There's a TON of FUD out there regarding Apple right now. You'd have to be blind as a bat not to see it. Apple releases the iPhone 5 and sell 5 million over one weekend and investors yawn and ask 'where's the iPad mini?' Then Apple release the mini and the Wall Street gurus go 'big deal, it's just a smaller iPad, where's the iTV'. Just this past Friday there were two Wall Street analysts who cover Apple on CNBC spreading a bunch of FUD on Apple and innovation. It's like if Apple isn't releasing some revolutionary product every 6 months they're not innovating and are doomed to failure. Of course it doesn't help when you have guys like Woz out ther saying he thinks Microsoft is more innovative than Apple. :no:
What all these clowns forget is, Apple wasn't throwing out revolutionary product after revolutionary product every 6 months under Steve Jobs. The iMac came out in 1998. We didn't see the iPod until 2001, and then it wasn't until 2007 that we got the iPhone and 2010 the iPad.
Also, what other company is throwing out revolutionary products all the time? What's so innovative about 4.5" screens on phones? The reason they exist is because Android OEM's are slaves to the big telecoms who were pushing LTE. These phones had to be bigger to support a bigger battery to power LTE. To me Apple packing all this great technology into smaller, thinner and lighter devices is more innovative. I still marvel at the lightness of my iPhone 5 every time I pick it up. It's so thin and light and yet doesn't feel cheap at all. And when it comes to tablets, what's so innovative about 7" devices? It seems obvious Google and Amazon knew the only way they could compete with iPad was on price. So they created 7" tablets, sold them at cost and then got the media to focus on the $199 price as compared to what an iPad costs. Not sure how selling cheaper hardware at cost = innovation.
Also, what other company is throwing out revolutionary products all the time? What's so innovative about 4.5" screens on phones? The reason they exist is because Android OEM's are slaves to the big telecoms who were pushing LTE. These phones had to be bigger to support a bigger battery to power LTE.
I saw an LG phone with a 5", 3:4 screen. I walked out of the store. I wasn't done, I just couldn't deal with the sheer level of stupidity that went into making what I was seeing available for purchase by actual people.
Yes, I think it's very likely the capital gains rate is going to increase by a few % (it will most likely revert to 20%, but I've also heard the idea floated of reverting to Clinton levels of 18% as a 'compromise' measure)%u2026 but to point to THAT as 'the reason' Apple's stock has dropped? That's just called "making stuff up" and calling it "analysis"...
Since you are fond of Brits, I will quote you another. "Taxes are the price we pay to live in a civil society." Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. I will take good old Wendell over Thatcher any day.
Amongst other incoherencies, you quoted the wrong member of the American judiciary.
Yes, I think it's very likely the capital gains rate is going to increase by a few % (it will most likely revert to 20%, but I've also heard the idea floated of reverting to Clinton levels of 18% as a 'compromise' measure)%u2026 but to point to THAT as 'the reason' Apple's stock has dropped? That's just called "making stuff up" and calling it "analysis"...
Exactly. I've heard 20-22% as the target. Even if we assume the larger number, that's an increase of 7% from the current rate. AT WORST, the first 7% could be blamed on that (which happens to be reasonably close to the market's overall drop).
Fundamentally, it could be one of several things:
1. The market expects Apple's earnings to drop quite a bit in the coming months/years. Given that Apple's P/E ratio is already well below the market average, it would take a truly catastrophic drop in profit to cause that.
2. Investors who simply don't understand Apple and have simply succumbed to the "law of large numbers".
3. As someone else suggested, many investment firms are not allowed to have more than a certain percentage of their holdings in any one stock. Since Apple's shares have risen so dramatically in the past few years, many companies probably need to dump some AAPL to get back into balance.
4. The endless FUD being spread about Apple by competitors and people who should know better. Look at the maps issue, for example. It was a relatively minor issue and the only side-by-side comparison I saw said that it was about as good as Google Maps. And even if it was somewhat worse, it had no impact on Apple's revenues or profits - the iPhone 5 continued to set records for new device sales. Now, I won't speculate on whether this was stock manipulation or honest error, but there was certainly plenty of baseless FUD.
3. As someone else suggested, many investment firms are not allowed to have more than a certain percentage of their holdings in any one stock. Since Apple's shares have risen so dramatically in the past few years, many companies probably need to dump some AAPL to get back into balance.
I don't think this could explain the rapid sell off as the investment firms would be constantly regulating their holdings not a placing massive sell order at one time.
