I think the reality is that the market has realised that the competition has caught up with Apple with regards to phones ( The 5 is a dud, easily scratched, ugly and ageing OS. Im on my third ) and tablets its retina laptops are outrageously overpriced, its Macbook airs are being copied by Ultrabooks and there is no blockbuster product coming down the line. Before we say AppleTV, its a cutthroat business and consumers want bangs for the buck. Sony a premium seller cant make money. In software they have been getting sloppy with putting out half baked products like FCPX and maps and have been ignoring the pro market with no major Mac Pro upgrade for years.
Not looking good, especially when a lot of iPhone owners are looking at other phones for the first time. And thats the cash cow.
Please, get a grip. Apple will sell 180 million+ iPhone 5 this fiscal year. Compared to 125 million last year. It is not a dud
I'm surprised by some of the idiotic, reactive comments on this board. Apple is having its best quarter in its history and will generate north of $52 billion in revenues. It just launched the iPad mini to overwhelming success. It refreshed almost its whole product line in the last six months. It is just getting started in China. It launches major OSX and iOS releases every year. Supply is catching up with demand. ITunes and app revenue is growing 35%+ a year
The sky is not falling. I added to my investment yesterday
It's not a simple topic. I already read a lot about Apple. If I was going to invest in AAPL right now, I would be examining their fundamentals to a much closer degree. There are a lot of things that aren't as simple as you might like, such as the way they report sales. They report sales as a combined figure of both units sold directly to end customers and units sold to wireless carriers. This can affect some of their numbers. If carriers reduce their orders due to existing stock, it affects these numbers. Obviously I wouldn't expect that on any given products during their respective launch quarters. I'd want to look at possible carriers that might take on the iphone or provide mobile service for ipad users. I'd want to know more about their launch cycles in different countries. Right now I read a lot about them, just not to that degree. Simply reducing it to current P/E ratio isn't much in the way of research if you're buying a lot of them at current pricing. Your bare minimum purchase is likely to be in the five figure range. I think that warrants real research.
I have been following Apple for several years. The ups and downs don't have much to do with the news cycle. People just use things in the news to rationalize movements in the stock. Some pieces of news are a catalyst that starts a move up or down and then a bunch of articles come out to reinforce that movement.
Here is an article that explains the most likely cause of the decline and slingshot effect down (and soon to come up).
Apple will go back up from it's current $530 price to $700 and more over the next few months and all of the sudden the press will right all these positive stories about why the stock is going up because the company is doing so well. In a matter of days, with no fundamental change in how Apple "the company" is doing, the press will change their tune about how Apple "the company" is doing because of how well Apple "the stock" is doing.
I believe this article best summarizes that Apple is going to have another great year. This does not mean that Apple is better than Android, just that Apple has a great new lineup, will grow more than 20% next year, margins will grow as the product line refresh gets behind it, an that a PE ratio of 10 won't last for a company growing at the rate it is.
Clearly, the stock is being manipulated by hedge fund managers and other big boys to give them a buying opportunity. It should be illegal, but these guys are the top donors to both parties, so we all have to sit by and witness this theft.
This. Look no further than hedge fund manager Doug Kass whose been spreading a ton of FUD and helped shave off $130bn in market cap and now he's saying Apple is a buy. Apple is the most manipulated stock in the stock market. Everyone knows it, but spreading FUD is better click bait than talking about hedge fund managers manipulating the stock.
All the amateur day traders are killing what the stock market is about. Buying one minute, selling the next and vice versa.
I agree with that to a certain extend. It used to be if you wanted to sell a stock you had to get your broker on the phone and pay a decent fee. It made people think before they acted. Again, it is why I think the concept of investing has been undermined. If you buy a stock today, and sell it today to make a quick buck it isn't investing. More importantly, it undermines the value of the supposed investment of true investors and the companies themselves.
I am sure you know enough math to know that it's nowhere near a 25% decline (since that would put the Dow at 10,350).
That is true, but my point was Apple is dropping when the over all market has been taking a bath for the same time period. Apple also took a good hit in the same period when it beat its own earnings forecasted, but missed those of the so called experts. Apple generally seems to amplify whatever the market is doing. So, generally if the market is doing well, Apple will do very well. If the market is down, Apple will be really down.
Betting on bad news should be illegal!? What next? Newspapers should be legislated out of business? Whining should be made illegal? Sadness should be outlawed?
