Apple expected to ship 850K iPad minis in first week of sales

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  • Reply 21 of 45
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    I think I'll pop into my local Apple Store to see if they have any models that are sold out. With that info I might be able to create an estimate for the weekend.
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  • Reply 22 of 45
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member


    I went to the Apple Store yesterday and checked out the new mini. Overall I like it. Still waiting for my cellular version to be delivered. One thing I noticed right away is that while using maps, which is one of my main intended uses of the device, it is noticeably laggy when zooming especially in 3D mode. Compared to the speed of the new iPad 4 the mini is a real dog. Even switching orientation has somewhat of a delay. The screen looks pretty good but you kind of get the impression that it is seriously underpowered and will probably become obsolete rather quickly as new apps demand more performance.

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  • Reply 23 of 45
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,770member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post



    I think I'll pop into my local Apple Store to see if they have any models that are sold out. With that info I might be able to create an estimate for the weekend.


    (almost) no one will get what you're saying Soli.image

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  • Reply 24 of 45

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mstone View Post


    I went to the Apple Store yesterday and checked out the new mini. Overall I like it. Still waiting for my cellular version to be delivered. One thing I noticed right away is that while using maps, which is one of my main intended uses of the device, it is noticeably laggy when zooming especially in 3D mode. Compared to the speed of the new iPad 4 the mini is a real dog. Even switching orientation has somewhat of a delay. The screen looks pretty good but you kind of get the impression that it is seriously underpowered and will probably become obsolete rather quickly as new apps demand more performance.



     


    In benchmarks I read the Mini was, if anything, a touch faster than iPad 1,2 and 3.  So I don't see that is suddenly underpowered with the arrival of iPad 4. Most people don't even know iPad 4 exists.


     


    I also played with the mini and it seemed slick and fast, just like the iPad 3 they had on display.  The store I was at had no iPad 4 on display to compare.

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  • Reply 25 of 45
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Snowdog65 View Post




     


    In benchmarks I read the Mini was, if anything, a touch faster than iPad 1,2 and 3.  So I don't see that is suddenly underpowered with the arrival of iPad 4. Most people don't even know iPad 4 exists.


     


    I also played with the mini and it seemed slick and fast, just like the iPad 3 they had on display.  The store I was at had no iPad 4 on display to compare.



    I just read the benchmarks now and it does measure up favorably with the other iPads. Perhaps my review of the Maps app was shaded by the performance of the network or the application which in turn influenced my overall impression of the lack of speed. But I still liked it and look forward to receiving mine.

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  • Reply 26 of 45
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    gatorguy wrote: »
    (almost) no one will get what you're saying Soli.:)

    Can you elucidate as I'm not sure what part of my statement won't be understood?
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  • Reply 27 of 45
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post



    I think I'll pop into my local Apple Store to see if they have any models that are sold out. With that info I might be able to create an estimate for the weekend.


    Yesterday afternoon at my Apple Store at South Coast Plaza I overheard a sales rep comment to someone that they only had 2 black 64 GB left. Everything else was sold out. I have no idea how many of each they started out with.

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  • Reply 28 of 45


    That does seem like a very low estimate, but lines are reported to have been quite short for this release and this was combined iPad4/Mini release. It seem iPad 3 lines alone were longer. 


     


    Release fatigue?

     

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  • Reply 29 of 45
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    snowdog65 wrote: »
    That does seem like a very low estimate, but lines are reported to have been quite short for this release and this was combined iPad4/Mini release. It seem iPad 3 lines alone were longer. 

    Release fatigue?

    If we include the number of the countries, even if weighed for population disparities, I think 34 makes it quite possible they will sell at least 2 million this opening weekend. I would say Apple had planned for a multi-million unit sales this weekend based on how long we've heard rumours and seen legitimate leaks as this points to production ramp up but will they sell that many? As chance would have it I happened upon an Apple Store employee in line before me at Starbucks this morning who was kind enough to inform me hat they sold out of all the black models yesterday and wasn't sure what the stock for white was when she left work for the day.
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  • Reply 30 of 45
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,770member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    Can you elucidate as I'm not sure what part of my statement won't be understood?


    Sorry. I thought you were making a joke, being sarcastic when implying you would make an estimate of total sales based on your local Apple Store's current inventory. Did I misread you?

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  • Reply 31 of 45

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    If we include the number of the countries, even if weighed for population disparities, I think 34 makes it quite possible they will sell at least 2 million this opening weekend. I would say Apple had planned for a multi-million unit sales this weekend based on how long we've heard rumours and seen legitimate leaks as this points to production ramp up but will they sell that many? As chance would have it I happened upon an Apple Store employee in line before me at Starbucks this morning who was kind enough to inform me hat they sold out of all the black models yesterday and wasn't sure what the stock for white was when she left work for the day.


     


    Being sold out at specific stores tells us next to nothing. Adding more countries helps, but in previous releases the biggest markets were already hit. Adding smaller market countries won't change things significantly.