Big sell orders are not a wise strategy as it brings attention to your unfilled sell order and will usually lead to a lower value than market price at the time of the order being placed. Small incremental sell orders is the way these institutions would approach this issue of being over weighted in AAPL.
If M. Faber is right, the market will go down another 10% or so. It's nothing more than shaking out weak hands.
I agree with you.
... and which tech stock do you think will give you the best returns after the shake out.
Exactly.
and that's where the manipulation plays a part, otherwise there is no way in a level playing field that AAPL would reach $450... or even $525... no matter what the overall market sentiment was at the time.
MSFT, sure. AMZN, absolutely. GOOG, house of cards.
To say that AAPL is not being manipulated is to say that Apple is the same as buying any other tech stock... or any other stock for that matter.
To say that AAPL is not being manipulated is to say that Apple is the same as buying any other tech stock... or any other stock for that matter.
I think you are conveniently ignoring a number of factors.
1) Let's say you own $100,000 in both AAPL and $100,000 in MSFT where you have a 500% profit in AAPL and a %0 profit in MSFT. If you did want to avoid a possible increase in capital gains tax which stock would you sell?
2) Manipulating AAPL in some secretive or illegal manner is almost impossible. Spreading negative rumors is not only going to be ineffectual, having the stock retreat doesn't help you if you already own AAPL shares which ALL of the hedge funds do. If that happens you could be selling just to cut your losses so what is the point? Small investors that might be stupid enough to be persuaded that AAPL was a bad investment and that they should sell makes up only a tiny insignificant portion of the outstanding shares. It would be just a tick down, nothing more. It can't explain the sudden drop.
Speaking of FUD, there was an article in the LA Times about th Kindle Fire being predicted to outsell the iPad 2-1 this holiday season. This prediction was all based on site called CouponCodes4u.com which said people that visited their site searched for Kindle Fire more than iPad. And this is reported by the LA Times as newsworthy! When you go to that site you find the following at the bottom:
CouponCodes4u.com is operated by Markco Media Ltd. Markco Media Ltd. is registered in England and Wales with Company No. 06327961 and VAT Registration 920963422
Of course this isn't newsworthy based on the source, but the media obviously doesn't care so long as they can predict D&G for Apple. Same with the stories wondering if the Nexus 7 will outsell the iPad because it supposedly is "sold out". Yet neither Google nor Asus are giving out hard sales figures. Sold out means nothing if you don't know how many were available for sale. And all Asus has said is they're selling about a million a month. OK, well Apple just announced they sold 3 million iPads in 3 days, so how on earth could the Nexus, or Kindle Fire for that matter, come close to beating that?!? More FUD.
Speaking of FUD, there was an article in the LA Times about th Kindle Fire being predicted to outsell the iPad 2-1 this holiday season. This prediction was all based on site called CouponCodes4u.com which said people that visited their site searched for Kindle Fire more than iPad. And this is reported by the LA Times as newsworthy! When you go to that site you find the following at the bottom:
CouponCodes4u.com is operated by Markco Media Ltd. Markco Media Ltd. is registered in England and Wales with Company No. 06327961 and VAT Registration 920963422
Of course this isn't newsworthy based on the source, but the media obviously doesn't care so long as they can predict D&G for Apple. Same with the stories wondering if the Nexus 7 will outsell the iPad because it supposedly is "sold out". Yet neither Google nor Asus are giving out hard sales figures. Sold out means nothing if you don't know how many were available for sale. And all Asus has said is they're selling about a million a month. OK, well Apple just announced they sold 3 million iPads in 3 days, so how on earth could the Nexus, or Kindle Fire for that matter, come close to beating that?!? More FUD.
I've never seen a claim that the Nexus 7 would outsell the Mini over the holidays. Where did you see such a ridiculous expectation? There's no single tablet that's going to outsell the iPad mini this quarter, including Apple's own iPad, unless they just can't produce many which is pretty darn unlikely.
Of course this isn't newsworthy based on the source, but the media obviously doesn't care so long as they can predict D&G for Apple.
Any attempt to diminish the enthusiasm for Apple gear with dire predictions will be completely ineffectual as is evident by the massive crowds in the Apple Stores.
Just like the Republican's errant prediction of a landslide victory for Romney, the general public will vote however they want and this time it is with their wallets. They want iPad minis for the holidays apparently.
I think it's several factors, including a feeling in the market that Apple's best days are behind them. There is a sentiment, particularly with the lack of innovation coming from Apple, and the poor launch of the new maps app, that Apple isn't the same company that it was under Jobs before cancer began to limit his involvement. Cook simply lacks charisma...
