a Retina display with 8Gb at 200$? I think I read that...
  • Reply 5 of 87
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member
    Munster wants us to believe that folks would have bought the regular iPad if the mini doesn't happen. And that might be true, if they are forced to buy it for one thing like the kiddies have to have it for school.

    Otherwise, he is full of crap. Folks that buy the mini in 90% of cases would not have bought the full one because it was too big etc. so the Mini would cannabalize the Kindle etc.
  • Reply 6 of 87
    irelandireland Posts: 17,751member
    Did you ever just get sick of these so-named 'analysts' guessing? Just look at their iPad 1 year 1 guesses? Embarrassing.
  • Reply 7 of 87
    mauszmausz Posts: 243member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by lightknight View Post



    ISn't the Nexus 7 a Retina display with 8Gb at 200$? I think I read that...


     


    It's 7" (16:10) with 1280x800 display (216ppi, I'll leave it to Apple marketing to define if that's retina), new 32Gb model will be out this week voor $249.


     


    iPad mini with suggested 7.85" 4:3 1024x768 display will have 163ppi

  • Reply 8 of 87
    gazoobeegazoobee Posts: 3,754member
    Absolute bull. There is absolutely no way you can gauge the popularity of an unreleased product. Any calculations of "cannibalisation rates" he does are pure fantasy and given the messenger, not worth talking about.
  • Reply 9 of 87
    gustavgustav Posts: 825member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mausz View Post


     


    It's 7" (16:10) with 1280x800 display (216ppi, I'll leave it to Apple marketing to define if that's retina), new 32Gb model will be out this week voor $249.


     


    iPad mini with suggested 7.85" 4:3 1024x768 display will have 163ppi



    216 ppi is probably not enough to call it Retina, but it'll be higher resolution than what the rumors are saying the iPad mini will be. We'll have to wait and see. That will put some pricing pressure on Apple, but they likely won't match it. I suspect it'll be 16GB for $299.

  • Reply 10 of 87
    sabonsabon Posts: 133member
    It's unlikely to change my wife's and my buying habits when it comes to iPads.

    I bought the first gen and my wife the second. I then bought the 3rd gen (Retina) and despite the iPad mini coming out she is going to be buying the gen 4, and so on.

    My wife has said that she has, key word "also" always wanted a smaller one for when we go places and she takes a smaller purse with her. That way she won't have to leave her "big" iPad behind. But she definitely wants the "big" iPad too though. And especially since it has the better screen.
  • Reply 11 of 87
    clemynxclemynx Posts: 1,510member


    I frankly don't see where the hell those stats come from.

  • Reply 12 of 87

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by lightknight View Post



    ISn't the Nexus 7 a Retina display with 8Gb at 200$? I think I read that...


    Oh sunshine.. it isn't that simple.


     


    the nexus is cheap, has cheap low quality software, low quality apps..


     


    different devices, totally.

  • Reply 13 of 87
    ahmlcoahmlco Posts: 432member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Sabon View Post



    My wife has said that she has, key word "also" always wanted a smaller one for when we go places and she takes a smaller purse with her. That way she won't have to leave her "big" iPad behind. But she definitely wants the "big" iPad too though. And especially since it has the better screen.


     


    Yeah, that's going to be hard to judge. The iPad mini will, of course, cannibalize some sales of the full size pad. But you're just got to wonder how many people who already have an iPad are ALSO going to buy a mini?


     


    And while you're at it, how many of those people will keep the mini? Or sell their full size iPad if they decide the smaller version better suits their purposes.


     


    Heck, for all we know, the smaller version could cannibalize sales of 4 out of 5 full size iPads...

  • Reply 14 of 87
    The iPad 3 is the perfect size. When you read magazines (People, Time, etc.) you get the full page and you can not enlarge it. It will be too tiny to read on the small screen.
  • Reply 15 of 87
    the nexus is cheap, has cheap low quality software, low quality apps..

    The Nexus is a fucking piece of convoluted, unintuitive shit.

    I speak, unfortuneately so, from first hand & intensive experience.

    And this is the "flagship" Android tablet?!?

    Anyone who says that the trashing of the Nexus is "just Apple fanboi-ism"
    is a complete & utter asshole.
  • Reply 16 of 87


    I think Apple needs to give people as much reason as possible to buy a full-size iPad over an iPad mini to reduce any "cannibalization" that may happen. Otherwise what is there to make you choose a full-size iPad, just having an extra 2" screen? How does that justify a price that will be around twice as expensive as an iPad mini? I'm thinking it makes sense for the mini to have lower capacity storage AND a 1024x768 resolution. It just seems logical that they'd keep the resolution the same as the iPad 1/2 so all the apps work natively. Regardless of what any Android tablets are doing I'd still say it's a great deal and will probably end up buying a few as Christmas presents. There needs to be enough in the new iPad to make you choose it over a mini.

  • Reply 17 of 87
    gazoobeegazoobee Posts: 3,754member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by lightknight View Post



    ISn't the Nexus 7 a Retina display with 8Gb at 200$? I think I read that...


     


    The Nexus 7 wouldn't be a Retina display as the term is currently defined.  It has a PPI of only 216.  


     


    The iPad 3 and iPhone 5 are both Retina density and they have 264 and 326 PPI respectively.  Any mini tablet would have to be in between those two numbers to be Retina and probably closer to the larger number than the smaller since a mini iPad would be held no closer than an iPhone a lot of the time.  We are probably talking at least 300 PPI before you could really use the term, but if I was Apple, I would match the iPhone's 326 PPI to be certain.  Since a 1024x768 mini would be only 163 PPI, doubling it next year would make it the same PPI as the iPhone Retina screen. 


     


    So ... a Nexus 7 is actually only about 65% of a Retina density screen and an iPhone mini with the reported low density screen would be "half-Retina." 

  • Reply 18 of 87
    kevtkevt Posts: 195member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post



    Absolute bull. There is absolutely no way you can gauge the popularity of an unreleased product. Any calculations of "cannibalisation rates" he does are pure fantasy and given the messenger, not worth talking about.


     


    In your own words absolute bull. There are obvious ways of gauging popularity of unreleased products, not least of all research into people's purchasing intentions - you ask them. You can also look at buying trends in similar markets, e.g. the android tablet market where multiple sizes are available. 


     


    We're not talking about a device which is so groundbreaking that people might not know they want it until they've seen it (like the iPad and iPhone when they were first introduced). People have seen iPads. People have seen 7" tablets. It's not that hard to envisage a 7.85" iPad.


     


    Such forecasting must be taken for what it is, a tentative prediction in the light of (a) not having seen/held the product and (b) not knowing the price. It's not an exact science, but nor is it an invalid process to attempt as you suggest.


     


    We don't dismiss weather forecasting as pointless because it sometimes turns out inaccurate, we accept it for what it is.

  • Reply 19 of 87
    macrulezmacrulez Posts: 2,455member


    deleted

  • Reply 20 of 87
    rob55rob55 Posts: 1,282member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by BoxMacCary View Post





    The Nexus is a fucking piece of convoluted, unintuitive shit.

    I speak, unfortuneately so, from first hand & intensive experience.

    And this is the "flagship" Android tablet?!?

    Anyone who says that the trashing of the Nexus is "just Apple fanboi-ism"

    is a complete & utter asshole.


     


    Well, one thing for sure, you don't mince your words. But yeah, I can't stand Android either (my personal opinion).

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