     


    But worldwide small lineups being short tells us there wasn't that immediate large scale demand of previous releases, especially when this was also iPad 4 launch.


     


    iPad 4 + iPad mini, with smaller lines than iPad 3 alone definitely looks like release fatigue to me. Or market saturation.

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  • Reply 32 of 45
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    snowdog65 wrote: »
    Being sold out at specific stores tells us next to nothing. Adding more countries helps, but in previous releases the biggest markets were already hit. Adding smaller market countries won't change things significantly.

    And when you get reports that many stores are sold out you can't see a patten that sales have outstripped supply? I don't see how that would imply anything else.
    But worldwide small lineups being short tells us there wasn't that immediate large scale demand of previous releases, especially when this was also iPad 4 launch.

    iPad 4 + iPad mini, with smaller lines than iPad 3 alone definitely looks like release fatigue to me. Or market saturation.

    Again, you need to consider the number of countries, their population, the number of Apple Stores and resellers instead of just taking the number of people in line at one store.

    If I hear from multiple people in multiple countries reporting that their local stores are sold out of some or all SKUs, and then factor in the ramp up time for this device based on Apple's release and leak history it's hard to say that they likely sold more than 850k units across 34 countries, in 390 official stores and countless resellers in 3 days. We're only talking about 25k units per country and I think the US will far exceed that on its own.
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  • Reply 33 of 45

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    And when you get reports that many stores are sold out you can't see a patten that sales have outstripped supply? I don't see how that would imply anything else.

    Again, you need to consider the number of countries, their population, the number of Apple Stores and resellers instead of just taking the number of people in line at one store.

    If I hear from multiple people in multiple countries reporting that their local stores are sold out of some or all SKUs, and then factor in the ramp up time for this device based on Apple's release and leak history it's hard to say that they likely sold more than 850k units across 34 countries, in 390 official stores and countless resellers in 3 days. We're only talking about 25k units per country and I think the US will far exceed that on its own.


     


    I am not saying 850K makes any sense. But without know supply, "selling out" tells us nothing. Microsoft "sold out" of the $499 Surface RT tablets in one day. Meaningless without numbers.


     


    But customer excitement/demand for an apple product can be somewhat gauged by line size and world wide they were small.


     


    Something didn't click this time. They may have a big number to report because eventually they cleared the first run stock, but in past releases there would have been much bigger lines and the stores would have all been cleaned soon after opening.


     


    I am interested in what is driving smaller line size for iPad 4 + Mini launch, than iPad 3 launch alone.


     


    If (iPad4 + iPad Mini) is bringing less people to stores than iPad 3 did, something seems to be wrong.

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  • Reply 34 of 45
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    snowdog65 wrote: »
    I am not saying 850K makes any sense. But without know supply, "selling out" tells us nothing. Microsoft "sold out" of the $499 Surface RT tablets in one day. Meaningless without numbers.

    Hence my repeated comments about using previous weekend sales data against how long we've seen legitimate leaks which implies the longer the legitimate leaks the longer the product has been in production.

    Now you can argue that they were slower in the ramp up but we're going by historical data, not what if scenarios. Since we've had very substantial leaks that turned out to be accurate since at least early September for a November launch it's likely they have been ramping up production for some time.
    But customer excitement/demand for an apple product can be somewhat gauged by line size and world wide they were small.

    Something didn't click this time. They may have a big number to report because eventually they cleared the first run stock, but in past releases there would have been much bigger lines and the stores would have all been cleaned soon after opening.

    What part of this aren't you getting? Of course they have smaller lines when they've updated nearly every product they make in very short time frame, but you need to consider that they are launching in 34 countries at the same time. Do you think Apple didn't consider that when they decided to add in a couple dozen more countries than usual for launch day or do you think they made 20 million for the launch weekend? I think it's the former. That doesn't mean demand will outstrip demand in any or all countries, as previously stated, but it does imply Apple is well aware of their product potential out of the gate and I can't see how you'd think otherwise.
    I am interested in what is driving smaller line size for iPad 4 + Mini launch, than iPad 3 launch alone.

    What's to wonder? Those that had an iPad 2 for a year are more likely to have updated to an iPad (3) but those with a 6 month old iPad (3) are probably less likely to run out for a faster ASIC on their iPad. I certainly have no interest in an iPad (4) and will probably wait for Rogue 6 before upgrading.

    As for the iPad mini, I'm certainly interested but I'd have to consider selling my iPad (3) as well as waiting for the cellular version. In fact, I'm most likely to buy an iPad mini if someone releases some excellent SW for a car in-dash system.
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  • Reply 35 of 45

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    What part of this aren't you getting? Of course they have smaller lines when they've updated nearly every product they make in very short time frame, but you need to consider that they are launching in 34 countries at the same time. Do you think Apple didn't consider that when they decided to add in a couple dozen more countries than usual for launch day or do you think they made 20 million for the launch weekend? I think it's the former.


     


    What are you not getting? I keep talking about line length and you keep bringing up, adding more countries. Adding Denmark to the launch list, shouldn't shorten a line of buyers in California.


