Apple expected to ship 850K iPad minis in first week of sales

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
As the first iPad mini preorders are being delivered and the tablet hits shelves at brick-and-mortar retailers, shipment forecasts are already being released, with one analyst estimating a total of 850,000 units will go out to consumers over the device's first week of sales.

In a report obtained by AppleInsider, well-informed KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said Apple will likely ship around 850,000 iPad minis in its first week on the market, based on supply chain checks and logistical considerations such as transportation.

Kuo believes that had mass production started sooner than mid-October, the tablet would have seen higher first-week shipments. As it stands, Apple is in short supply of the 7.9-inch device as about 950,000 units were manufactured prior to launch, a statistic reflected in shipment quotes from the Online Apple Store.

The analyst goes on to say his forecast would put Apple at the top of the mid-size tablet market, with shipments outperforming Amazon's Kindle Fire HD and Google Nexus 7, two of the mini's biggest competitors. In the first two days after launch, iPad mini shipments are expected to reach the Fire's half-month shipment numbers and surpass the Nexus 7's average monthly shipments for the fourth quarter.

iPad mini Shipments


Amazon forecast shipments of its 7-inch tablet to hit 6 million in the fourth quarter, but Kuo doesn't believe will happen. He said that suppliers are beginning to see a slowdown in shipment momentum for the Fire, as well as the Nexus 7, and added that the larger 8.9-inch Kindle Fire HD is now suffering from production problems.

Kuo sees lucrative holiday quarter shipments at 8.2 million for the iPad mini, followed by 4.5 million for the Kindle Fire HD, and 1.9 million for the Nexus 7. Going further, the Fire and Nexus will both see respective month-to-month declines of 47 percent and 52 percent, while iPad mini shipments will grow 11 percent over the same period due to increases in supply.

After selling out of its initial preorder allotment within hours, Apple conducted its largest product launch ever on Friday as the iPad mini rolled out in 34 countries.

Though Amazon's forecast is more than the chart (6M for 4Q12), very likely Amazon can't do it. Many suppliers are feeling the shipment momentum of Kindle Fire HD and Nexus 7 is becoming slow. The other not good news for Amazon is the 8.9" Kindle Fire HD has production problem now.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 45


    Crap, they're just gonna ship them! Not sell them! Apple is doomed.

  • Reply 2 of 45
    Does this mean Q4 results may miss estimates too?
  • Reply 3 of 45
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,198member
    I'm going to laugh if Apple posts that they sold 2-3 million just in presages. That will show just how 'well informed' this ANALyst is.
  • Reply 4 of 45

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    Crap, they're just gonna ship them! Not sell them! Apple is doomed.





    Worse. Gene Munster said the number would be 1.5 million. Some one has got some 'splainin to do'...

  • Reply 5 of 45
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,629member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by TeeJay2012 View Post




    Worse. Gene Munster said the number would be 1.5 million. Some one has got some 'splainin to do'...





    Gene always over-estimates.


     


    Me thinks 1MM is probably a good start (no pre-orders)

  • Reply 6 of 45

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    Crap, they're just gonna ship them! Not sell them! Apple is doomed.



     


    Crap, is right. Apple's gonna crap all over its competition's marketing plans. Now. if Apple could announce a fantastic outstanding new game, they would own the Christmas buying season.

  • Reply 7 of 45
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,214member


    I wish Apple could solve its supply chain problems.  At least I am ready for yet another round of stock free fall. Apple is missing a lot of sales, I went to the Apple store after work and it was pack with people wanting the ipad mini.  Some people bought the iPad 2 instead but most were disappointed it was unavaible.


     


    The iPad 4 must be the worst possible product refresh launch ever. Nobody was even looking at it with the store completely pack. btw the ipad 4 benchmark are in and its a lot faster than the nexus 10. The Android spec freaks can go back under there rock until the next ipad killer.