No, betting on bad news should not be illegal. However, betting should be separated from "investing." You should not be allowed to bet against my investment using my investment to do so. This gives you an incentive to try and make the value of my investment drop. That benefits nobody but you, and undermines me, the company, and the over all economy.
Moreover, you illustrate the problem. Buying and selling stock was never intended to be betting. It was intended as a way to buy into a company you believe in for the hope of a profit to the benefit of both the investor and company.
The investment market should be confined strictly to buying and selling of the actual stock. So if you want to "bet" on bad news, you sell stock you already own. Now I don't have a problem creating another market for the so called betters. Perhaps, it could be conducted at the same place horse racing is done.
I think the reality is that the market has realised that the competition has caught up with Apple with regards to phones ( The 5 is a dud, easily scratched, ugly and ageing OS. Im on my third ) and tablets its retina laptops are outrageously overpriced, its Macbook airs are being copied by Ultrabooks and there is no blockbuster product coming down the line. Before we say AppleTV, its a cutthroat business and consumers want bangs for the buck. Sony a premium seller cant make money. In software they have been getting sloppy with putting out half baked products like FCPX and maps and have been ignoring the pro market with no major Mac Pro upgrade for years.
Not looking good, especially when a lot of iPhone owners are looking at other phones for the first time. And thats the cash cow.
I'd like to see your evidence of a lot of iPhone users looking at other phones for the first time because I highly doubt it. Most people become comfortable in an ecosystem and stay there. It is why Windows did so well for so long. As far as being a dud goes, I always thought a dude implied a lack of sales, yet Apple is still reporting a two to three weeks delay online. That sort of undermines your credibility.
The Democrats strike again. They won't be happy until they can turn their Great Recession into a Great Depression. Liberal Democrats were never happier than under FDR.
And there's no question that's what's happening. The three state in the worst economic shape--California, Illinois and New York, are heavily Democratic. And Detroit, perhaps the worst major city in the country, hasn't elected anyone but liberal Democrats in half a century.
Keep in mind another factor for Apple's stock fall. Many of those with Apple 'stuff' already have an older model. In this dismal Obama economy, they're going to be delaying upgrades.
wow. the right wing fantasies keep spinning and spinning up more nonsense. The problem is a corrupt Repulican majority along with some Democrats deregulated Wall Street which of course led to run away greed and fraud. This greed and fraud caused the housing bubble to grow and burst. The bankers got bailed out and everyone else got shit on. It continues to boggle my mind how the majority of republicans are not wealthy yet love to get bent over by the 1% and take it like they love it.
People like Romney and the 1% are directly responsible for the problems this country faces. Romney personally outsource american jobs to China and India while at Bain Capital. Outsourcing destroys the wage base which decreases tax income so we have to scale back our military and weaken America. Yet the clueless Republican base gobbles up everything they hear on Faux News and blame the Democrats. Funny how his campaign was about how he would "protect" american workers. His idea of protection is providing minimum wage jobs with no benefits or health insurance.
Both parties are to blame and in the end it is the illiterate voters in America which keep voting for the same lying traitors. Until people wake up and stop voting for the same Republicans and Democrats nothing is going to change.
Yes, and perhaps that explains the Dow dropping from around 13, 800 to about 12, 500 in the same time period Apple's stock dropped?
You raise a good point. The market overall is down. Something that often happens this time of year, double with an election etc.
I would say that the decline of Apples stock is from a combination of general market decline, some folks that aren't really serious investors getting out over the gains rate hike and folks buying into the analysts etc and their hyperbolic estimates etc about sales, products etc
It just seems like yesterday when AAPL raced to $200 only to drop to $80 a short time later. The sky was falling. Apple was finished. End of story for a tech company that showed so much promise.
... and then it rose to $700.
That last drop as I recall was the one win it leaked out about Steve's cancer and the details of what kind. At that point the world was all Apple is Steve and only Steve. His bringing others onstage etc to dissuade that thinking started shortly after that summer. As did an increase in the Jony and friends videos going on the website etc
Maybe the market is reacting to how the company is doing without Steve. There's been a lot of mistakes and very little being done about them. The product lines are turning into a mess with updates taking longer and then delays in delivery. If we're seeing the future of Apple, we will soon be talking about the good ol' days in the not too distant future.
We haven't seen any actual delays in delivery other than iTunes 11. Just analysts claiming delays because they fear their numbers will be wrong. The iMac rumor is still a rumor.