…Apple isn't the same company that it was under Jobs before cancer began to limit his involvement.
So pre-2004, then.
Agreed, though, that Tim should leave the presenting to his fellow executives. Jony has a lot of heart whenever we see him, but I'm sure he gets dreadful stage fright so I doubt we'll ever see him on stage. That means Phil. And I would have said Forstall for the manic, obsessive half of that, but…
American's need to start demanding significant cuts in spending, or we will find ourselves so deep in a hole that the it will make peoples heads spin. You think living in Greece is fun right now? Our elected officials have been irresponsible, including this current president in borrowing another 6 trillion dollars in just 4 years.
I don't think this could explain the rapid sell off as the investment firms would be constantly regulating their holdings not a placing massive sell order at one time.
Big sell orders are not a wise strategy as it brings attention to your unfilled sell order and will usually lead to a lower value than market price at the time of the order being placed. Small incremental sell orders is the way these institutions would approach this issue of being over weighted in AAPL.
Maybe. The problem is that if a fund is required to have no more than, say, 10% of their shares in one stock, they usually don't have to meet that target until year end. So it's OK to have 15 or 20% of their money in AAPL as long as they're down to 10% by year end.
The conflict is that AAPL has been a huge winner for a long time. So they would want to keep their money in AAPL as long as possible - even if a massive sale cases the shares to drop by a few points. So, under normal circumstances, mutual funds hold their investments until mid-December and then do their shuffling.
The problem is that no one predicted the drop over the last 2 months. Once it starts to drop, the other companies may panic and say "I'll lock in the gains I have so far so I can get out before it tumbles further, so the selling frenzy feeds on itself.
Ultimately, that is the risk from having a stock that's so large and makes up such a large part of so many portfolios. When it starts to drop, people with lots of money in AAPL can panic whereas they are less likely to do so for a stock that's only a few percent of their holdings.
Maybe. The problem is that if a fund is required to have no more than, say, 10% of their shares in one stock, they usually don't have to meet that target until year end. So it's OK to have 15 or 20% of their money in AAPL as long as they're down to 10% by year end.
I'm not sure but I suspect it goes quarter by quarter so they would be adjusting every quarter but in this situation it is more like a double witching event because there are regular taxes to pay as well as the looming fiscal cliff so the motivation to sell may be greater at year's end, as you suggest. I still argue that it has little to do with Apple's performance or disingenuous bad press and more to do with worldwide economic indicators and national debt issues post election.
Originally Posted by mstone2) Manipulating AAPL in some secretive or illegal manner is almost impossible. Spreading negative rumors is not only going to be ineffectual, having the stock retreat doesn't help you if you already own AAPL shares which ALL of the hedge funds do. If that happens you could be selling just to cut your losses so what is the point? Small investors that might be stupid enough to be persuaded that AAPL was a bad investment and that they should sell makes up only a tiny insignificant portion of the outstanding shares. It would be just a tick down, nothing more. It can't explain the sudden drop.
Just keep believing that there is no manipulation on Wall Street.
For me that thought is right up there with the Tooth Fairy.
Comments
What all these clowns forget is, Apple wasn't throwing out revolutionary product after revolutionary product every 6 months under Steve Jobs. The iMac came out in 1998. We didn't see the iPod until 2001, and then it wasn't until 2007 that we got the iPhone and 2010 the iPad.
Also, what other company is throwing out revolutionary products all the time? What's so innovative about 4.5" screens on phones? The reason they exist is because Android OEM's are slaves to the big telecoms who were pushing LTE. These phones had to be bigger to support a bigger battery to power LTE. To me Apple packing all this great technology into smaller, thinner and lighter devices is more innovative. I still marvel at the lightness of my iPhone 5 every time I pick it up. It's so thin and light and yet doesn't feel cheap at all. And when it comes to tablets, what's so innovative about 7" devices? It seems obvious Google and Amazon knew the only way they could compete with iPad was on price. So they created 7" tablets, sold them at cost and then got the media to focus on the $199 price as compared to what an iPad costs. Not sure how selling cheaper hardware at cost = innovation.
Originally Posted by Rogifan
Also, what other company is throwing out revolutionary products all the time? What's so innovative about 4.5" screens on phones? The reason they exist is because Android OEM's are slaves to the big telecoms who were pushing LTE. These phones had to be bigger to support a bigger battery to power LTE.
I saw an LG phone with a 5", 3:4 screen. I walked out of the store. I wasn't done, I just couldn't deal with the sheer level of stupidity that went into making what I was seeing available for purchase by actual people.