     


    http://www.anandtech.com/show/6426/ipad-4-gpu-performance-analyzed-powervr-sgx-554mp4-under-the-hood

  • Reply 8 of 45

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by herbapou View Post


    I wish Apple could solve its supply chain problems.  At least I am ready for yet another round of stock free fall. Apple is missing a lot of sales, I went to the Apple store after work and it was pack with people wanting the ipad mini.  Some people bought the iPad 2 instead but most were disappointed it was unavaible.


     


    The iPad 4 must be the worst possible product refresh launch ever. Nobody was even looking at it with the store completely pack. btw the ipad 4 benchmark are in and its a lot faster than the nexus 10. The Android spec freaks can go back under there rock until the next ipad killer.


     


    http://www.anandtech.com/show/6426/ipad-4-gpu-performance-analyzed-powervr-sgx-554mp4-under-the-hood



     


    Look, you're whining over the best problem any company can have. All things considered, Apple does a stellar job of second guessing demand. Just because some Tom, Dich or Harry get's a wild hair and walks into an Apple store and can't walk out with instant gratification doesn't mean Apple is incompetent.


     


    In addition of offering 6 different models of the mini in the USA, they are also shipping 6 other models to 34 other countries. That's 210 different SKUs and everyone is getting served reasonably well. On another month they are going to double or triple the number of mini SKUs when they ship the LTE versions.

  • Reply 9 of 45
    herbapou wrote: »
    I wish Apple could solve its supply chain problems.

    That's right. Stop letting those lazy cChinese workers have breaks. Make them work non stop and much faster because we have folks that must have their stuff on day one.

    Talk about a first world problem. This is not a heart transplant after all. It's not life or death. Folks need to get over it and realize that it's not the end of the world that you have to wait. Especially when, at least in the US, they are going to start the whole 'pay online pick up in store' gig as the iPhones tomorrow night (Store manger told me when they were out of the model i was looking for) So you don't have to show up every day to not get your iPad.
  • Reply 10 of 45
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    charlituna wrote: »
    I'm going to laugh if Apple posts that they sold 2-3 million just in presages. That will show just how 'well informed' this ANALyst is.

    34 countries opening weekend plus the timeframe in which we've seen what are now revealed as legitimate HW leaks tells me they have made a lot of these things so a couple million opening weekend does seem possible to me, assuming they have enough buyers.
  • Reply 11 of 45
    [CODE][/CODE]I would say analysts pull their numbers out of their backsides, hence the name. :D

    Besides how can you analyse something that has not happened / does not exist yet, IE purchases.
  • Reply 12 of 45

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post


     


    Look, you're whining over the best problem any company can have. All things considered, Apple does a stellar job of second guessing demand. Just because some Tom, Dich or Harry get's a wild hair and walks into an Apple store and can't walk out with instant gratification doesn't mean Apple is incompetent.


     


    In addition of offering 6 different models of the mini in the USA, they are also shipping 6 other models to 34 other countries. That's 210 different SKUs and everyone is getting served reasonably well. On another month they are going to double or triple the number of mini SKUs when they ship the LTE versions.



    You might think it's the best problem for a company to have but Wall Street thinks far differently.  Why do you think Apple's share price is in the toilet?  Because of Tim Cook's and Apple's lousy supply chain.  Apple doesn't make the rules of production, Wall Street does.  If Wall Street says that Apple HAS to sell a certain number of units over a weekend, then that's what Apple has to do.  If Apple doesn't, then the share price is going to drop $20.  You think shareholders appreciate that?  Apple shouldn't release any product with less than 10 million units in inventory.  Tim Cook should anticipate Wall Street's reaction and act accordingly.  The last three products Apple released disappointed Wall Street due to inventory shortages.  How long is this going to happen before Tim Cook gets a clue?  Take some of those billions in reserve cash and get some more factories and workers online or start building fully automated factories that run 24/7.  Apple sitting on $124 billion in reserve cash is absolutely useless to shareholders.  In one month, Apple has lost $60 billion in market cap.  A couple of billion dollars of reserve cash put into device production would have saved tens of billions of dollars in market cap.  Wall Street wants instant gratification and it's Tim Cook's responsibility to give them what they want.