As for the timetables, much of that could be the result of when there was the right components. If Intel or whomever delays releasing their part there's little Apple can do. And if Apple releases the same old thing with a stupid spec bump they get slammed for that since they aren't telling what the bigger plan is up front to protect said plans. So they go for something radical and get slammed on the blogs for it (case in point the iMac redesign). Basically on this front Apple is damned no matter what.
Tech in general is reaching a plateau. It happens. The boys have an idea and race to make it the best they can and then things slow down when there's little left to tweak and they need to think up a new idea. Not Apple's fault anymore than the Dow reacting to the economy, the presidential election etc is Apple's fault
But yes I agree that perception, caused by blogs and analysts and the hyperbole of both, about how the company is doing would be a factor
Market assumptions may not understand the current political will. There is also the possibility that capital gains rates are restructured to favor more long-term investments, while hiking the short-term rates. Define short-term as anything under three years, then step the rate down to even lower levels for investment held for longer periods of time.
That would actually increase the stock value of a company like Apple who plays the long game.
Your point being what? Stocks always drop after a keynote. That just happened to be the high at the time.
Of course, if you're insinuating that the stocks are controlled by people intelligent enough to understand what I've always said about the darn thing and who are themselves believing what I'm saying about what it implies for Apple, then I completely and utterly agree with you.
But if you're insinuating that the product (hardware+software) itself is bad, no. Period.
No, betting on bad news should not be illegal. However, betting should be separated from "investing." You should not be allowed to bet against my investment using my investment to do so. This gives you an incentive to try and make the value of my investment drop. That benefits nobody but you, and undermines me, the company, and the over all economy.
Moreover, you illustrate the problem. Buying and selling stock was never intended to be betting. It was intended as a way to buy into a company you believe in for the hope of a profit to the benefit of both the investor and company.
The investment market should be confined strictly to buying and selling of the actual stock. So if you want to "bet" on bad news, you sell stock you already own. Now I don't have a problem creating another market for the so called betters. Perhaps, it could be conducted at the same place horse racing is done.
Under your logic, option trading should be banned, since buying a put option is exactly equivalent to making a short sale (I make money on a put only when the tock price falls below the exercise price).
Yet, every time you hedge, every time you buy insurance, every time you put a floor on your losses in your portfolio, you are, in essence, buying a put option.
Would you outlaw all hedging and insurance as well?
That last drop as I recall was the one win it leaked out about Steve's cancer and the details of what kind. At that point the world was all Apple is Steve and only Steve. His bringing others onstage etc to dissuade that thinking started shortly after that summer. As did an increase in the Jony and friends videos going on the website etc
No, betting on bad news should not be illegal. However, betting should be separated from "investing." You should not be allowed to bet against my investment using my investment to do so. This gives you an incentive to try and make the value of my investment drop. That benefits nobody but you, and undermines me, the company, and the over all economy.
Moreover, you illustrate the problem. Buying and selling stock was never intended to be betting. It was intended as a way to buy into a company you believe in for the hope of a profit to the benefit of both the investor and company.
The investment market should be confined strictly to buying and selling of the actual stock. So if you want to "bet" on bad news, you sell stock you already own. Now I don't have a problem creating another market for the so called betters. Perhaps, it could be conducted at the same place horse racing is done.
So your objection is related to option trading or just flipping stocks?
Comments
Not looking good, especially when a lot of iPhone owners are looking at other phones for the first time. And thats the cash cow.
Please, get a grip. Apple will sell 180 million+ iPhone 5 this fiscal year. Compared to 125 million last year. It is not a dud
I'm surprised by some of the idiotic, reactive comments on this board. Apple is having its best quarter in its history and will generate north of $52 billion in revenues. It just launched the iPad mini to overwhelming success. It refreshed almost its whole product line in the last six months. It is just getting started in China. It launches major OSX and iOS releases every year. Supply is catching up with demand. ITunes and app revenue is growing 35%+ a year
The sky is not falling. I added to my investment yesterday
It's not a simple topic. I already read a lot about Apple. If I was going to invest in AAPL right now, I would be examining their fundamentals to a much closer degree. There are a lot of things that aren't as simple as you might like, such as the way they report sales. They report sales as a combined figure of both units sold directly to end customers and units sold to wireless carriers. This can affect some of their numbers. If carriers reduce their orders due to existing stock, it affects these numbers. Obviously I wouldn't expect that on any given products during their respective launch quarters. I'd want to look at possible carriers that might take on the iphone or provide mobile service for ipad users. I'd want to know more about their launch cycles in different countries. Right now I read a lot about them, just not to that degree. Simply reducing it to current P/E ratio isn't much in the way of research if you're buying a lot of them at current pricing. Your bare minimum purchase is likely to be in the five figure range. I think that warrants real research.