This is all wrong!
Apple stock is down because iOS 6 Maps app sucks.
And they are constantly suing everyone under the sun. It's simply coming back to bite them.
They need to stop litigating and start innovating!
I even heard that Apple sued a grandma because she said her grandchild is the "apple of my eye".
/s
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
For every seller there is a buyer?
Maybe you and I have a different understanding of how the market works.
I'm buying 200 @$450.
If M. Faber is right, the market will go down another 10% or so. It's nothing more than shaking out weak hands.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell
Since you are fond of Brits, I will quote you another. "Taxes are the price we pay to live in a civil society." Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. I will take good old Wendell over Thatcher any day.
Amongst other incoherencies, you quoted the wrong member of the American judiciary.
Cheers
Exactly. I've heard 20-22% as the target. Even if we assume the larger number, that's an increase of 7% from the current rate. AT WORST, the first 7% could be blamed on that (which happens to be reasonably close to the market's overall drop).
Fundamentally, it could be one of several things:
1. The market expects Apple's earnings to drop quite a bit in the coming months/years. Given that Apple's P/E ratio is already well below the market average, it would take a truly catastrophic drop in profit to cause that.
2. Investors who simply don't understand Apple and have simply succumbed to the "law of large numbers".
3. As someone else suggested, many investment firms are not allowed to have more than a certain percentage of their holdings in any one stock. Since Apple's shares have risen so dramatically in the past few years, many companies probably need to dump some AAPL to get back into balance.
4. The endless FUD being spread about Apple by competitors and people who should know better. Look at the maps issue, for example. It was a relatively minor issue and the only side-by-side comparison I saw said that it was about as good as Google Maps. And even if it was somewhat worse, it had no impact on Apple's revenues or profits - the iPhone 5 continued to set records for new device sales. Now, I won't speculate on whether this was stock manipulation or honest error, but there was certainly plenty of baseless FUD.
Actually not. That quote has been widely attributed to Oliver Wendell Holmes:
http://www.politicalhotwire.com/general-political-discussion/18462-taxes-price-we-pay-live-civil-society.html
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta
3. As someone else suggested, many investment firms are not allowed to have more than a certain percentage of their holdings in any one stock. Since Apple's shares have risen so dramatically in the past few years, many companies probably need to dump some AAPL to get back into balance.
I don't think this could explain the rapid sell off as the investment firms would be constantly regulating their holdings not a placing massive sell order at one time.
Big sell orders are not a wise strategy as it brings attention to your unfilled sell order and will usually lead to a lower value than market price at the time of the order being placed. Small incremental sell orders is the way these institutions would approach this issue of being over weighted in AAPL.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tooltalk
I'm buying 200 @$450.
If M. Faber is right, the market will go down another 10% or so. It's nothing more than shaking out weak hands.
I agree with you.
... and which tech stock do you think will give you the best returns after the shake out.
Exactly.
and that's where the manipulation plays a part, otherwise there is no way in a level playing field that AAPL would reach $450... or even $525... no matter what the overall market sentiment was at the time.
MSFT, sure. AMZN, absolutely. GOOG, house of cards.
To say that AAPL is not being manipulated is to say that Apple is the same as buying any other tech stock... or any other stock for that matter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
To say that AAPL is not being manipulated is to say that Apple is the same as buying any other tech stock... or any other stock for that matter.
I think you are conveniently ignoring a number of factors.
1) Let's say you own $100,000 in both AAPL and $100,000 in MSFT where you have a 500% profit in AAPL and a %0 profit in MSFT. If you did want to avoid a possible increase in capital gains tax which stock would you sell?
2) Manipulating AAPL in some secretive or illegal manner is almost impossible. Spreading negative rumors is not only going to be ineffectual, having the stock retreat doesn't help you if you already own AAPL shares which ALL of the hedge funds do. If that happens you could be selling just to cut your losses so what is the point? Small investors that might be stupid enough to be persuaded that AAPL was a bad investment and that they should sell makes up only a tiny insignificant portion of the outstanding shares. It would be just a tick down, nothing more. It can't explain the sudden drop.