     


    /s

  • Reply 13 of 45
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,214member
    You might think it's the best problem for a company to have but Wall Street thinks far differently.  Why do you think Apple's share price is in the toilet?  Because of Tim Cook's and Apple's lousy supply chain.  Apple doesn't make the rules of production, Wall Street does.  If Wall Street says that Apple HAS to sell a certain number of units over a weekend, then that's what Apple has to do.  If Apple doesn't, then the share price is going to drop $20.  You think shareholders appreciate that?  Apple shouldn't release any product with less than 10 million units in inventory.  Tim Cook should anticipate Wall Street's reaction and act accordingly.  The last three products Apple released disappointed Wall Street due to inventory shortages.  How long is this going to happen before Tim Cook gets a clue?  Take some of those billions in reserve cash and get some more factories and workers online or start building fully automated factories that run 24/7.  Apple sitting on $124 billion in reserve cash is absolutely useless to shareholders.  In one month, Apple has lost $60 billion in market cap.  A couple of billion dollars of reserve cash put into device production would have saved tens of billions of dollars in market cap.  Wall Street wants instant gratification and it's Tim Cook's responsibility to give them what they want.

    /s

    Lol. The thing is you have to be more clever than those guys and hit the buy button when the stock gets over sold like that. But I think the main concern on wall street is Apple guide a 15% year of year decline for the holiday quarters. So is Apple really going to make less this year with the iphone 5, the ipad mini and the ipad 4 than it did last year with just the new iphone 4s and the 10 month old ipad2?

    This a major trend reversal, between 2010 and 2011 apple did 110% year over year growth. I think the stock is probally going to tank to the lower 500 and then rally to around 600 for the earnings. This is if we dont get any news that hints Apple has really lowball this one. The problem is Apple didnt lowball the previous 2 quarters, they barely beat guidance.
  • Reply 14 of 45
    matrix07matrix07 Posts: 1,993member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    34 countries opening weekend plus the timeframe in which we've seen what are now revealed as legitimate HW leaks tells me they have made a lot of these things so a couple million opening weekend does seem possible to me, assuming they have enough buyers.


    They have enough buyers (even though it's a bit more expensive than I'd like). The question only is how many they had made?

  • Reply 15 of 45
    You might think it's the best problem for a company to have but Wall Street thinks far differently.  Why do you think Apple's share price is in the toilet?  Because of Tim Cook's and Apple's lousy supply chain. 

    Nope. It's in the toilet cause folks were not impressed by the IPad Mini specs for the price, because of the firing of 'iOS Genius' Forstall and Retail disaster Browett, for all the issues with the iPhone 5 and iOS 6 beyond the scuffs and Maps app (although the complaints about the maps data didn't help) and so on.

    These issues are being trumped up as 'proof' that Tim Cook can't handle the job and the folks crying about how Apple will tank without Steve were right. So folks are getting out now, which is really what is tanking things.

    'Production issues' is a classic and long standing move by analysts to cover up that they are likely wrong about sales projections etc. they can claim they would have been right 'but there were issues'.
  • Reply 16 of 45
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    A little OT, but Engadget has an editorial up essentially having a go and Google and Amazon for pushing the sell hardware at cost or a loss model. Basically saying that competition gets squeezed and innovation stalls. Coming from Engadget all I have to say is WOW.

    http://www.engadget.com/2012/11/03/editorial-amazon-and-google-are-undermining-mobile-pricing/

    Of course the author gets totally ripped in the comments section as being an apple fanboy. :lol:
  • Reply 17 of 45
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    rogifan wrote: »
    A little OT, but Engadget has an editorial up essentially having a go and Google and Amazon for pushing the sell hardware at cost or a loss model. Basically saying that competition gets squeezed and innovation stalls. Coming from Engadget all I have to say is WOW.
    http://www.engadget.com/2012/11/03/editorial-amazon-and-google-are-undermining-mobile-pricing/
    Of course the author gets totally ripped in the comments section as being an apple fanboy. :lol:

    As noted by someone, somewhere it's interesting that Apple doesn't paly that game with any of their products. they never did it with Macs and now we have most PC vendors struggling to stay in the black with Apple making about 1/3rd of all PC profits in the world. I suspect that, at worst, the tablet will fall into the same pattern and, at best, we get the iPod scenario all over again where there is no viable PMP but the iPod. Who outside tech forums even refers to the market as the PMP market? You're more likely to hear it called the 3rd-party iPod market.
  • Reply 18 of 45
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,214member
    charlituna wrote: »
    Nope. It's in the toilet cause folks were not impressed by the IPad Mini specs for the price, because of the firing of 'iOS Genius' Forstall and Retail disaster Browett, for all the issues with the iPhone 5 and iOS 6 beyond the scuffs and Maps app (although the complaints about the maps data didn't help) and so on.
    These issues are being trumped up as 'proof' that Tim Cook can't handle the job and the folks crying about how Apple will tank without Steve were right. So folks are getting out now, which is really what is tanking things.
    'Production issues' is a classic and long standing move by analysts to cover up that they are likely wrong about sales projections etc. they can claim they would have been right 'but there were issues'.

    Personnaly I think the demand is still there. Look at the revenu guidance, its in line with estimates. The problem is EPS. Margins are going to decrease. If sales are still great, this would be a textbook case to buy back shares to temper the margins impacts. Good news is Apple is suppose to start buying back shares since October. On the call they said margins are going to improve in Q2, so Q1 makes if even more attractive for the shares buyback.
  • Reply 19 of 45
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    What's amazing is this tablet that is getting ripped for being overpriced is actually getting good reviews, even discounting the non-retina display. The Verge gave it a 9/10, two British papers gave it 5 stars, even sites like Engadget and c|net (not known for being Apple fanboys) gave it good reviews. Over at the MacRumors forums it's getting mostly high praise, especially for build quality and how thin and light it is. Seems to me some people are butt-hurt because they wanted to proclaim the mini DOA based on specs but the reviews are telling a different story.
  • Reply 20 of 45
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    solipsismx wrote: »
    As noted by someone, somewhere it's interesting that Apple doesn't paly that game with any of their products. they never did it with Macs and now we have most PC vendors struggling to stay in the black with Apple making about 1/3rd of all PC profits in the world. I suspect that, at worst, the tablet will fall into the same pattern and, at best, we get the iPod scenario all over again where there is no viable PMP but the iPod. Who outside tech forums even refers to the market as the PMP market? You're more likely to hear it called the 3rd-party iPod market.
    The midguided thinking here is that hardware is a comodity and the model is to sell cheap hardware and make it up in content sales. The problem is who's making money off content? Could Amazon really sustain its business off the sales of books, music, movies, TV shows and free, 99¢ or $1.99 apps? Apple's content business is little more than a break even business. I can't imagine Amazon Is making a ton of money off it either, or Google with Google Play. To make this work apps and other content would have to be a lot more expensive than they are now. Look at video games. Not cheap. Right now people love this model because the hardware is cheap and so is the content (for the most part). But that's not sustainable. There's a reasons Microsoft didn't price the Surface dirt cheap.

    Oh and one other thing. There's only one reason some of these non-Apple tables are so cheap. Because that was the only way they could compete. But rather than admit it, they come up with some BS story that they think some gullible people will believe. And even if you think the iPad is overpriced what is the right price for a tablet? Who decided they should be $199 or $249 and no more? Who decides what a fair profit margin is? Obviously the market decides. In the case of Apple it's considered more of a luxury or premium brand. People will pay $200 for a Coach purse when they can get one for $40 at Kohl's. Are they being ripped off? Of course not because they're voluntarily making the choice to buy a product that's more expensive (for a variety of reasons). In the case of Apple people choose to pay a premium for their product. Amazon and Google conglobate dirt cheap route, but I don't see that hurting Apple as much as other hardware OEM's that don't have the means to subsidize their hardware.
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