AAPL is not the only stock that has gone up substantially in the last few years. The others have not gone down at the same rate.
Voting against one's self interest does not equate self-loathing. There's nothing wrong with being rich.
Here is an article that explains the most likely cause of the decline and slingshot effect down (and soon to come up).
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11770503/1/apple-slingshot-making-sense-of-the-apparently-irrational.html
Apple will go back up from it's current $530 price to $700 and more over the next few months and all of the sudden the press will right all these positive stories about why the stock is going up because the company is doing so well. In a matter of days, with no fundamental change in how Apple "the company" is doing, the press will change their tune about how Apple "the company" is doing because of how well Apple "the stock" is doing.
I believe this article best summarizes that Apple is going to have another great year. This does not mean that Apple is better than Android, just that Apple has a great new lineup, will grow more than 20% next year, margins will grow as the product line refresh gets behind it, an that a PE ratio of 10 won't last for a company growing at the rate it is.
http://nanseninvestments.com/2012/11/03/apples-golden-age-right-around-the-corner-now-at-a-record-low-valuation/
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69
All the amateur day traders are killing what the stock market is about. Buying one minute, selling the next and vice versa.
I agree with that to a certain extend. It used to be if you wanted to sell a stock you had to get your broker on the phone and pay a decent fee. It made people think before they acted. Again, it is why I think the concept of investing has been undermined. If you buy a stock today, and sell it today to make a quick buck it isn't investing. More importantly, it undermines the value of the supposed investment of true investors and the companies themselves.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
I am sure you know enough math to know that it's nowhere near a 25% decline (since that would put the Dow at 10,350).
That is true, but my point was Apple is dropping when the over all market has been taking a bath for the same time period. Apple also took a good hit in the same period when it beat its own earnings forecasted, but missed those of the so called experts. Apple generally seems to amplify whatever the market is doing. So, generally if the market is doing well, Apple will do very well. If the market is down, Apple will be really down.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Betting on bad news should be illegal!? What next? Newspapers should be legislated out of business? Whining should be made illegal? Sadness should be outlawed?
No, betting on bad news should not be illegal. However, betting should be separated from "investing." You should not be allowed to bet against my investment using my investment to do so. This gives you an incentive to try and make the value of my investment drop. That benefits nobody but you, and undermines me, the company, and the over all economy.
Moreover, you illustrate the problem. Buying and selling stock was never intended to be betting. It was intended as a way to buy into a company you believe in for the hope of a profit to the benefit of both the investor and company.
The investment market should be confined strictly to buying and selling of the actual stock. So if you want to "bet" on bad news, you sell stock you already own. Now I don't have a problem creating another market for the so called betters. Perhaps, it could be conducted at the same place horse racing is done.
Quote:
Originally Posted by morgajx
I think the reality is that the market has realised that the competition has caught up with Apple with regards to phones ( The 5 is a dud, easily scratched, ugly and ageing OS. Im on my third ) and tablets its retina laptops are outrageously overpriced, its Macbook airs are being copied by Ultrabooks and there is no blockbuster product coming down the line. Before we say AppleTV, its a cutthroat business and consumers want bangs for the buck. Sony a premium seller cant make money. In software they have been getting sloppy with putting out half baked products like FCPX and maps and have been ignoring the pro market with no major Mac Pro upgrade for years.
Not looking good, especially when a lot of iPhone owners are looking at other phones for the first time. And thats the cash cow.
I'd like to see your evidence of a lot of iPhone users looking at other phones for the first time because I highly doubt it. Most people become comfortable in an ecosystem and stay there. It is why Windows did so well for so long. As far as being a dud goes, I always thought a dude implied a lack of sales, yet Apple is still reporting a two to three weeks delay online. That sort of undermines your credibility.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inkling
The Democrats strike again. They won't be happy until they can turn their Great Recession into a Great Depression. Liberal Democrats were never happier than under FDR.
And there's no question that's what's happening. The three state in the worst economic shape--California, Illinois and New York, are heavily Democratic. And Detroit, perhaps the worst major city in the country, hasn't elected anyone but liberal Democrats in half a century.