     



    Quote:


    What's to wonder? Those that had an iPad 2 for a year are more likely to have updated to an iPad (3) but those with a 6 month old iPad (3) are probably less likely to run out for a faster ASIC on their iPad. I certainly have no interest in an iPad (4) and will probably wait for Rogue 6 before upgrading.




     


    This is my concern. That we are already sufficiently saturated, that sales come significantly from current iPad owners. So if they bought an iPad 3, they are out of the market.  Growth  could slow down a lot when the pool of non tablet owners shrinks and sales are mainly repeats.

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  • Reply 36 of 45
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    [quote name="Snowdog65" url="/t/154028/apple-expected-to-ship-850k-ipad-minis-in-first-week-of-sales#post_2226646"]
    What are you not getting? I keep talking about line length and you keep bringing up, adding more countries. Adding Denmark to the launch list, shouldn't shorten a line of buyers in California.[/QUOTE]

    The question is how many will they sell opening weekend. That is worldwide. For a minute lets assume that all numbers are constant. If they lines are exactly half in the US as they were for the iPad (3) launch but they have added double number of the potential customers opening weekend when you compare the difference between 10 countries for the iPad (3) v 34 countries for the iPad mini you get the same outcome.

    Of course, such things aren't constant and we have too small a data set at this point in time but it's absolutely absurd for you to say that worldwide sales numbers will be abysmal because lines are shorter in California when you choose not to consider the number of additional vendors selling this product. It's not hard to see that Apple has planned for there being shorter lines than the iPad (3) launch when they choose to include 3.4x as many countries for the opening weekend while still allowing for a length production ramp up prior to selling the device.
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  • Reply 37 of 45
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Snowdog65 View Post


    What are you not getting? I keep talking about line length and you keep bringing up, adding more countries. Adding Denmark to the launch list, shouldn't shorten a line of buyers in California.


     



    If you consider there are no lines in California because there is no product in California, then yes. If those extra 15 countries could have sent California their share of iPads then we would have lines right now. Also remember that there are no cell devices either which are quite popular. So it looks like they are selling everything they can make and even some that they haven't made.


     


    I just checked, the backorder is two weeks for the WiFi version on the online Store.

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  • Reply 38 of 45
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    mstone wrote: »
    If you consider there are no lines in California because there is no product in California, then yes. If those extra 15 countries could have sent California their share of iPads then we would have lines right now. Also remember that there are no cell devices either which are quite popular. So it looks like they are selling everything they can make and even some that they haven't made.

    I just checked, the backorder is two weeks for the WiFi version on the online Store.

    Australia: http://store.apple.com/au/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Austria: http://store.apple.com/at/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Belgium: http://store.apple.com/be-nl/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Canada: http://store.apple.com/ca/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Czech Republic: http://store.apple.com/cz/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Denmark: http://store.apple.com/dk/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Finland: http://store.apple.com/fi/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    France: http://store.apple.com/fr/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Germany: http://store.apple.com/de/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Hong Kong: http://store.apple.com/hk/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Hungary:http://store.apple.com/ie/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Ireland: http://store.apple.com/ie/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Italy: http://store.apple.com/it/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Japan: http://store.apple.com/jp/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Luxemborg: http://store.apple.com/lu/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    New Zealand: http://store.apple.com/nz/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Norway: http://store.apple.com/no/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Portugal: http://store.apple.com/pt/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Singapore: http://store.apple.com/sg/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    South Korea: http://store.apple.com/kr/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Spain: http://store.apple.com/es/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    Thailand: http://store.apple.com/th/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    United Kingdom: http://store.apple.com/uk/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
    United States: http://store.apple.com/us/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini

    All these appear to say 2 weeks. I could not check: Bulgaria, Iceland, Liechtensten, Netherlands, Poland, Puerto Rico, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden & Switzerland.
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  • Reply 39 of 45

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mstone View Post


    If you consider there are no lines in California because there is no product in California, then yes. If those extra 15 countries could have sent California their share of iPads then we would have lines right now. Also remember that there are no cell devices either which are quite popular. So it looks like they are selling everything they can make and even some that they haven't made.



     


    I am talking about the lineups when the store opens. These reflect demand, that has no connection with supply. People don't know how many iPads are in the store when they lineup, before the store even opens.


     


    It isn't like 2000 people lined up day one, for an iPhone because they knew there were 2000 iPhones at that store, but only 20 people lined up for an iPad mini because they knew there were only 20 iPads in stock. What it means is that 2000 people at that location wanted an iPhone bad enough to stand in line. But only 20 people wanted an iPad bad enough to line up.

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  • Reply 40 of 45
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    snowdog65 wrote: »
    I am talking about the lineups when the store opens. These reflect demand, that has no connection with supply.

    It's an indication of demand per store but it has no barring on how many units were sold worldwide on the launch weekend. All you can do is say that if they sold half as many at a single store they sold half as many at a single store. It is no indication of sales or demand when the net is much larger than previous iPad sales.
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