CouponCodes4u.com is operated by Markco Media Ltd. Markco Media Ltd. is registered in England and Wales with Company No. 06327961 and VAT Registration 920963422
Of course this isn't newsworthy based on the source, but the media obviously doesn't care so long as they can predict D&G for Apple. Same with the stories wondering if the Nexus 7 will outsell the iPad because it supposedly is "sold out". Yet neither Google nor Asus are giving out hard sales figures. Sold out means nothing if you don't know how many were available for sale. And all Asus has said is they're selling about a million a month. OK, well Apple just announced they sold 3 million iPads in 3 days, so how on earth could the Nexus, or Kindle Fire for that matter, come close to beating that?!? More FUD.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
Speaking of FUD, there was an article in the LA Times about th Kindle Fire being predicted to outsell the iPad 2-1 this holiday season. This prediction was all based on site called CouponCodes4u.com which said people that visited their site searched for Kindle Fire more than iPad. And this is reported by the LA Times as newsworthy! When you go to that site you find the following at the bottom:
CouponCodes4u.com is operated by Markco Media Ltd. Markco Media Ltd. is registered in England and Wales with Company No. 06327961 and VAT Registration 920963422
Of course this isn't newsworthy based on the source, but the media obviously doesn't care so long as they can predict D&G for Apple. Same with the stories wondering if the Nexus 7 will outsell the iPad because it supposedly is "sold out". Yet neither Google nor Asus are giving out hard sales figures. Sold out means nothing if you don't know how many were available for sale. And all Asus has said is they're selling about a million a month. OK, well Apple just announced they sold 3 million iPads in 3 days, so how on earth could the Nexus, or Kindle Fire for that matter, come close to beating that?!? More FUD.
I've never seen a claim that the Nexus 7 would outsell the Mini over the holidays. Where did you see such a ridiculous expectation? There's no single tablet that's going to outsell the iPad mini this quarter, including Apple's own iPad, unless they just can't produce many which is pretty darn unlikely.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
Of course this isn't newsworthy based on the source, but the media obviously doesn't care so long as they can predict D&G for Apple.
Any attempt to diminish the enthusiasm for Apple gear with dire predictions will be completely ineffectual as is evident by the massive crowds in the Apple Stores.
Just like the Republican's errant prediction of a landslide victory for Romney, the general public will vote however they want and this time it is with their wallets. They want iPad minis for the holidays apparently.
I think it's several factors, including a feeling in the market that Apple's best days are behind them. There is a sentiment, particularly with the lack of innovation coming from Apple, and the poor launch of the new maps app, that Apple isn't the same company that it was under Jobs before cancer began to limit his involvement. Cook simply lacks charisma...
Originally Posted by ruel24
…Apple isn't the same company that it was under Jobs before cancer began to limit his involvement.
So pre-2004, then.
Agreed, though, that Tim should leave the presenting to his fellow executives. Jony has a lot of heart whenever we see him, but I'm sure he gets dreadful stage fright so I doubt we'll ever see him on stage. That means Phil. And I would have said Forstall for the manic, obsessive half of that, but…
American's need to start demanding significant cuts in spending, or we will find ourselves so deep in a hole that the it will make peoples heads spin. You think living in Greece is fun right now? Our elected officials have been irresponsible, including this current president in borrowing another 6 trillion dollars in just 4 years.
Stop blaming ... and start cutting.
Maybe. The problem is that if a fund is required to have no more than, say, 10% of their shares in one stock, they usually don't have to meet that target until year end. So it's OK to have 15 or 20% of their money in AAPL as long as they're down to 10% by year end.
The conflict is that AAPL has been a huge winner for a long time. So they would want to keep their money in AAPL as long as possible - even if a massive sale cases the shares to drop by a few points. So, under normal circumstances, mutual funds hold their investments until mid-December and then do their shuffling.
The problem is that no one predicted the drop over the last 2 months. Once it starts to drop, the other companies may panic and say "I'll lock in the gains I have so far so I can get out before it tumbles further, so the selling frenzy feeds on itself.
Ultimately, that is the risk from having a stock that's so large and makes up such a large part of so many portfolios. When it starts to drop, people with lots of money in AAPL can panic whereas they are less likely to do so for a stock that's only a few percent of their holdings.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta
Maybe. The problem is that if a fund is required to have no more than, say, 10% of their shares in one stock, they usually don't have to meet that target until year end. So it's OK to have 15 or 20% of their money in AAPL as long as they're down to 10% by year end.
I'm not sure but I suspect it goes quarter by quarter so they would be adjusting every quarter but in this situation it is more like a double witching event because there are regular taxes to pay as well as the looming fiscal cliff so the motivation to sell may be greater at year's end, as you suggest. I still argue that it has little to do with Apple's performance or disingenuous bad press and more to do with worldwide economic indicators and national debt issues post election.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone
Just keep believing that there is no manipulation on Wall Street.
For me that thought is right up there with the Tooth Fairy.