Keep in mind another factor for Apple's stock fall. Many of those with Apple 'stuff' already have an older model. In this dismal Obama economy, they're going to be delaying upgrades.
wow. the right wing fantasies keep spinning and spinning up more nonsense. The problem is a corrupt Repulican majority along with some Democrats deregulated Wall Street which of course led to run away greed and fraud. This greed and fraud caused the housing bubble to grow and burst. The bankers got bailed out and everyone else got shit on. It continues to boggle my mind how the majority of republicans are not wealthy yet love to get bent over by the 1% and take it like they love it.
People like Romney and the 1% are directly responsible for the problems this country faces. Romney personally outsource american jobs to China and India while at Bain Capital. Outsourcing destroys the wage base which decreases tax income so we have to scale back our military and weaken America. Yet the clueless Republican base gobbles up everything they hear on Faux News and blame the Democrats. Funny how his campaign was about how he would "protect" american workers. His idea of protection is providing minimum wage jobs with no benefits or health insurance.
Both parties are to blame and in the end it is the illiterate voters in America which keep voting for the same lying traitors. Until people wake up and stop voting for the same Republicans and Democrats nothing is going to change.
You raise a good point. The market overall is down. Something that often happens this time of year, double with an election etc.
I would say that the decline of Apples stock is from a combination of general market decline, some folks that aren't really serious investors getting out over the gains rate hike and folks buying into the analysts etc and their hyperbolic estimates etc about sales, products etc
That last drop as I recall was the one win it leaked out about Steve's cancer and the details of what kind. At that point the world was all Apple is Steve and only Steve. His bringing others onstage etc to dissuade that thinking started shortly after that summer. As did an increase in the Jony and friends videos going on the website etc
We haven't seen any actual delays in delivery other than iTunes 11. Just analysts claiming delays because they fear their numbers will be wrong. The iMac rumor is still a rumor.
As for the timetables, much of that could be the result of when there was the right components. If Intel or whomever delays releasing their part there's little Apple can do. And if Apple releases the same old thing with a stupid spec bump they get slammed for that since they aren't telling what the bigger plan is up front to protect said plans. So they go for something radical and get slammed on the blogs for it (case in point the iMac redesign). Basically on this front Apple is damned no matter what.
Tech in general is reaching a plateau. It happens. The boys have an idea and race to make it the best they can and then things slow down when there's little left to tweak and they need to think up a new idea. Not Apple's fault anymore than the Dow reacting to the economy, the presidential election etc is Apple's fault
But yes I agree that perception, caused by blogs and analysts and the hyperbole of both, about how the company is doing would be a factor
That would actually increase the stock value of a company like Apple who plays the long game.
Originally Posted by macfb6
Sep 21?
iPhone 5
Your point being what? Stocks always drop after a keynote. That just happened to be the high at the time.
Of course, if you're insinuating that the stocks are controlled by people intelligent enough to understand what I've always said about the darn thing and who are themselves believing what I'm saying about what it implies for Apple, then I completely and utterly agree with you.
But if you're insinuating that the product (hardware+software) itself is bad, no. Period.
Under your logic, option trading should be banned, since buying a put option is exactly equivalent to making a short sale (I make money on a put only when the tock price falls below the exercise price).
Yet, every time you hedge, every time you buy insurance, every time you put a floor on your losses in your portfolio, you are, in essence, buying a put option.
Would you outlaw all hedging and insurance as well?
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna
That last drop as I recall was the one win it leaked out about Steve's cancer and the details of what kind. At that point the world was all Apple is Steve and only Steve. His bringing others onstage etc to dissuade that thinking started shortly after that summer. As did an increase in the Jony and friends videos going on the website etc
Exactly my point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell
No, betting on bad news should not be illegal. However, betting should be separated from "investing." You should not be allowed to bet against my investment using my investment to do so. This gives you an incentive to try and make the value of my investment drop. That benefits nobody but you, and undermines me, the company, and the over all economy.
Moreover, you illustrate the problem. Buying and selling stock was never intended to be betting. It was intended as a way to buy into a company you believe in for the hope of a profit to the benefit of both the investor and company.
The investment market should be confined strictly to buying and selling of the actual stock. So if you want to "bet" on bad news, you sell stock you already own. Now I don't have a problem creating another market for the so called betters. Perhaps, it could be conducted at the same place horse racing is done.
So your objection is related to option trading or just flipping stocks?